Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. My say @ 5541

    David. wh
    wow. we agree, are u now on the middle left, are we a good lot here
    and now u know great labor people with passion. for the good of all

    It’s all his mums doing. Nothing like a good mum to set a boy straight. 😀

  2. [DavidWH
    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    my say I am really very easy to get along with. Just ask Mick Collins.]

    😀

  3. puff. idont usually disagree.
    but wilkiw had his chance in the sunshine to keep going he chose to grandstand.

    also ordinary people are a little selfish they hear new things on say dental and health and they will move o.n very quickly

    a lot of labor people out here. where saying nanny state.

  4. I do not underestimate what the clubs lobby is doing in NSW, but the sooner the legislation is passed and people find out that their recreational playing is not affected, the sooner the clubs campaign will lost its effectiveness.

  7. my goodness is Mick a right
    with. a name like that i thought he was a left footer I. both senses of the word

    lol
    david I am still hoping u. vote,labor federally
    so the future of your family is brighter

  9. [Mick,

    Bugger the tunnel of love. I want the Gambling franchise on the pit stop half way along.]

    Of course it stands that the Tunnel will be walled with Pokies, 1$ per spin,minimum bet, unlimited maximum, and the Jackpot is an Intimate evening with Messers Abbott and Wilke

  10. The key point that Admiral Barrie made this morning was that the boats being used for UA’s now are only meant to go one way so it’s likely very few could be towed back or turned around. He also pointed out that our navy officers would adhere to international law over an inappropriate government order and I hope he is correct with that. Having said that Abbott’s chest thumping will be swallowed up by many people.

  12. Gary

    [Now everything hinges on a trial, and no matter the results of that trial, the clubs lobby will claim it as a failure, and what do you think their politicians will say?

    How do you overcome facts and figures?]
    Ask the climate change opponents and the Billionaires Liberation Front .They successfully dispensed with with the need for such trifles as facts 🙁

  13. My Say,
    [my goodness is Mick a right
    with. a name like that i thought he was a left footer I. both senses of the word

    lol
    david I am still hoping u. vote,labor federally
    so the future of your family is brighter]

    I’m a Lefty, don’t worry.

  14. Well, another thing the Vic Liberals have “fixed” – just received a letter that we’re off to VCAT to support our neighbours who have dutifully gone through the objection process over an inappropriate redevelopment of a single dwelling, have many objectors on board, persuaded Council to reject the third storey (in amongst single storey houses), and now the owner of the application is taking it all to VCAT, where, after paying for the privilege, we more than likely will fail. What a wonderful system.

  15. my say Mick is as left as they come however we have known each other for a long time although often on opposite sides of the fence. Despite the differences we have managed to get on OK.

  16. [I do not underestimate what the clubs lobby is doing in NSW, but the sooner the legislation is passed and people find out that their recreational playing is not affected, the sooner the clubs campaign will lost its effectiveness.]
    The problem with that logic is time itself. To do that you’d need more than 12 months. Besides, Wilkie himself was happy with s trial first after the legislation was past. How could that be done with the legislation in place and the results tabulated before the next election? The scare camapign would be humungus from now to the next election if the legislation to go ahead full bore had been past this year.

  17. Mick,

    Third prize is $1 million.
    Second prize is a cup of tea with Tony Abbott.

    Now, I know you might be thinking F*** Tony Abbott. But, that is first prize.

  18. Puff 5502

    While I’m in agreement with your overall sentiments re poker machines, and also think Wilkie is a good guy, one must also take note of the fact that he has somewhat overcooked his argument.

    Take, for instance, his assertion that there are good people on the opposition’s side who are sympathetic to his cause – by inference he was arguing in his recent presser that some might well vote in favour of his scheme, should the government present it to the parliament. Here, Wilkie really went too far, and so his credibility is diminished. I’m sure you would agree that there is almost no likelihood that ANY opposition member would vote contrary to party lines on this issue.

    Thus, Gillard’s argument that the numbers are not there is a valid one – assuming we take her at her word that she has consulted with the cross bench members. And not to do this would be to indulge in cynicism.

    It boils down to this – either SOME progress is made with a degree of certainty, or NO progress is made due to proceeding with a crash-through policy.

    Underlying all of this are the electoral implications, which justify in my opinion the government’s more pragmatic approach. Do you really think that any radical imposition on the gambling lobby would not be overturned by a coalition government? If you accept that, then you must also agree that it is imperative that the government be returned if any further gambling reform is to be built on the current initiatives.

    Why Wilkie can’t see this is beyond me.

  20. [Ask the climate change opponents and the Billionaires Liberation Front .They successfully dispensed with with the need for such trifles as facts]
    Spot on. It has worked well, not, for the government so far hasn’t it re CC but then the government has given itself plenty of time on that one, time they don’t have in regards to pokie reform.

