Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. jes, George, they made a promise to fix VCAT, did they?

    That’s the equivalent of ‘world peace in our term of government’.


  2. Victoria that is the sad thing about the position I find myself in at present. I can actually envisage Abbott doing something that stupid to bring down the government.

    It’s not a comfortable situation.

  3. Wilkie didn’t get all that he wanted but he finds the reforms “remarkable” and wants to see them pass the HoR – that is, vote for them.

    Why on earth, other than a fit of pique, would he now make any move to jump ship?

    Which is better for him, a little of something rather than nothing of anything?

    Further, if he should jump ship and opt for supporting Abbott, he would be a dead man walking in parliament. If Abbott were able to pick up the baton he would not try to do a Gillard and run a hung parliament. He neither has the ability nor patience to try this.

    So where does that leave Wilkie?- powerless and friendless. And, after the likely election that Abbott would engineer – seatless and unemployed.

    Incidentally, this whole saga rates page 7 in the West, in a tiny paragraph.

  4. GG,
    You have not even begun to address the issues. You are hiding behind Ad Hominem attacks because you have no answers for the issues I have raised.

  5. [possum tweeted that Abbott had offered Wilkie a tunnel from Vic to Tas. A joke of course]

    Oh, I thought it was his own tunnel that Tone was offering.

  6. DavidWH @ 5599

    my say there is a story around that Abbott contacted Wilkie and offered him a VIC-TAS tunnel for his support. Seems like a really dumb reason to consider building a tunnel.

    What a crazy idea. No-one would ever make such an offer….oh wait… Hmmm Tone. 👿

  7. wilkie can bang on about how remarkable the reforms are. his actions feed the perception that nothing will be done, so he cant expect any credit for what happens

  8. Had to laugh listening to the red necks in shock jock land on 2GB.
    First they berated Gillard for her nasty pokies tax and wanted her to dump it.
    Now they berate her for betraying Wilkie and are pushing the she-can’t-be-trusted meme again!

  9. joe2 @ 5602

    jes, George, they made a promise to fix VCAT, did they?

    That’s the equivalent of ‘world peace in our term of government’.


    It was better than that.
    An unqualified promise to ‘fix the problems’.
    Presumably ALL problems within the term of the government.
    Worked with enough suckers.
    But will come back to bite them big time as they now ‘own’ each and every problem and its solution within this term.

  10. [Mick,

    Third prize is $1 million.
    Second prize is a cup of tea with Tony Abbott.

    Now, I know you might be thinking F*** Tony Abbott. But, that is first prize.]

    and all conslolation winners recieve an autographed picture of Sophie Mirrabella

  11. a study was done years ago I thin I was very young,
    its to rough its to long,
    would cost billions an
    and we love being an island,
    its part of the attraction living here
    we dont want a big population
    we just are happy as we are
    anyway abbott would well and truly gone before gheycut the ribbon

  12. [Ex ACT Chief Minister (Lib) Kate Carnell appointed new head of Beyond Blue ]

    Utterly ridiculous. it’s clear that she’s taken over simply because nobody else can get on with Kennett.

  13. I hope the tunnel thing makes international news like the unfortunate liner.

    kepp th tweets going
    I am off o the city I must tell every one I know


  14. I hope the tunnel thing makes international news like the unfortunate liner.

    kepp th tweets going
    I am off o the city I must tell every one I know


  15. For this who missed Mr Denmore yesterday. Worth a read

    [What do you think the pokies story is about?  According to the Australian press gallery, it’s a story about individual politicians and party politics. The prime minister they have dubbed ‘Jul-iar’ Gillard, incapable of keeping promises, has done it again – ripped up a deal, walked away from an agreement and put pure politics ahead of principle. It’s the story her opponent wants run. And , of course, the genuises of the press gallery dutifully report it (‘The Blame Game Begins’, says Seven News). ]

  16. Leroy @ 5611

    Ex ACT Chief Minister (Lib) Kate Carnell appointed new head of Beyond Blue

    A fitting appointment.
    A discredited head for a discredited organisation.

  17. david, think of the escaltion
    dear o. me the BER of it in parliament in 100 years time
    mr presedent, the cost is now. 200 billion

    lol. is this a joke
    well obviously wilkie thinks it is or he would of kept quite

  18. Sprocket

    [just looking at the UN Convention on Law of the Sea – referred to this morning by Admiral Barrie as being primamry in all ship commander’s minds:………………………

    I believe Australia is a signatory to this convention, and as much as these things can be, it is binding. Tony Abbott is promoting an illegal act in instructing the Navy to tow boats out to sea, and the (real) Admiral has challenged this.]

