Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. [Arbib

    What a joke, Labor is going to the NSW dogs.

    Its a trend alright.]

    Completely undeserving but that’s the beauty of being a powerbroker in ANY party, you get the plum, not in the public’s face, jobs.

  3. [Really not sure this is a smart reshuffle by Julia, the MSM will perceive her as rewarding those who got her into the top job and firming up her power base against any threat from Rudd & his supporters. ]

    Have to agree with you here. It’s not Rudd & his handful of supporters she has to worry about but Abbott & his crew.

    They are the ones who can take over Government after the next election!

  4. [Mod lib will u be back then also]

    I think that is highly likely based on past performance!

    Essential practically hasn’t changed all year has it???
    (when taking the margin of error into account of course). I would be surprised if it moved more than 1 notch in any direction.

    [I was not fooled by your graciousness in nz]

    No, I didn’t suspect you would be. But, I have fooled a number here, so my evil work is slowly taking hold and soon more and more will be under my spell (evil laugh, evil laugh).

  5. [Arbib’s never achieved anything noteworthy in terms of policy – the man’s only where he is because of his political headkicking skills. It’s a blow to Labor Party reform that such a dinosaur like him gets promoted.]

    If it keeps him too busy to do focus groups I’m all for it 😛

  6. I suspect the biggest influence on this poll (if it isn’t a rogue or at least on the outer edge of the confidence interval) was the beat up over politicians pay rises. That sort of thing is actually noticed by the public and always backfires more on the government than the opposition. Most of the other issues we discuss here with great erudition are simply not noticed by the public at all.

    It seems the government is doing a real “clearing the decks” exercise prior to the new year.
    ALP Conference out of the way – tick
    Politicians pay rises announced – tick
    Cabinet reshuffled – tick
    New media person in place – tick
    Kick Limited News in the teeth – tick
    etc etc

    I actually think they’re probably preparing for the possibility that Abbott does at least shift to a more positive approach. Most of the chess pieces are now in place for the government to go into promotion mode for the policies legislated in the past year. They’ll be given a bit of help by the apparent improvement at the international level to combating climate change.

    Sometimes I think we’re just as reactive to events on this blog as the MSM is. I’d be very surprised if the government isn’t thinking well ahead of the game currently being payed out in public. The PM has shown pretty good strategic skills this year – a bit of a tune up on the short term tactical side and I think we could be in for a very interesting 2012.

  7. To his discredit, Rudd cowtowed to Arbib as much as Gillard does – what’s the hold Arbib has over Labor Party leaders?

  8. Sam Maiden is all over this one.

    samanthamaiden samanthamaiden
    This sounds like the faceless man reshuffle that a minister told me on Saturday would go down like a sack of shit bit.ly/rwomWg
    20 minutes ago

  10. [Sometimes I think we’re just as reactive to events on this blog as the MSM is. I’d be very surprised if the government isn’t thinking well ahead of the game currently being payed out in public. The PM has shown pretty good strategic skills this year – a bit of a tune up on the short term tactical side and I think we could be in for a very interesting 2012.]

    well said

  11. Gillards reshuffle is simply keeping her friends close and her enemies very close.

    Arbib is a political thief with a knife in the night and i would be keeping the man linked to knifing so many Labor leaders very close indeed.

  12. Well he has an. M a
    and worked for. Bell Poster
    So let’s forget about the so called history
    We dont know what went on
    In june 2010
    All rumours and inuendo
    Never new shorten was asdt, treasure till recently
    Need some one I the senate to answer questions
    He ll do
    And he is loyal to julia so look on the up side
    don’t always loom for shadows jumping out from behi d does
    This poll has nothing to do with rudd, if u believe it.Its gay marriage
    uranium to india,

  13. Something of interest to readers of a political site…

    Trends in Australian political opinion: results from the Australian election study, 1987-2010
    http://aes.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/Trends%20in%20Australian%20Political%20Opinion.pdf

    Partial contents:
    1. The election campaign
    2. Voting and partisanship
    3. Election issues
    4. Politics and political parties
    5. The political leaders.
    6. Democracy and institutions
    7. Trade unions, business and wealth
    8. Social issues

    Some selected trends between 2007 and 2010:

    1. Not much difference between the parties has increased from 19% to 28%.

    2. Preferred party policy on IR – No difference between ALP & Coalition has increased from 8% to 20%

    on environment no difference between Lab & C has increased from 18% to 32%

    3. Perceptions of qualities of politicians have decreased on all dimensions (strong leadership, knowledgeable, inspiring, honest, trustworthy). Strong leadership has plummeted from 36% to 15%.

    4. Disatisfaction with democracy has increased from 14% to 29%.

    5. People in government can be trusted has decreased from 43% to 37%.

    6. Who the government is run for: Few big interests – 38% to 44%; All the people – 20% to 12%.

    7. Government control of Parliament: Better when govt does not control both Houses – 51% to 39%; Better when govt controls both houses – 31% to 40%.

    8. Favours spending more on social services has decreased from 47% to 34%.

  15. It’s designed to shore up her defences and isolate Rudd even further – could be counterproductive, because it’ll remind people how much she owes Shorten and Arbib in particular.

