Queensland election guide

The Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat guide to the Queensland election is open for business. I also have an overall review of the situation at Crikey. New election-related points of interest:

• The LNP is looking for a new candidate for the must-win Gold Coast seat of Broadwater after Richard Towson today announced he would stand aside after blowing 0.07 during a random breath test on Friday night. The seat is held by Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft on a margin of 2.0 per cent.

• Labor’s candidate to succeed retiring Neil Roberts in the inner northern Brisbane seat of Nudgee, held on a margin of 14.3 per cent, Leanne Linard, a ministerial adviser to Roberts who has previously worked for Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser. A local resident and colleague of Roberts in the Labor Unity faction, Linard won preselection without opposition after Roberts announced his retirement early last month.

• Julie Attwood, who holds Mount Ommaney for Labor on a margin of 4.8 per cent, today announced she would bow out at the coming election, citing personal reasons.

• ReachTel has published yet another automated phone poll for the match of the round in Ashgrove, which shows little change on the early December poll with Campbell Newman leading Kate Jones about 53-47 if you preference flows from the 2009 election are applied (ReachTel’s respondent allocation “if you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose” question seems especially dubious to me given that it overlooks optional preferential voting). Apart from unrealistically low levels of support for the Greens (around 7 per cent compared with 12.4 per cent in 2009), ReachTel’s results have looked plausible in Ashgrove, but outlandish in many of the other seats it has targeted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

131 comments on “Queensland election guide”

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  1. In the electorate of Ashgrove you would assume the election campaign was in full swing. I think there were 100+ people at the central shopping area on Saturday plus cameras.

    LNP, ALP and Greens out in force. They are going to have to put up rope barriers once the rest of the parties show. 🙂

  2. Looks like an after Council elections, State elections. Bligh has confirmed flood enquiry will be released before an election will be called. It is released Feb 14th from memory.

  3. The sounds of LNP silence.

    [“An elected LNP Government will deliver what the Bligh Government has failed to deliver for the past six years – a new hospital for the Coast.”

    The statement did not answer the questions and Mr McArdle did not return follow-up calls.

    Treasurer Andrew Fraser said last week that the notion that there were somehow savings to harvest out of the project was either economically illiterate or deliberately misleading.

    “In the end there is no ability whatsoever to pull hundreds of millions of dollars out …without delivering the hospital in full as is planned,” Mr Fraser said.

    “I greatly encourage for the benefit of Coast residents that the LNP defines what that figure is.”

    Health Minister Geoff Wilson said the LNP had gone into hiding, hoping no one had noticed that their budget policy was a sham.

    “They can’t deliver the project sooner than the government when they are more than a year behind on finance assessments, tendering processes and design,” Mr Wilson said.

    “They have said they’d pull more than $400 million from the project, but won’t say how.”]


  4. LNP conversions on the way to the Commonwealth Games.

    [The state government currently has a sport minister and a tourism minister.

    Deputy Premier Andrew Fraser said the decision about whether to appoint a Commonwealth Games-specific minister was a matter for the Premier.

    Asked whether the LNP had pipped Labor at the post, Mr Fraser said the opposition had attempted to splice itself into the government’s success.

    “I wasn’t aware that it was part of the Commonwealth Games to have a race about who was the first to announce their minister,” he said.

    “Given that, the premier championed the bid.

    “It’s unambiguously an initiative of the government and I welcome the bi-partisan support of the LNP.

    “But … I do recall that it was Campbell Newman saying we shouldn’t build Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast.

    “I do recall John-Paul Langbroek saying we shouldn’t build the stadium on the Gold Coast.

    “And now of course both them have suddenly found God or a version of it in the Metricon Stadium.

    “Their support for the Commonwealth Games, I think, is a very welcomed conversion.”]


  5. An LNP Federal candidate response to the Redcliffe railway line was a beauty.

    [But in comments to morning radio that could prove controversial in the electorate, the LNP’s Petrie candidate Dean Teasdale slammed the Labor election pledge.

    ‘‘Now is not the right time when Labor is spending $100 million a day,’’ Mr Teasdale told ABC Radio this morning.

