Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  9. [Wow it is. I read an article a couple of days ago about the place. I be jealous. It looked truly amazing and scary in equal quantities.]

    Lets just say when a hotel charges people $50 SIN (about $40 AUD) just to visit the pool and hear about its construction (but you are not allowed to actually swim in it) then you know that you are onto something special!

  15. Mod Lib

    [Lets just say when a hotel charges people $50 SIN (about $40 AUD) just to visit the pool and hear about its construction (but you are not allowed to actually swim in it) then you know that you are onto something special!]
    Sounds like nought has changed. The toll to access the lifts to the Raffles 71st storey “worlds highest bar and worlds fastst lifts” was spending $40 at the bar. However in them thar days the exchange rate was pretty cool.

  21. Therese@TiggerTherese17m

    Watching #Leveson live is a bit like the Elizabethans watching bear baiting really isn’t it. #lovelysunnyday #timetogoout

  24. Frank Calabrese

    [The downside of FIFO workers.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/12561223/fifo-worker-jailed-over-home-invasion/%5D
    All part of the unintended results of the drug policy . When drug testing became de rigueur for miners then smoking a bit of dope was out. It stays in the system for weeks. In came cocaine,LSD and speed as it washed out of the system in a couple of days. Party time for the suppliers. The same thing happened amongst sports peasants for the same reasons.

  27. [ my say
    Posted Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
    mod lib
    I agree with bemused
    must of made your day

    good night]

    dont leave on my part my say, I’m off now anyway. You are safe!

  30. 71 stories down the Stamford!

    Ruddy hell, Poroti, you didn’t also happen to course through the underground sewer in Coleman street between the Padang and the Peninsula hotel did you?

  38. [Beverly Hetherington@bevhethReply

    #leveson Is it the lighting or do the newspapermen questioned all have very red faces?]

    Answers mostly suggested ‘cos they’re dickheads …

  39. The Latin languages have a thing like “The cup fell from me” (not my fault) which sounds very natural.

    Many witnesses in Leveson try the same gig and it sounds so affected.

  40. CTar1,

    The witnesses may have natural clovities ( “clotivity” may not be a word but it deserves to be one) towards a ruddiness but I would not suggest that to be an indicator of nortyness. The increase of said ruddiness may be such an indicator.

  43. 12.16pm: Wright is asked if cash payments are made to sources at the Mail on Sunday.

    “In certain circumstances,” he replies.

    He says he believes the biggest cash payment in the past five years was £3,500.

    Wright adds the top payment for a “major interview” or book serialisation in the last year was £50,000.

    Asked how much the MoS paid the woman for a story relating to Lord Triesman, Wright says it would have been something “in that order”, of £50,000.

    Peter Wright is obviously eminently believable.

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jan/11/leveson-inquiry-peter-wright-live?newsfeed=true

  44. The Finnigans,,

    [ Here is cartoon, Boerwar refers to

    VIC, so that is what Horsey looks like :grin:]

    Even if nobody else picks up on it, this has got to take some beating this year for the funniest post.

    Good one Finns. 😉

  45. gusface,

    The Bedlam inmates had no ill-intent. This stuff is a tad different.

    I want this coterie of high-ups sent down for eternity.

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