No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the latest exchange in the hundred years war between NSW Liberal Right faction rivals David Clarke and Alex Hawke. The Clarke faction (the “hard” Right) has unsuccessfully sought a Supreme Court injunction to prevent the Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill Young Liberal branches from participating in the preselection for Hawke’s federal seat of Mitchell. These were the very same branches involved in a famous episode before the previous election when the unanticipated arrival of 40 Clarke supporters prompted Hawke to call the police. The Herald report further relates that “up to a dozen” NSW MPs have defected from Clarke to Hawke’s “centre right”, among them Wollondilly MP Jail Rowell and upper house MP Matthew Mason-Cox, as they were “understood to be unhappy over their treatment by Mr Clarke and his colleague, Marie Ficarra”. This is presumably one of the reasons the Clarke candidate in Mitchell, Robert Picone, is not considered much of a chance.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on a widening in the long-simmering battle over Victorian Liberal Senate preselection. Previously the issue had been whether the number two candidate from 2007, Helen Kroger, would suffer demotion at the expense of the number three, Scott Ryan, who has since been promoted to a more senior parliamentary position. However, a split in the Costello-Kroger faction is now jeopardising the position of the number one candidate, Mitch Fifield. A Liberal source is quoted accusing Fifield of “engineering” Ryan’s push against his factional colleague Kroger, prompting the latter’s supporters to contemplate securing her position by moving to depose Fifield from the top of the ticket. With the Liberals thought likely to win three seats in the current electoral environment, Fifield’s enemies are said to be canvassing possible challenges from John Roskam and, perhaps a little fancifully, Peter Reith.
• A belated note, after much back and forth, about last week’s highly unfortunate Crikey system failures. I am delighted to be able to announce that it’s Ray Hadley’s fault. A story published by Crikey last Tuesday led to a mammoth spray against Tim Flannery and Crikey on Ray Hadley’s program on 2GB the following morning. As a result of Hadley’s outburst, Crikey received a massive spike in traffic to the website – so much so that the site’s servers could not handle the traffic increase and melted down two days in a row. Of course, these have not been Crikey’s only outages, and the broader difficulty remains of the system’s incapacity to cope under pressure. Management are now undertaking server cost analysis and preparing for IT/bandwidth increases.
SHY is certainly one confused little pussy cat.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2011/12/04/conscience-confusion-on-gay-marriage/
[Diogenes
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
kezza
2 weeks? you have to be kidding!
Suckholes.
So if a partner dies and the spouse attempts suicide in the first two weeks, you’d say there is no problem.
You missed your calling as a grief counsellor.]
I don’t understand what you’re saying.
I was saying that grief lasts more than two weeks.
As if I would say that a spouse isn’t susceptible to attempting suicide.
Think we’ve got the same edge of the wedge here.
[gusface
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:26 pm | Permalink
william
U are so so predictable
]
It’s Uni Hliday season 🙂
He needs some more pocket money 🙂
[bemused
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:09 pm | Permalink
Joe6pack @ 1449
In the end George ,Yes it is actually about what is best for me and mine.
as it is for everybody else.
How far does the ‘mine’ extend? Immediate family? Extended family? Friends and Neighbours? Your community?
And how do you define ‘best? A dog eat dog society or a more caring society with better opportunity for all?]
I define as any issue that is important to me .
AS not important
gay/same sex marriage not important
surplus /not important
fix the roads important
rights at work important
etc get the idea?
bemused
[So with 2 unsuccessful suicide attempts in the previous 10 days, including one near fatal, you wouldn’t treat with a panadol and discharge to an appointment in 6 weeks time?]
I have to put in a caveat that it’s not my area now but when I worked in Emergency, I would have pushed as hard as I could to admit that person.
Sometimes the psychiatrists would be reluctant to someone and it could become necessary to commit the patient as they have to be admitted and seen by a psychiatrist then.
[I hold no brief for the Telegraph, but there was indeed a Pansy Wong in NZ parliament until the start of this year, and it’s perfectly obvious that this was indeed an honest mistake.]