    Admiral Chris Barrie was the Chief of Defence force with regards to the children overboard saga and Tony Abbott was a member of the lying filth that pushed the lie to garner votes.

    I believe he was given the option of saying the children were being thrown overboard or tender his resignation. At the time he chose the former and i believe he later on regretted not having stood his ground.

    On the turn back the boats issue Chris Barrie, along with lots of other sailors, has a close up knowledge of what may or may not happen. He was a ships crew during the Indonesian confrontation of Malaysia during the sixties.

    Having been there and also being a junior officer he would have a first hand knowledge of what happened in places like the Malacca Straits where the Indonesians were trying to cross to Malaya in 14 foot tinnies under cover of darkness.

    Each of the SEATO ships had a minimum of one Malayan Policeman and one interpreter on board and the ships operated in a black out situation.

    Any other craft in the area picked up on radar, were then intercepted, called alongside and the occupants were brought on board for identification and questioning.

    This almost always was a courteous and humane process.

    During one of these interceptions a Royal Navy minesweeper called a boat alongside and before the occupants of the boat went aboard the minesweeper, one of the occupants activated a grenade and threw it on board the minesweeper. Whether he aimed for it or not the grenade went down the funnel and exploded in the engine room killing two sailors.

    After that scenario the further interceptions involved calling the boat to halt at a distance, that a thrown grenade could not reach the vessel, and the occupants were asked to jump in and swim to the ship and climb a ladder where they were unceremoniously hauled on board, strip searched and interrogated.

    Fast forward to the village idiot threatening to tow back the boats and without stretching ones imagination very hard, one can easily visualise how people could easily be killed from both sides of the equation.

    Lets say a boat is intercepted and the engine is sabotaged. The AS are transferred to the RAN ship then personell are sent to investigate/repair the boat so that it can be turned back. The only persons on board are ours, the AS don’t want to be turned round so they have also booby trapped the boat with explosives and before a full search can be done the booby trap is set off with a small hand held walkie talkie and our guys were the only ones on board at the time.

    I will be on Chris Barries side on this occasion and also agree that Greg Barns, Barrister and Chris Murphy, lawyer. have it right as well.

    [BarnsGreg Greg Barns
    #auspol Liberals Scott Morrison follows his leader on the illegal plan to turn back boats. It is simply state sanctioned murder.
    22 Jan Favorite Retweet Reply]

    [chrismurphys chris murphy
    Australia Murder Inc?God’s gift TonyAbbott 2 ‘turn back all boats’.Floundering,leaking,full of families.Makes killers of us all #auspol]

  19. And Bernard K on the Crikey site having another “stick it into Julia” rant.

    Begrudgingly, admits the pokie move by the PM might be good politics, but comes out with the gem that Labor should have tried a Wilkie-content bill in the House – to “test” the waters is the gist of his point.

    We all know what the MSM would make of this – nothing but a lengthy bashing of “government failure” in the likelihood of the bill not getting up (never mind the dozens of bills put through to date) with Abbott coming out with his inevitable “Give me the keys of the lodge” whinge.

    BK’s guff is not better than that which comes from the OO, where I am sure, he would be more at home.

  20. [bemused

    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    Socrates @ 5328
    I think you meant Craig Thomson, not Andrew Thompson.

    Craig Thomson should long ago have received a blanket instruction to STFU and keep a low profile.

    Thank you Tony Abbott’s PR manager.

    It’s people like you who help The LIbs.

  21. [BH

    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    Frank, you owe both MTBW and Bobalot an apology.

    I go along with that.

    Amnd pigs will fly.

    In Fact Bobalot delibnerately came to my blof to TROLL and got caught out immediately.’

    And the fact that he cam,e here just as MTBW was exposed proves it beyond ANY doubt –

    As for IP addresses – has anyone heard of using VPN’s or multiple internet accounts ??

  22. [The machines can’t all be changed over quickly and the PC gave a 2016 as a reasonable starting date. I like the idea of all new machines having to be ‘precommitment’ machines. That is a big step forward and a start.]

    I agree. As soon as I heard it I was impressed. Yet the media seems to have completely overlooked it.

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