Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

Comments Page 29 of 37
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  8. AG Roxon did a great job this week, pushed the correct buttons, got the correct result, made Bob Brown look stooopid. Well done Nicola.

  12. OPT @ 1386
    Interesting comments, but you omit reference to the Sydney – Melbourne air route being a very busy one by world standards. Surely any fast train would draw a lot of patronage from this air route. That would be a good thing in terms of carbon footprint, but the airlines would be the big losers and none too happy.

    Also, a lot of your discussion is relevant to operating costs rather than construction costs.

  14. [Interesting comments, but you omit reference to the Sydney – Melbourne air route being a very busy one by world standards.]

    QANTAS is going to sit back and not play silly buggers with ticket pricing?

  15. [AG Roxon did a great job this week, pushed the correct buttons, got the correct result, made Bob Brown look stooopid. Well done Nicola.]

    BB also spits the dummy, feeling unloved and cancelled regular meeting with PM Gillard.

    Horsey, Horsey, BB needs you.

  16. The transport future of Australia is rail: it is not dependent on any one power source.

    Everything about train travel (check-in, comfort, …) is better than air. With VFTs, time is not an issue.

  17. ruawake @ 1414

    QANTAS is going to sit back and not play silly buggers with ticket pricing?

    They might, but I doubt they could sustain it fro long enough to pose a threat.

  20. [They might, but I doubt they could sustain it fro long enough to pose a threat.]

    QANTAS why is the Govt spending $100 billion to cannabalise our air route?

    Answer ??? plus include voters outside of NSW and Victoria.

    It will never happen unless State Govts decide to fund it.

  22. [I agree. But I think the Federal Govt would need to be involved too.]

    It will never happen.

    Why is there a VFT between Syd-Melb and not Adel-Perth. Heck where is the VFT to Hobart.

    The Federal Govt should be identifying and paying for transport corridors. Then let the States decide what to build.

  23. Speaking of fast rail versus air lines, some expert on 3aw said yesterday that only jet fuel can power aeroplane engines and renewable energy will never be able to do it. Which raises the obvious question (assuming he is right) what is going to happen when the oil runs out – as it surely will? Will air travel, such as we know it, become a thing of the past?

  24. Ru,

    Regardless of the computer system, the latest figure they should be able to provide (work to) is the end of the previous month.

  25. Spacey, rua,

    There is ALWAYS paper back-up or n iterations of backup which can be loaded on a parallel system.

    These days, it’s a wonder that companies who depend on computers don’t have twin configurations. They’re cheap enough.

  27. [Ru,

    Regardless of the computer system, the latest figure they should be able to provide (work to) is the end of the previous month.]

    But they allow day trading of shares. Until the 28th Nov 2011 it used to be weekly settlements with Macquarie Bank, now it is day trading with UBS. Problem is the merger with West Super screwed everything.

    Australias largest super fund is not trading.

  29. Darn

    [Speaking of fast rail versus air lines, some expert on 3aw said yesterday that only jet fuel can power aeroplane engines and renewable energy will never be able to do it.]
    As it turns out I have been tangentally involved in the very topic. Biofuels are in fact a “live” prospect to power jets. Air NZ amongst others have powered jets using biofuels. Amazing to many is the uber effort put in to renewables by the US military. Probably more than pretty much anyone. Anyways biofuels for jet aircraft is very much on the radar and has been done already. In fact a kiwi outfit supplied algae based jet fuel for such (successful) trials. Technically it is been there done that. It is now down to economics.

  30. ruawake @ 1422

    Why is there a VFT between Syd-Melb and not Adel-Perth. Heck where is the VFT to Hobart.

    I suspect only Sydney – Melbourne would have sufficient patronage at present with Canberra thrown in as it is sort of between the two. Brisbane would probably be next in line.

    VFT to Hobart? Yeah sure. They already have subsidised ferrys and fair enough too.

  31. rua,

    A fund not trading, for a short while, may not be a bad thing. Plenty of other things they can spend their time on, like improving management performance.

  35. [Speaking of fast rail versus air lines, some expert on 3aw said yesterday that only jet fuel can power aeroplane engines and renewable energy will never be able to do it. Which raises the obvious question (assuming he is right) what is going to happen when the oil runs out – as it surely will? Will air travel, such as we know it, become a thing of the past?]

    Synthetic jet fuel was tested recently, and successfully. Apparently they make it from coal or natural gas.

    http://www.downstreamtoday.com/news/article.aspx?a_id=18626&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

  39. A VFT would need to be like the NBN available to 90% plus of the population. Otherwise forget it.

    If it was economically viable between Syd-Melb it would be built by now. Funny that every consortium put together has decided to spend their bucks somewhere else.

  42. well don’t joke. vft
    ourgrandchildrens children may see a tunnel l under the bass strait
    nah. donot think so ,the population would have to be one million
    and the greens. will not allow that,
    funny 20 million dutchmen live in an area half the size of tasmania,
    and travelling in very fast trains all over the Nethetlands you would not have a clue their population.
    was that much.

  45. my say

    [funny 20 million dutchmen live in an area half the size of tasmania,]
    Sadly like the cuzzies over the Abel Janszoon Tasman Sea the land tends to be more vertical than horizontal 🙂

  46. [3aw is a bona fide Liberal mouthpiece]

    Correct, victoria. Up here past Bendigo, 3AW is not available, fortunately. But, and I’m guessing here, I bet they give the hapless Ted a good run.

  48. Hey victoria foget the herald scum

    [Burdened by a strong Australian dollar and a soft macroeconomic environment, Norsk Hydro today said it could reduce production at its Kurri Kurri aluminium plant in Newcastle, which employs around 500 people and has a total annual production capacity of 180,000 tonnes.

    Said Hilde Merete Aasheim, executive vice-president of Hydro’s primary metal business: “We will continue to stay in close dialogue with all affected stakeholders, including employees, unions and the local community throughout this process.” The executive added that ongoing customer demand will be served through its global metal products supply system.]

    Not exactly the same?

  49. ru @ 1439
    I can’t think of any major nation building project undertaken by the private sector.

    I don’t give any credence to your 90% of the population argument. Think Snowy Mountains Scheme, Sydney Harbour Bridge etc.

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