    ‘‘We are focused on paying back Labor’s debt. We’re not making big spending promises during the context of this election.’’

    However, state LNP transport spokeswoman Fiona Simpson said she supported the project, saying calls for the rail line had long fallen on deaf ears in the state Labor government.

    ‘‘It’s nice to see that Labor are late converts to what we knew could happen with federal funding,’’ Ms Simpson told brisbanetimes.com.au.

    She said she was not concerned the super election promise would hurt the LNP at the polls.

    ‘‘I just want this thing built,’’ Ms Simpson said.

    ‘‘We have led the debate, while Labor lied about the cost and the benefit of the project, but we knew it would stack up.’’

    It was hoped the 12.6 kilometre line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring would reduce congestion in one of the busiest corridors in the state.

    The state government scrapped plans to build the link six years ago after a study found it would be unviable.]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/lnp-candidate-blasts-redcliffe-rail-plans-20100727-10sxx.html#ixzz1kHUdSxQi


  6. LNP to remove waste levy;

    [THE PROPOSED State Government waste levy on local council rubbish dumps would be dumped under an LNP government, the Fraser Coast heard yesterday.

    Shadow Minister for Community Services and Housing Fiona Simpson attended a Waste Watch forum in Hervey Bay, and attacked the state government for their own wasteful practices.

    Ms Simpson said Queensland had “racked up an $85 billion debt with an interest bill of $595,000 per hour” under the present government, and the last thing the state needed was something like the proposed waste levy to create further red tape costs.

    The proposed levy will charge the Fraser Coast Regional Council $35 a tonne on commercial, industrial, construction and demolition waste, which council said would have to be passed on to ratepayers.]


  7. LNP worried about split conservative vote in Burnett.

    [Mr Bennett, who was the only candidate for preselection for Burnett on Saturday, will now seek to replace former LNP member and now Independent Rob Messenger at the next election, whenever that is.

    Mr Bennett, district manager for QBuild Bundaberg, said he was excited at the prospect of being elected.

    “We’re excited about trying to secure some real tangible progress for the area,” he said.

    He was also excited about the chance to get an LNP candidate back in the seat of Burnett to offer voters the opportunity to make some real changes.

    “I believe the seat of Burnett has a very bright future and offers not only a great lifestyle for residents, but plenty of opportunity for business and investment,” he said.

    Mr Bennett said the party had considered the issue of former LNP member Mr Messenger splitting the conservative vote, potentially allowing the Labor Party to take the seat.]

  8. Springwood bunfight over motorway upgrade:

    [Mr Newman said one of the issues Cr Grant will put up as his campaign was the issue of upgrading the M1.

    “If we win government we will be committed to getting it fixed,” he said.

    “In the coming months leading up to the state election we will make a definitive statement about that so we will let people know what we stand for.”

    The current State Member for Springwood, Barbara Stone, who has held the seat since 2001, said she was not worried about Cr Grant’s bid for her seat.

    “Cr Grant was very vocal when the Liberal National Party member from Beaudesert left his division to run for state, and he said the member was deserting his people,” she said.

    “I can’t see any difference in what he is doing now.”

    Ms Stone, who originally campaigned for the upgrade to the M1 said work had already begun.

    “Currently we have the road between Winnetts Road and Loganlea Road being done and construction is happening right now. I want to make sure we continue with the upgrade,” she said.]


  9. This LNP gobbledegook propably needs translating into something resembling plain English, beginning wit the dropping of the 20 year tiresome lie that ignores the existance of the Borbidge Government:

    [Shadow Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie said after 20 years in power, Labor was trying to claim kudos on the eve of an election for removing their bungled real estate red tape policy.

    “Queensland businesses have been struggling to cope with a mountain of red tape, and a minefield of more than 90,000 pages of regulation,” he said.

    “Labor’s red tape strangles business activity and destroys incentive and job creation.

    “The Labor Government is now backflipping, with the hated sustainability declaration in place since 1 January 2010.

    “The only way to rid the industry of unnecessary complications is to vote the incompetent Labor party out of office.

