Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. This stuff on “sources” is getting interesting. The DM has many questions to answer: “Nothing beyond 2004.”

    My right leg plays all of the Greek national anthem.

  4. CTar1,

    Each of the three counsel seems to have an appointed target. Interesting to see what their “off-target” involvement is.

    You are in Scullin, Holt, Hawker?

  7. Scullin.

    The Mail obviously are not well prepared – their lawyers have fuc%ed up or this guy decided to ignore them.

    Not like Davies QC’s Sun people at all.

  9. If Carine is anything like late 20’s or 30’s female litigation lawyers or barristers that I know, Duckie, all that would be left of you would be a skidmark …

  13. scorps,

    all of the people present at the hearing are because of the inane, totally unbelievable nonsense

    We all seek the unattainable word for that precisely!

  14. I take my glasses off because I’m now telling the truth. Alternatively, I am to be treated gently.

    Leveson and counsel must be laughing in their innards!

  17. Interesting to watch how the fourth estate witnesses develop.

    So far, they have all been shown up for their utter lack of any personable quality.

  21. [Wright says in his statement that payments have been made to public officials.

    He describes the recipients of these payments as mostly “people in the armed forces who have been party to something that has happened in a war zone which they think needs to be brought in public attention”. ]

    This one is going to hurt if it is already known who the payments were made to. I bet they are! And i bet they aren’t in the armed services.

    I really can’t see how these people can justify the money that that they were paid for doing such a transparently terrible job. They can’t even lie competently. 😉

  22. No surprise to see that the SMH hasn’t changed with the new year:

    [Yet she changed history. You might argue that if it had not been her it would have been someone else. But it was her. A grocer’s daughter from Grantham, revolutionising not just her own party but Labour. Thatcher shifted the ground. Without her, Blair would have been unthinkable. Without her, Britain would have been Portugal. Thatcher paid the price.

    We have no such leaders here. They pop up, we behead them like weeds. Julia Gillard has her Iron Lady rep and I suppose she has her principles – mainly ambition and survival. On the toothless carbon tax, and the mining tax, she talks brave, cops the flak, but she does not actually do the deed.

    Gillard suggests more farce than tragedy – Shampoo, perhaps? – but if it’s Shakespeare we’re talking, she’s more Macbeth than Lear. This ambition-driven knifing of a loved mentor and colleague casts Kevin Rudd as both the murdered Duncan and Banquo’s vengeful ghost.

    Gillard has no teacup, but she has red hands. We are her witches, prophesying and catalysing her fate, and Alan Jones is her (cane) toad, first into the pot.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/wanted-leaders-with-principle-and-purpose-whether-right-or-wrong-20120111-1pv7j.html#ixzz1j9eQiL2A
    ]

  24. I’m watching as well but there are some good ‘cracks’ in the tweets from time to time as well as people who ‘know stuff’ – eg provide quick links to the specific stories/photos being discussed.

  25. [He denies that there was a “cover-up” and says his managing editor “simply didn’t alert me” to the activities of Whittamore. “I don’t think it occurred to anybody that he might be doing illegal things,” Wright says.

    “He’s not somebody who deliberately hides things from me. He’s somebody who sometimes doesn’t mention things to me because there’s a possible risk in them,” he says.]

    The first thing I thought of when I read this was AWB………………………

    Blimey, I wonder why that thought hit me so suddenly.

    How silly do these gits really think most of us are????????????????

    No answer required. Doesn’t need one. 😉

  26. [Gillard has no teacup, but she has red hands. We are her witches, prophesying and catalysing her fate, and Alan Jones is her (cane) toad, first into the pot.]

    Did Lewis Carrol write that article?

  27. Anyone else pleased to see Thierry doing the stuff for The Arsenal? That goal was pure Thierry!

    The Arsenal was written off after five weeks of the league. Just look at them now!

  30. [1.09pm: The inquiry has now broken for lunch, after which Peter Wright will resume giving evidence. ]

    Blimey, if it’s anything like the first part, This cove is going to have the biggest and most interested audience that he ever has had in his whole life! 😉

    And going by what I have seen so far, he deserves it too! 😉

    What a tool!

  31. 1.14pm: Here is a lunchtime summary of today’s evidence so far:

    • Peter Wright, editor of the Mail on Sunday, says he was “uncomfortable” to learn his journalists had used private investigator Steve Whittamore.

    • The Mail on Sunday paid Whittamore a total of £20,000 to trace information on people, Wright tells Leveson.

    • Wright says the Mail on Sunday still sanctions cash payments; the biggest in recent years was £3,500.

    • Paul Silva, picture editor of Daily Mail, calls for training for freelance photographers.

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jan/11/leveson-inquiry-peter-wright-live

    Now, there’s a toolbox!

