No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the latest exchange in the hundred years war between NSW Liberal Right faction rivals David Clarke and Alex Hawke. The Clarke faction (the “hard” Right) has unsuccessfully sought a Supreme Court injunction to prevent the Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill Young Liberal branches from participating in the preselection for Hawke’s federal seat of Mitchell. These were the very same branches involved in a famous episode before the previous election when the unanticipated arrival of 40 Clarke supporters prompted Hawke to call the police. The Herald report further relates that “up to a dozen” NSW MPs have defected from Clarke to Hawke’s “centre right”, among them Wollondilly MP Jail Rowell and upper house MP Matthew Mason-Cox, as they were “understood to be unhappy over their treatment by Mr Clarke and his colleague, Marie Ficarra”. This is presumably one of the reasons the Clarke candidate in Mitchell, Robert Picone, is not considered much of a chance.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on a widening in the long-simmering battle over Victorian Liberal Senate preselection. Previously the issue had been whether the number two candidate from 2007, Helen Kroger, would suffer demotion at the expense of the number three, Scott Ryan, who has since been promoted to a more senior parliamentary position. However, a split in the Costello-Kroger faction is now jeopardising the position of the number one candidate, Mitch Fifield. A Liberal source is quoted accusing Fifield of “engineering” Ryan’s push against his factional colleague Kroger, prompting the latter’s supporters to contemplate securing her position by moving to depose Fifield from the top of the ticket. With the Liberals thought likely to win three seats in the current electoral environment, Fifield’s enemies are said to be canvassing possible challenges from John Roskam and, perhaps a little fancifully, Peter Reith.
• A belated note, after much back and forth, about last week’s highly unfortunate Crikey system failures. I am delighted to be able to announce that it’s Ray Hadley’s fault. A story published by Crikey last Tuesday led to a mammoth spray against Tim Flannery and Crikey on Ray Hadley’s program on 2GB the following morning. As a result of Hadley’s outburst, Crikey received a massive spike in traffic to the website – so much so that the site’s servers could not handle the traffic increase and melted down two days in a row. Of course, these have not been Crikey’s only outages, and the broader difficulty remains of the system’s incapacity to cope under pressure. Management are now undertaking server cost analysis and preparing for IT/bandwidth increases.
my say @ 1390
I am with you on that.
Except for patriotic reasons I do support Australia’s national teams the Wallabies and our cricketers.
bemused and Puff
One of the weird (to me) effects of shock and grief is the physical pain in the region of the heart. The old “broken heart” is very real. Love to you both.
I wonder how much reality some of these theorists have experienced…
Gus,
Bull***t, in spades.
I’d like to know what kind of “mistake” leads to typing out PANSY over PENNY?
lizzie
so so true
btw
what gets me is peeps grieving for someone they never personally knew
and i mean long term grief
lizzie,
Somewhere I read of a study which looked at the possibility of the heart having memory. I think it was something to do with heart transplant patients.
Puff @ 1400
Profit rules … and sometimes the medics can be conned into going along withBig Pharma.
[There is an argument that Big Pharma want to medicalise everything.]
There really is no arument, it is an established fact. Hey I now have an officially declared rare and neglected disease. Which means drug companies can use 1950’s drugs.
Frank @ 1399
I’ll let that one pass but I am glad you are here as a 110% ALP supporter.
What I and a lot of others are waiting to hear is do you now support Same Sex Marriage 110%? 😀
[I’d like to know what kind of “mistake” leads to typing out PANSY over PENNY?]
Sub-contracting the sub editing to AAP, who use NZ staff to sub edit Australian newspapers?
Puff
Yes, I read that, too. Gets interesting, doesn’t it.
gusface
I believe that sometimes a lesser grief (say, of a pet) triggers a strong reaction because of a grief that was controlled/hidden at the time.
rua
Both your last posts very insightful 🙂
[Which means drug companies can use 1950′s drugs.]
What drugs are they?
[bemused
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:31 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 1399
I’ll let that one pass but I am glad you are here as a 110% ALP supporter.
What I and a lot of others are waiting to hear is do you now support Same Sex Marriage 110%? ]
How about I and most other voters do not care 1 iota about this issue,
Come on Frank, let’s have your answer:
Joe6pack @ 1414
Frank is a special case. He supports every ALP policy 110%.
George,
The copyeditor is a Kiwi and there is a Pansy Wong who is a pollie in NZ.
[bemused
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
Come on Frank, let’s have your answer:
What I and a lot of others are waiting to hear is do you now support Same Sex Marriage 110%?
]
See Joe6pack.
Next.
lizzie
perhaps
pets are different tho,really family as such
[I’m far more concerned about her salary: $250,000]
What! more than a pollie for the rubbish she writes and the drivel tweets during QT. We, the taxpayers, are being robbed blind.
The copyeditor is a Kiwi and there is a Pansy Wong who is a pollie in NZ.
thats a piss poor excuse really
[bemused
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
Joe6pack @ 1414
Frank is a special case. He supports every ALP policy 110%.
