No Morgan poll this week. There is the following however:
• ReachTel continues to pump out the Queensland state automated phone polls. Perhaps emboldened by a recent effort pointing to a 27 per cent anti-Labor swing in Stretton, they have this week targeted two safe Labor seats and elicited similarly dramatic results. A survey of 384 respondents in the seat of Ipswich is fully as bad for Labor as the Stretton poll, showing a 26 per cent swing and a win for LNP candidate Ian Berry over Labor incumbent Rachel Nolan by a margin of 9.4 per cent. In the Brisbane seat of Bundamba, a poll of 371 respondents found a 20 per cent swing which would all but eradicate Labor member Jo-Ann Miller’s margin. Katter’s Australian Party was on double figures in both seats. Last week ReachTel published a poll of 366 respondents in Ferny Grove which showed a 15 per cent swing, easily enough to account for Labor member Geoff Wilson’s margin of 4.3 per cent. It should be noted however that ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings mentioned are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports polling by the Victorian Liberal Party shows it poised to win not only the Labor-held marginals of Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe, but also recording primary votes of 50 per cent and 48 per cent in relatively safe Bruce and Chisholm. Particularly difficult to believe is a funding from Bruce that “Julia Gillard had a minus 22 per cent favourability rating with Mr Abbott at plus 2 per cent”, which compares with Nielsen’s recent Victorian results of minus 13 and minus 25. Ferguson’s report further says that former members Phil Barresi (voted out in 2007 and again unsuccessful in 2010) and Jason Wood (voted out in 2010) are considering comebacks in Deakin and La Trobe. Local councillor Tim Smith is another possible starter in Deakin, and Ernst & Young partner John Nguyen “would be backed by many local members” in Chisholm. John Roskam of the Institute of Public Affairs and lawyer John Pesutto are mentioned as being likely preselection aspirants, though it is unclear in relation to which seats.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports “lobbyist and former 2007 Liberal candidate for the seat of Brisbane Ted O’Brien and Sunshine Coast businesswoman Peta Simpson” will join Mal Brough in the LNP preselection contest for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, with Brough “expected to easily win”. In the period between his appearance at a local function with Kevin Rudd and his defection from the party, the LNP state executive was considering having Slipper deposed at a snap December 19 preselection, which would have prevented the state election campaign clashing with any move by him to pursue internal appeals processes. However, this failed to take into account that many of Brough’s local branch “recruits” (according to The Australian, “since returning to the party in December last year, Brough has doubled the membership in the Fisher LNP branch to more than 1000”) would have been unable to participate due to the rule requiring 12 months’ membership. According to The Australian, it was “suspected that Slipper may have orchestrated the Rudd visit to entrap the LNP into calling an early preselection to defeat Brough”. Following Slipper’s defection, it is now clear the preselection will now be held after the state election.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the latest exchange in the hundred years war between NSW Liberal Right faction rivals David Clarke and Alex Hawke. The Clarke faction (the “hard” Right) has unsuccessfully sought a Supreme Court injunction to prevent the Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill Young Liberal branches from participating in the preselection for Hawke’s federal seat of Mitchell. These were the very same branches involved in a famous episode before the previous election when the unanticipated arrival of 40 Clarke supporters prompted Hawke to call the police. The Herald report further relates that “up to a dozen” NSW MPs have defected from Clarke to Hawke’s “centre right”, among them Wollondilly MP Jail Rowell and upper house MP Matthew Mason-Cox, as they were “understood to be unhappy over their treatment by Mr Clarke and his colleague, Marie Ficarra”. This is presumably one of the reasons the Clarke candidate in Mitchell, Robert Picone, is not considered much of a chance.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on a widening in the long-simmering battle over Victorian Liberal Senate preselection. Previously the issue had been whether the number two candidate from 2007, Helen Kroger, would suffer demotion at the expense of the number three, Scott Ryan, who has since been promoted to a more senior parliamentary position. However, a split in the Costello-Kroger faction is now jeopardising the position of the number one candidate, Mitch Fifield. A Liberal source is quoted accusing Fifield of “engineering” Ryan’s push against his factional colleague Kroger, prompting the latter’s supporters to contemplate securing her position by moving to depose Fifield from the top of the ticket. With the Liberals thought likely to win three seats in the current electoral environment, Fifield’s enemies are said to be canvassing possible challenges from John Roskam and, perhaps a little fancifully, Peter Reith.