  36. [Bilbo should publish PB2011 as a book. ]

    George has some good “cover” material for such an undertaking I understand. 😉

    It might be better to not encourage Bilbo too much in that direction! -;)

  37. Scorps,
    George takes his commissions very seriously. I am sure his cover would be out-standing or at least standing out. 😉

  39. I wss just thinking what a quiet morning for Labor bashing on the #MSM. But of course, we can always rely on the old faithfuls. A combination of the Daily Terror, Craig Thompson, Steve Lewis and A Senior Labor Official:

    [Craig Thomson sends invitations to a $3000-a-head fundraiser at Aria restaurant, without telling Labor HQ. Exclusive by Andrew Clennell and Steve Lewis The Daily Telegraph January 12, 2012 12:00AM – HE is under police investigation in two states but that has not stopped Craig Thomson sending invitations to a $3000-a-head fundraiser at the prestigious Aria restaurant, without telling Labor head office about it.

    The January 23 fundraiser will feature the embattled federal Labor MP Mr Thomson’s Canberra flatmate and frequent public defender, Trade Minister Craig Emerson, as the main speaker, according to a flyer.

    It reads: “All proceeds supporting Labor candidates.”

    Labor insiders yesterday admitted to confusion that Mr Thomson would hold such a fundraiser when his endorsement to run again for the seat of Dobell in a fortnight is looking very doubtful, to say the least.

    A senior Labor official said yesterday that he only became aware of the fundraiser at Aria after being informed by The Daily Telegraph yesterday.

    “I’m trying to have a fundraiser – as we do all the time. As far as I’m aware all MPs in NSW were told it’s in their interests to have fundraising events,” Mr Thomson said yesterday.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/craig-thomson-sends-invitations-to-a-3000-a-head-fundraiser-at-aria-restaurant-without-telling-labor-hq/story-e6freuy9-1226242102800

  40. The new Battle of Britain, this time over the not so United Kingdom. They already have separate football & Rugby team, so why not a separate country:

    [Scotland warned it could lose the pound and be forced to join Euro as price of independence. Scotland may be forced to join the Euro as the price of independence from the United Kingdom, Downing Street warned today.

    A spokesman for David Cameron said there were no guarantees that the Scots could keep sterling if they voted against remaining affiliated with the rest of the union.Mr Cameron’s spokesman said: “Once you start asking the question about independence, one part of that is what currency to have. Would Scotland retain the pound, and if so, how does that work? Or does it join the euro? That’s one part of the independence question.”

    Other issues which Downing Street said would need ironing out are shared defence capabilities, the national debt and border security. A carve up of assets between England and Scotland could leave both countries facing years of legal wrangling.]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/9007878/Scotland-warned-it-could-lose-the-pound-and-be-forced-to-join-Euro-as-price-of-independence.html

    What I want to know is who gets Chuck and Camilla.

  41. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    #ABCNews24 reported ACT’s biggest export, the Porn Industry, is in trouble and seeking stimulus package to stiffen it from the Government
    5 seconds ago

  42. Good Morning, Bludgers!

    The “Bob Brown has cancelled his meetings with Julia in protest” meme has been bootstrapped this morning across the TV news shows.

    I have written to Bob Browns media adviser asking for clarification. Will let you know what I get back.

  44. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    It looks like Pandora’s box has been opened.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/defence-hit-with-flood-of-sex-claims-20120111-1pvqi.html
    See if you can get through this esoteric piece on Abbott’s style. I bet you can’t.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/fleetfooted-abbott-needs-to-be-playmaker-20120111-1pv7i.html
    The management of the Murray-Darling system is just about too hot to handle.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/we-can-win-river-murray-fight/story-e6frea6u-1226242099333
    Baptisms and Christenings are little more than social/fashion statements these days – not that I’m complaining.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/broken-promises-upsets-churches/story-e6frea6u-1226242123848

  45. Christ! And I thought I could stretch a metaphor a tad too far:

    [We looked at Kevin Rudd through a similarly optimistic lens. As prime minister, Rudd gave a public appearance of being a polymorphic heterophil but history illustrates that the image was powder-coated in spin.
    …
    There’s a big space out there to be filled by a polymorphic heterophil who can play at five-eighth.

    Dr Richard Stanton teaches political communication at the University of Sydney. Twitter: @silvermullet]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/fleetfooted-abbott-needs-to-be-playmaker-20120111-1pv7i.html#ixzz1jBSK3Vfs

  50. You’rew right, BK. I can’t
    [Dr Richard Stanton teaches political communication at the University of Sydney. Twitter: @silvermullet

    twitter

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/fleetfooted-abbott-needs-to-be-playmaker-20120111-1pv7i.html#ixzz1jBbFmrsO ]

    And this guy teaches political communication? Warning:avoid Uni of Sydney politics classes.

    Risbane’s ref to an Elizabeth Farrelly piece also compelled me to look her up. She seems to have a reasonable academic background. But on that piece, she makes Judith Sloane look like a moderate. I’m surprised IPA and The Drum haven’t snapped her up. It’s the type of bile you’d expect from Miranda Devine.

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