Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Yes, it is about Wilkie at the moment, as it should be. Who else has actually tried to do something about electronic gaming machines? He has every right to be disappointed as I am. The level of EGMs in this country is an international disgrace and it takes an independent to try to do something about it.

    NSW was built on self interest and corruption from the days of the Rum Corps and not much has changed. The clubs lobby, particularly from that state, are determined to corrupt our whole nation and are getting close to achieving their aim.

    Instead of vilifying Wilkie, it would be better for our national interest to pressure the ALP and LNP to support his proposals and to support the pro-reform groups.

  2. this tweet from Possum

    [Offered to build a Victoria to Tasmania tunnel RT @Simon_Cullen: Wilkie says Abbott rang him shortly after he withdrew support for Labor]

  5. Puff

    The coalition under the leadership of Abbott, did not even find the time to meet with Wilkie to garner support for pokie reforms. But of course since Wilkie withdrew his suport for the govt because the reforms offered we not good enough, Abbott calls him. Now tell me another way of getting things done?

  7. [Obviously Wilkie failed to get him on board.]

    Without a doubt.

    Interesting given there are no pokies in Crook’s electorate, and therefore no industry or voters he could get offside.

  10. [Who else has actually tried to do something about electronic gaming machines?]

    Well, the Government – it will be introducing legislation that is likely to become law.

  11. Lynchpin

    Wilkie is just spinning furiously, trying to grab as much attention as he can.

    When you look at the agreement between Wilkie and the PM you see it has been honoured. One clause gets rejected simply because it’s just not going to work so Wilkie decides to bully the PM into giving him exactly what he wanted. Anyone but Wilkie would have simply agreed and then made a nice speech about the need to compromise to get what he wanted. Not the bully though. It’s all about him and his ego. I don’t know about loose cannon, spent force might be more like it.

  12. Wilkie says he will still meet regularly with the PM… just not weekly.

    Doesn’t like a woman who stands up to him?

  13. [soc is one of the few here who altho not always right, still provides food for thought]

    how true, Gus – he always makes me start thinking laterally, dammit, altho usually after he’s corrected me 🙂

  14. Bemused

    Clearly Socrates must by the blogger what his name that mistook Craig for Andrew

    Clearly a troll for Katter’s party 🙂

  15. leone

    I have said that Wilkie is entitled to withdraw support for the govt, but he Should have left it a that. Now it looks like he is grandstanding.

  16. Puff,

    Instead of vilifying Wilkie, it would be better for our national interest to pressure the ALP and LNP to support his proposals and to support the pro-reform groups.

    So it doesn’t matter what Oakeshott, Windsor, Katter & Crooke thought? The only reason that some of their votes would not be essential is if the Coalition says “Yes”.

    They weren’t going to do that.

    Wilkie paid no attention to the views of MPs who have every bit as much right to vote however they saw fit, and whose votes were needed for his plan.

    If I have to choose between believing Wilkie or Windsor & Oakeshott on this, then I go for Windsor’s version like a shot.

    I’d say that Wilkie deserves a bit of opprobrium, and that he has not yet received sufficient.

  17. Problem for Wilkie now I guess is that the more he criticises the Govt the more it looks like he has failed in his mission. The electorate will judge him on that to his detriment. Perhaps he would have been better advised to accept the compromise.

  18. Wilkie may just want to consider what life under an Abbott government will be like. His reforms will go west as fast as the speed of light.

  19. [Problem for Wilkie now I guess is that the more he criticises the Govt the more it looks like he has failed in his mission. The electorate will judge him on that to his detriment. Perhaps he would have been better advised to accept the compromise.]
    Wilkie had nowhere to go after trying to bully the government into submission. He had to walk. I’m not sure it has done him any good to be honest.

  20. It wasn’t the govts responsibility to get the other indies on board wrrt to the pokies reform. It was Wilkie’s issue it was therefore up to him to get them on board.
    He didn’t and he failed.

  21. [Gaffhook – hehe. Time to crank up PS for the new year?]
    You are evil George in a kinda exceptional way.
    Twitter will go bonkers with something like that.

  22. Puffy,

    You’re a wowser and I say that from the heart of my bottom barrel.

    Most people are not Pokies addicts. Most people can decide what they spend their entertainment dollar on without the handwringing and nagging of those that enjoy telling people what to do.

    The Government’s gambling reforms are not about abolishing Pokies, they are simply about addressing a specfic problem; that being Problem gamblers. My observation is that plenty of prudes, gambling abolitionsits and other whiners are now using this issue to promote their own extremist points of view.

    Sure you can argue the Clubs are evil, that the reforms don’t go far enough etc.etc. However, none of that is particcularly relevant to the issue at hand. Vent to your hearts content. But ,don’t expect adults to take you eriously.

  23. [victoria
    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 11:30 am | Permalink
    With the stroke of a pen, the wealth of Gina Rinehart jumped by about $10 billion, propelling Australia’s richest individual closer to the title of the world’s richest woman.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/rineharts-wealth-doubles-in-a-week-20120123-1qczm.html%5D

    Which after reading the Good weekend article in Fairfax on her terrifies me. But doubt if it will bring her happiness with 3 out of 4 children fighting her.

  24. victoria:

    On censures and suspension of SOs, I reckon you’re right: he always votes with LNP, and he would likely do so for no-confidence motions.

  27. daretotread @ 5515

    Bemused

    Clearly Socrates must by the blogger what his name that mistook Craig for Andrew

    Clearly a troll for Katter’s party

    Better get Inspector Clouseau Frank onto the case.

  28. Puff – you live in SA. It’s a totally different game over there than in NSW and I’ve seen both. The Clubs here wield enormous power in the smaller communities because it is often the only place to go to.

