No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the latest exchange in the hundred years war between NSW Liberal Right faction rivals David Clarke and Alex Hawke. The Clarke faction (the “hard” Right) has unsuccessfully sought a Supreme Court injunction to prevent the Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill Young Liberal branches from participating in the preselection for Hawke’s federal seat of Mitchell. These were the very same branches involved in a famous episode before the previous election when the unanticipated arrival of 40 Clarke supporters prompted Hawke to call the police. The Herald report further relates that “up to a dozen” NSW MPs have defected from Clarke to Hawke’s “centre right”, among them Wollondilly MP Jail Rowell and upper house MP Matthew Mason-Cox, as they were “understood to be unhappy over their treatment by Mr Clarke and his colleague, Marie Ficarra”. This is presumably one of the reasons the Clarke candidate in Mitchell, Robert Picone, is not considered much of a chance.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on a widening in the long-simmering battle over Victorian Liberal Senate preselection. Previously the issue had been whether the number two candidate from 2007, Helen Kroger, would suffer demotion at the expense of the number three, Scott Ryan, who has since been promoted to a more senior parliamentary position. However, a split in the Costello-Kroger faction is now jeopardising the position of the number one candidate, Mitch Fifield. A Liberal source is quoted accusing Fifield of “engineering” Ryan’s push against his factional colleague Kroger, prompting the latter’s supporters to contemplate securing her position by moving to depose Fifield from the top of the ticket. With the Liberals thought likely to win three seats in the current electoral environment, Fifield’s enemies are said to be canvassing possible challenges from John Roskam and, perhaps a little fancifully, Peter Reith.
• A belated note, after much back and forth, about last week’s highly unfortunate Crikey system failures. I am delighted to be able to announce that it’s Ray Hadley’s fault. A story published by Crikey last Tuesday led to a mammoth spray against Tim Flannery and Crikey on Ray Hadley’s program on 2GB the following morning. As a result of Hadley’s outburst, Crikey received a massive spike in traffic to the website – so much so that the site’s servers could not handle the traffic increase and melted down two days in a row. Of course, these have not been Crikey’s only outages, and the broader difficulty remains of the system’s incapacity to cope under pressure. Management are now undertaking server cost analysis and preparing for IT/bandwidth increases.
lizzie
I agrree
i meant as puff has said, some way to say
hey i have suffered a devastating loss and am still dealing with that – not the evryday shit we all deal with
🙁
lizzie,
Wearing black is a bit OTT though in this day and age.
[In the end George ,Yes it is actually about what is best for me and mine.
as it is for everybody else.]
Joe, it certainly isn’t always about what you or I can “get” out of our government and our country. Sometimes it’s about inclusion, about governing for minorities on issues that may not seem pressing to the majority, sometimes it’s about bringing those less fortunate up a notch while others more fortunate accept our turn might not come for some time, and often it is about implementing policies that you and I might not see an immediate benefit, but our children will.
[In the end George ,Yes it is actually about what is best for me and mine.
as it is for everybody else.]
So vote Labor.
GG
@1448
see
@1440
[Sometimes it’s about inclusion, about governing for minorities on issues that may not seem pressing to the majority, sometimes it’s about bringing those less fortunate up a notch while others more fortunate accept our turn might not come for some time, and often it is about implementing policies that you and I might not see an immediate benefit, but our children will.]
very well said
[I like the idea of having something that tells people I am in mourning without having to tell them.]
Yes.
Puff
Depends on the culture, doesn’t it.
Just finished reading A man’s man re Abbott. I never knew he was most likely behind the character assassination of Cheryl Kernot.
[1452
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
lizzie,
Wearing black is a bit OTT though in this day and age.
]
little old Greek and Italian ladies don’t think so.
And some do so for the rest of their days.
If anyone is interested Insiders is just starting on ABC News 24
CO
ta
Frank
That’s what I mean by different cultures.
Scringler
I agree about not having tell people. I could hold up as long as I didn’t have to say the words.
[Kate Lundy
@KateLundy
In my humble opinion, #ALPnc 2011 was the most open, well run & inspiring Nat Conf I’ve been to: characterised by genuine respectful debate.]
What Eric Says:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-04/ripper-defends-anti-uranium-stance/3711688?section=wa
[Joe6pack
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:46 pm | Permalink
right o now,
someone here now tell me how the alp conference has made my or my families life/outlook any better?
Same sex marriage a conscience vote who cares?
I guess in the end not much damage done but not a win either]
It’s all about you, isn’t it?
Let’s all have a discussion about trucker joe and his family.
Guess what, joe – there are other peeps in Australia.
And they’re not doing it as tough as you.
And they need to be catered for.
Like the disabled.
Hey, no one in your family is disabled, so who cares about them?
Not you. But you’ll be the first to scream blue murder if they’re not catered for.
Like gay peeps
Hey, no one in your family is gay, so who cares about them?
Not you. But you’ll be the first to scream blue murder if they’re not catered for.
Like child care centres
Hey, no one in your family is needs child care, so who cares about them?
Not you. But you’ll be the first to scream blue murder if they’re not catered for.
Like getting kids skilled
Hey, no one in your family is needs skilled-based education, so who cares about them?
Not you. But you’ll be the first to scream blue murder if they’re not catered for.
Like our balance of trade isn’t up to expectations
Hey, no one in your family has investments, so who cares about them?
Not you. But you’ll be the first to scream blue murder if they’re not catered for.
Jeezus, do you care at all about anybody – or just your bloody self.
I’ve had it with whingers like you. You do nothing, you bleat incessantly – and all you want is more.
Do you ever give anything back?
