Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The all-too-brief New Year polling respite has come to an end with the first Morgan face-to-face poll of the year, covering a sample of 934 from the regular weekend survey. It records only minor shifts on the last poll of last year, which combined the results of the weekends of December 10/11 and 17/18: Labor up half a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition up two to 45 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent. Where Labor achieved parity on the previous-election preference method in the last poll, this time the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5. When respondents were asked how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition’s lead was 54-46, up from 53.5-46.5. As always with Morgan over the past year, this result is strangely favourable to the Coalition. One should further query the utility of any poll conducted at this time of year – my intuition is that the absence of holiday-makers from their homes would bias such a poll towards Labor, although I don’t have any actual data to back that up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Jenauthor is back online and I have advised her via Facebook about Getup basically killing her Campaign – which in’t even on their Campaigns page anyone got the lionk to their new way of getting campaigns up ?

  2. [Where is Tony Abbott? Is he still on the Pacific Highway tying to get his B-Double license?]

    I hope not, us coast people don’t want him, we have enough problems with highway idiots over the holidays, we don’t want Truckwit Abbott here as well.

    That was last week anyway. I’d say Abbott is probably back in Melbourne by now, that seems to be his new home. You can bet he’s anywhere but at home in his electorate.

  3. [“If the opposition takes the bill, and I am very happy to talk about amendments or changes that they may wish to make, it certainly will pass the Senate,” Senator Brown told reporters in Hobart.]

    Sorry Bobby B wrong as usual. Stick to trees, whales are a bit too complex for an old dodderer.

  4. The Japanese whalers can tell blatant untruths about the “scientific outcomes” of their whaling, and keep a straight face while they do it.
    Why can’t Australia patrol their marine zones with equal sangfroid.
    If they happen to be in the same area as the whalers most of the time – what a coincidence!

  5. The Japanese Whalers are in the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary. A sanctuary set up by the IWC. The Japanese are conducting research in the Sanctuary with the blessing of the IWC.

    So sorry Bob Brown, you cannot play semantic games. If the research is a sham, which it is, so is the sanctuary. So stop mentoning it.

    Oh and by the way, nobody accepts our EEZ around Antarctic Islands.

  6. [2 finns was inadvertantly sent a wiki key, I blame him if more cables are released]

    Gussie, i have cracked it but the secrets are safe with me 😉

  8. ruawake

    [The Japanese are conducting research in the Sanctuary with the blessing of the IWC.

    So sorry Bob Brown, you cannot play semantic games]
    The Japanese cannot play semantic games either. “scientific research ” my fuacking arsk !

  9. [Greens Leader Bob Brown released a draft bill today that would have forced Labor to send a Customs or naval vessel to the Southern Ocean to monitor future whale hunts.]

    Hmmm, i wonder if Horsey would be riding on the boat.

  11. [The Japanese cannot play semantic games either. “scientific research ” my fuacking arsk !]

    This is what the whole argument is about. The IWC declared the sanctuary without any research, Japan declared it illegal. So to stay out of court the IWC said OK Japan do the research.

  12. Drawing lines on a map is not the same as being able to defend those borders. Bob Brown would have us start a shooting war with with one of our biggest trading partners to appease his militaristic tendancies.

  14. [The Japanese cannot play semantic games either. “scientific research ” my fuacking arsk !]

    So the status quo is maintained? Each time that a Japanese ship is illegally boarded it sets back the anti whaling campaign. The Japanese government will not allow their sense of national pride to be shamed by a forced back down. Bob Brown should be wise enough to see this. I can only assume that he is playing politics with the issue without expecting it to be resolved any time soon.

  15. No draft bill that Bob Brown issues can ‘force’ Labor to do anything.

    For some time Brown has been showing signs of either rampant megalomania or early Alzheimers – take your pick. There was his scuttling of Rudd’s ETS legislation when he appeared on Lateline grinning from ear to ear waffling on about ‘when we gain control after the next election we’ll be able to get our own legislation through’. Yeah, sure, OK. Then there was his hissy fit about the final legislation for the carbon tax. Now he’s gone all mini-Hitler about whlaes and trees and who knows what else. I’m sure the PM is absolutely terrified.

