Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The all-too-brief New Year polling respite has come to an end with the first Morgan face-to-face poll of the year, covering a sample of 934 from the regular weekend survey. It records only minor shifts on the last poll of last year, which combined the results of the weekends of December 10/11 and 17/18: Labor up half a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition up two to 45 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent. Where Labor achieved parity on the previous-election preference method in the last poll, this time the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5. When respondents were asked how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition’s lead was 54-46, up from 53.5-46.5. As always with Morgan over the past year, this result is strangely favourable to the Coalition. One should further query the utility of any poll conducted at this time of year – my intuition is that the absence of holiday-makers from their homes would bias such a poll towards Labor, although I don’t have any actual data to back that up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Re Newspoll

    In 2009 and 2010 they polled in mid January, 2011 they did not poll till early Feb. I reckon it is London to a brick they will not be polling this weekend (Tony on Holiday). So maybe 23rd or 24th Poll?

  6. [CTar1

    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    the Greens down 2.5 per cent

    Carbon tax done so less people care about ‘Green stuff’?
    ]

    Polling took place at the height of the Sea Shepard Goons boarding tghe Japanese Whaler.

  8. 51/ 48

    as William has indicated, at the bottom of page

    is ok,’ I think we should be happy with that.

    but gee aren’t we sick to death of polls, as i heard Wayne swan. say

  10. Thanks Frank – Got what you are saying and that would explain way the movement went to where it did..

    I accept that but also wonder if people are a bit “greened out for now. Your thought on this ??

    What My Say is getting at about Tassy forrests rings true ie don’t kill the industry and jobs – enough is enough.

  11. [CTar1

    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Frank – Got what you are saying and that would explain way the movement went to where it did..

    I accept that but also wonder if people are a bit “greened out for now. Your thought on this ??

    What My Say is getting at about Tassy forrests rings true ie don’t kill the industry and jobs – enough is enough.
    ]

    Five Words.

    John Howard CFMEU Standing Ovation

    That is all

  15. ruawake

    New increased family payments started this month for parents with students over 16 years of age. This should have some effect

  16. that standing ovation up set me to
    but it was a cry for help

    I see it in a different way now
    i believe the only thing that will save the greens ing term is a name change
    I have always thought it was a name, with no where to go eventualy

  17. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Where is Tony Abbott? Is he still on the Pacific Highway tying to get his B-Double license? #auspol
    1 hour ago

  18. ye but will the less aware actually know why
    ADDS ADDS!

    saying why, they are getting the
    rise
    I mentioned in a shop tne other day, that we where now retired

    I said very very loud about how and why pensions would go up
    .’to my amazement. a 20 something girl and. a 50 something lady
    had no idea about the compensation
    the younger being a unit student

  19. [The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink
    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Where is Tony Abbott? Is he still on the Pacific Highway tying to get his B-Double license? #auspol
    1 hour ago]
    as I replied on Twitter to you, we have enough problems on the Pacific Highway without Tony Abbott messing around up here

  21. The NBN Bootstrap continues:

    [4BC4BC Brisbane

    Shadow Minister for Communications & Broadband, Malcolm Turnbull just spoke to Drive RE: AMEX corporate cards for 1/10 NBN workers.

    3 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply]

  22. These polls are saying all is steady, on course and there is no drama.
    About the polls: remember this is POLL Bludger.

    AFV is good too. I am not getting a lot of posting done, more reading others contribution.

  23. Finns – Asus Prime in JB HiFi stores in Victoria today – 32 GB & 64 Gb, also in Wagga.

    Hopefully tomorrow or Monday for Sydney.

    If interested in this current batch you will need to see one of the stores pretty quick.

    I saw the Zen the other day – very nice, but I’m going with the Prime

  26. ruawake

    [How many of Turnbull’s staff have corporate cards? 100%?]
    Perhaps that is what he is critical of. There being “only” 10% 🙂

  27. [Finns – Asus Prime in JB HiFi stores in Victoria today – 32 GB & 64 Gb, also in Wagga.]

    Dave, thanks. will go and have a look. how much are they selling?

  28. [Will Tasmania become Australia’s very own failed island state?]

    BW, F&B FI has 2 options:

    1. We buy Tasmania and install our own proletariat dictatorship with My Say as its first Dictator.

    2. We turn Tasmania into something too big to fail

  30. The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    Dave, thanks. will go and have a look. how much are they selling?

    The 64 GB rrp is $893 but *some* will take $850. (about US prices plus GST and a bit of freight etc)

    Stores are only getting 6 – 8 each at this stage based on their past turnover etc.

