Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. [Meanwhile, an Australian customs ship is heading south to retrieve the three anti-whaling activists who illegally boarded another Japanese ship.]
    I wonder who will be footing the cost of this?

  2. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501712_162-57356733/new-wave-of-asylum-seeker-boats-raises-aussie-ire/

    [January 11, 2012 4:51 AM
    New wave of asylum seeker boats raises Aussie ire

    (AP) CANBERRA, Australia — The asylum seekers who head to Australia in rickety fishing boats are just a trickle in the global flow of refugees. But given the top-tier debate they have ignited in Australia, they might as well be an invading armada.]

    Associated Press story circulating overseas

  4. Mod Lib @ 1497

    You may be interested to know that the Theresa Gamboro story even made it into the Singaporean newspapers!

    Must make you really proud to identify yourself with her party.

  5. Hi all. Those who want to talk about renewable aviation fuels would do very well to follow recent posts from the very knowledgeable Mr Sandilands on the Plane Talking blog on this same site.

    Those want to talk about VFTs without looking too silly might care to follow discussions on some of the forums over on http://www.railpage.com.au . Some of these are the work of enthusiasts, some are from very experienced rail operations and infrastructure people.

    My own conclusion from the railpage discussions is that proponents of VFT for Australia are off
    (1) with the fairies
    (2) with absurd sums of public money in support of their enthusiasm and
    (3) the point, which is to upgrade the proper railways for their real task of shifting freight in a safer way than , say, running B-doubles through little towns and over little sleeping children. But there are a range of other views available and argued for there too.

  7. [So youse be baaaaaack ? Go to The Satay Club or if you be posh the nearby Singapore Cricket Club for a dry ma mee soup. Or maybe a vile durian at Newton Circus ]

    You can’t get rid of me that easy!

    Sounds like you know a little about Singapore lah?

  8. [PaulBongiorno Paul Bongiorno
    Still in holiday mode. 7.30 tonight on ABC shows the SA Libs have twigged to the Nats river agenda. Tony Abbott will have to choose.
    47 seconds ago]

  9. Let us ground all commercial aircraft for a month and see what disasters befall us. Might be a take-up on video conferencing.

  11. Wow. Despite the flak from certain Bludgers, the new MacBook Pro is working excellently well. Have just checked out the Leveson link provided by TlBD. Thanks. Perfeck.

    Also, the TV is still working. I’m just hoping that the Truckwit has a long holiday. I can’t afford a new TV at the moment.

  12. [Must make you really proud to identify yourself with her party.]

    I think it was a storm in a teacup personally…

    proud? huh?

    malaysian rendition, mandatory detention, freezing asylum seeker applications from afghanistan and Sri Lanka, Whitlam and East Timor, Whitlam and Vietnamese refugees in the 70s, and what was that other guys name, just can’t remember it , Evat or something like that….

    …anyway, my point is that neither major party has a clean record on these issues.

  15. Mod Lib

    [Sounds like you know a little about Singapore lah?]
    Maaate I be the first person to run down the Stamford Raffles Hotel fire escape. A mere unairconditioned 71 stories.

  20. poroti,

    wouldnt Raffles provide a volunteer for you to land on if you jumped those 71 stories?

    7 star service in Asia must be slipping…

  22. […anyway, my point is that neither major party has a clean record on these issues.]

    So therefore it’s ok for you to support the worse of the two?

    You haven’t changed a bit Mod Lib over the break.

    Always more Lib than Mob!

  30. Mod Lib

    [poroti,

    wouldnt Raffles provide a volunteer for you to land on if you jumped those 71 stories?

    7 star service in Asia must be slipping…]
    The lift went at warp speed straight from the ground floor to the 71st and the worlds highest bar. Walking through the fire door up there I found that it was a one way door. The option was pound on the door and hope for rescue or go down………all the way down. Having imbibed the minimum amount of alcohol to access the bar it “seemed a good idea at the time” to run down the 142 flights to the ground floor 🙂

  32. [Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink
    Always more Lib than Mob!

    Mod, of course]

    Thanks for the correction! for a minute there I thought you were accusing me of being part of the ‘family’!

  34. GG
    I agree with that – though some other longterm data on the UK I have seen on inflation way back (to c.15th or 16th century “only”) shows no systemic positive inflation rate – until that pesky concept of democracy started to take root in late 19th/early 20th century

  35. Jay, wtte “Please understand before one of us dies!”

    Gives up on that issue.

    Now on to photoshopping. Paul does Schultz.

  38. [Having imbibed the minimum amount of alcohol to access the bar it “seemed a good idea at the time” to run down the 142 flights to the ground floor ]

    U R a legend.

    No mobile phones back then eh?

  39. [Tony Truckwit will find a way into your hard-earned.]

    Erm, my senses are alarmed. Bells are sounding. No dark alleys for this little soldier. Not with an Abbott rampart.

  43. poroti

    I had a swim in the Marina Bay Sands infinity pool today….WOW. Thats one hellavu feat of construction and a spectacular view too. Would have loved to have seen it at night though…

  50. Mod Lib

    [poroti

    I had a swim in the Marina Bay Sands infinity pool today….WOW. ]
    Wow it is. I read an article a couple of days ago about the place. I be jealous. It looked truly amazing and scary in equal quantities. Lucky Mod Lib. You could see the Cricket Club and the Satay Club from there 🙂 Sour Sop juice on ice Mmmmmmm.

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