    “For six years industry leaders have warned this tired, 20 year old government about the red tape burden and the Bligh government has arrogantly ignored their cries for help until today.

    “While Labor has suddenly woken up to red tape concerns, the LNP was calling for the sustainability declaration to be dumped before it was even introduced.

    “Last November our team unveiled plans to streamline home sale contracts and warning statements and get rid of the sustainability declarations.”

    Mr Bleijie said Labor’s decision in the last State Budget to get rid of principal place of residence concessions had placed an added financial burden on home buyers and sellers.

    “Labor’s removal of these concessions effectively meant the introduction of a new stamp duty slug of up to $7000 on the family home,” he said.

    “The LNP will scrap Labor’s new $7000 stamp duty slug on the family home and cut the red tape that is financially punishing Queensland businesses.”]


  10. Oh Dear, sucking up to the Nationals:

    [Liberal National Party (LNP) leader Campbell Newman has nominated agriculture as the most important driver of the Queensland economy, in his last major speech to party faithful before a state poll.

    Mr Newman on Sunday burst into the party’s annual convention flanked by his wife Lisa and their two daughters to the sound of a new jingle.

    Revising his successful lord mayoral campaign song, it includes the lyrics “we can’t wait any longer, let’s get it together, let’s make it right, with a can-do team”.]

    Followed by his trademark cut and run from media scrutiny.

    [Mr Newman did not release any policy documents or speak to the media after the address in Brisbane.]


  11. A poodle has adopted a Labor funded railway line as her own, amazing stuff. What sort of a scam is this?

    [Ms Simpson said the Redcliffe rail could only commence after the North Pine River rail bridge was upgraded, adding a prospective $35 million to the project costs.
    The total net capital required for the project has been projected by the LNP to reach $500 million.
    Local candidates Bill Gollan (Redcliffe), Luke Mellers (Pine Rivers), Trevor Ruthenberg (Kallangur) and Peter Flannery (Murrumba) have worked closely with Ms Simpson on the project.]


  12. I thought all the LNP Brisbane seats won last time were because the LNP opposed the children’s hospital. Perhaps all those votes can come back to Labor now the LNP supports the hospital.

    [The LNP supports the construction of the Queensland Children’s Hospital, but we are not prepared to stand idly by while taxpayer’s money is being thrown around like confetti. And we will hold this government for its litany of broken promises.

    The government’s real purpose here is to create a new Foundation to replace the existing Royal Children’s Hospital Foundation with a new Labor-friendly Board.

    This will allow the government to undertake a rapid capital raising campaign and quarantine donations to pay for its raging mismanagement, incompetence and blow-outs.

    This Labor Bligh Government is so broke and desperate it has resorted to dipping its greedy fingers into the Hospital’s donation fund.

    Not satisfied with wasting tax payer’s money, the Bligh Government is now hitting a new low, trying to pinch hospital donations.

    Why not grab the Hospital Poor Box while you’re at it?]


  13. The standard of LNP repreentation over the Sunshine Coast hospital.

    [The five Sunshine Coast LNP MPs must declare whether or not they knew of and approved of Campbell Newman’s plans to cut funding to the Sunshine Coast University Hospital project, Treasurer Andrew Fraser said today from Parliament.

    In Question Time today Mr Fraser challenged Steve Dickson (Buderim), Fiona Simpson (Maroochydore), Mark McArdle (Caloundra), Jarrod Bleijie (Kawana) and Glen Elmes (Noosa) to stand up to Mr Newman’s plans that will destroy the Public Private Partnership and put at risk the hospital’s existence.

    “Campbell Newman told the Sunshine Coast Daily yesterday that he would cut $100 million from the Sunshine Coast University Hospital every year for four years – $400 million,” Mr Fraser said.

    “That would mean no private sector builder will come on board to take part on the project, putting at risk the project itself.

    “Not only would it mean less beds and less services on the Sunshine Coast, but it would mean thousands less construction jobs for local chippies, plumbers, labourers and construction workers.

    “The Sunshine Coast LNP MPs have rightly campaigned for a hospital for a long time.

