Weekend miscellany

No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:

• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.

• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the latest exchange in the hundred years war between NSW Liberal Right faction rivals David Clarke and Alex Hawke. The Clarke faction (the “hard” Right) has unsuccessfully sought a Supreme Court injunction to prevent the Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill Young Liberal branches from participating in the preselection for Hawke’s federal seat of Mitchell. These were the very same branches involved in a famous episode before the previous election when the unanticipated arrival of 40 Clarke supporters prompted Hawke to call the police. The Herald report further relates that “up to a dozen” NSW MPs have defected from Clarke to Hawke’s “centre right”, among them Wollondilly MP Jail Rowell and upper house MP Matthew Mason-Cox, as they were “understood to be unhappy over their treatment by Mr Clarke and his colleague, Marie Ficarra”. This is presumably one of the reasons the Clarke candidate in Mitchell, Robert Picone, is not considered much of a chance.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on a widening in the long-simmering battle over Victorian Liberal Senate preselection. Previously the issue had been whether the number two candidate from 2007, Helen Kroger, would suffer demotion at the expense of the number three, Scott Ryan, who has since been promoted to a more senior parliamentary position. However, a split in the Costello-Kroger faction is now jeopardising the position of the number one candidate, Mitch Fifield. A Liberal source is quoted accusing Fifield of “engineering” Ryan’s push against his factional colleague Kroger, prompting the latter’s supporters to contemplate securing her position by moving to depose Fifield from the top of the ticket. With the Liberals thought likely to win three seats in the current electoral environment, Fifield’s enemies are said to be canvassing possible challenges from John Roskam and, perhaps a little fancifully, Peter Reith.

• A belated note, after much back and forth, about last week’s highly unfortunate Crikey system failures. I am delighted to be able to announce that it’s Ray Hadley’s fault. A story published by Crikey last Tuesday led to a mammoth spray against Tim Flannery and Crikey on Ray Hadley’s program on 2GB the following morning. As a result of Hadley’s outburst, Crikey received a massive spike in traffic to the website – so much so that the site’s servers could not handle the traffic increase and melted down two days in a row. Of course, these have not been Crikey’s only outages, and the broader difficulty remains of the system’s incapacity to cope under pressure. Management are now undertaking server cost analysis and preparing for IT/bandwidth increases.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Weekend miscellany”

Comments Page 32 of 36
1 … 31 32 33 … 36

  6. In the senior ministery the only worthwhile change would be Mr Rudd to Immigration and Mr Bowen to Foreign Affairs.

    It is about time Mr Rudd, as putative prime minister, had some real life experience at the shit-eating end of town.

    OTOH, Mr Bowen deserves a reward for honing up on all that foreign affairs stuff involving asylum seeker policy.

    Maybe the AG should go as well.

    There should also be a shuffle of Parl Secs to allow some of the bright young things to a bit of a run.

  9. [I hold no brief for the Telegraph, but there was indeed a Pansy Wong in NZ parliament until the start of this year, and it’s perfectly obvious that this was indeed an honest mistake.]

    Bilbo has gone into Rupert’s good book. A phone call is imminent.

  10. Hey, anyone here with foxtel, are you finding channels are being bypassed when you use the “+” or “-” channel buttons? I’ve just gone through the movie channels and it’s bypassed SBS, then bypassed a whole lot of other channels and then gone straight to 100 without going through the usual channels that are there. Tried it from the second IQ2, same thing

  11. So when the Greens do a conscience vote it is noble and courageous but when Labor does it is ignoble and they are squibbing it.

    Looks like a reasonable explanation to me.

  16. Diogenes @ 1557

    I didn’t see anything new in that article.

    A strange omission was that they didn’t recommend properly informing carers so that they could be alert to danger signs.

  17. Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:56 pm | Permalink
    k2 @ 1532

    That is the best post I have read all day. Thank you.]
    You must have been missing that night BW

    Suffice it to say
    if I hadn’t been able to solve the problem, he would never have tried to beat me.
    Still haven’t told him it was PB who solved the problem – diog in fact.

  18. George
    [Hey, anyone here with foxtel, are you finding channels are being bypassed when you use the “+” or “-” channel buttons?]
    Mine working fine…in particular, very fortunately not skipping channel 857 😀

  19. Horsey @ 1563

    bemused,

    All you’ve got are 3 word slogans – you sound like Tony Abbott

    It is a reaction to your verbosity.

    Does not happen in any other circumstances.

  21. [I hold no brief for the Telegraph, but there was indeed a Pansy Wong in NZ parliament until the start of this year, and it’s perfectly obvious that this was indeed an honest mistake.]

    So, that’s all right then. A silly Kiwi sub. Cod help us if we import German ones.

  22. kezza2 @ 1567

    Still haven’t told him it was PB who solved the problem – diog in fact.

    Diog is one helluva smart tree surgeon.

  23. apropos the Pansy Wong headline in the Telegraph, does anyone know how newspapers operate in terms of processes for determining such matters…

    i.e. is is just up to a single “sub-editor” to determine the headline; is there no oversight from anyone else at all???

  24. [JacktheInsider
    @JacktheInsider
    @awelder Gossip is Roxon may soon have more time on her hands. @acaderama @farrm51]

    [JacktheInsider
    @JacktheInsider
    @sprocket___The goss indicates a demotion or the backbench. @awelder @acaderama @farrm51]

  26. george
    From Dec 1 Foxtel have changed a hell of a lot of channel numbers over. For instance the previous HD sports channels 203, 204, 205 no longer exist. Instead they are using the od SD 501,2,3 channels.

