No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the latest exchange in the hundred years war between NSW Liberal Right faction rivals David Clarke and Alex Hawke. The Clarke faction (the “hard” Right) has unsuccessfully sought a Supreme Court injunction to prevent the Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill Young Liberal branches from participating in the preselection for Hawke’s federal seat of Mitchell. These were the very same branches involved in a famous episode before the previous election when the unanticipated arrival of 40 Clarke supporters prompted Hawke to call the police. The Herald report further relates that “up to a dozen” NSW MPs have defected from Clarke to Hawke’s “centre right”, among them Wollondilly MP Jail Rowell and upper house MP Matthew Mason-Cox, as they were “understood to be unhappy over their treatment by Mr Clarke and his colleague, Marie Ficarra”. This is presumably one of the reasons the Clarke candidate in Mitchell, Robert Picone, is not considered much of a chance.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on a widening in the long-simmering battle over Victorian Liberal Senate preselection. Previously the issue had been whether the number two candidate from 2007, Helen Kroger, would suffer demotion at the expense of the number three, Scott Ryan, who has since been promoted to a more senior parliamentary position. However, a split in the Costello-Kroger faction is now jeopardising the position of the number one candidate, Mitch Fifield. A Liberal source is quoted accusing Fifield of “engineering” Ryan’s push against his factional colleague Kroger, prompting the latter’s supporters to contemplate securing her position by moving to depose Fifield from the top of the ticket. With the Liberals thought likely to win three seats in the current electoral environment, Fifield’s enemies are said to be canvassing possible challenges from John Roskam and, perhaps a little fancifully, Peter Reith.
• A belated note, after much back and forth, about last week’s highly unfortunate Crikey system failures. I am delighted to be able to announce that it’s Ray Hadley’s fault. A story published by Crikey last Tuesday led to a mammoth spray against Tim Flannery and Crikey on Ray Hadley’s program on 2GB the following morning. As a result of Hadley’s outburst, Crikey received a massive spike in traffic to the website – so much so that the site’s servers could not handle the traffic increase and melted down two days in a row. Of course, these have not been Crikey’s only outages, and the broader difficulty remains of the system’s incapacity to cope under pressure. Management are now undertaking server cost analysis and preparing for IT/bandwidth increases.
BH,
My lips are sealed.
[BH,
My lips are sealed.]
Puff, there’s an over-the-counter for that
mybtw – it was mentioned on Sky that Kev’s speech ran longer than most and that he touched on a lot of subjects not related to the FA issue. He was quite funny in calling Abbott Captain Negativity altho I’m not sure why Abbott was included in a speech on FA. He’s a bigger dunderhead on FA than his Deputy leader.
A spoil sport, eh Puff! you’re forgiven tho.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 6:03 pm | Permalink
We will have to ask Dio whether corrective surgery rates for ankles have gone up because women are wearing these ridiculous things on their feet.]
Speaking of ankles, this is a part of my Christmas wish list this year (written earlier today while musing over other things):
[Julia Gillard:
Loses 2 stone in weight for health reasons (those ankles are shockers for HBP, liver or kidney problems)
Desperately gets help with her “set speeches/addresses delivery” (far too slow) and gets a better speech writer (Marr’s assessment that she “doesn’t appear to know what is in people’s heads” is just as ridiculous) because she needs to sell the positive.
Also, ditch the “friends” intro (everyone knows it is a euphemism for “comrades” – or just revert to “comrades”) – obviously can’t use men and women of australia. What about plain old hi everyone.]
Will Dennis and Michelle say the PM passed any of their tests tomorrow?
Actually, PB is interesting.
What is considered outside the group norms, most of the time, is not the arguments of the commenters, but the failure to back them up with references or data, unless the observation is clearly claimed as a personal opinion. But the group is flexible, and tolerant most of the time, all overseen by a semi-benevolent ruler who is often swayed by his heart as much as his head. The impression of a progressive ark in a conservative sea comes to mind. Parroting of conservative slogans without substance is totally taboo and likely to initiate a ‘walking the plank’ ceremony.
Puff, that’s a great description of PB – William should use it as his introductory “about us” on the site.
Another of the Christmas Wish List (CWL):
DTT to drop the “hate” meme – overdone mate.
