Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The all-too-brief New Year polling respite has come to an end with the first Morgan face-to-face poll of the year, covering a sample of 934 from the regular weekend survey. It records only minor shifts on the last poll of last year, which combined the results of the weekends of December 10/11 and 17/18: Labor up half a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition up two to 45 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent. Where Labor achieved parity on the previous-election preference method in the last poll, this time the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5. When respondents were asked how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition’s lead was 54-46, up from 53.5-46.5. As always with Morgan over the past year, this result is strangely favourable to the Coalition. One should further query the utility of any poll conducted at this time of year – my intuition is that the absence of holiday-makers from their homes would bias such a poll towards Labor, although I don’t have any actual data to back that up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Just possibly the two to four waves of indigenous peoples who got to Australia 12-50,000 years ago probably can also claim to be the first.

    That was what I meant when I said the “second to discover” , daretotread. 😉

  2. Bushfire Bill

    [“job-creators” ]
    A direct lift from the US Republican party hymn sheet. They love the phrase. Sorta tells you about his choice of reading material.

  3. confessions : “It would’ve fixed itself automatically with the new page.”

    Yes. trouble is I didn’t notice that my failed attempt to fix it was going to be the first on the new one. So my attempt at fixing simply unfixed it. 🙁

    Has this prob been around long? I’m sure I used to use italics all the time here without causing any probs.

  4. Rod Hagen

    I reckon we could add Polynesians as well. With their skills in undertaking long range oceanic voyages and navigational skills I’m sure they would have bumped into Australia at some stage. Crikey them poms were johnny come latelys 🙂

  5. I was interested in an interview on 774 at about 5 am this morning. Nicole Chvastek (the “summer overnight” presenter), talked to a woman who held the view that female politicians had a harder job being accepted than their male counterparts. When she mentioned personal attacks such as clothes, childlesness etc, NC said wtte “that’s no different to Tony Abbott being laughed at over his budgie smugglers”. Woman (really sorry I can’t remember which org she represented) said it wasn’t the same because people were not showing any respect to the office of PM or to a female PM. Gave example of Clive Palmer on Q&A and his “Juliar whats-her-name” which Paul Howes had picked up on.
    NC still didn’t seem to see that there was any difference in treatment with Abbott.

    Turns out NC is the “senior producer” for the Faine program. Q.E.D.

  6. [Paul Sheehan with ants in his pants again:]

    Pushing Work Choices again.

    [My favourite local restaurant was packed on Saturday night, as usual. What was unusual was that its co-owners, who used to take weekends off, were hard at work.
    One was in the kitchen, cooking and running the staff; the other was front of house, running the floor.]

    My wife and I worked in the hospitality industry for over 20 years, managing supervising, owners. Any owner/ manager on a salary covers the most expensive shifts, cook chef front of house, if they can, common business sense.

    Some will always whinge about so called high wages, two shop owners in a complex where I worked complained about high wages and one how his wife had to work in the shop to keep costs down. I found out from staff who worked there they payed cash in hand and encouraged staff to claim the dole. They would love Work Choices but would probably still complain about paying the staff $5 an hour.

    One commentator in the article took Paul apart very easily.

    [Unfortunately Paul if you go out into the real world and look at the stats, something journalists not quite as lazy as yourself have done, you will find that far from killing employment growth and decimating employer profits The Fair Work Act has done nothing of the sort.
    Matt Cowgill went to the trouble of crunching the numbers after George Calombaris’s recent spray along similar lines.
    ‘If a change to the award system really had made it less profitable to employ staff, we’d expect to see the impact of the change most severely in the accommodation and food services industry.’
    Since November 2009, the last quarter before the Restaurant Industry Award took effect; total employment in food and beverage services has risen by 4%. Employment across all industries has also risen by 4%.
    The Restaurant Industry Award doesn’t seem to be damaging employment in that industry.

    Dont know where Paul the 37,000 figure from

    [Talk to employers who are having to deal with an explosion of litigation under the Fair Work Act. In the law’s first full year of operation, the number of formal cases lodged with Fair Work Australia leapt 110 per cent to more than 37,000 cases.]

    FWA releases stats each quarter that shows around 11,000 a year

    [In the September quarter, there were 3,115 s394 unfair dismissal applications which rose to 3,164 in the December quarter. These figures combined suggest dismissal numbers are gradually increasing from the 2009/10 financial full year’s total of 11,116 unfair dismissal applications.]

    Read more:

    Just another Howie hugger crying for days gone by.

  7. Lizzie

    I do not doubt for a minute that female politicians have it much worse than men when it comes to clothes etc. One reason is of course that people notice what women wear but not usually men in boring grey suits. Loud ties, pink shorts or lycra, fishnet stockings etc DO rate a mention but just occasionally whereas for women it is daily.

    Sometimes I think women politicians should do a Helen Clarke. Wear bland crumpled suits of indeterminate colour. Dress then becomes irrelevant.

    Oddly enough, I think overweight men cop a slightly harder deal than overweight women.

  8. Cuppa hang in there as the text is the only thing you will see leaning right on PB. The sentiments will continue to lean leftish.

  9. Meanwhile in Pakistan a comedic illustration of just why you can’t believe everything (anything ?) officials tell us about the AfPak war.

    [US Reports Killing Hakimullah Mehsud
    Readers may remember Hakimullah from the last seven times officials have claimed he was killed, most of them “confirmed kills.” Hakimullah was first slain in August 2009, and slain six addition times between then and February 2010. He appeared in May 2010 to report that despite being killed so many times he was “basically ok.”]