It was a mistake, but could the Telegraph have had a little joke calling Ying-yen Pansy, knowing they had an escape?
[etc get the idea?]
Yes, we certainly do. Selfish to the core. Typical right-wing voter
[Joe6pack
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
kezza2
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:18 pm | Permalink
joe6pack
answer the question, instead of having another go
What do you do for your local community?
prove where I have screamed blue murder?]
I was saying that if these “afflictions” happened to you, then you would scream blue murder.
But, of course, you prefer to understand the opposite.
Silly.
kezza
[As if I would say that a spouse isn’t susceptible to attempting suicide.]
Well you would be wrong. 20% of suicides occur as a result of an Adjustment Disorder.
Will Bob Katters daughter claim depression and a panic attack?
BH
[Just struck me that the only way the Greens and their supporters are ever going to get SSM up is to make sure more Labor pollies are elected than coalition.]
The reason SSM has not got up is due to Labor and the Coalition repeatedly voting together to defeat the five marriage equality bills introduced into the Senate by either the Democrats, or the Greens, or jointly by both parties in the last 7 years.
The last time there was such a defeat was 2009 when the Greens introduced the Marriage Equality Amendment Bill 2009 which was negatived in the Senate five to 45. In 2010 he Greens then re-introduced the same bill where it reached the second reading stage in the Senate.
So despite the fact that for years the Greens have done the heavy lifting on marriage equality advocacy, Labor is responding with:
[After the policy shift, Labor MP Stephen Jones said he would draft and move a private member’s bill to change the Marriage Act next year.
Greens MP for Melbourne Adam Bandt used Twitter to ask Mr Jones if they could co-sponsor a bill, and seek Liberal backers to bolster its chances of success.
But Mr Jones signalled Labor’s determination to own this change, against a backdrop of Coalition taunts that the Greens are dictating Labor policy.
”If the Greens are interested in an outcome, not just a headline, they’ll get behind us on this,” Mr Jones told The Sunday Age.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/i-do-labor-to-gay-marriage-20111203-1ocpc.html
In contrast: The Greens call for tripartisan co-sponsoring:
[Senator Hanson-Young said the Greens would introduce bills on same-sex marriage into both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
“Today I offer an open invitation to all members of parliament on all sides to co-sponsor those bills,” she said.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/alp-gay-marriage-vote-not-enough-greens-20111203-1ocab.html#ixzz1fYPoQBGP
It’s not the Greens who are seeking the headline.
Despite the belief put forward here and elsewhere, there are Green supporters who are not politically naïve. I, for one, and many more like me I would suggest, understand the politics from Labor’s perspective all too well.
Whatever the outcome of a vote on a bill for marriage equality and regardless of whose bill it is, my support stays with the Greens as they advocated for marriage equality years before there was popular support in the community for it.
Joe6pack @ 1504
No Joe, you did not respond to my specific questions.
Try again:
How far does the ‘mine’ extend? Immediate family? Extended family? Friends and Neighbours? Your community?
And how do you define ‘best? A dog eat dog society or a more caring society with better opportunity for all?
[george
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:31 pm | Permalink
etc get the idea?
Yes, we certainly do. Selfish to the core. Typical right-wing voter
]
Th “I’m All Right Jack” and “What’s In IT For Me” syndrome is alive and well in Joe’s World.
Just like those who support Abbott.
[Joe, it certainly isn’t always about what you or I can “get” out of our government and our country. Sometimes it’s about inclusion, about governing for minorities on issues that may not seem pressing to the majority, sometimes it’s about bringing those less fortunate up a notch while others more fortunate accept our turn might not come for some time, and often it is about implementing policies that you and I might not see an immediate benefit, but our children will.]
Hear, hear.
peg
sometimes u are 2 dark 4 words
this is one of those times
Malcolm Farr reporting possible Ministerial reshuffle. Possibly as soon as tomorrow.
GG
Fair dinkum?
