Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).
The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.
Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.
Good Morning All.
Tom Hawkins, the fact that this is a complete mystery to you shows just how pathetic our msm are and how good the new media can be.
As j6p explained, if the rabbott drove that vehicle 1mm on a public road he would risk a heavy fine of goal time. j6p challenged Abbott to produce his MC licence.
This stunt should have been big political news but instead, nothing. Just think what would have happened if Julia had been in that truck.
Happy New Year all. I had bad withdrawals from no PB!!
Puff, it is extraordinary. The Abbott truck driving does not stack up yet not one so called journalist from the MSM has delved into it. He is the most heavily protected species in Australia. Any wonder he can resorts to stunts instead of policy.
PVO made the astonishing claim that Abbott was SO GOOD that it was hard to tell the difference between his spin and the government’s actual achievements. I would argue that the MSM is SO BAD that the public cant tell the difference.
This from twitter.the link takes you to Peter Martin: Greatest hits. My most clicked-on twelve in 2011
http://bit.ly/zYomlt
Good morning, Bludgers, and a happy and prosperous 2012 to ye all.
A special Good Morning and H&PNY to ye, William.
35 degrees atop The Range today, and the magic Easterly (and all other possible breezes) probably missing – like yesterday.
Happy 105th Birthday for yesterday Min (my MIL). Yer getting old now.
A good & a great Cricket Test in there, Bludgers. The Swami Army is really getting it together (onya fellas – love the Indian flag turban!). Looks as if we’ll have to find an Indian equivalent of “Calypso Cricket”. Missed PB cricket talk. Looking forward to the Wacca Test.
Amid a welter of non-news, we Aussies became the World’s Greatest Suckers for Alternative (esp Herbal) Medicine – despite inhabiting a Continent where all the fresh stuff needed grows for the price of seeds and some healthy exercise (and is way cheaper & tastes infinitely better) – and the World’s Greatest Suckers of Alternative (green) Cigarettes, also easy to grow from seed. We are A Weird Mob.
Meanwhile, in the Great US of A, the GOP US2012 bandwagon trundles on its weirdo way, while the Fates seem to be smiling on Obama. Though I’m not sure I want the Wackos that run the US military and the weirder Wackos who ‘run’ its ‘intelligence’ services doing their Warmongering Thingo in our patch. But it’s the Asian Century now, so let me revise that! I am, in fact, damned sure I don’t want the USA invading our patch. Being frozen out of Europe, kicked out of a resurgent South America; having stuffed up BigTime in the Middle East; losing economic supremacy to Asia’s Tigers and Cubs; End of Empire looming – historically, that’s a rarely-fails recipe for catastrophic wars, despite a declining ability to achieve even a stalemate, much less win them. Where’s Isolationism when we need it!
Puff
[Tom Hawkins, the fact that this is a complete mystery to you shows just how pathetic our msm are and how good the new media can be. ]
Now I’m even more confused. Did Abbott get an endorsed licence or not? Does anyone know for sure?
OPT
Congratulations to Min. Wow 105!!
End of empire is looming, but the US will not give up so easily. The warmongers will continue with business as usual.
Cuppa @ 36
“This morning I did a random spot-check to note the ABC’s approach to political news in the new year. First bulletin I heard, 06.30am, Radio National, first words spoken by newsreader:
The Federal Opposition says…
…followed by a voice grab of Greg Hunt.”
Greetings everyone – yes this outrageous ABC practice seems to be continuing into the new year. They allowed Hunt to sprout on about ‘we warned the Government three times…this occurred in Australian waters etc etc’. I have difficulty in seeing how providing the Opposition with a megaphone to complain about the Government without announcing any of their own suggestions and without the ABC questioning the accuracy of their misleading or dishonest claims provides either news or balance.
[Treasurer widens GST review to target states that increase mining royalties]
Text on Sky News.
Hi Poroti,
[Labour turns on BBC over ‘pro-coalition coverage’]
Sort of weakens the apologists’ theory that the party in power cries “Bias!” simply because it’s under more scrutiny.
Good morning all and happy new year! I hope you all had a good break from PB these last couple of weeks.
hi confessions
Hope you had a good break.
