Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll, covering last weekend’s regular face-to-face survey round from a sample of 864, shows Labor gaining two points since the previous poll (which combined results from the two weekends previous) on both two-party preferred measures, with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36.5 per cent, with the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,345 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. lizzie

    [That was around for a while just after the ‘coup’ and then died away]
    I must be inadvertently channelling everyone at the moment.
    Think I’ll do the dishes to come up with some fresh ideas.

  2. Kezza2,
    I know how hard it is to find the wherewithall for vet’s bills. I always front up and ask ‘how much’ and then ask if I might be able to pay by instalments if the bill is going to be too big for my pocket. Mostly they ask that I pay for the drugs/anaesthetic up front and then I can pay off the rest over a six week period. In the meantime, if you are able to get access to your pooch’s mouth without getting bitten, you can use a peroxide solution (half peroxide, half water) and using a soft toothbrush, paint it over the teeth. It will fizz up and aerate the gums, will help with the odor and reduce any infection present.

  3. [mfarnsworth Malcolm Farnsworth
    Did I say that? Kevin Rudd fumbles the party line. http://auspol.info/tDtt3s – Peter van Onselen on Rudd’s Agenda interview and party reform]

    Farnsworth must know he’s getting a reputation as being anti-Gillard.

  4. On a topic of national importance, what did the female bludgers think of JG’s hairstyle at the arias?
    I thought it suited her.

  5. Interesting to look at the list of Walkley Award winners to see who WASN’T on the list.

    No Grattan, no Oakes, no Kenny, no Sheridan, no Shannihan. Funny how the hacks think they are so influential and yet …

    On the plus side, a gong for Tingle. Again. A journo who puts in the hard yards. Who almost never relies on idle speculation in her pieces and when she does speculate, it’s because she’s done her homework … and she’s usually proven to be right. She is calm, reasoned and articulate. If you are after hysteria and hyperbole, she’s not your gal.

    So, on one had we have the Liberal shills and navel gazers who achieve nothing of substance, versus the balanced, reasoned and reasonable Laura Tingle who has won a swag of awards.

    You think the penny’d drop sometime soon, wouldn’t you?

  6. Goodness gracious ……………..not more Rudd/Gillard stuff again!

    The man was voted as leader of the Labor Party. Someone must have liked him

    He was popular with the masses. A lot of people liked him

    He was voted in as PM . A lot of Labor people must have liked him.

    He got rid of Howard. All Labor people loved him for this.

    He promised and delivered symbolic policies – eg The Apology. People liked him.

    He delivered economic assurance during the GFC. People liked him.

    He went to water over his “greatest issue confronting the nation” – the environment.

    People started to be disappointed with him.

    He went his own way – without the factions – the Labor old hands found this difficult to cope with. He disappointed the old guard

    He was testy and and a hard made to work with and for. Some near him did not like him.

    He took on the miners with the polls at 52-48 and the miners did not like him. They, in turn, threw buckets of money coated in crap at him.

    The electorate still liked him.

    Labor got nervous.

    A combination of poor politics and Rudd’s willingness to work outside conventional Labor wisdom lead to his own people not liking him. He was brutally axed.

    The people still liked him.

    The Labor party stopped liking him and voted for JG. They now like JG.

    The people still liked Kevin and were totally peed off that having made Rudd they were not given a say, at and election where he was leader, to decide whether he should stay or go. A cross that Labor will have to carry for a long time.

    Rudd’s humiliation was public and painful and people – especially Queenslanders – were particular peed off and they still like him.

    At the election is was a near run damn thing that Labor’s decision to axe Rudd did not cost them government and it is due to JG’s ability to sell ice to eskimos that Labor managed to form government and still be on its feet now.

    So what to all this?

    I think it is just called “politics”.

    A lot of people still like Rudd. A lot of people think JG is a wonderful PM.

    Trouble is a goodly number of people still might vote for Rudd over Gillard if the opportunity were given them

    Labor created the elephant in the room and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

    It is rich in my view, given the miserable treatment Rudd got from Labor, for some from Labor to tell him to be loyal, shut up and/or go away – or “despatch him to political oblivion”!