Diogenes @ 1505
The patient was an inpatient in the Psychiatry Department of a major public hospital.
The patient also stated in an assessment the day before discharge that ‘he felt safe in the hospital but did not trust himself not to act on his impulses if outside’.
[Diogenes
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:32 pm | Permalink
kezza
As if I would say that a spouse isn’t susceptible to attempting suicide.
Well you would be wrong. 20% of suicides occur as a result of an Adjustment Disorder.]
Which part are you missing here?
Would you like to apologise
kezza
i suspect dio has lost himself in translation
I hope an apology from him is forthcoming
[farrm51 Malcolm Farr
Rumors of an impending reshuffle –maybe tomorrow — but PM’s office says no. Just rumours.
2 minutes ago Favorite Undo Retweet Reply ]
Malcolm Farr just throwing it out there. Would not suprise me at all, as JG has not changed Rudd’s ministry much. Bowen is one who could do with a spell in social welfare.
GG
Rudd to the backbench. 😉
bemused
[The patient also stated in an assessment the day before discharge that ‘he felt safe in the hospital but did not trust himself not to act on his impulses if outside’.]
Then I couldn’t comment as I have very little experience once patients are admitted. We do see quite a lot of people who attempt suicide after discharge from hospital.
[“I don’t think we can allow the media part of this conference to go without talking about the defacement of the press in this country, and who has defaced the press more than Alan Jones, Chris Smith, Ray Hadley and the Murdoch press?
“There are brilliant people working in the media in Australia, but there are some pompous prats out there who think they know it all.”]
Go Dooogie. 🙂
gussy
he must’ve misread
thanks for your support though.
I appreciate it.
@William/1497,
Daily Telegraph and Honest or mistakes don’t max a good combination.
Diogenes @ 1523
Why am I not surprised?
I was not playing hypotheticals. The patient was dead 28 hours after his 3rd discharge within 8 days.
kezza
Yes, sorry. I misread your second comment.
Well Joe6pack, how about a response to my 1512?
Just asks how you define 2 simple words.
[@William/1497,
Daily Telegraph and Honest or mistakes don’t max a good combination.]
I remember another honest mistake they made: presenting a “photocopy” of an email from “Godwin Grant” as proof Rudd was corrupt.
That “mistake” was some sheila in the graphics department’s fault.
bemused
The rate of a patient committing suicide in the first month after discharge is 200x that of the general population.
It’s a huge problem.
diog
cheers
plus
you’ll never know how much you helped my son with that maths assignment
(and puff too)
and I’ll never forget your help.
It was enough to turn a 2nd yr engineering student about to throw it in.
An update.
He’s started an IPP (industry placement program) and is loving it. He was about to throw the towel in before that.
It’s strange that such a little bit of maths gave him the impetus, but it did.
I have to thank you and puff for getting him through.
[That “mistake” was some sheila in the graphics department’s fault.]
Was she also from New Zealand?
@1463
lizzie,
Yes. Grief is all-consuming. Somehow, we must snap out and carry on. But I agree, I don’t wish to talk to anyone at this point because I just blub.
Has the Peg explained this yet?
[SHY is certainly one confused little pussy cat.]
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2011/12/04/conscience-confusion-on-gay-marriage/
Diogenes @ 1531
Let me suggest some names for the problem…
Premature discharge…
Negligent failure to treat…
Failure to follow mandated discharge planning protocols…
Breach of duty of care …
bluddy kiwis
😉
kezza
I must say I was very puzzled that you had written what I thought and I should have known better and checked it.
p @ 1511
[The reason SSM has not got up is due to Labor and the Coalition repeatedly voting together to defeat the five marriage equality bills introduced into the Senate by either the Democrats, or the Greens, or jointly by both parties in the last 7 years.]
tsk tsk
The real reason is obviously that neither the Greens nor the Democrats have ever managed to gain more than a very small minority of reps in the Senate and even fewer in the House.
Might it have had something to do with the package of policies they presented to the electorate?
