Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  4. [Is there any word on Abbott? Is he on leave? Ill? It seems weird that he hasnt be around to answer questions on Gambaro]

    Tony has just disappeared, which he is wont to do. Actually, as he has no role in government, no one gives a rats’ arse whether he is clogging the airwaves or not. It wasn’t too long back that the period up to Australia day was politics free.

  5. bemused

    [Business is on the case and is ramping up to produce biofuel from algae. See this report from yesterday Aurora Algae’s green light to capital raising]
    Without naming anyone, as someone who is involved in algae, I have become aware that there are a number of companies who supply metrics which are, to put it kindly, a little optimistic 😉 The theoretical possibilities however are fantastic and well worth pursuing. We were to do a joint venture with a coal fired power station and the metrics of just a 200megawatt power station are pretty sobering. Be it the cubic meters a second emitted or the fact that to sequester even this modest plant you are talking about a couple of thousand tons of algae a day. Keeping in mind that even 1 gram of algae per liter culture is pretty high you get the picture re volumes of water. Water in ponds that will not be deeper than about 300mm. So imagine the volume of flat land that must be conveniently nearby ? And the mega mega litres of water.

  11. [Is there any word on Abbott? Is he on leave? Ill? It seems weird that he hasnt be around to answer questions on Gambaro]

    Abbott goes on camping holidays this time every year down in the Jervis Bay direction.

  12. bemused

    Sydney Harbour Bridge

    NSW Govt – Sydney Harbour Bridge Act No. 28

    Snowy Mtns

    NSW owns 58% Vic owns 29% and The Feds own 13%.

    So yes you are wRONg.

  15. poroti @ 1455
    That was just one of a number I have heard of. It just happened to appear in the press yesterday.

    I heard a program on ABC radio, one of their science programs, where they had a researcher from Townsville where work was being done.

    Yes, lots of land and water required and Australia has lots of land that is of not much use for agriculture and the sea provides abundant water if you use an algae that grows in salt water. It really does seem to me to hold a lot of promise.

  16. [I gave up on 3aw a few years ago. Got sick of the Labor bashing]

    Yep. That Mitchell is an oily piece of work who has the gall to call himself a journalist. It’s all very subtle. He professes to be fair and reasonable, but there is always the sting, the entrapment. I remember his cozy chats with Kennett. The love-ins. Puke making.

  18. Scringler

    Mitchell pised me off with his sycophantic supportmof Howard and Bush invading iraq. It was vomit inducing. I managed to get through to him one morning to express my disgust, and he cut me off

  20. bemused

    [poroti @ 1455
    That was just one of a number I have heard of. It just happened to appear in the press yesterday.

    I heard a program on ABC radio, one of their science programs, where they had a researcher from Townsville where work was being done]
    Ah, that would have been Dr Kirsten Heimann JCU. She is brilliant, I have met her at a number of conferences. Yes we have lots of land and lots of sunshine and even water so yes algae is worth a look. However power stations were not sited at places with the best for algae in mind. I am waaaaaaaay sceptical re algae sequestering CO2 from power stations but it has a brilliant future in the production of protein on non arable land using non potable water. Heck it be half of what I do. It comes down to simple metrics when it comes to power stations. The station I spoke of is way more efficient than the Victorian ones so the numbers would be even more depressing there. What a number of power companies were/are doing is latching on to various algae companies for use as “green” fig leaves. It was what was going to happen to us until the power company struck financial probs.When they offer shed loads of money it is hard to say no. Even when you know that you are being used as a green credentials fig leaf. You should have heard what the companies boss cocky engineer said about geosequestration. Another figleaf.

  21. From ABC website

    Algae the fuel for future vehicles
    By Nathalie Fernbach
    Tuesday, 18/11/2008
    While algae may not usually inspire enthusiasm, if you realise it could produce a low emission biofuel while also consuming carbon dioxide it starts to look very interesting.

    Andrew Lawson is the Managing Director of M-B-D Biodiesel Limited, a company that’s developing an algae biofuel system in Australia.

    He’s outlined the idea at the North Queensland Energy Forum in Townsville.

    Mr Lawson says the algae feed on C02 and the oil they produce is suitable for use in plastics and as a fuel while their waste product is a protein-rich meal which is suitable for stockfeed.

    Not all algae is equal in the fuel stakes.

    “We’ve picked the strains that are very high in oil and that generate every 24 to 48 hours.”

    “You are able to get algaes that are 80 percent oil but that take 7 or 8 days to generate, we’ve tried to balance the high yield of oil and the high generation or high multiplication rate.”

    Mr Lawson explains that very few modifications would be needed to cars or machinery in order to run them on the algae biofuel and they would emit only about a quarter of the emissions they do using mineral-based fuels.

    “We don’t see any of the high levels of sulphur, we don’t see any of the nasty other waste products coming through the process,” he said.
    In this report: Andrew Lawson, managing director, MBD Biodiesel Limited.

  22. bemused

    The point I was trying to make is if most Australian were asked about great Aussie Engineering feats many would cite the Snowy and Harbour Bridge.

    But most would also fail to realise that the Federal Govt had very little to do with either project.

  23. Calm down, Bludgers. Sigh in relief that the Truckwit is not fouling the TV screen. The dogs are resting easy. Snoring gently. No bristling. They have no respect for Abbotts.

    This is spooky, but since TA has gone missing, the old AWA TV has decided to work. Is this a modern miracle?

  24. poroti @ 1470
    Yes, that would be the person. I went looking for it and couldn’t find it.