    Good threads at Whirlpool –

    http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1828382&p=22
    http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1838935&p=32

  31. Corporate credit cards make eminent sense if there are a lot of transactions occurring. Of course the expenses must be justified and be accompanied by receipts.
    Once when working for the government I had some $78,000 on Amex for one month. Upon returning form the overseas trip, involving 15 people for whose reasonable expenses I was responsible according to previously agreed guidelines, I submitted the reconciliation along with receipts where able. My calculations suggested that I should pay around $100 of my own money for various odds and sods salted throughout the receipts.
    The Finance department told me that I would not have to pay because I had done such a responsible job on the presentation of the reconciliation.
    It’s simple really – agreed policy, agreed limits, discipline and honesty. That’s all that is needed.
    It’s not credit cards that are the problem, rather it is lax management and/or dishonest or hopeless users.

  32. William

    Have you any explanation why the difference between how people say they will vote and the last election allocation is trending much, much wider. If it were a one off, it can be ignored as you advise but I am beginning to wonder, since it is very entrenched and widening steadily.

  33. Driving home, ABC radio news 6pm, first words of the bulletin: “The Federal Opposition says ….” I nearly squeezed the steering wheel right through

  35. Hmmm

    [Consumer prices in China rose at their slowest pace for more than a year in December, official data shows.

    The National Bureau of Statistics says the consumer price index rose 4.1 per cent year-on-year in December compared with 4.2 per cent in November.

    The figures give Beijing leeway to further ease credit restrictions to spur economic growth.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-12/china-inflation-december/3769930

    Or this

    [Modest gains on the local share market this morning were erased after China’s consumer price index failed to fall below the 4 per cent mark sought by investors.

    The December inflation reading came in at 4.1 per cent, and watered down hopes of further stimulus measures.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-12/australian-share-market-close/3770000

    Well done ABC cover all the bases. 😛

  37. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    You have to admit that the US POTUS Primaries are the best and original Reality TV ever.
    5 seconds ago

  38. And a hot tip for ‘West Wing’ fans – you can get the DVDs from JB or BigW for about $20 at the moment (stocks were limited, so I had to buy some from each).

    I only need Series 7 now & my set is complete.

  41. docantk
    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 6:20 pm

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/01/12/morgan-face-to-face-54-46-to-coalition/comment-page-1/#comment-1124599

    [Driving home, ABC radio news 6pm, first words of the bulletin: “The Federal Opposition says ….” I nearly squeezed the steering wheel right through]

    They are trying to make a point, I think, see how far they can push the envelope…

    The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 6:36 pm

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/01/12/morgan-face-to-face-54-46-to-coalition/comment-page-1/#comment-1124606

    [Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Oh dear, another #IPA git on #TheDrum
    11 minutes ago]

    So far, their “Drum” appears to have had two significant milestones.

    1) Its inaugural edition on the opening night of ABCNews24
    2) Its first edition in the 6pm timeslot

    On BOTH occasions they had an IPA guy on there. Chris Berg on the first ABCNews24 edition, and Tim Wilson on the first 6pm edition.

    Again, I think Their ABC is trying to make a point…

  43. A friend that reads CM in qld , that Gillard and Bligh going to the Flood ceremony cost tax payers $20 MILLION ??????????????????? Have not seen anything about costs, but don’t click on Rupert’s rubbish. Sounds like a beat up.

  44. a few tings

    1. the thommo thing was the terror trying to wring the last drop from their failed gotcha

    suk eggs

    2 finns was inadvertantly sent a wiki key, I blame him if more cables are released

    😉

  45. DTR 32 I have two very unscientific theories about Maogan poll results.

    The first is the reason for the apparent discrepency between the respondant allocated preferences and those at the last election is that there is a material pool of people who can’t decide at this point who they want to preference or even vote for so the allocations mean zip at this point in time.

    The second is that of all the polls Morgan’s is the least reliable and should be taken with a grain of salt.

    I have no scientific basis for this and it is purely a gut feel.

    I still think we are stuck in a 55/54 to 46/44 range and can’t see it moving materially in any direction for a while yet.

  47. [Maybe the IPA sponsor the dumb er drum.]

    Maybe The Drum should accept direct sponsorship from Big Tobacco, Big Petroleum and your local climate denier institute and be done with it 😉

  48. [THE federal coalition has harpooned an Australian Greens proposal that would have required the government to send a patrol ship to monitor the Japanese whaling fleet.

    Greens Leader Bob Brown released a draft bill today that would have forced Labor to send a Customs or naval vessel to the Southern Ocean to monitor future whale hunts.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/coalition-harpoons-greens-whaling-bill/story-e6frf7jx-1226242933460

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