The real questions here are these: ‘Where did the Dems and the Greens go wrong?’ ‘Why are around 85% to 90% of the population voting against them when they were so assiduously launching failed SSM Bill after failed SSM Bill?’
[SHY is certainly one confused little pussy cat.]
She needs to use more SH-Y
http://tinyurl.com/cdvf57t
[daretotread
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 11:34 am | Permalink
GG
It does not matter what Rudd thinks. It is what the electorate and media think. There seemed to be univeral media assessment that not a good look to ignore him.
I have said for the last year and a half that Gillards biggest mistake has been her lack of kindness and good will to Rudd. By playing the nasty, she fans the flames of those who think she is treacherous. She should have made glowing speeches which implied Rudd had been great but had somehow got sick or tired etc. Then she could play the heroine. By being nasty she loses this advantage.
Remember that when Rudd was PM whatever other Cabinet members may have experienced, she Gillard was one of the trusted gang of Four. She personally had not been badly treated. This means she personally needs to be kinder than kind to him. Let others, NEVER, NEVER, her do the nasties. Unfortunately she has not taken that advice.]
As I remember, after the overthrow her comments about Rudd were quite positive, mentioned there would always be a place in her cabinet, etc. Then came the leaking against her, right at the most critical stage of the election campaign.
Could be that has influenced what she has said about him since. I’m not sure if the squabble over Australia News or whatever it’s called might also have contributed. Gillard clearly believes she owes Sky/News Ltd no favours and might have been a bit annoyed about Rudd promoting them, as Conroy was.
It was, though, a silly omission considering Rudd’s key role in defeating Howard, delivering the Apology and leading the GFC stimulus. A couple of sentences alluding to that would have gone well.
I guess the problem would have been the News Ltd shills and their lackeys at the ABC and elsewhere running a line about the hypocrisy of praising someone she’d not long ago ‘assassinated’.
Joe6pack
Are you struggling with my 2 simple questions? I even suggested possible answers for them.
Here they are again:
k2 @ 1532
That is the best post I have read all day. Thank you.
On the Insiders replay they showed Abbott’s “nod” – I never get sick of watching it
BLUE MURDER!
[Are you struggling with my 2 simple questions? I even suggested possible answers for them.]
You’ll be waiting a long time bemused 😉
Hey, air suck of the sauce bottle.
The DT reps were obviously trying to distinguish an ‘honest’ mistake from their usual kinds of mistakes.
[Andrew Elder
@awelder
@acaderama @farrm51 Hopefully this means journosphere has finally given up on Impending Rudd Challenge. Reshuffle a comedown, what next?]
george @ 1546
I dunno why. Not all that hard really. Not meant to be tricky, but to help him clarify his thinking.
GG (and now others clamouring for me to respond)
[SHY is certainly one confused little pussy cat.]
Both the article and you are ignoring and, or, misrepresenting the context or circumstances at the time back in 2010, something anyone can find out by following the links embedded in the article @ http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2011/12/04/conscience-confusion-on-gay-marriage/
In January 1, 2010 she called for a conscience vote to be exercised by the two major parties on the Greens Marriage Equality Amendment Bill that she had re-introduced after being defeated the previous year. She repeated this conscience vote when she rose to speak to the Bill.
In 2010 the ALP’s national platform did not support gay marriage so Labor MPs would have been obliged to vote as a bloc in opposition or risk being expelled.
Hence SH-Y’s call for a conscience vote, as that was the only possible way that the Bill might have got up.
[I have a challenge for Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott – when my Marriage Equality Bill comes before Parliament today, I dare you to resist the urge to control … sorry, kill debate by insisting Senators toe the party line.]
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/man-up-kevin-and-tony-and-allow-a-free-vote-on-equal-marriage/#item2477
The circumstances are different now. The ALP at their 2011 national conference deliberately tied together a conscience vote on SSM with amending its policy in support of SSM.
By taking this action, rather than having separate votes, or advocating a bloc vote, the Labor Party has indeed “squibbed it”.