    “Did they know Campbell Newman was planning to cut funding to the Hospital project?

    “If they endorsed his plan, it must be the first time ever local MPs have supported plans to cut funding to a hospital.

    “Campbell Newman and the Sunshine Coast LNP MPs have taken the people of the Sunshine Coast for granted.”]


  14. LNP bitch and whine about Caboolture hospital and plan to do nothing.

    [THE State Opposition is pushing for a speedy release of the master plan for the expansion of the Caboolture Hospital before detailing its plans.
    Federal Member for Longman Wyatt Roy (LNP) told an LNP-organised health forum in Caboolture on Thursday that the Caboolture region would need a 600-bed hospital by 2026 to cope with the region’s 200,000 population.
    But neither he, nor State Opposition health spokesman Mark McArdle or Federal Opposition health spokesman Peter Dutton, said what the LNP would do to boost the hospital’s capacity.
    But they did talk about giving more say to local health professionals and cutting waste.
    LNP candidate for Pumicestone Lisa France referred questions about the LNP’s plans to Mr McArdle who said they would not be released until closer to the state election.]


  15. Property dealing with as much financial accountability as the $5 Billion worth of LNP promises so far and all unfunded.

    [However, it has emerged a company owned by Mr Newman’s wife Lisa, her father Frank Monsour and brother Seb have a conditional contract over the string of properties on O’Keefe St, and have recently lodged a development application for an eight-storey, 91-unit development.

    The site has been purchased from 37-year-old businessman Liam Smith, with whom the family has been in business since at least January, on the condition the development is approved.

    Mr Newman’s office yesterday said he was unaware of the land deal until he released a statement of interests in October last year. They also insisted that a formal letter to start negotiations with Mr Smith for the sale of the property was not sent until March 31 two days after the council approval of the area plan.

    “As always, Mr Newman disclosed every interest that he and his wife had and was not aware that his brother-in-law would be pursuing negotiations to buy a property which are still ongoing,” Mr Newman’s office said in a statement.

    “Mr Newman has no involvement in the day-to-day affairs of Monsour family business interests.”

    However, Deputy Premier Andrew Fraser said Queenslanders would rightly question the deal.

    “Does Campbell Newman seriously expect Queenslanders to believe his family’s company innocently entered into negotiations for this multimillion-dollar property deal 48 hours after this lucrative rezoning was approved?” he said.

    Mr Smith could not be contacted yesterday.

    But council records show he won approval in November 2010 for the original neighbourhood plan to be redrawn so all his properties on O’Keefe St were included in proposed upzoning.
    The inclusion of all the properties, now being sold as a single parcel to Mr Newman’s in-laws, meant it had the space to qualify for an eight-storey rather than just a five-storey development.

    While Mr Smith was an executive of a company headquartered in the Philippines, it is unclear whether he is involved in the controversial church housed on his property.]


  16. A ticking financial timebomb.

    [LNP infrastructure plan late, unfunded and plagiarised

    Campbell Newman has today released a booklet on infrastructure a month late, without a single explanation of costing and half being stolen from a South East Queensland Councils document, Treasurer Andrew Fraser said.

    Campbell Newman was a financial disaster at BCC and today’s effort shows he has no idea how to fund any of his so-called plans,” Mr Fraser said.

    “If Campbell Newman handed this in at Uni he’d be failed and expelled for plagiarising half the document.

    “He sent Jeff Seeney on a 90-day tour, 126-days ago and all they’ve done is re-badge the SEQ Council of Mayors Infrastructure Plan and announce a couple committees.

    “Mr Newman clearly still has his head in Brisbane City Council, not across Queensland. He does not have what it takes to run the state.”

    Mr Fraser said the LNP leader’s track record spoke for itself in terms of delivering major infrastructure.

    “His first Private Public Partnership (PPP) was a financial disaster with the company now in receivership,” Mr Fraser said.

    “And his first tilt at a PPP at the state level was Sunshine Coast University Hospital and he missed the mark by $400 million.

    “Let’s not even mention the debacle that was, and continues to be city cycle.”