    Where’s Lee Rhiannon and that much anticipated leadership challenge when you need her? Or SHY maybe.

  16. [Where’s Lee Rhiannon and that much anticipated leadership challenge when you need her? Or SHY maybe.]

    I’m wondering where Christine Milne has been the last few weeks. Is she the one who was granted annual leave over Christmas?

  18. [Danny Lewis

    How is the house moving going?]

    Busy. But fun in an odd way. Maybe it is just the excitement associated with a change of scenery.

    I’m sure it will wear off after a week of moving boxes 😉

  19. ruawake

    [This is what the whole argument is about. The IWC declared the sanctuary without any research, Japan declared it illegal. So to stay out of court the IWC said OK Japan do the research.]
    Actual real live scientists in the field have demolished the Japanese claims for many a year. So if the research is phony then the basis of them being there is kaput.

  23. Tom Hawkins

    [So the status quo is maintained? Each time that a Japanese ship is illegally boarded it sets back the anti whaling campaign. The Japanese government will not allow their sense of national pride to be shamed by a forced back down.]
    Very true but years of smiling politely and negotiating got nowhere either. Which leaves ?

  27. [Approximately 300 Foxconn employees who work on the Xbox 360 manufacturing line in Wuhan, China, threatened to jump from the building’s roof following a rescinded pay deal earlier this month, according to reports….

    WantChina Times reported that 14 Foxconn employees committed suicide in 2010. Employees frequently complained of long working hours and discrimination.

    Microsoft issued a general statement saying it took the working conditions in factories that manufacture its products “very seriously”.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/games/xbox-workers-threaten-mass-suicide-report-20120111-1pudj.html#ixzz1jEOA5zTQ

  28. [Microsoft issued a general statement saying it took the working conditions in factories that manufacture its products “very seriously”.]
    Laocoon
    Has Peter Reith been advising them?

  30. [ruawake

    Yep so nuke the Southern Whale Sanctuary?

    Que ?]

    The reason the Japanese are doing “research” is becuase the IWC imposed the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary without any research to back up its decision. Some learned jurists have said this was illegal, the Japanese agree.

    So the answer is to sort it out in an international court, guess which party instigated this action?

  34. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    #IPA should be renamed to reflect its true nature to Institute of Private Affairs, because it promotes private interests not public #auspol
    1 minute ago

  35. I have a personal theory that respondent declared prefs differs because when people go into ballot boxes they generally follow how-to-vote cards rather than pick numbers according to specific knowledge of candidates.

    When polled, they’re stating Gillard or Abbott (or Labor/Liberal) but in the booth, it is a list of names.

  36. I am not pleased by Getup’s change in campaign process. There were also a couple of others I was watching as they interested me, mainly to do with animals.

    I would have liked to have seen something about a national strategy to enable the affordable desexing of dogs and cats for people on low incomes. I am not saying the government fund it, but making it a target, animal welfare groups, vets, veterinary schools and interested philanthropists (if many actually exist in this country) could make resources and programs work better. This would cut the costs associated with animal management for local councils and shelters and lower income families who want to keep a pet and have the benefits that come with that.

    In SA there are incentives with lower registration fees for desexed, microchipped and/or trained dogs.

    In regard to Jen’s ABC Charter, the issue was not only getting very close to the top of the issues, it was attracting some very pointed comments which I assume have now disappeared into the cyberbox.

