Queensland election guide

The Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat guide to the Queensland election is open for business. I also have an overall review of the situation at Crikey. New election-related points of interest:

• The LNP is looking for a new candidate for the must-win Gold Coast seat of Broadwater after Richard Towson today announced he would stand aside after blowing 0.07 during a random breath test on Friday night. The seat is held by Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft on a margin of 2.0 per cent.

• Labor’s candidate to succeed retiring Neil Roberts in the inner northern Brisbane seat of Nudgee, held on a margin of 14.3 per cent, Leanne Linard, a ministerial adviser to Roberts who has previously worked for Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser. A local resident and colleague of Roberts in the Labor Unity faction, Linard won preselection without opposition after Roberts announced his retirement early last month.

• Julie Attwood, who holds Mount Ommaney for Labor on a margin of 4.8 per cent, today announced she would bow out at the coming election, citing personal reasons.

• ReachTel has published yet another automated phone poll for the match of the round in Ashgrove, which shows little change on the early December poll with Campbell Newman leading Kate Jones about 53-47 if you preference flows from the 2009 election are applied (ReachTel’s respondent allocation “if you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose” question seems especially dubious to me given that it overlooks optional preferential voting). Apart from unrealistically low levels of support for the Greens (around 7 per cent compared with 12.4 per cent in 2009), ReachTel’s results have looked plausible in Ashgrove, but outlandish in many of the other seats it has targeted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

131 comments on “Queensland election guide”

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  4. Sorry Found Ashgrove analysis.

    What may be interesting is that the Greens have established a high profile street front office directly opposite Kate Jones. Actually MORE visible than Newman’s office. Presumably they do NOT expect to actually win but are using it as a base for building up for a challenge in Brisbane or Ryan federally. The Greens in this area (Federal election too) are well organised and seem to have people out to do the traditional booths, signs and street stalls. This is a big shift since 2007 when they were barely visible.

  5. There was (yet another) reachtel poll the other day. Analysis may be interesting.

    Also Reach tel NOW calls mobile phones which potentially could be relevant.

  6. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/katter-hits-back-at-viral-emails-20120113-1pz57.html

    [Katter hits back at viral emails
    Ross Peake
    January 15, 2012

    Outspoken Independent Bob Katter is taking aim at extremist groups using his name to peddle racist material.

    “Numerous people who have forwarded these erroneous viral emails have been advised that they are in fact not correct and have been requested not to continue their circulation,” he told The Sunday Canberra Times.

    His guarded statement of complaint follows inquiries to his office about emails that purport to quote speeches he has made in Parliament.]
    More in the article

  8. DTT not sure how much faith you can have in those ReachTel Polls however it is interesting that, based on that January poll in Ashgrove, if anything Katter is pulling votes from Labor rather than the LNP.

    Could be a real messy election unless the LNP manage a clear mandate.

  15. William

    Just a comment on Reachtel
    I got two calls in the recent poll – one on my fixed line and a second on my mobile

  19. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/01/queensland-election-date.html

    [Antony Green’s Election Blog
    January 15, 2012

    Queensland Election Date Speculation

    Speculation that Queensland’s election date is about to be announced has been feeding upon itself for the last week.

    This speculation is built on a view that the election can’t be held in March because of the local government elections on 31 March.

    This view is not correct. The election can easily be held in March, maybe even on 24 March, three years to the weekend after the 2009 election.

    All the government has to do is use its power to defer the local government elections for two months.]

    More in the article

  21. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/01/qld-2012-election-polls-point-to-change-of-government.html

    [Antony Green’s Election Blog
    January 17, 2012

    QLD 2012 Election – Polls Point to Change of Government

    When Queensland Premier Anna Bligh fires the starters gun for the state election campaign it will be with the knowledge that her government is well behind in the opinion polls and facing defeat at the hands of Campbell Newman and the LNP.]
    More in the article

  22. The last QLD NewsPoll result was good for the LNP given what was thrown at Newman and the mistakes made by the LNP in the period leading up to the poll. It’s hard to see that anything has happened since to result in a swing either way. I think most QLD’ers are locked in and just waiting to have their say.

    The Mad Katters are out and about and look really weird in their red outfits. Seems a strange colour for conservatives.

  23. http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8404494/katter-unveils-inland-canal-plan-for-qld

    [Katter unveils inland canal plan for Qld
    16:32 AEDT Tue Jan 17 2012
    Tony Bartlett

    Bob Katter wants to carve a canal through inland Queensland so mines can export iron ore through the Gulf of Carpentaria.

    The independent federal MP, whose fledging Katter’s Australian Party is contesting the upcoming state election, said the canal would be an extension of the Albert River, which flows into the gulf near Burketown.]
    More in the article

  24. OMG Leroy perhaps he can get Gillard to fund it if he gives her his support federally.

    Would it have to be big enough to take those massive ore tankers:(

  25. David, I’m sure KAP will provide with plenty of entertainment in the election. Meanwhile, make sure you enroll to vote in January!

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/01/enrol-to-vote-now-queensland-local-government-elections.html

    [Antony Green’s Election Blog
    January 17, 2012
    Enrol to Vote Now – Queensland Local Government Elections

    While everyone is focusing on when the state election is going to be held, another important deadline is approaching on 31 January.

    That is the close of roll date for the Queensland local government elections set down for Saturday 31 March.

    Whenever the state election is held, and even if the local government elections are deferred, the date for the close of local government rolls remains the same. If you want to vote in the local government elections, you must be on the roll by 31 January.]
    More in the article. Also see…

    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/LG2012/Local_Government.html#Information_for_Electors

  28. The LNP job plan that never stood up to scrutiny for five minutes:

    [Campbell Newman’s jobs plan for Queensland will barely surpass the employment growth seen in the lean years of the global financial crisis and natural disasters.

