GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.
You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.
Before I go completely thermonuclear on Foxtel, does anyone here have an IQ2 (HD) with all the movie channels to test something for me?
rummel 😆
And, for once Confessions & I are in rare agreement on something. 😉
Julia…………the Arbib promotion is a dumb idea.
Shorten being elevated to Cabinet I’d endorse, but Arbib?
And like Confessions, I too am disappointed for Andrew Leigh, but his time will come in future.
Evan
Sort of agree about Car. have been asking why he is hated and all I get is he was a blue meany to Julia.
Carey
This is I think the reshuffle of a leader under pressure with only one solid factional support base – NSW right. Obvious dead wood not removed eg Ludwig
The only way to stop Arbib from being a Labor minister/shadow minister is to remove him from the Senate. Considering he was #1 candidate in 2007, it would mean in 2013-14, convincing the ALP to drop him to #3 at least, but #4 to be certain…
Doyley
That’s what I am tryi g to point out
Only she know our strengths, not us and definstley not a reporter
I have decided from now on to call them reporters like they did in the old days
Till I see big discusions written about policies and no gosipp
Carey
Who gives a dam about arbib. Where he is as, long as he does his job.
Not me ‘ not he man in the street will have a bet with u all
I bet this is all u talk about tomorrow
Dam shame if I am right
DOYL
Should be ever ones mentor
[At a strip club owned by Berlusconi?]
Berlusconi is no longer PM of Italy. Currently Italy is in crisis mode and the government under Monti (the new PM) is not interested in frivolity)
I put it down to the economy
Most people in the business community and the property, financial communities is aware that things are slowing and when they look to Canberra what they see is a Government that seems on a different planet.
What I want to know is what has Swan done wrong with the economy PVO?
[The only way to stop Arbib from being a Labor minister/shadow minister is to remove him from the Senate.]
That is unlikely to happen. Arbib, like the Minchin/Bernadi/Rhiannon equivalents on the opposite sides, will be in the Senate for as long as he wants .
My understanding is Assistant Treasurer is not a cabinet position so Arbib is still in the outer ministery.
Shorten is Victorian right.
If Correct re health for Tanya P. she is NSW left.
Will have to wait and see full details of the rest.
Whatever the PM did with this she would cop it, so good on her.
Dareyotread
I won my bet
Gloom doom the bearer of it
Carey:
I know. It was just too good an opportunity to pass up.
I think people are reading too much into this poll. Let’s face it Neilsen has been consistently worse for Labor over the year than the other polls.
I wonder if Kim Carr could prove to be destructive for this Prime Minister?
[I think people are reading too much into this poll. Let’s face it Neilsen has been consistently worse for Labor over the year than the other polls.]
True, while Newspoll has been better for Labor than the other polls.
The true picture is probably 55 Coalition, 45 Labor.
Yes doyley
Shows
what a strong position she is In and doing what she sees fit and correct
Do hope you stop by tomorrow as well
All this jumping at shadows
‘Left, right right left
Who cares
[I wonder if Kim Carr could prove to be destructive for this Prime Minister?]
Not now it seems.
A by-election in Kingston-Smith would be interesting but even the voters voted as they did in the last state poll then I suspect the ALP would hold
[This is I think the reshuffle of a leader under pressure with only one solid factional support base – NSW right. Obvious dead wood not removed eg Ludwig]
😆 of course it is.
That’s what leaders “under pressure” do: push their rivals as far outside as possible.
Doyley
Assistant treasurer is a VERY powerful position – controls the budgets of other ministers and therefore their success. Also not happy about having right wing ideologues in such a role.
re the poll. I think the Rudd issue in the MSM may have had some effect but if so It will be short term.
On the other hand it may not be anything at all except the ups and downs of polls at the moment
I still think we should take a deep breath. Too soon to judge anything either way.
I agree with the idea that the polls are around 55/45 – 54/46.
All is good.
Gees evan for once we agree I just did the av, on my calculator
Thsts what i came up with
Wonders never cease
I
[Also not happy about having right wing ideologues in such a role.]
The faction fight trick.
Has a new front bench been announced or are we guessing from rumor
Yes gary missed that point well spoken do u tweet
Mexicanbeemer, it must be true it was in the Murdoch press.
daretoread @122,
I would assume that would be the job of Finance Minister ?
I will stand corrected however.
cheers.
[Yes gary missed that point well spoken do u tweet]
No my say, I’m not up with that new fangled technology.
Thanks Steve
[Assistant treasurer is a VERY powerful position – controls the budgets of other ministers]
You’re thinking of the Finance Minister.
[Assistant treasurer is a VERY powerful position – controls the budgets of other ministers and therefore their success.]
Really? That’s news to me. Anyone?