The Daily Telegraph
updates its name to
The Daily Phone Call from Rupert
or the Daily ADSL2+ or maybe The Daily Optic Fibre
[Will Dennis and Michelle say the PM passed any of their tests tomorrow?]
No. They will simply pose new tests.
And with all that
ta da da da da da
Welcome back This Little Black Duck
The filtered one hasn’t been mentioned for a while!
BH @1353,
It would not surprise me if the MSM started on about Minister Rudd appealing to the masses in his quest for a return to the leadership.
Anything to take the focus away from the success of conference.
Thanks very much Doyley 🙁
Blasted Karen Middleton doing her plump best to keep stirring the pot over Kev.
[i notice Crabby’s head is actually too big for her body]
Funny… that occurred to me too today for the first time.
I’d been trying to work out what it was that disturbed me about her appearance, and today I sussed it: head too big for body.
Actually, she has an incredibly small chest, with thick arms, a large head and Shirley Temple hair. No wonder she has trouble getting out of bed.
BH,
[ main interest in Deviancy.
Puff – I hope you’re not seeing any on PB 🙂 ]
There’s no shortage of “deviancy” here on PB! 😉
[BH @1353,
It would not surprise me if the MSM started on about Minister Rudd appealing to the masses in his quest for a return to the leadership.
Anything to take the focus away from the success of conference.]
Maybe they’ll bring back the ‘Mr Popular’ crap, but who knows…
BH at 1173
Sheldon was on Hadley’s program last Monday week (sorry I was on the road to Wagga and could not get anything else on the AM radio) re Qantas.
Hadley, in true pretend messiah style, offered to book a room for Sheldon and Joyce to meet and sort out differences.
l @ 1364
[Blasted Karen Middleton doing her plump best to keep stirring the pot over Kev.]
It’s Mr Rudd! who stirs the pot. Ms Middleton is merely doing her job.
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 6:48 pm | Permalink
i notice Crabby’s head is actually too big for her body
Funny… that occurred to me too today for the first time.
I’d been trying to work out what it was that disturbed me about her appearance, and today I sussed it: head too big for body.
Actually, she has an incredibly small chest, with thick arms, a large head and Shirley Temple hair. No wonder she has trouble getting out of bed.]
Ah, but that is what is found the most attractive in infants.
The head is much larger in proportion with their bodies.
And exactly why parents fall in love with their kids.
BB
I’m far more concerned about her salary: $250,000
A quarter of a million bucks to be lured to the ABC!?
Boerwar
One attempt to boost “The war” was expected, but she came back on to make up stuff. There was no substance in anything she said regarding the conference.
Bore Ware @ 1369
*YAWN*
Still at it I see. 🙁
Well we all know who the pot stirrer is on PB.
I tried to watch all of Insiders, insessant giggling by a megacephalous journo made me give up.
[A quarter of a million bucks to be lured to the ABC!?]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-abc-of-seduction-how-mr-darcy-depends-on-damsels-20100124-msij.html
onya albo
at least u and tanya tried
[I’m far more concerned about her salary: $250,000]
I know brilliant people in science who are doing amazing things on less than half that salary. Just criminal.
ru,
Is it impolite or un PC to call her a boof head?
Puff
This may well interest you, in the light of your future career 🙂
In radical changes to the way mental health conditions are diagnosed, what was once considered a child’s temper tantrum could be labelled ”disruptive mood dysregulation disorder”. If a widow grieves for more than a fortnight she might be diagnosed with ”major depressive disorder”.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/psychiatry-bible-turns-sorrow-into-sickness-20111203-1ocmm.html#ixzz1fYEIxVBM
[Is it impolite or un PC to call her a boof head?]
definitely
boofheads dont need to be tarred with the same brush as crabbs
[ru,
Is it impolite or un PC to call her a boof head?]
Nah she is a shocker, I have said so for years. If she wants to do stand up join the Comedy Club.
lizzie @ 1379
I can’t comment on the first of those examples, but doesn’t a “major depressive disorder” require more than a normal grief reaction?
I have had both experiences and there is a world of difference.
@Puff/1323,
I have exact same problem, on the spot stuff i have trouble, but gimme an assignment I can do.