    The Liberal National Party leader on Tuesday vowed to create 420,000 new jobs in his first two terms if he’s elected to run the state.

    Mr Newman told a fundraising breakfast in Brisbane his goal to reduce Queensland’s unemployment rate from 5.8 per cent to four per cent would not be easy to achieve.

    But economists say the target is anything but ambitious.

    “The promise is achievable, because it’s not really much different to what’s been happening,” AAP economist Garry Shilson-Josling said.

    He said creating 420,000 new jobs over six years, at the current level of employment, would result in an average growth rate of 2.78 per cent per annum.
    That rate was comparable to the job trends of the past six years, when economic conditions were poor due to the global financial crisis and Queensland was devastated by widespread floods and Cyclone Yasi.]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8404200/qld-labors-surplus-cut-after-oversight

  29. The LNP has a new candidate for Broadwater.

    KarenAndrewsMP Karen Andrews MP
    Congratulations to Cameron Caldwell, LNP Candidate for Broadwater
    33 minutes ago

  31. All the signs are that Campbell Newman dislikes media scrutiny – must make Anna Bligh consider a longer campaign. A key difference between Newman and NSW’s Barry O’Farrell as opposition leaders is their willingness to hold press conferences and answer media questions. Campbell Newman appears to always be furtively looking for the exit. I wonder if “cut-and-run” Campbell will stick!

  34. I am all locked and loaded and raring to go Leroy. With luck we will deliver a family double when we get the chance having dispatched Mr. O’Sullivan in August 2010.

  35. I seem to recall that Bligh made an election promise to create 100,000 jobs over three years and has struggled to deliver on that promise which appears to conflict the economists assertion regarding the Cambell promise of 420,000 jobs in two terms. Bligh’s promise if achieved is an average of 33,334pa while Newman’s promise is an average of 70,000pa.

    You can’t trust statistics I guess.

  36. Newman has certainly taken a firm lead in the rubbery figures stakes after his careful shredding of his own credibility yesterday. The man who sacked the rating agency who questioned Newman’s economic performance while he was Lord Mayor of Brisbane is still kicking own goals.

    [Meanwhile, Mr Newman has been accused of cutting jobs by ditching an intersection upgrade in Ashgrove, the electorate he hopes to win in his bid to be premier.

    According to today’s North West News, Mr Newman said during a bus tour of the electorate last week that he would halt the $90 million Samford Rd/Wardell St intersection.

    “It turns out his support for job creation is as fickle as his support for reducing traffic congestion,” Mr Fraser said.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/one-hours-work-figures-in-newmans-jobs-pledge/story-e6freoof-1226246892451

  37. DavidWH your job figures are getting more dodgy with every posted comment. Think about the population of Queensland, the number of people in the workforce and then try to avoid propaganda that tells us that 420,000 will get us to 4% unemployment. The LNP figures are just spin and hype that make no sense whatsoever.

  39. steve my point was that the economist in question asserted the Newman ambition was not much different than what is already happening whereas it is actually more than double what has been achieved in the past 3 years. Having said that it is an election so people have to be cautious of any claims made by politicians during election campaigns.

  41. One of the most bizzare things I have ever experienced was at my brothers wedding in Charelville a few years back. The entire bridal party disappeared from the reception and I had to track them down. There was the bride and her four attendants dressed to the hilt in their bridal gear setting at the pokies at the Charleville RSL.

  46. Oops JPL here, the other was a bit of light reading about the unaccountability of the “Cleveland Solution” so loved by LNP white shoe brigade types who think they have the voodoo economics to fool Brisbane commuters:

    [THE State Opposition is embroiled in its own Utegate controversy amid claims it doctored an email over the alleged approval of a $90,000 billboard advertising campaign for leader John-Paul Langbroek.

    The Courier-Mail revealed yesterday that taxpayers were set to be slugged for the billboards, which are being rolled out across Brisbane.

    The Government immediately accused the Oppostion of breaching guidelines because the ads personally promoted a leader and said the LNP had also failed to tell Ministerial Services Branch the money would be used in a $90,000 billboard campaign.

    Mr Langbroek initially told reporters they just had “to take my word” that the campaign had been approved. But his office later released copies of emails from MSB head Mike Goodman to Mr Langbroek’s chief-of-staff Paul Cormack with a subject heading “Advertising for Leader of the Opposition (approved for billboards)”.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/investigation-ordered-into-john-paul-langbroek-billboard-ads-approval/story-fna7dq6e-1225757561421

  48. I just love colourful LNP Treasurers they are such fun loving people:

    [A SECRETLY taped grilling of an LNP candidate has exposed the climate of fear and intimidation being executed by the party’s bosses ahead of the looming state election.

    The recording of the brutal two-hour interview with former Cairns candidate Paul Freebody, obtained by The Courier-Mail, is an unprecedented insight into how political parties tackle internal problems.

    Colourful LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan, already accused of employing intimidation tactics and holding dirt files on LNP MPs, is heard repeatedly swearing at Mr Freebody, who was dumped in August.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-boss-swore-at-candidate/story-e6freoof-1226172372710

  50. Newman would be some sort of hero if he could pull off those 420,000 jobs target.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/worst-employment-figures-since-1992-a-nasty-blow-for-queensland-and-anna-blighs-jobs-promise/story-fn7kjcme-1226248316454

    THE Bligh Government’s 100,000 jobs promise has suffered a brutal blow on the back of the worst employment performance for Australia since 1992.
    To meet her 2009 election promise, Premier Anna Bligh now has to find an additional 10,500 jobs before Queensland goes to the polls.
    A revision of official data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics adjusted previous monthly figures and created a bigger hole for the Government to fill.

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