A Queensland state election looms, and while it could theoretically be held as late as June 16, most observers of the state’s politics are expecting it in late February or March. (UPDATE: Or perhaps not Striketwo in comments alerts me to this Courier-Mail article which relates that the ECQ wants a clear six weeks either side of the March 31 council elections.) Peter Beattie weighed in thus in The Weekend Australian:
Labor is giving Newman as much time as possible before going to the people, hoping the LNP will disintegrate and repeat the disastrous campaigns of the past … This month will be a silly season for election date speculation. The 2009 election was held on March 21 but this year there are local government elections on March 31. For Bligh to go past the 2009 election date would enable Newman to run an effective campaign against the government, claiming Time’s up or It’s time for the people to decide the future of Queensland. The government would be seen to be running scared if there was a delayed election and a winning momentum would move solidly to Newman and the LNP.
Helpfully for his successor, Beattie relates that even my old dog Rusty could have managed Anna Bligh’s achievement in winning the 2009 election, owing to a favourable redistribution and the size of the majority he bequeathed her. Beattie also predicts that Campbell Newman will seek to succeed Teresa Gambaro as federal member for Brisbane if he fails to win either the election or his designated seat of Ashgrove.
Elsewhere, Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a complete seat-by-seat guide in business, and my own will follow when it’s done. The same obviously goes for Antony Green, who in the meantime has shown us what the result would look like if voting patterns at the federal election were replicated not pretty for Labor, suffice to say.