    The idea of using the algae to sequester CO2 from a coal fired power station didn’t really impress me as the CO2 is released as soon as you burn the fuel produced from the algae.

    Agree completely with what you say about green fig leaves.

    Since you are really into this stuff and I am just an interested lay person, what’s the latest on magnetohydrodynamics? Has that gone anywhere?

    I heard a program about it years ago and it was supposed to dramatically increase (double?) potential power output for a given amount of coal burnt.

  25. bemused

    Sorry mate but anyone talking of biodiesel from algae should be taken as not too far removed from former Nigerian Oil Ministers. Seriously I am in the game and done the math. Have a chat with Dr Michael Borowitzka Australia king of algae and he will set you straight in that regard. You can get great lab results and great oil content results but is is usually by “red lining” the algae’s metabolosm and like a car it goes great for a little while. It also involves single strains. The old mono culture. Go outside and all sorts of “wild” algae blow in. I have followed MDB changing claims for a number of years.

  26. ruawake @ 1472
    I thought the Commonwealth was heavily involved with the Snowy Scheme.

    Harbour Bridge was a NSW Govt project but of course it did not service anything like 90% of the population of NSW. Only a minority of the Sydney population and was vastly in excess of the capacity required at the time.

  27. bemused

    [The idea of using the algae to sequester CO2 from a coal fired power station didn’t really impress me as the CO2 is released as soon as you burn the fuel produced from the algae.]
    There is also the sad fact that coal fired power station flue gases have a number of nasty components which algae are great for sucking up. So what do you do with the millions of tons of algae with heavy metals etc ?

    As for magnetohydrodynamics it be way out of my area of expertise. Check out “The basics” and be afraid ….very afraid 🙂 http://tiny.cc/gr41g

  28. TKBD

    Tone is in the ACT? Hie him thence! We’re on political vacation till 7 Feb!

    can’t wait till 7 feb – believe there are a few ‘specials’ lined up in qt for him!

  29. Scringler,

    Shortly, your wife will return from her affair with your best friend, the drought will break and the pub will have cold beer on tap.

  30. poroti @ 1477

    To the best of my recollection, the idea was that you could somehow generate electricity from the flow of exhaust gasses from burning the fuel. That is on top of what you generated from the conventional turbine and generator.

  31. bemused

    [The idea of using the algae to sequester CO2 from a coal fired power station didn’t really impress me as the CO2 is released as soon as you burn the fuel produced from the algae]
    Forgot to add that it is actually very good. Yes the carbon emitted originally came from fossil fuels BUT having been captured by the algae and used for fuel it means that the fossil fuel carbon has produced two bangs for your buck rather than one. Thus reducing total emissions. Biogas be the way to go. All carbon emitted came from plants that captured it from the atmosphere. Carbon neutral.

  32. bemused

    [poroti @ 1477

    To the best of my recollection, the idea was that you could somehow generate electricity from the flow of exhaust gasses from burning the fuel.]
    An old idea and you will be pleased to know that it is being implimented at a great rate of knots in combind Heat and Power units (CHP). Run you gas generator and you get about 33% efficiency run it as a combined heat and power unit and energy efficiecy climbs to about 66% efficiency.

  34. poroti @1482
    I don’t think that is quite the same as what I heard about.

    It was something about magnetic fields and the flow of hot gasses generating more electricity.

  35. bemused

    [It was something about magnetic fields and the flow of hot gasses generating more electricity.]
    I think you heard about the snake oil stuff about magnets increasing fuel efficiency in cars. They were a hoot back in the 1980’s 🙂 Sadly not up to the standard of the 1970’s and Joh Bjelkie ‘s water driven cars.

  36. poroti @ 1485
    No, it wasn’t in that class of lunacy and seemed like serious science. But of course what may be theoretically possible is not always practical.

  42. http://www.radioaustralianews.net.au/stories/201201/3406301.htm

    [Japanese whaler ordered to leave Australian waters
    Last Updated: 27 minutes ago

    The Australian Government has ordered a Japanese whaling ship to leave Australian waters.

    The government has confirmed the ship was sitting off the World Heritage Listed Macquarie Island in the Southern Ocean.

    Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard says Japan has been told its whaling vessels are not welcome in Australian territorial waters.

    Meanwhile, an Australian customs ship is heading south to retrieve the three anti-whaling activists who illegally boarded another Japanese ship.

    The three Australians scaled the Shonan Maru 2 over the weekend to demand the whaling security ship leave Australian waters.

    Japan has decided not to press charges because the men were unarmed and did not cause any damage to the boat.

    Ms Gillard has rejected calls for the Australian Government to send a patrol boat to monitor future whaling seasons on the Southern Ocean.]

  47. Well, well, well….PB is back online for 2012. Happy New Year everyone.

    You may be interested to know that the Theresa Gamboro story even made it into the Singaporean newspapers!

    …oh and poroti, the bananas are $1.9 AUD per kg in town (but I heard from the taxi driver you can get a bunch for a buck in the burbs out here!

  49. Mod Lib

    […oh and poroti, the bananas are $1.9 AUD per kg in town (but I heard from the taxi driver you can get a bunch for a buck in the burbs out here!]
    So youse be baaaaaack ? Go to The Satay Club or if you be posh the nearby Singapore Cricket Club for a dry ma mee soup. Or maybe a vile durian at Newton Circus 🙂

  50. A 500mm long lens but they don’t always use it.

    You don’t use that sort of lens for your snaps. The use of that lens is prima facie evidence of not-very-nice doing.

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