Do you?
Never hear one contribution to the community that you admit.
Ahh The Maiden Twits:
[
samanthamaidensamanthamaiden
There’s something deeply bizarre about idea gay marriage will “lose” ALP the next election. Their primary vote is stuck around 30 % FFS
9 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply
Retweeted by TonyBarry ]
I meant for me. I wish there was a ring or brooch I could wear that was recognised as such.
Joe6pack @ 1449
How far does the ‘mine’ extend? Immediate family? Extended family? Friends and Neighbours? Your community?
And how do you define ‘best? A dog eat dog society or a more caring society with better opportunity for all?
[If a widow grieves for more than a fortnight she might be diagnosed with ”major depressive disorder”. ]
If it persisted and caused problems it might technically become an Adjustment Disorder with Depressed Mood.
puff
maybe design a brooch/wristband
a black rose motif?
[If it persisted and caused problems it might technically become an Adjustment Disorder with Depressed Mood.]
mumbo jumbo
[gusface
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:11 pm | Permalink
If it persisted and caused problems it might technically become an Adjustment Disorder with Depressed Mood.
mumbo jumbo
]
More money for Dio’s holiday fund 🙂
kezza2
nice rant but i have never screamed blue murder about any issue.
Hyperbole over the top ranting like your post will noy change my opinion.
get over it.
Diogenes @ 1470
An Adjustment Disorder with Depressed Mood is differentiated from Major Depression by the fact it is attributable to a specific trigger event and resolves within a couple of months or sooner.
gus
[mumbo jumbo]
No it’s actually DSM-IV
Puff – that is a good idea. Perhaps a ring similar to the Irish engagement/wedding ring. Worn one way when engaged and turned around after marriage.
bemused
Yes, hence the relation to the death of a spouse example.
pufftmd
Something like a badge that means sorry its me, I am feeling sad. Its not you, my reaction is not normal because I am sad and grieving. Please do not think you hvae offended me becuase of my not normal response.
It could just be a 🙁 badge. Great idea to solve an important issue.
dio
har de har ha
but srsly
plz explain?
[nice rant but i have never screamed blue murder about any issue.
Hyperbole over the top ranting like your post will noy change my opinion.
get over it.]
Funny, I don’t remember reading any post of yours here where you cared about anything other than the cost of the carbon price to your business. Do tell Joe, what do you care about outside the immediate benefit to your business and your family?
[gusface
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:11 pm | Permalink
If it persisted and caused problems it might technically become an Adjustment Disorder with Depressed Mood.
mumbo jumbo]
It’d be f*ckn laughable if it wasn’t so tragic.
Puh-leeeeeeeeeeese
2 weeks? you have to be kidding!
Suckholes.
Diogenes @1478
Good Dr, we concur. Now what treatment would you recommend?
joe6pack
answer the question, instead of having another go
What do you do for your local community?
And I still say that the gay marriage issue has done labor more harm than good.
[It could just be a badge. Great idea to solve an important issue.]
true
but the ecky crowd use the old smilie faces badges
And I still say that the gay marriage issue has done labor more harm than good.
yes joh
george
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:17 pm | Permalink
nice rant but i have never screamed blue murder about any issue.
Hyperbole over the top ranting like your post will noy change my opinion.
get over it.
Funny, I don’t remember reading any post of yours here where you cared about anything other than the cost of the carbon price to your business. Do tell Joe, what do you care about outside the immediate benefit to your business and your family?george
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:17 pm | Permalink
nice rant but i have never screamed blue murder about any issue.
Hyperbole over the top ranting like your post will noy change my opinion.
get over it.
Funny, I don’t remember reading any post of yours here where you cared about anything other than the cost of the carbon price to your business. Do tell Joe, what do you care about outside the immediate benefit to your business and your family?
FA,George, i need to provide for people
[And I still say that the gay marriage issue has done labor more harm than good.]
More than two thirds of the electorate disagree with you, but don’t let facts get in the way of your posts, you’re doing so well without them
kezza
[2 weeks? you have to be kidding!
Suckholes.]
So if a partner dies and the spouse attempts suicide in the first two weeks, you’d say there is no problem.
You missed your calling as a grief counsellor.
bemused
It’s not really my area but psychotherapy is definitely the way to go. Medication is seldom used.
[kezza2
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:18 pm | Permalink
joe6pack
answer the question, instead of having another go
What do you do for your local community?]
prove where I have screamed blue murder?
[FA,George, i need to provide for people]
“provide” what exactly? We all provide for our families. Is there something more you need desperately that the government could help you achieve?
george
joh is just providing
u want monkeys,pay peanuts
Joe6pack
Can you respond to my 1469 please?
[So if a partner dies and the spouse attempts suicide in the first two weeks, you’d say there is no problem.
You missed your calling as a grief counsellor.]
dio
I think u have misread kezza
otherwise retract
[george
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 8:21 pm | Permalink
And I still say that the gay marriage issue has done labor more harm than good.
More than two thirds of the electorate disagree with you, but don’t let facts get in the way of your posts, you’re doing so well without them]
If that is your benchmark than according to the polls labor are rooted.
I hold no brief for the Telegraph, but there was indeed a Pansy Wong in NZ parliament until the start of this year, and it’s perfectly obvious that this was indeed an honest mistake.
[If that is your benchmark than according to the polls labor are rooted.]
this is meaningless.
william
U are so so predictable
🙁
Diogenes @ 1490
So with 2 unsuccessful suicide attempts in the previous 10 days, including one near fatal, you wouldn’t treat with a panadol and discharge to an appointment in 6 weeks time?