  17. My say, 41
    I think these polls are ripples on top of the water. Depending on which way the breeze happens to be blowing that day, the ripples are going one way or t’other, but it is surface stuff only. Underneath, there are powerful tides, running strong and deep. They have been running Tony Abbott’s conservatives’ way for a while, but now the tide is turning, and starting to flow back to Julia Gillard and Labor.

    The flow will encounter rocks and turbulence and may eddy about for a while, but I believe that once it takes hold, the water will run away from Abbott leaving him high and dry, stranded on a sandbar, not able to go ahead or retreat. The Labor ship will have good, deep water to hold her up.

    The magnet pulling the tide Labor’s way is not the breezes skimming across the surface, but the strong attraction of achievements in office and a leader taking everything thrown at her and still standing tall.

    (PB disclaimer: None of this is based on facts, figures or sourced materials, it is my subjective opinion.)

  18. Arbib promotion is either just a silly rumor or another mistake by the PM.

    Regarding Nielsen they have been consistently polling above the average favouring the Coalition so I think the 55/54 to 46/45 area is still the likely true situation. The PPM figures are surprising although the ongoing feud with wouldn’t be helping.

    I am still trying to come to grips with Arbib holding a finance portfolio.

  19. The polling was certain to drop for Labor following the Conference. Not sure why anyone expected anything else.
    1. Disunity on display – especially the perceived snubbing of Rudd. Just brought back all the rage of 2010 again. Silly, petty and an own goal
    2. Gay marriage lost jut a few but worse was the fact that it was neither yes nor no.
    3. Uranium – need to wait for preferences but I suspect that this may have shifted a wad of greenish voters from labor to Green then LNP
    4. Talk of reshuffle – makes people nervous
    5. More boats
    6. Abbott stayed silent

  22. Ajm

    To dam right to reactive, I trust julia. She knows what she is doing, and abib he may be good in this spot we dont know his strengths,

  23. [vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    With Swan & Arbib running the economy I might convert my Aussie dollars to Euros. #letsbesureandtakethejokeingoodhumourboys]

    The inevitable News ltd attack.

    Does this mean he approved of Shorten in his post? 😛

  25. This reshuffle is all about 2012.

    I have no idea about Arbib either way. Anyway, why be PM if you cannot reward those who support you ?

    Rudd still FM which is good.

    Have to wait for the actual announcement to pick through the entrails any further.

  26. Point 1: Samantha Maiden’s endorsement will do me. If she thinks the reshuffle is so bad it must be brilliant. Congratulations to the PM!

    Point 2: Arbib is probably actually pretty good at behind the scenes detail work – after all it’s probably the core skill of a factional operative. Make use of the skills of the available team! Especially if it means you can quarantine him from policy influence.

  28. Maybe the apparent Arbib promotion is just following Waylon Smithers logic? 😉

    [Smithers: I’ve got to find a replacement that won’t outshine me.
    Perhaps if I searched the employee evaluations for the word
    [types] “Incompetent”…
    [computer reports: 714 matches found]
    714 names? Better be more specific. [keeps typing] “lazy”,
    “clumsy”, “dim-witted”, “monstrously ugly”
    [computer searches, then reports: 714 matches found]
    Oh, nuts to this! I’ll just go get Homer Simpson.]

  29. So the general public
    would think there is a difference
    What’s mr shortens u I qualifications
    ha e not looked that oe up some may like to

  30. Confessions

    [vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    With Swan & Arbib running the economy I might convert my Aussie dollars to Euros. #letsbesureandtakethejokeingoodhumourboys]

    Back to the pacific peso?

  33. Kim Carr’s been a good industry minister, surely?
    So how do we explain his dumping from the ministry?
    Payback for a perception that he’s a Ruddite?

  35. rummel @74
    I find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with you. To win the next election, the oppos will have to cryogenically store Abbott until voting night.

  38. Carey Moore
    [Well, hate to break it to the fanatics but usually when a leader is able to drop backers of their rivals from cabinet, it means their claim to the leadership is tight.]
    Very perceptive point.

  39. I wouldn’t let Arbib run a ladder up a stocking, but I assume not everyone gets what they want, so we have to live with it.

  41. [Point 2: Arbib is probably actually pretty good at behind the scenes detail work – after all it’s probably the core skill of a factional operative. Make use of the skills of the available team!]

    Arbib has shown no policy or details nous in the time he’s been on the front bench. His promotion is all about reward and nothing to do with ability.

    Hopefully he will sink in the portfolio, and will then be well and truly on the outer.

  43. Puff

    [I find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with you. ]

    Dont worry you can get shots for this and symptoms only last for a shot time. You will be back to disagreeing with me in no time at all.

  44. Puff

    [I find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with you. ]

    Dont worry you can get shots for this and symptoms only last for a shot time. You will be back to disagreeing with me in no time at all.

  48. [Well, hate to break it to the fanatics but usually when a leader is able to drop backers of their rivals from cabinet, it means their claim to the leadership is tight.]

    Only the most fervent and die-hard of the Rudd Cultists would insist Gillard didn’t have the numbers in Caucus.

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