  37. BK
    I thought this line from the Grog article posted earlier today was interesting for potential tensions that Reith is clearly stoking from outside the parliamentary tent…
    [while Senator Abetz holds the IR reins for the other side, more importantly young back benchers Jamie Briggs, Steve Ciobo, Kelly O’Dwyer and Josh Frydenberg are aching for the Liberal Party to get on the front foot on this issue. Thus far Tony Abbott has tried to play things quietly – terminally scared he is of WorkChoices. But that peace is not expected to last, and how the issue plays out will be good to watch.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3768324.html

  39. ruawake – There is also the fact that recognition of the no whaling zone would also cede effectively Australia’s claim to a huge part of Antartica … whales are a popular ‘front-end’.

  41. ruawake

    [The reason the Japanese are doing “research” is becuase the IWC imposed the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary without any research to back up its decision]
    Which would be fine IF they were actually doing research. That is the problem I have. The research is bullshit.Science is being abused and prostituted.

  42. This was also the Japanese doing “research”. But it aint whales.

    [Unit 731 (731部隊 Nana-san-ichi butai?, Chinese: 731部队) was a covert biological and chemical warfare research and development unit of the Imperial Japanese Army that undertook lethal human experimentation during the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945) and World War II. It was responsible for some of the most notorious war crimes carried out by Japanese personnel.]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

  43. Puff,

    [In regard to Jen’s ABC Charter, the issue was not only getting very close to the top of the issues, it was attracting some very pointed comments which I assume have now disappeared into the cyberbox.]

    As a matter of fact it had slipped off the front page a month or two ago – after being on the front page since Jen began the pitch. However it had racked up almost TWO THOUSAND comments at the time of forum shuttering – literally hundreds of them documenting bias with links, quotes and citations.

    I’ve already used GetUp’s new facility and pleaded for an ABC campaign. They replied quickly, saying they are passing on all such requests to their partner organisation, NewsStand. NewsStand sounds like the way to go at this point as media reform is THEIR ONLY agenda.

    I will be contacting NewsStand directly to urge them to a campaign on the ABC. The more of us who do this, the more they’re likely to take notice. I’d have thought that, as news consumers and experts themselves, they are already well aware of the problems with the ABC. Maybe they just need a push in the right direction…

    http://www.newsstand.org.au/about

  44. The Finnigans

    [This was also the Japanese doing “research”. But it aint whales.

    Unit 731 (731部隊 Nana-san-ichi butai?, ]
    Truly a contender for most disgusting war crime and criminals. So good that the yanks decided that the “research” and “researchers” would be of use post war. 🙁

  45. Personally, I need to experience how tasty whale meat is before I can make a judgement on how worthy any scientific experimentation is.

    It would be great to see Bob Brown eat some whale meat and declare it disgusting to eat.

    Would put my mind at ease.

  46. Am 3/4 of the way through Rohan Rivett’s Behind Bamboo and have to say the Japanese, as a nation right now, are not at the top of my Christmas list. Hit list, maybe.

    I can’t believe an entire culture can roll over from arrogant, suicidal, torturers, thugs and sadistic mass murderers into Cherry Blossom Sniffers and Peaceful Paper Folders virtually overnight.

    Something about them doesn’t add up.

    Yeah, I know…

  49. [I can’t believe an entire culture can roll over from arrogant, suicidal, torturers, thugs and sadistic mass murderers into Cherry Blossom Sniffers and Peaceful Paper Folders virtually overnight.]

    BB, one thing good that the Japanese are good at is adaptation and also they lost the war. they had no choice.

  50. Meanwhile more rape and pillage in the Antarctic. This time of the Toothfish. Perhaps we should start sinking the bloody fishing vessels destroying fisheries by greedy over fishing ?

    [Professor Evans said numbers started dropping off in 2001, five years after the Ross Sea was opened to commercial toothfishing.

    He said previous to that year as many 500 fish were caught for scientific research every summer season.

    “This year we made a concerted effort to go to sites that we know have been successful in the past. And what did we get? 490 hours of fishing, and one fish. And that was the smallest fish we had ever caught.

    “It is a warning that something is going wrong.”]

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10778287#

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