    We had a meeting in one recently and it is wall to wall (front to back door) full of huge posters against the Govt. At every table, on every wall surface, on the glass doors, windows there are flyers and posters, even the coasters are printed with anti Labor stuff. I’m told that all other Clubs are the same and we have 10 within easy reach.

    The nearest Labor/Independent (inc. Oakeshott) pollie is lamblasted in each Club.

    I don’t play the pokies because I find it outright boring but most people I know do play them for fun with just a few dollars but they fervently believe that the little bit of fun they have is going to be taken away. Nothing convinces them otherwise because the Club has it emblazoned everywhere.

    Our local Pub is not as bad but still has posters and flyers everywhere. It’s a shame that the Tim Costello group was not prepared to start fighting earlier.

  29. [Mrs_TedB Mrs Ted Baillieu
    Happy Year of the Dragon, especially to Bronwyn Bishop for whom it must be particularly auspicious! #auspol]

  30. confessions

    Crook’s vote for anything the govt does is not to be expected. I gather he agreed with the flood levy, because most of the areas affected by the floods in Qld were National seats. On everything else, he has not supported the govt.
    Katter is unreliable to say the least. That left Oakie and Windsor, who had made it clear to Wilkie throughout the duration that they were ambivalent about his proposals. So what in dog’s name did Wilkie expect?

  31. [this tweet from Possum

    Offered to build a Victoria to Tasmania tunnel RT @Simon_Cullen: Wilkie says Abbott rang him shortly after he withdrew support for Labor]

    Vic, are we to believe from this that Tony is offering to dig a bass strait tunnel for Mr Wilkes pleasure ?

  32. BH

    Yes Tim Costello and his partners should have started a campaign months ago. He did say the other day that NSW Gambling is the belly of the beast. So it does make sense that Windsor and Oakie were not comfortable with Wilkie’s position.

  33. victoria:

    Crook voted for the flood levy because at the time there were floods in his electorate.

    Agree with you that the govt can and should never expect him to vote with them on its bills.

  34. Abbott is naive negotiating with Wilkie and making him grand promises. Wilkie will only use that to embarrass Abbott. Wilkie will have his period of anger but in the end he will continue to support the government when it counts. There is too much bad blood between Wilke and the Liberals for it to be any other way.

    Labor are in a much better position now this issue is being settled.

  35. K
    Yes, I should have added the independents to that list.

    The fact that the Independents did not support Wilke is disappointing and shows that the clubs’ lobby is very formidable.

    It is not Wilkie who deserves the opprobrium. It is the collective failure of our parliament to move on a social illness, due to the influence of vested interests. Pre-commitment or $1 bet limits could have been rolled out in the life of this government, as they should be if our representatives were doing their jobs.

    Now everything hinges on a trial, and no matter the results of that trial, the clubs lobby will claim it as a failure, and what do you think their politicians will say?

  36. when gary. makes a comment it is very measured,

    I always thank him for his wisdom,

    and thought through comments, like doyley,
    both are always spot on

    I agree totally. with Gary

    having this argy bargy with the clubs would hide new good legislation
    if wilkie really wanted this to work he would of continued on
    let’s see what his next crusade is.

  37. [Now everything hinges on a trial, and no matter the results of that trial, the clubs lobby will claim it as a failure, and what do you think their politicians will say?]
    How do you overcome facts and figures?

  39. I can see it now. November 2013 and it’s a hung parliament. Tony Abbott gets in with Wilkie’s support after signing an agreement with him. Fun and games begin.

  40. David. wh
    wow. we agree, are u now on the middle left, are we a good lot here
    and now u know great labor people with passion. for the good of all

  41. [DavidWH
    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is naive negotiating with Wilkie and making him grand promises. Wilkie will only use that to embarrass Abbott. Wilkie will have his period of anger but in the end he will continue to support the government when it counts. There is too much bad blood between Wilke and the Liberals for it to be any other way.

    Labor are in a much better position now this issue is being settled.]

    Damn, I wanna see Tony build Wilke his Tunnel of Lurv ;D

  42. GG @ 5523

    Puffy,

    You’re a wowser and I say that from the heart of my bottom barrel.

    I thought Puff was a bit on the weak side on this. I guess that makes me an even worse wowser.

  46. The government is getting pokie figures from Queanbeyan at the moment. They want to check leakage when the trial begins.

    The greater the leakage, the greater the addiction I would have thought. Be interesting to see the “performance indicators.”

  47. GG
    That barrell bottom is getting thin, soon you will be digging down into a hole you can’t get out of. Calling me names instead of addressing the very serious issues I have raised, backed by science by the way, puts you in the same camp as the climate change deniers.

    I hope you enjoy their company.

  48. just looking at the UN Convention on Law of the Sea – referred to this morning by Admiral Barrie as being primamry in all ship commander’s minds:

    [Article 98
    Duty to render assistance
    1. Every State shall require the master of a ship flying its flag, in so far
    as he can do so without serious danger to the ship, the crew or the passengers:
    (a) to render assistance to any person found at sea in danger of
    being lost;
    (b) to proceed with all possible speed to the rescue of persons in
    distress, if informed of their need of assistance, in so far as such
    action may reasonably be expected of him;]

    I believe Australia is a signatory to this convention, and as much as these things can be, it is binding. Tony Abbott is promoting an illegal act in instructing the Navy to tow boats out to sea, and the (real) Admiral has challenged this.

  50. victoria @ 5500

    That’s the stuff of politics regardless of the way we’d like it to be. The question for the Govt would be how much would he cost and if they could give him something that would not cause them a problem later …

    Grubby but realistic.

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