Xmas day was a blast for us in Melbourne. Hail storms and floods were the fare of the day!!
Morning everyone. I hope everyone had (or is still having!) a good break.
Just in regards to The Global Mail, I noticed over the break a couple of rightists criticising the ability of TGM to claim independence because it is funded by Graeme Wood – founder of Wotif and the biggest independent political donor so far with a $1m+ donation to the Greens. They suggested that if Clive Palmer were to start up a news organisation it would hardly be called ‘independent’.
Don’t be surprised if you see further attacks on TGM, especially by Murdoch media and talk-back radio. Anyway, we all know that facts have a left-wing bias 😉
BK
It appears Swan is going to muscle in on the states
[The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election]
Interesting to see how this play out this year.
Hey victoria! I had a great xmas and new year. I saw the reports of the crazy weather you’ve had in Melbourne. Serious stuff!
We’re back – wonderful. Hi everyone.
I noticed Abbott was doing a presser a day last week. And topped it off with front page of the Sunday Age, with him and Baillieu doing the Pier to Pub. I don’t know whether it’s that he has nothing to complain about or whether he’s trying out his new ‘statesmanlike’ image, but most of his appearances were pretty feeble. Platitudes and generalisations about how tough Qld had it during the floods, mostly. He’s pulled the focus away from “Labor is evil blah blah..” but he hasn’t replaced it with anything. So it’s like, “Hi, here I am in (insert location), here’s the local member…”
It looks like the message from Liberal HQ is that he gained traction over summer twice, so he needs to get out there and be as visible as possible. But to be honest I don’t think anyone’s noticing. In the absence of real news, he’s just flopping about.
But then I’ve been following the news a lot less too.
57
Yes, “sprouting on …” that’s all they do. Look at Howard. He has been appointed a member of the Order of Merit. The Queen will probably knight him one day: Sir John Winston Howard.
Oh! What a wonderful Sir Lancelot!
Cuppa
[Sort of weakens the apologists’ theory that the party in power cries “Bias!” simply because it’s under more scrutiny]
It also strengthens the notion that mordor is at work in both cases.The Murdoch’s went on a bit of a jihad a couple of years ago against the BBC. Considering the people whose ears they had at the time I am sure some “things” were done.
[News Corporation’s James Murdoch has said that a “dominant” BBC threatens independent journalism in the UK.]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8227915.stm
confessions
I am not confident that this year is going to be better than last year. Had a chat yesterday with someone very heavily involved with several unions. This person has no time for the Labor party and believes that all unions should have disaffiliated from the party years ago. It is an unheallty alliance, which is damaging the unions and the Labor party as well. Found what this person had to say very sobering. The party does have a lot of issues that need dealing with.
comfessions
We had Cars damaged by the hail, as well as my parents’ pergola whilst we were cooking meat on the webers. It was kind of funny as well. Having great big hailstones punch holes in the roof of the pergola and all the rain coming through on the webers that were underneath. Also, my oh and son had to rescue a car floating down the street nearby. It was a Xmas we will not forget.
Aguirre
I had the hard copy of the Age yesterday, and got so angry when I saw the front page devoted to a picture of Abbott and Ballieu at the pier to pub in Lorne.
Good morning, fellow Bludgers!
I became so accustomed to *not* checking in here every morning that I almost forgot to do it today …
Cold turkey over. Let the feasting begin 😀
victoria:
Sobering indeed.
And about time, too, Danny!!
victoria:
Sounds like an eventful day for your family. I had no idea you’d gotten flooding to the extent cars were being washed down streets!
confessions
Another thing this person said is that Bill Shorten will be Labor’s next PM. Although, he will only take the leadership, when he is guaranteed the PMinistership. He will not take the leadership whilst it is a poison chalice.
Gigi 67. Yep, that’d be Sir John all right.
Wielding a bat.
Fiz,
[Just in regards to The Global Mail, I noticed over the break a couple of rightists criticising the ability of TGM to claim independence because it is funded by Graeme Wood – founder of Wotif and the biggest independent political donor so far with a $1m+ donation to the Greens. They suggested that if Clive Palmer were to start up a news organisation it would hardly be called ‘independent’.]