    Mr Fraser said Campbell Newman’s reckless financial management was on display with his confused statements on Cross River Rail.

    “As mayor he proclaimed, ‘I’d like to actually see this cross river rail project completely stopped right now’, now he wants to re-design it,” Mr Fraser said.

    “If he gets his hands on Cross River Rail it will blow-out in costs and end up with a poor design – just like King George Square.

    “You can’t trust Campbell Newman; he is an absolute policy flake and a ticking financial-time bomb.”]


  17. LNP medical travel increases totally unfunded.

    [Newman said the promise would cost $100 million over four years. The scheme’s current cost would rise from $45 million to $70 million a year.

    However, Mr Newman would not say how the LNP would fund the commitment, saying only that full costings would be issued before the next state election.

    And Mr Newman declined to say whether any savings could be found from within the Queensland Health budget, or whether he planned to trim government advertising spending.

    “Sadly this [patient subsidy] scheme has not kept up to pace with inflation and indeed the value of amount paid to patients had declined in real value by 50 per cent,’’ he said.

    “This is about letting people in rural and regional Queensland get a fair go.”

    Senior LNP frontbencher and Callide MP Jeff Seeney said some rural and regional Queenslanders did not travel to obtain the health care they needed because the personal cost had been too high.

    Health Minister Geoff Wilson attacked the unfunded promise, arguing Mr Newman’s failure to explain where the money was coming from meant current funding for other health services may be at risk.

    “One hundred million dollars is a lot of money to leave unanswered,” he said in a statement.

    Mr Wilson said the Bligh Government was delivering more services closer to home for regional Queensland, including the Sunshine Coast University Hospital and regional cancer services, so patients did not have to travel.]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-pledges-to-double-patient-subsidy-20111121-1nqbd.html#ixzz1kJV5NaiE

  18. So far $400 Million worth of funding announced by Newman for promises costing $5 Billion.
    Looks like his poor ecomic credentials from Brisbane City Council will just carry on at state level.

    [Deputy Premier and Treasurer Andrew Fraser has called on Campbell Newman to tell the people of Queensland when the LNP would get the budget back to surplus.

    On Friday Mr Fraser announced the Bligh Labor Government would bring the Budget back to surplus a year ahead of schedule in 2014-15, while on Sunday, Mr Newman announced yet more election spending without telling Queenslanders how he’d pay for it.

    “Campbell Newman said he’d release costings when the election campaign started. On Thursday, he said his campaign was underway, so he must immediately tell Queenslanders how he will pay for the more than $5 billion of unfunded promises he has already made,” Mr Fraser said.

    “He must also tell Queensland when he would bring the Budget to surplus and how he would get there.

    “Yesterday he spent more money on yet more promises, but again he’s squibbed it when it comes to saying how he’d pay for it.

    “It’s time for Mr Newman to come clean and stop trying to hoodwink the people of Queensland.”

    Mr Fraser said Mr Newman hadn’t changed from his reckless spending days at Brisbane City Council.

    “Campbell Newman charged in and spent recklessly at Brisbane City Council, driving up council rates for households by an average of 42% while he was Lord Mayor.

    “It’s obvious he intends to bring the same financial risks to any state government he should lead.

    “By his own admission, the LNP now has more than 40 election promises, all of which add up to well over $5 billion worth of extra spending.

    “If he disputes that, he should put his money where his mouth his and immediately tell the people of Queensland what projects he’ll cut and what jobs he’ll slash to pay for his promises.

    “It’s 2012 Mr Newman – Sir Joh’s ‘don’t you worry about that’ won’t cut it. It’s time to front up and have the courage to put your financial plans forward to the people of Queensland.”

    Mr Fraser the LNP had only identified one source of funding so far.

    “So far we’ve seen $400 million worth of cuts to the Sunshine Coast Hospital – that’s it.

    “A lot more hospital projects will have to be cut and vital services slashed to make up $5 billion.

    Mr Fraser said yesterday’s election promise to provide sporting club fee relief for families was all spin.