  21. DavidWH

    [He also pointed out that our navy officers would adhere to international law over an inappropriate government order and I hope he is correct with that. ]
    I am sure he is correct.He was around at the time when Howard was pushing for push backs and wanting to legislate for naval personnel to be indemnified for breaches of the Law of the Sea. There were a number of reports at the time that the navy people were very bolshie about it. JWH backed off.

  22. Victoria

    ones keeps In who. reads this blog any one who supports the pm I am loyal to
    after that, no.

    well sort of, but once he started neglecting denison, here in our own home no.
    and telling us money should not be spent on football coming here
    in the confines of our own home, but on the blog wel one has to see the biggerpicture I will always protect the party I love,

    I am a tasmania first, and the gst, suggestion was not good,
    .

  23. [Mr Wilkie conceded the reforms were still remarkable and would make a difference to problem gambling.]

    Maybe he should be called “Two Bob Each Way” Wilkie.

  27. poroti I have always had faith that generally with few exceptions our armed services personnel act in a proper way and I doubt they would let cheap politics change that.

  30. my say,

    I appreciate that people will say things like that.

    When people start using terms like ‘nanny state’ it is an indication they need to get of their backsides and look into the facts of the matters under discussion. They may still come to a decision to oppose the issue but at least it would not be under the guise of a vacuous platitude.

  31. my say @ 5562

    bemused,
    where the is light there is hope
    re david, now I have added Mick
    lol

    Right, I will join you on the case.
    I am getting really chuffed about the progress with DavidWH.
    I can’t even start an argument with him now 😀

  32. Ash gardiner reporting that Michael Capel has resigned as Baillieu’s COS. Huge blow to the faltering Lib Govt in Victoria.

  34. george, that is a bit harsh @5565. Though Libs in Vic are terrible. Those VCAT fights about housing plans are always on, regardless of government. Developers etc do that all the time.

    Be optimistic because you will have a paid council rep working for you to take up the fight. Apart from your objectors best efforts, as well.

  35. [Those VCAT fights about housing plans are always on, regardless of government. Developers etc do that all the time.]

    joe2, I thought the Libs said they were going to “fix it” 😉 damn, I shouldn’t have believed the pre-election promises!

  37. bemused I think I could mention a few subjects we could disagree on however they are not the current discussions. The carbon legislation and private health care are two I am sure we could have fun with. Swannie is probably another.

    My say is half right. I would struggle to vote for Abbott at this time. He just doesn’t seem to stand for anything of substance so that is a dilemma for a thinking Liberal voter.

  39. [Underlying all of this are the electoral implications, which justify in my opinion the government’s more pragmatic approach. Do you really think that any radical imposition on the gambling lobby would not be overturned by a coalition government? If you accept that, then you must also agree that it is imperative that the government be returned if any further gambling reform is to be built on the current initiatives.

    Why Wilkie can’t see this is beyond me.]

    Puff – Dedalus makes pertinent points. Wilkie was pushed hard by Xenophon on this. X could never convince the LNP to do anything even tho he really is one of them. He has used Wilkie and if Wilkie had listened to Windsor initially he would not have given an ultimatum so quickly. It’s left him with no room to move.

    The machines can’t all be changed over quickly and the PC gave a 2016 as a reasonable starting date. I like the idea of all new machines having to be ‘precommitment’ machines. That is a big step forward and a start.

    Perhaps the Tim Costello & GetUP group could spend their money putting more people into Clubs to head off the problem gamblers until the machines are changed instead of using it to advertise against the government.

    DavidWH – it was a pleasure to listen to Chris Barry this morning – sensible and reasonable.

  40. DavidWH @ 5588

    thinking Liberal

    Never met one. Do they exist?

    bemused I think I could mention a few subjects we could disagree on however they are not the current discussions. The carbon legislation and private health care are two I am sure we could have fun with. Swannie is probably another.

    Bring it on!

  43. BH 5529, Victoria 5553

    I agree with your point that the anti-gambling people (Costello etc) have come in a bit late on this – I’d add Getup as well.

    Maybe a long term strategy against poker machines would be to make it socially unacceptable. That worked for cigarettes.

    My reasoning is this: When you go into clubs, you mainly see middle-aged working-class people playing these machines. This is not to denigrate such people on the basis of their age or social standing. I am one of them. They are the salt of the earth.

    But when it comes to the subject of gambling they are stupid. It is a fact that they are being exploited by avaricious twits who have left their own class and joined the piranhas of capitalism. And these evil twits are NOT stupid. They own the expensive cars in the directors’ parking lot. They live in the best houses in the best streets in the suburbs that surround their evil palaces of spinning wheels and horrible blinking lights.

    Do young, with-it, smart people sit like mindless drones feeding the maws of these painted boxes? Generally speaking they do not.

    The biggest favour we can do for poker machine players is to let them know we think they are dills.

  44. All in good time bemused. I think private health care will become a hot topic this year and the carbon tax debate will hot up again around 1st july.

  48. my say there is a story around that Abbott contacted Wilkie and offered him a VIC-TAS tunnel for his support. Seems like a really dumb reason to consider building a tunnel.

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