Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  6. Facebook is a amazing entity. Just found out 24 minutes ago my mate’s little brother died… suspected insulin hypo episode. Technology/internet gives you the means to call in to the cops in SA about your missing family member, then tune into police scanners and listen to then give a message re a death notice to your parents place… how sad.

  12. Morning / Evening and Happy new Year. There’s a full moon out there and I thought I might go bay at it. It’s not till Monday night, though.

    More fun and games with Leveson coming up.

  13. The line-up:

    Live coverage of the media ethics inquiry resumes at 10am on 9 January 2012, with evidence from:
    • Duncan Larcombe, the Sun’s royal editor
    • Kelvin Mackenzie, former editor of the Sun
    • Dominic Mohan, editor of the Sun
    • Gordon Smart, the editor of the Sun’s “Bizarre” showbusiness column
    • Justin Walford, the Sun’s legal manager
    Nb: the inquiry team has not announced the order in which the day’s witnesses will appear.

    h­ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8167000/8167512.stm

  14. Hi everyone,

    Hope you all had a good Christmas and New Year.

    I couldn’t find any polls during William’s absence. I usually see them on the Oz website, but I couldn’t find them.

    Damn my terrible eyes and finding skills.

  15. Happy New Year everyone. Fluff up the cushions, break out the drinks, bring on the nibbles, the PB Lounge has reopened. Did someone repaint the walls?

  20. morning all and happy new year! wow! it’s great to be back on the pb site with all like minded friends. let’s hope it’s a cracker year!

  21. Good Morning to all PBs.

    Just in case some of you missed the big news on AFV yesterday.

    The inaugural meeting of the PB’s Groucho Marx Chapter happened on Saturday under the gaze of the Sydney Harbour Bridge. The founding members were: GG, Gussie and your truly.

    Yes, we did take a photo and yes, we are NOT afraid to publish it, unlike the cowardly SA Chapter who met last year. Here is the photo:

    And a big thank to Frank and Ru for providing AFV to cover the silly season. Also for keep on developing the site as an alternative platform to PB, just incase Crickey did a Huffington, especially now that Rupe has joined and circling Twitter

  22. I know finns that you with the hat on

    my new years resultion, more quilting, more sewing, me time lol
    less blogging. more jogging,

    my oh now retired is now walking 4 k every morning, me I trundle along with the dog.
    and meet him coming back

    finns can you post the stuff about the truck, it was such great threatre,
    I hope joe 6 pac got on his radio to let all the qld truckies know
    I think aboot, put up the labor vote amoungst them.

  23. The experts are totally divided, confused and havent got a clue about what is happening or going to happen to the Chinese economy. Ranging from total collapse, hard landing, status quo, soft landing to plowing ahead. Just select and take your poison.

    But like the tide, as they like to say in China, life goes on, it comes and goes.

    [China’s December Lending, Money Supply Signal Easing Conditions – Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) — China’s December lending and money supply growth exceeded economists’ estimates, signaling monetary conditions may be easing as the nation’s central banker said it must be prepared for possible shocks from the U.S. and Europe.

    New loans totaled 640.5 billion yuan ($101 billion) for the month, exceeding the estimates of all 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. M2, a measure of money supply, rose 13.6 percent, compared with the 12.9 percent median of 18 estimates.

    People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday the nation must be ready to combat possible shocks from Europe’s debt crisis and an uncertain U.S. economic outlook, echoing comments by Premier Wen Jiabao. China last month cut the reserve requirement for banks for the first time since 2008 as Europe’s debt crisis eroded demand for its exports and consumer prices moderated to the slowest pace in 14 months.

    “This is better-than-expected monetary data, suggesting monetary conditions have started to ease,” said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., who previously worked at the World Bank. Liu said he expects that the central bank may cut the reserve requirement again before the Lunar New Year on Jan. 23. “Such easing will help ensure a soft landing for the Chinese economy,” he said.]

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-08/china-s-december-lending-money-supply-signal-easing-conditions.html

  25. Good Morning My Say and Good New Year.

    Methinks we should let Joe post his expose of Abbott’s deception himself here on PB.

    btw: i always leave my hat on. :kiss:

  27. Morning all and happy new year.

    Finns regarding China I caught up with an economist who I follow on them over the break and even he doesn’t know. Your guess is as good as mine.