I’m happy from the point of view that Rudd is still Foreign Minister, a very senior post in this government, and a job that he obviously enjoys. 🙂
As for the rest of it, Gillard owns it now, she’s got the chance over the next 6 months to rebuild Labor’s stocks, and I’m prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt.
My Say…and the Polls
_________________
Sorry My Say.
__________
..my view is that one must look at the two recent Federal Elections ,2007.2010,and there is no doubt of their accuracy…to less than !% off …in the case of Newspoll(sorry again)
This is a fact…in most Australian elections the polls converge and are generally right on the ball..state or federal…remember their predictions in NSW recently ..spot on!
So we know tha a poll now would give Abbott a huge victory…even a Senate majority too.
To say otherwise is living in fantasy land, My Say.
..and the polls WANT to be right,,it’s their job..their living
There are some issues running against Labor despite the miracle economy…many people feel unhappy…the Euro and US crisis doesn’t worrry them ,but the Tabloids have convinced them that theiy badly off !! Even mortgage cuts haven’t helped…why do you think that is so !??..the have now been two in two months ..no help
Also they don’t really like Gillard…she has never recovered from removing Rudd..and she’s a woman as you may know… and Australian voters usually kick such women out in the long run…see also Kirner,Lawrence,Kennelly. and soon Bligh(massively!!!)
I don’t think anything can save Gillard ,despite the blind optimism of some of this blog.who igore facts…that more comforting for them…
I recently went to a large Arab Community function to hear speakers on the “Arab Spring” but I was struck by the hostility of many there on the basis of Gillard’s pro-Zionist policy re the Palestinians and the UNESCO vote…a normally”leftist” community gone for all money(to the Greens mainly )and deeply hostile…bad news for the ALP in Western Sydney
[You’re thinking of the Finance Minister.]
Thanks fess, I thought that sounded off.
Arbib is not one of my favourite people but it’s not because of his faction. It’s more to do with ability and nous or lack there of.
[I recently went to a large Arab Community function to hear speakers on the “Arab Spring” but I was struck by the hostility of many there on the basis of Gillard’s pro-Zionist policy re the Palestinians and the UNESCO vote…a normally”leftist” community gone for all money(to the Greens mainly )and deeply hostile…bad news for the ALP in Western Sydney]
Oh really? Surprise, surprise. I bet they loved Howard.
deblonay Did I read you correctly when you suggested that Muslims may start swinging towards the Greens. this woulld be an interesting development
[To say otherwise is living in fantasy land, My Say.
..and the polls WANT to be right,,it’s their job..their living]
deblonay, like when Labor won this election:
Lib/Lab
September 11-13 1998 47 53
or this one:
Newspoll 6-8 February 2004 47 53
And how can we forget this one:
Newspoll 5-7 March 2004 45 55
Or this one:
Newspoll 19-21 March 2004 45 55
Or this one:
Newspoll 2-4 April 2004 47 53
What about this one:
Newspoll 16-18 April 2004 47 53
And this was bad:
Newspoll 14-16 May 2004 46 54
As was this one:
Newspoll 13-15 August 2004 46 54
I thought the whole point of giving the PM control over selection of cabinet was to take it out of the hands of the factions and was considered a good idea.
Whats changed ?
I bet I know the answer.
For once on Poll Bludger, almost unanimous agreement about Mark Arbib – who’d have thunk it? 😀
[I don’t think anything can save Gillard ,despite the blind optimism of some of this blog.who igore facts…that more comforting for them…]
I think you’re ignoring a few facts yourself but we’ll see.
Of course, all 103 members of the ALP caucus will be as powerful as they were before and after the reshuffle.
Arbib et al would also be guaranteed of cosy jobs under any hypothetical leadership challenger too…
Good night all, thanks for another stimulating discussion! 🙂
Daretotread
Finance is the portfolio wbich oversees the budget of other departments. Assistant Treasurer looks after things like the Tax Office
[Ms Gillard was prepared “to shoot people”]
The polls should shoot up for us now.
Mmmm. Guns, that takes in the farmers, the Nats and the Shooters Party.
Not to mention the fascists.
I mean, really, what sort of language is that 🙁
[who’d have thunk it?]
Proof that you only read what you want to see.
TLM..re Arbid
___________
you asked what isthes hold Arbib has over the PM…
Easy answer to that !
He is the White House Man in Canberra (and agent) in the Cabinet
We know from Assenge’s reports that he reports to the US Ambassasor,….and Gillard was like a love sick schoolgirl folliowng after the School Captain when Obama was here.
rather silly and a bit of the old Ossie Cringe to great allies
So that’s the answer
[Good night all, thanks for another stimulating discussion!]
Off for some photosynthesis?