I can’t imagine that any ‘news’ service instigated by Clive Palmer or the like would offer anything that the current mainstream media already present. It would just be more of the same. Redundant, really, though I doubt that would stop them.
Tom,
J6p’s comments about the licence are here, on Frank’s blog.
http://afrankview.net/2012/01/the-dawn-patrol-report-obamas-doctrine-peace-like-a-river-dont-call-us-we-call-you/
Briefly, j6p said Abbott needed an MC Class licence to drive that truck, and it is a long, thorough and expensive process to get an MC licence.
I wonder how many other truckers were as offended by that stunt as our PB Trucker, Joe6pack?
confessions
It was a major event. It was reported yesterday that the insurance bill is around 700 million dollars.
71
They didn’t look attractive, a bit like two gudgeon fish. I didn’t mind their flabby flesh exposed on the front page for once …
Puff
According to Abbott’s tweets, he previously held a licence to drive medium trucks due to his involvement with the Rural fire Service. Not sure if this made it easier for him to get this licence
Morning all. Hope everyone is well. Here’s a story on the front page of the AFR today
http://www.afr.com/p/national/swan_threatens_states_on_gst_xwUEajmjt0yALPboEVVTFL
[Swan threatens states on GST
PUBLISHED: 9 HOURS 11 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 4 HOURS 4 MINUTES AGO
GEOFF WINESTOCK
Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan has toughened up the review of the $48 billion GST carve-up, insisting that individual states be financially penalised for jacking up mining royalties or refusing to get rid of inefficient taxes such as stamp duties.]
gigi
Agree with your assessment that they did not look very becoming in that photo op
http://www.afr.com/p/markets/cuts_loom_amid_offshore_threats_Oas1m4OQx5950fwGze6i2H
[Rate cuts loom amid offshore threats
PUBLISHED: 9 HOURS 9 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 1 HOUR 56 MINUTES AGO
PIP FREEBAIRN
The Australian economy will strengthen to around its long-run average growth rate this year but interest rates will head lower as the Reserve Bank of Australia attempts to fend off the ills flowing from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, a survey of leading economists shows.]
[MrDenmore Mr Denmore
Anyone tracking the ‘productivity’ beat-ups on the front page of the AFR since Michael Stutchbury took over?]
How unsurprisement that another Stutchbury is pushing his own ideological agenda at the AFR!
Oops, another = Michael
What precisely did Greg Hunt suggest that would have prevented the abduction of the three Australians?
Morning all! Happy New Year.
This from twitter.the link takes you to Peter Martin: Greatest hits. My most clicked-on twelve in 2011
http://bit.ly/zYomlt
[4 The carbon tax, the mining tax, they’ll kill mining right? May 27, 2011
Neither the mining tax nor the prospect of a carbon tax has made a dent in mining expansion plans with the industry reporting plans that would double spending in the year ahead. Capital expenditure plans collated by the Bureau of Statistics show mining companies intend to lift spending from $35 billion in 2009-10 to $51 billion in 2010-11, an increase of 45 per cent. Plans for 2011-12 suggest a further boost of 63 per cent to a record $83 billion, a figure economists say is almost certainly an underestimate.]
TT
I don’t know, but it probably had something to do with needing an election now.
vic
[Another thing this person said is that Bill Shorten will be Labor’s next PM. Although, he will only take the leadership, when he is guaranteed the PMinistership. He will not take the leadership whilst it is a poison chalice.]
Whomever would have thunk it? That’s what the dumping of Rudd was all about – positioning.
While this site was in recess, one of my mates died of Creuzfeldt Jakob Disease (Mad Cow Disease) – allegedly the result of meat he ate in Europe in the 1970s. It’s supposed to be a one in a million chance, but my sister-in-law knows of three people who succumbed in Adelaide last year. My mate, who was 65, started feeling ill at the end of October and died three weeks after diagnosis. Thankfully he suffered no pain.
Victoria,
Not according to j6p, who wants Abbott to show the media his licence. Joe was very offended that Abbott was pretending to be a real B-Double truck driver and he wants to know exactly when, where and how Tony Abbott got an MC licence, if he has one.
Happy New everyone. It’s been trying time not being able to vent here.