  29. Good morning fellow Bludgers returning from withdrawal. Frank provided welcome respite with his now nice looking site.
    So it’s Happy New Year to you all.
    We started the year with my daughter and her boyfriend (a township local) announcing their engagement. Good stuff!
    Looks like a slow news day again, but here goes with the morning links.
    A good sideswipe at reality TV here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/biggest-losers-from-tv-obesity-cures-are-gullible-viewers-20120108-1pq0g.html
    And for those who missed it, Cynthia Banham wrote a lovely piece on her experience through reference to Christopher Hicthens’ death.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/hitchens-helped-ease-the-journey-for-a-kindred-spirit-20120105-1pmqc.html
    A good Alan Moir cartoon in the Popeye series.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html?selectedImage=5

  31. Welcome back Everyone – happy new year and all that jazz

    Probably a sad comment on my life that I couldn’t help but check in a few times during the break to see if PB had come back early 🙁

    Anyways, we didn’t really miss all that much during the quiet time – I’m sure things will pick up pretty quickly now though 🙂

    Looks like the issues to kick things off will be the whale protesters on the Japanese ship – I think the Japanese would be well within their rights to take them back to Japan as they boarded the ship in international waters

    The other is just starting out but will get much bigger throughout the year and that’s how the GST money is allocated – I hope Swan stays strong and after stuffing up with the design of the mining tax punishes the states that up their royalties outside the norm

    Have a great day All

  34. Now that you have all felt his wrath and power, can I remind people NOT to use monkey avatars and upset dan?

    On a less serious note, hello everybody!!

    We can now put away those novels, turn off the TV, stop annoying the kids and get back to real life.

  35. Hi everyone – all the best of the morning to you.

    Finns

    [Methinks we should let Joe post his expose of Abbott’s deception himself here on PB.]

    Can you point me to the post where Joe exposes Abbott – I must have missed it as this is a complete mystery to me.

  36. This morning I did a random spot-check to note the ABC’s approach to political news in the new year. First bulletin I heard, 06.30am, Radio National, first words spoken by newsreader:

    [The Federal Opposition says…]

    …followed by a voice grab of Greg Hunt.

    Nothing changes. There doesn’t seem to be anything ‘new’ about 2012 at Their ABC. Same as it has been in previous years: partisan messaging presented as ‘news’. Sure to benefit the Australian public heaps, he said ironically …

    We’ll continue to do a better job of news analysis here on Poll Bludger, so this will be the indispensable first-look source.

    Some good news re the media front, however. The Global Mail is set to kick off early this year. Promises to deliver high quality, independent in-depth investigative journalism. Several ex-ABC journos on deck including Monica Attard and Stephen Crittenden. Sounds exciting! Bookmark the site:

    http://www.theglobalmail.org/

    Good to have Poll Bludger open for business again after a couple of weeks break. Looking forward to hearing from y’all through the time ahead. Happy New Year!

  37. Morning all and a Happy New Year to everyone.

    Missed this site and its people. Lets hope this year will improve for the progressive forces in this country and the dark and evil ones will disappear.

  38. Morning bludgers

    It is indeed good to have PB open for business again!

    TH

    It was reported during the week that Abbott got his heavy vehicle licence and delivered melons in Qld. J6p was not impressed by this stunt.

  41. Morning and a Happy New Year to all and sundry.

    As a point of some interest, I observed several regulars utilised the PBreak to become Twitteratti.

    May I suggest that others may enjoy the experience on a casual basis.

  42. This is what Abbott tweeted

    [Tony Abbott
    @TonyAbbottMHR
    Got my heavy combination licence over the break. Just taken a load of melons to Brisbane to show that the Lockyer Valley is back in business]

  43. [Tony Abbott
    @TonyAbbottMHR
    @ngarabalwarrior Heavy combination. I got a medium rigid licence about seven years ago with the local RFS]

  44. This was a reply

    [Phil Winzer
    @ngarabalwarrior
    @TonyAbbottMHR Heavy Combination or Heavy Rigid? The papers say Heavy Rigid…]

  45. Here we go again, more stunts.

    joeobrien24 Joe O’Brien
    Tony Abbott at Manly SLSC this morn .. expecting doorstop i/v sometime after 9am – could be up to hour later #abcnews24
    8 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
    Retweeted by ABCNews24

  47. [Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to act as three Australian anti-whaling activists are held captive on a Japanese surveillance boat.]

    I hope that when a government spokesperson comments on this incident they empthasise the stupidity of the three men in question

    [The men illegally boarded the whaling support vessel Shonan Maru 2 in waters off the south-west coast of Western Australia on Saturday night.]

    Yes they are Australian citizens and the government must act. Yes I like most Aussies I hate the hunting of whales but when…

    [… the three negotiated their way past the razor wire and spikes and over the rails of the Japanese whaling vessel…]

    you have to wonder what degree of stupidity some people will resort to in making a point. Do they really think that the Japanese government will now call a halt to whaling? Most likely this stupid act will increase Japan’s resolve to maintain national pride and give our government the bird.

  50. Cuppa

    [This morning I did a random spot-check to note the ABC’s approach to political news in the new year. ]
    Check out this recent headline from the Guardian. Looks like only the names have been changed.

    [Labour turns on BBC over ‘pro-coalition coverage’

    Party prepares for series of policy announcements by accusing corporation of becoming coalition ‘echo chamber’]
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/31/ed-miliband-labour-bbc-bias

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