  27. just on foxtel customer service now – apparently it’s a known issue since the 1st of this month – thanks for letting us know 🙁

  30. [george
    From Dec 1 Foxtel have changed a hell of a lot of channel numbers over. For instance the previous HD sports channels 203, 204, 205 no longer exist. Instead they are using the od SD 501,2,3 channels.]

    the problem is, when I’m on 228 (sbs HD) and hit the “+” it takes me to 400!

  33. bemused

    good to see you’ve dropped the my say put-downs
    Now to see the dropping of the diogenes put-downs.
    Top of my CWL
    Oh, happy day!

  36. OK, here’s the list. Pretend you are Ms Gillard. Who would you leave, who shuffle, who promote, who demote and who sack?

    Inner Ministry
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard
    Deputy Prime Minister
    Treasurer Wayne Swan
    Minister for Finance and Deregulation Penny Wong
    Attorney-General Robert McClelland
    Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities Tony Burke
    Minister for Immigration and Citizenship Chris Bowen
    Minister for Trade Craig Emerson
    Minister for Foreign Affairs Kevin Rudd
    Minister for Defence Stephen Smith
    Minister for Health and Ageing Nicola Roxon
    Minister for Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs Jenny Macklin
    Minister for Regional Australia, Regional Development and Local Government
    Minister for the Arts Simon Crean
    Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy Stephen Conroy
    Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese
    Minister for Resources and Energy
    Minister for Tourism Martin Ferguson
    Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Joe Ludwig
    Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research Kim Carr
    Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (Australia) Greg Combet
    Outer Ministry
    Minister for Human Services
    Minister for Social Inclusion Tanya Plibersek
    Minister for Home Affairs Brendan O’Connor
    Minister for Sport Mark Arbib
    Minister for Small Business, Independent Contractors and the Service Economy Craig Emerson
    Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation Bill Shorten
    Minister for Mental Health and Ageing Mark Butler
    Minister for Employment Participation and Childcare
    Minister for the Status of Women
    Kate Ellis
    Special Minister of State Gary Gray
    Minister for Veterans’ Affairs
    Minister for Defence Science and Personnel Warren Snowdon
    Minister for Defence Materiel Jason Clare

  37. [victoria
    Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 9:19 pm | Permalink
    JacktheInsider
    @JacktheInsider
    @awelder Gossip is Roxon may soon have more time on her hands. @acaderama @farrm51

    JacktheInsider
    @JacktheInsider
    @sprocket___The goss indicates a demotion or the backbench. @awelder @acaderama @farrm51]
    I don’t believe it, for a minute

    Will push a pea up Sussex Street in the nude by my nose if this is true.

  38. victoria @ 1582

    Unless it is Roxon who wants to have less responsibilities?

    That is the only thing that would make sense to me. I think Nicola is a great performer.

  39. [I am unable to fiddle with my foxtel as son watching a program. Later i will see if mine jumps channels as well.]

    Vic, from what the lady on the phone was saying, I don’t think it’s something that’s affected everyone, but check it out in case – you’ll need to call them so they can send out a signal to your box to reset certain things

  40. Cant be Roxon, surely?

    I think O’Connor should get the shift. The other side of the Department, Robert McClelland, has been a pretty good AG although he was sight unseen when the Government were trying to sell the amendments to the Migration Act.

  42. Roxon would be a natural for Attorney General – but McClelland could not handle the complexity of Health. Maybe she’s burnt out? Health is very complex following 2010 Rudd Health Reforms, and it could be a good test for a future leader to tackle.

    If JG really has the future of the party at heart, she would start grooming the next generation of leaders by giving them new challenges to broaden their perspective.

    In no particular order, I’d suggest Shorten, Bowen, Smith and Combet.

  45. kezza2 @ 1583

    good to see you’ve dropped the my say put-downs

    I have only ever reacted when she has been really silly about something. (My opinion of course)
    I have always been prepared to comment agreeing with her when I did agree and have occasionally done so.

  46. [kezza2

    Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    ruawake
    Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
    I tried to watch all of Insiders, insessant giggling by a megacephalous journo made me give up.

    She wasn’t that bad.
    In fact, she was the only one who said, wtte, that if the boot had been on the other foot regarding Hogwarts, there would have been frothing at the mouth headlines.

    Got lost in the translation, I suppose.]
    \Back from watching Great Renovations and then phone calls, I agree with you re Crabb abd Hogwarts comment, my only question beef, is why didn’t any of them report it during the week?

  49. kezza2 @ 1583

    Another thing I should add. Since I have become aware of her AR problems I am more sympathetic as I would be with any bludger having difficulties.

  50. Boerwar
    [So when the Greens do a conscience vote it is noble and courageous but when Labor does it is ignoble and they are squibbing it.]
    What the Greens do is not the issue.

    A conscience vote on a human rights issue, a conscience vote on ending discrimination against members of the community solely on the basis of their sexuality, is squibbing it.

    As John Faulkner so eloquently encapsulated at the ALP National Conference:
    [….. there could be no equivocation about a human rights matter: “A conscience vote on human rights is unconscionable,” said Senator John Faulkner.”]

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 32 of 36
1 … 31 32 33 … 36