  10. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Another cool damp white out (driving visibility 20-25 m) with not even cricket to enliven Fairfax’s & Murdoch’s efforts to emphasise the silly in Silly Season.

    Short of S&P’s EuroDebt Ratings Downgrading, Cruise ship & Indian cricket disasters, the most interesting news lies in articles on China-India cooperation; eg The Hindu’s Let’s seize ‘golden period’ for relations, China says on eve of border talks and A brighter future when China and India work hand in hand

    This one is for the 007 Car Tragic’s delight The Bond in Motion exhibition featuring 50 original vehicles used in the James Bond films to celebrate 50 years of 007 – opens on 17 January at the National Motor Museum in Beaulieu, Hampshire.

  11. daretotread

    One of the criticisms mentioned was Abbott saying that the PM “lacks authority”. The interviewee insisted that it was merely that Oz was unused to a woman in a position of power.
    Meanwhile, Michelle Obama is copping it for being both black and intelligent/assertive.

  12. just watching joe o’brien after pm’s presser – continually referring to her as ‘she’ as did tom iggulton – really disgraceful – will contact abc24 now and complain….

  13. Lizzie

    Although it is now much, much better I think the PM did not do herself any favours with the Women’s Weekly stuff in 2010 and the at home doco last year. They reinforced stereo types of women. It is hard to be seen as having “authority” when posing for fashion shots.

    Mind you I think that Abbott also loses authority every time he gets on a bike. The he-man image is well passed its use by date.

  14. daretotread

    Surely you don’t mean the “At Home with Julia”, which wasn’t even witty enough to be called a farce.
    Imagine Howard and Janette under the flag in his office – the ABC would never have dared.

  15. Lizzie

    No I meant that doco with Tim in the garden shed at the lodge (? Australian story). It was intended to make her look sweet, family oriented and “normal wifey” but it just did not work IMHO.

    The At Home with J&T was just repulsive – not funny, witty, accurate or interesting. However the very fact that it was made at all I think DID undermine JG and the authority of the office.

    You are right. The ABC would NEVER have done a drama like that about Howard and Jeanette. It was blatant bias. Mind you I think it probably backfired a bit, because I think, stupid though it was, JG got as bit of positive sympathy from it . Tim certainly did.

  16. daretotread @ 2128 & lizzie @ 2131

    That “At Home with Julia” was just appalling and heads should have rolled at the ABC over that. Of course the Prime Minister herself just has to grin and bear it or her comments would be used against her, but others should have acted.

  17. 2128 – daretotread

    My impressions are that Jg was not “posing” as a career person, she was acting as one – the one being our Prime Minister. Her authority never failed her during these shots.

  18. Cuppa:

    Interesting to note that Turnbull has been giving the kind of speeches Tony Abbott should’ve been giving. I suppose Abbott is incapable of articulating substantive arguments on foreign policy and core Liberal economic policy.

  19. Even the Coalition complained publicly about Their ABC’s “At Home with Julia”. Said wtte that no politician should be subjected to that. Shortly thereafter – show cancelled!

  20. [As Liberals, and especially with so many of our members from business, we know that picking winners is hard enough for the private sector, and well nigh impossible for the public sector. We know that when tax revenues are handed out to one firm or industry they come at the expense of all the other firms and families that paid that tax. That is why we should always ensure that Government support for industry, be it in the form of cash payments or protection, is rigorously analysed and justified so that its economic costs are well understood by the community which ultimately will have to bear them.]

    MT is directly undermining his leader’s stance on carbon abatement.

  21. Gigi

    The Julia in the lodge doco was pretty bloody awful IMHO. Mind you I do not like ANY of those programs so I may not be the best judge. However doing “at homes” programs is very dangerous. Look at how it panned out for Hollingworth. On balance politicians should avoid them

  22. Confessions,

    [I suppose Abbott is incapable of articulating substantive arguments on foreign policy and core Liberal economic policy]

    That’s an understatement! I doubt he could articulate his own name without reading it from the Idiot Sheet.

  23. 2140 daretotread

    I was specifically talking about the “women’s Weekly” shots which I found terrific. As for the doco with the tin sheds, I agree with you, these programmes have to be very carefully managed or avoided. Yet even in that doco, the PM looked pretty laid back, a bit detached, slightly amused at being out of place (for once) – but that was ok, because it was in Tim’s shadow. No more than that.

  24. why does joeobrien smile all the time.

    when u complain about 24 hour news ring Sydney switch board from your lo al abc
    and ask for abc 24. most ti es they have a recording
    I do leave my number. for them to ring me back

  25. 2143 my say

    Joe O’Brien is a bit like a toy which has some sort of spring mecanism. You say “Julia Gillard” and it automatically makes him smile.

  26. [BTW – Am a happy owner of a Asus Prime]

    Dave, still deciding whether to get this or the new Ultrabook.

    [Preloaded on the Transformer Prime is Polaris® Office® 3.0]

    Is this a full functioning copy & what browser you use on this? thanks

  27. [Even the Coalition complained publicly about Their ABC’s “At Home with Julia”. Said wtte that no politician should be subjected to that. Shortly thereafter – show cancelled!]

    The Noalition only complained that the actors (playing PM and Tim) were shown having sex wrapped in a Oz flag. It was the desecration of the flag that upset them not the office of PM being depicted in that way.

  28. [… Shortly thereafter – show cancelled!]

    I was out of the country at the time. Was the show cancelled or were all of the recorded episodes screened?

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