    “Only when you read the fine-print do you see that Mr Newman is restricting his promise to families on a Centrelink pension or Centrelink Healthcare Card.]


  19. [CAMPBELL Newman has attempted to deflect attention from his latest interests furore by accusing the Labor Party of releasing a “dirty” flyer implying he condones rape.

    The LNP leader this morning said the ALP was “like a wounded animal thrashing around in its death throes” and had dropped to a new low.

    “I have a wife, I have two daughters, I served my country in the Australian Army, I served my city and now I want to serve my state and frankly the suggestion that I condone rape is absolutely outrageous,” he said.

    But when asked what was asserted in the flyer, which he said was released in the key Ashgrove electorate last night and authorised by Labor assistant state secretary Jackie Trad, Mr Newman said he could not recall.]

    What a dill.

  20. A man has been eliminated from Queensland history who we all thought was a National Party Premier of Queensland. Tories in Queensland will pluck any number out of the air which serves to let them forget the last time the Nationals ruled Queensland. So distressing was the daily brawling with the Criminal Justice Commission, the Liberal Party, the unions, that they will jump over the rule of Borbidge 13 years ago and lie about twenty years of Labor rule , time for a change or any other madness that comes into their heads.


  21. The speech he gave last week, last month and last year was so good Newman read it again today.

    [A Liberal National Party government would put the Queensland treasurer in charge of a property and construction cabinet committee.

    LNP leader Campbell Newman on Tuesday outlined the opposition’s property and construction strategy at a Property Council of Australia breakfast in Brisbane.

    Council members thought they were going to be the first to hear the LNP’s policy, but instead Mr Newman read a speech much the same as the one he made at an LNP fundraising breakfast last week.]

    As is usual, he cut and run without giving any answers of value to Journalists.

    [But after the breakfast, Mr Newman could not tell reporters whether the move would result in the housing ministerial portfolio being scrapped.

    He would not be drawn on questions about whether additional land would be released to achieve his goal of creating more affordable housing.]

  22. I’d have thought Newman might have enough on his plate without fighting Federal issues as well. There is a massive job ahead for the LNP in paying for $5 Billion of unfunded election promises so far and proving both unable and unwilling to answer any questions about his plans.

    [We’ll also continue to oppose Labor’s carbon tax because it will cripple tourism operators, and we’ll fight Federal Labor’s pokie reforms as they will cut much needed funds from our surf clubs whose patrols keep countless lives safe on our golden beaches. Our National Parks policy will not only maintain the parks, but open them up for tourists and locals to enjoy.

    If we have more tourists, then we have more people staying on the Gold Coast, and their spending provides a vital boost to the local economy. This builds jobs, and more jobs gives business the confidence to make long term investment in the region. There is no doubt there is a massive task ahead of the LNP if it is voted into government. But it’s one that my team and I are fighting for every day.]


  23. There has been a lot of disregard for the importance of Local Government elections shown by the LNP demands for an election now.

    Andrew Bartlett @AndrewBartlett

    · Open

    @jessvanvonderen I think @theQldPremier should say election will be called after local council poll. 3 year term doesn’t expire until Apr 20
    In reply to Jessica van Vonderen
    5:50 PM – 24 Jan 12 via web · Details

  24. For some reason the links between the Qld National Party and the police have always been strange.

    CONTROVERSIAL LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan boasted to colleagues about calling one of Queensland’s top cops during an investigation into financial irregularities within the party.

    The Courier-Mail can reveal Mr O’Sullivan told fellow party officials last year that the pair had agreed on a plan to progress the complaint.

    The officer, Assistant Commissioner Mike Condon, yesterday confirmed he had spoken to Mr O’Sullivan at the outset of the investigation but insisted that the discussion had been “formal” and “in line with standard police procedures”.

    But the revelation will draw a further cloud over Mr O’Sullivan’s future. Senior MPs and party figures have already demanded his removal over his expletive-laden lambasting of a candidate.

    It was unclear yesterday whether Mr O’Sullivan would front this weekend’s state council meeting on the Gold Coast where business observers are being asked for up to $10,000 to gain access to MPs and officials.


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