• A belated note, after much back and forth, about last week’s highly unfortunate Crikey system failures. I am delighted to be able to announce that it’s Ray Hadley’s fault. A story published by Crikey last Tuesday led to a mammoth spray against Tim Flannery and Crikey on Ray Hadley’s program on 2GB the following morning. As a result of Hadley’s outburst, Crikey received a massive spike in traffic to the website – so much so that the site’s servers could not handle the traffic increase and melted down two days in a row. Of course, these have not been Crikey’s only outages, and the broader difficulty remains of the system’s incapacity to cope under pressure. Management are now undertaking server cost analysis and preparing for IT/bandwidth increases.
[As I see it, the matter has to be resolved by those two individuals.]
Bemused, as you well know there is nothing to be resolved because Gillard did not “do” anything to Rudd. His removal had little to do with her. Period.
[One hundred ships are stuck in the Danube because of low water.]
Abbott should get onto this immediately – a real “stop the boats” policy
BH
[JG did the wrong thing by omitting him from her speech]
I thought it wrong also and his two mentions of the PM in his speech this afternoon were gracious in my opinion.
[Not too late to get back on track and it should be done.]
Totally agree!
Zoid,
I am taking it easy, part-time to begin with, one maybe two subjects. Usually it is four, but I cannot see me coping with that.
It is hard because I am changing streams, and the way they do reports and assignments is completely different to that which I am used to. I am trying to memorise the different parts of the brain and what they are associated with, as I know that is going to come up in an exam. I wish they would use the conservative brain, I would have less to memorise. 👿
Zoid,
Conservative brain: stem, lizard, empty shell.
@rummel – The question on the report would be, was it the release of it, or the burning of it that caused the rain?
Puff, good luck with the studies. My daughter’s friend finished up doing her masters, now working privately(ie on her own ) I think and really enjoying it. Did work for a while in the public sydetem but very constraining
zoidlord,
[No Gillard would then be seen as sucking upto Rudd. ]
That reminds me of the time Rastus was waiting on the edge of the platform for a train.
Friend said, “Rastus, be careful there cause if a train comes along it will suck you r-i-g-h-t off”!
Rastus; “Come on train, come on train”! 😉
zoidlord @ 1290
Not at all.
George 1302,
So is Abbott going to do the parting of the oceans Old Testament bit, except it will be a horizontal channel, instead of vertical.
george @ 1301
True up to a point.
But it is not the widespread public perception and that is what counts.
But even more importantly, they must show they are part of a team and in particular work well together.
mari,
Thanks, that is where I want to be, but doing some research along the way. BTW I got your last email 🙂 , but have not finished the reply.
@Puff,
I think you have the same problem I do 😛
And my exact thinking was the same as you’rs, so it looks like I will change to part-time when I get a chance lol.
@bemused,
why do you think not?
Puffy, Abbott is getting he’s wardrobe ready first before attempting the parting of the seas. He’s not sure whether to go with a mid-cut skirt (a la Moses) or a long robe to the feet (a la Jesus H) for the event. After all, image is everything with the Abbott.
zoidlord @ 1313
I suppose I am assuming it would be done in a mature, sincere and convincing manner.
[george
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
One hundred ships are stuck in the Danube because of low water.
Abbott should get onto this immediately – a real “stop the boats” policy]
TIFH
george
As long as he has the sandals, it is all about the sandals.
George,
I reckon short skirt with a hint of budgie.
Finding the balance between wanting to complete the course and to live a life is a find line.
There is a temptation to enroll in subjects then finding that some subjects take longer than others and sometimes the subject that on paper looks straight forward is the one that turns into a long winded time consuming monster
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 5:44 pm | Permalink
No problem, with the workload you will have soon, doubt if you “will have time scratch ” yourself
Puffy, I hear he’s going with a high-heel number
http://www.misshighheel.com/sandals-lip106.html
[George,
I reckon short skirt with a hint of budgie.]