Spin spectaculars over the break were:
1. DAILY TELEGRAPH: Labor tries to commercialize Anzac Centenary
so they can grab money to shore up the deficit. Regulation $100,000 spent on focus groups and logo design “revealed”.
(Actually so they can PREVENT others from hi-jacking the day… but why let this get in the way of a good old “Labor hates Diggers” story?)
Get ready for the “MacANZAC Burger”, “How dare these bozos interfere with our golden tradition?” etc. etc. according to commenters on the articles. Long talk back session on 2GB and grave, frowning coverage on Channel 9 between newsreader bimbo and Peter Harvey lookalike political reporter at this “attack” on our “sacred day” and shameless waste of precious national resources (i.e. the $100k).
Consensus seems to be that the Anzac Centenary should just “organize itself” with groundswell of emotional public support from DT readers whose “father and grandfather fought for our flag”.
Wogs and recent immigration arrivals not invited as they “don’t understand sacrifice of our Anzacs”.
Sideline controversy from Kiwis, “What about us? The N-Z in Anzac means New Zealand!” fobbed off with “Get a job, bludgers”, also in comments.
2. DAILY TELEGRAPH: Casey Antarctic base runway is melting
at a cost of $47 million. Worked Peter Garrett into the story and generally commented on “more Labor waste”, and “Ice melts? D’oh! These clowns can’t get anything right!” comments.
Must have been a line-ball controversy for them to run as you could argue that Global Warming might have had something to do with the melting of the runway. Dismissed in comments as “These idiots can’t even get Global Warming right! Can we have an election NOW???????” an so on ad infinitum.
3. THE AUSTRALIAN: Who knows what “Social Inclusion Department” does?
One comment by tame in-house ex-Labor Minister Gary Johns and one comment from Mitch Fifield (Shadow Minister) saying not even the Minister knows what his department does was turned into three successive articles and then segued into a total condemnation of everything on the Left of politics by Jack The Insider the next day. Topic de jour on 2GB. Nice try, but Holiday Spirit killed it off.
4. THE AUSTRALIAN: Barnett in WA condemns Gillard for breaking promise
to pay-off Native Title Bills. Turns out from the article that the promise was made by John Howard to Richard Court in the late 1990s (not Gillard or Rudd and certainly not to Barnett) and not followed up on when Labor got elected in WA. Godd for a 1,000 word story with followups the next day.
Barnett vows he’s going to play hard-ball from now on. Other Coalition premiers are now saying the same thing.
Problem is: they ALL want “their fair share” (i.e. “more”) of GST money, and they can’t ALL have it. The Australian does not discuss this obvious fault in logic.
The mind boggles at the furore if a LABOR premier had said the same thing, wtte: “I’ll wreck COAG”. Instead, the Coalition Premiers are being touted as grassroots heroes of the people.
5. THE AUSTRALIAN: Shanahan writes 1,000 words
telling readers Labor is behind in the polls.
Who knew?
Dennis gets the “Stating the Bleedin’ Obvious” prize for 2011 (again). More quality journalism to come, I am sure.
6. 2GB: Tony Abbott in hard-hitting interview
with well-known Liberal Party critic, Chris Smith, says “I’m ready to be Prime Minister. Tomorrow if necessary.” Chris says “Good on yer, Tony!”.
Is Abbott’s ego and Prime Ministerial ambition which has hog-tied politics, parliament and government for the past two years (without a hint of success) THE most boring interview subject imaginable? Or is it just me?
Toorak Toff,
I am so sorry you have lost your friend and in such an unexpected way.
Three in Adelaide? I wonder if there is any more cases in other areas of Australia?
TT:
The only people I’ve heard of contracting CJD live in remote NT. Sad news for you and your friend’s family, esp that he died so suddenly.
BB @ 95
Actually a well known Labor rat!
How did that creep ever get pre-selected? The Qld branch of the ALP has a lot to answer for.
mtbw
Actually this person said Rudd was dumped because of his clumsy handling of the mining tax. Rudd figured he was the PM and all he had to do was announce a mining tax. The miners thought otherwise.
[GillCann Gillian Cannon
The shark siren has sounded at Manly Beach just as opp leader Tony Abbott finished his press conf. Everyone ordered out. #2GBNews]
😆