]
baiting – how borement.
Next
Frank @ 1418
I never thought I would say this to you but Frank, you squibbed it.
gus,
It’s one of those excuses you couldn’t make up. So it has to be true.
OK, Frank if that is baiting I will cut it out.
[bemused
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:40 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 1418
I never thought I would say this to you but Frank, you squibbed it.
]
I don’t feed bridge dwellers and Ruddistas.
Nezt
[What drugs are they?]
Thalidomide, Bendamustine, Chlorambucil. Modern drugs r us. 🙁
gusface
Just an example, but there are probably other better ones. I still grieve for a couple of very special dogs.
OTOH I could not understand the crazy grieving over Princess Di, which I think fits your thesis.
gg
no supporter of the gay bo world
but there was intent in that headline
I’m inclined to accept DT’s explanation for the Pansy Wong howler…..never heard of a lesbian being referred to as a ‘pansy’ before….
[thats a piss poor excuse really]
It is no excuse at all. Or are all cock up by subbies to be accepted as ‘mistakes’? Imagine the headline scope.
btw
frank
last night was quite good with #ohmike
to his credit he takes calls
Unlike the cowards hadley and gloria
[Later the subeditor responsible added in his own tweet “Sorry conspiracy theorists but the Pansy Wong headline was an honest mistake.”]
Bullshit.
gus,
Time for you to don your home knitted tinfoil hat!
I reckon it’s a cock up.
Funny that the “2 strikes” rule on executive remuneration do not apply to the ABC 😀
[17pc pay rise for ABC boss
13 October 2011 | David Crowe
PRINT: 13 October 2011 | PAGE 3 | ABC rewards chief
ABC managing director Mark Scott has been given a hefty pay rise that takes his remuneration to about $750,000 but still leaves him trailing his counterparts at the commercial TV networks.]
http://afr.com/tags;jsessionid=04C08570FEDFC1D2117CAF950857B628?tag=P_John%20Porter
right o now,
someone here now tell me how the alp conference has made my or my families life/outlook any better?
Same sex marriage a conscience vote who cares?
I guess in the end not much damage done but not a win either
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Pansy Abbott too scare to give his MPs a conscience vote on #SSM #auspol
1 minute ago
😛
lizzie
the idea of a year in black and prayers every birthday after someone V close dies is a good idea
it allows “time out” and then further allows an annual outpouring of grief
[ruawake
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:42 pm | Permalink
What drugs are they?
Thalidomide, Bendamustine, Chlorambucil. Modern drugs r us.]
I assume you are not taking thalidomide
Don’t know the others.
But
My grandmother was prescribed a high blood pressure medication in the late 50s – along with about 30 others Aus-wide – and ended up having a lobotomy and consigned to the loony bin – Laurundel in Vic.
Prior to that she was a teacher.
I wouldn’t take a 50s drug if you paid me.
Jsp
Ummm
well try the National disabilty insurance scheme
the medicare of our times
5 stars
ps do you need more or are u subtley having a whinge?
[gusface
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:48 pm | Permalink
lizzie
the idea of a year in black and prayers every birthday after someone V close dies is a good idea
it allows “time out” and then further allows an annual outpouring of grief
]
Italian Catholics usually hold a memorial mass 1 moth after a person dies and on the firat anniversary – Some hav a mass every year. And some widows wear black permanently.
[someone here now tell me how the alp conference has made my or my families life/outlook any better?]
Yeah, it’s all about “you” Joe, isn’t it?
[I assume you are not taking thalidomide]
It has been renamed thalomid, it has been morphed into revlamid and lenalidomide, oh don’t you worry about that, it is still a drug looking for a disease.
frank
judaism/islam hold sorta sim
basicaaly a yr of mourning and then annual prayers- for any family member
Joe,
Uranium sales to India means more jobs and revenue for Australia and will be particularly helpful to SA to put their economy on a more solid footing. (Less of a basket case). Will also be good for trade with India on other things.
The policy on off shore processing of AS will be a cheaper and better solution when eventually implemented.
Committment to the surplus will be good for Australia’s credit rating (cheaper interest rates).
So good outcomes short term and long term for all Australians.
I like the idea of having something that tells people I am in mourning without having to tell them. Then when I was weeping as I placed the poppy on the memorial on 11/11/11 or I when I was crying in a supermarket, people would have known what was the matter with me.
gusface
Please no blacks. The only way to survive is to pretend you’re normal!
joe,
Forgot NDIS probably the most important outcome of all.
[george
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 7:53 pm | Permalink
someone here now tell me how the alp conference has made my or my families life/outlook any better?
Yeah, it’s all about “you” Joe, isn’t it?]
In the end George ,Yes it is actually about what is best for me and mine.
as it is for everybody else.
Men didn’t get to wear mourning? The poor buggars just had to suck it up and get on with it I suppose.