*No, I will not start up Photoshop, No I will not start up Photoshop, No…*
mexicanbeemer,
The problem is that i can’t just lodge stuff in the brain to drag out for exams anymore. it takes longer to memorise stuff, plus most of the studies I did before were assessed on assignments and presentations.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 5:48 pm | Permalink
george
As long as he has the sandals, it is all about the sandals.]
nah, he might meet the pharoh. Abbott needs this to part the waters
george,
You need to take into account Tone’s need to be the centre of attention.
http://www.sensualfitters.com/product_info.php?cPath=21_174&products_id=15907&osCsid=286813a4dc121123d0225d2c4e0a7ad6
Puff I know, I once did a subject where I passed all the assignments with high scores yet when I did the exam I flopped.
george
This is the real footwear.
http://www.stevemadden.com/Item.aspx?id=52387&np=127_282-403_503
url purely coincidental. 😉
kezza2 @1324, that photo now makes a lot of sense!
@kezza – The suit is not only IED proof but aids and listening proof as well.
feeney
I meant to reply to your comments a bit earlier and just wanted to say that your comments on the situation in Qld are always interesting.
Saw a lot of the Conference myself and really enjoyed it.
kezza,
I thought that was him going into the Lib national conference.
[I just went to the title Opposition costing and clicked on that. ]
mari – I just let it roll from the first one and had it open in a window while I was doing something else. A PBer earlier said they mentioned the Lib costings but when it didn’t come up I wondered what had happened and went back and realised it had skipped to the next issue – strange. They did make mincemeat of the Lib costings issue tho.
But we forgot Dolly,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9w_L5fxKPc
[nah, he might meet the pharoh. Abbott needs this to part the waters
Ah gotta love that image. Partly because it reminds me of this:
Good luck, Puff – our DIL is doing her Honors in Psych next year. Has done the degree while working over past 3 years.
george
I was expecting you to ask: “What is TIFH?”
I could have said TIFF!
Ctar1 –
[The suit is not only IED proof but aids and listening proof as well]
Added bonus: we can’t hear him at all. Yay
We will have to ask Dio whether corrective surgery rates for ankles have gone up because women are wearing these ridiculous things on their feet.
[I was expecting you to ask: “What is TIFH?”]
I know that means and the F is norty!
[I thought it wrong also and his two mentions of the PM in his speech this afternoon were gracious in my opinion. ]
mybtw – there we do disagree. They were to make a point. Nothing gracious about it, it was Kev being Kev and nothing wrong with that as long as we know where he’s coming from.
BH,
thanks. Psych certainly is different. My major in my undergrad was in sociolgy, with my main interest in Deviancy.
george
glad you knew what TIFH means
*psst* what is IIRC?
is it really correct?
in insanity rationale collapses?
????
or something completely mund-f-dane?
kez, “Illinois Interactive Report Card”? 😛
[*psst* what is IIRC?]
If I recall correcty.
Which, often, I do not. 🙂
BH
We will have to agree to disagree. None of us are perfect and we all have different interpretations of what we see. If he had not mentioned her at all he would have copped heaps as the PM did for not mentioning him. When he does it is called self serving.
Thank God I am not a politician.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, December 4, 2011 at 5:58 pm | Permalink
kezza,
I thought that was him going into the Lib national conference.]
You are going to make the best psychologist – none the least because of your excellent sense of humour and the absolutely best turn of phrase!
Your comments of a late evening liven up this forum.
just watched abbott address a ‘rally’ re pokies in brisbane – it looked like there were about 20 people there – there weren’t many shots of the ‘crowd’ at all – just two shots of abbott’s ugly head talking to himself! hilarious! and it went on for 5 minutes… amazing…
[main interest in Deviancy.]
Puff – I hope you’re not seeing any on PB 🙂
kezza,
The illusion of a cloak of darkness lifts my constraints. I forget that in the cold light of day, everyone can read it.
[just watched abbott address a ‘rally’ re pokies in brisbane – it looked like there were about 20 people there – there weren’t many shots of the ‘crowd’ at all – just two shots of abbott’s ugly head talking to himself! hilarious! and it went on for 5 minutes… amazing…]
It’s a shame we don’t have shows like the Glass House anymore. Abbott would have been turned into a caricature a long time ago.
george. george.
Start up Photoshop. Yes. Start up Photoshop. “Think not what the country can do for me,
rather …
… ridicule the little prick.” He deserves it.