“Sheldon was on Hadley’s program last Monday week (sorry I was on the road to Wagga and could not get anything else on the AM radio) re Qantas.
Hadley, in true pretend messiah style, offered to book a room for Sheldon and Joyce to meet and sort out differences.”
1) I don’t know where you were coming from to get to Wagga but I’m sure there was another way. Failing that, you should have turned the radio off. Or cut your ears off.
2) Was he going to arrange champagne, flowers and a couple of pillows with chocolates on them, Homer Simpson style, as well? With Mr Joyce, the possibilities are endless…
[I know brilliant people in science who are doing amazing things on less than half that salary. Just criminal.]
tragic, isn’t it?
Especially when the leaders of our country have just been given a hefty pay rise (in the eyes of the public) and only JG’s amount to less than double her salary.
And, as you say, let’s bleed for our scientists.
Except, for one thing, if they’re all so bloody busy and doing what they love 24-7, when do they get the time to spend their salaries?
Just askin’
I think the pm is a very humble person with humility..some people are just like that,
What was all the laughing about re rudd on the news.
[ruawake
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
I tried to watch all of Insiders, insessant giggling by a megacephalous journo made me give up.]
She wasn’t that bad.
In fact, she was the only one who said, wtte, that if the boot had been on the other foot regarding Hogwarts, there would have been frothing at the mouth headlines.
Got lost in the translation, I suppose.
bemused
That was a direct quote from the article. I’m sorry I forgot the brackets.
I’m not at all happy with the way that normal emotions may now require professional interference.
From my own experience, and my reading, it takes two years to “get back to normal” after the loss of someone close. But only people who are already psychologically vulnerable need major intervention, AFAIK.
We are all being encouraged to be precious petals now. It’s not a good trend.
[It would not surprise me if the MSM started on about Minister Rudd appealing to the masses in his quest for a return to the leadership.]
doyley – lizzie has already posted that Middleton was on that theme and finished her report with the PM taking a short break but in the New Year the leadership stuff will be on the boil again. Urgghh!!
Such lazy journalism and all said with such sneering authority.
Sports people are paid far to much
That’s one of the reasons I am not relay a sports fan
Except junior sport, athletic junior hockey, soccer, and junior tennis.
Amazing people, these Daily Telegraph sub-editors…
[A news website has been forced onto the back foot after running a headline referring to Senator Penny Wong as “Pansy Wong” in a story about gay marriage…
Later the subeditor responsible added in his own tweet “Sorry conspiracy theorists but the Pansy Wong headline was an honest mistake.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/website-makes-pansy-wong-error-20111204-1od7s.html#ixzz1fYI3uFbA
[In fact, she was the only one who said, wtte, that if the boot had been on the other foot regarding Hogwarts, there would have been frothing at the mouth headlines.]
Watch the segment again, Crabb is pissin’ herself giggling, Cassidy gives her the Mesma stare as she shuts up. She should stay in bed and in four year wake up with a million bucks.
[Later the subeditor responsible added in his own tweet “Sorry conspiracy theorists but the Pansy Wong headline was an honest mistake.”]
BULLSHIT
Marr and Farr Kettle were pathetic on Insiders today.
And let’s not forget their big heads in relation to their bodies.
BH @1389,
Thanks for the update.
Sad but predictible.
[She should stay in bed and in four year wake up with a million bucks.]
A classic case of being influenced by a respected poster
lizzie @ 1388
I have experienced normal bereavement and got over it fairly quickly even when, on one occasion, I also lost my job between the death of my father and his funeral.
On the other hand, I still suffer from PTSD as a result of a particularly traumatic bereavement 17 years ago and was virtually incapacitated for months.
2 weeks of grief? After 2 weeks the shock hasn’t even worn off.
[1373
bemused
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
Bore Ware @ 1369
It’s Mr Rudd! who stirs the pot. Ms Middleton is merely doing her job.
*YAWN*
Still at it I see.
Well we all know who the pot stirrer is on PB.
]
The fact you side with Ruddistas like daretoread and MTBW and Scorpio is ample evidence where your true leanings are.
Boerwar is 110% correct re Rudd’s manouveres – he’s doing unfinished business
lizzie,
There is an argument that Big Pharma want to medicalise everything.