  7. [Scringler
    Posted Sunday, November 27, 2011 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

    … why the hell Nicki Savva is given any airtime given her inability to make an interesting or insightful comment.

    A damn good question, considering her pedigree. Is the present ABC management aware of the concept of conflict of interest?]

    I fear they are, and don’t care.

    Vide IPA reps popping up on just about any panel discussion group on TV, online (The Drum) and radio. I remember more than one bringing up that ‘nanny state’ line about the removal of brands on cigarettes.

    As a recipient of funding from Big Tobacco, that should automatically disqualify them from commenting on such a subject on the ABC.

  8. Tricot @ 2158

    Heretic!

    You will now be accused of starting a flame war. No matter that the gratuitous Rudd bashers have been at it all morning on their own.

    Sigh…

  9. So the Ruddstorationists still believe there will be a second coming of Kevin and the resestablishment of Ruddistan.So very “The Black Knight” of them.

  10. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Sunday, November 27, 2011 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

    Thanks, Victoria. It’s been a long road, and I will be really happy to have this contact go the full term, after having had 2 fall through.]

    So … Those rumors are true. You really do resemble Julia!

  11. poroti @ 2161

    So the Ruddstorationists still believe there will be a second coming of Kevin and the resestablishment of Ruddistan.So very “The Black Knight” of them.

    In the MSM?

  12. Kezza2, if you are around, is there a Veterinary Science faculty near you? I know there is one at Sydney Uni and also at Ipswich in Qld where you may be able to take your pet for consultations and treatment at a reduced cost.

  13. Morning all – I see that Kev has suggested that rank and file members could elect the Labor leader. I wonder if Kev has seen the polling which says that Labor members want Julia Gillard as leader. William might have some figures on that but I’m pretty sure that it was in some recent polling.

  14. Yep, BH.

    Most of the Ruddstoration is occurring on the Right side of the political spectrum. From memory, the further Left you go, the more popular Gillard is.

  15. So, we’ve had an article by Coorey, an article by PvO (retweeted by Farnsworth), and a tweet from Richo all highlighting what some of us have known for some time: that Rudd deliberately pops up when things start going the PM’s way.

    I’m sensing ‘boy who cried wolf’ with Rudd’s antics, and hope that with the msm pointing this out to the public, it will make it that much harder for Rudd to run interference on the govt.

  16. Just like the fairytale…

    Snow White and the Seven Dorks – based on a true story (see Abbott has been looking in the mirror all year and seeing a winner.)

    Characters: Queen Abbott – Tony Abbott; Snow White Pyne – Christopher Pyne

    Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the most inconsequential of all?

    You, my queen, you are the most inconsequential of all.

    (Enter Snow White Pyne, stage left.)

    Queen, you are full fair, ’tis true, but Snow White is fairer than you.

    (Queen Abbott punches the mirror and drops into the foetal position sobbing. Snow White Pyne tizzes her hair and swivels to face the shattered mirror. Blackout.)

  17. kezza2, yes I did and I wanted to thank you! As I do now and Janice and Victoria. It was the three of you on the same page and of a similar mind set which encouraged me to post the pome itself, rather than simply put in a link to the more detailed post at http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/.

    The Poll Bludger is a brilliant a site for comment generally, but discussion moves quickly and I am wondering if the verses per se contribute to that and are preferable to readers rather than a one line link. I’m hoping that relevance and timeliness work whichever way I do it.

  18. Good morning, PBers.

    +++

    Gorgeous Dunny @ 2159.

    Makes my blood boil. I’d like to know how the IPA gained such influence at the ABC. At least it could run a ticker saying “Right-wing Nutter Alert.”

  19. You do not have to be a Ruddite to imagine a second coming.

    If Julia can win, fair enough.

    But if the polls decline for Labor, and there’s a total wipeout in Queensland (as is very likely), Rudd might be the only option.

  20. janice2

    I’m having hysterics imagining my pooch with something frothing in her mouth.
    She’ll go insane – even if she did let me do anything more than a quick (and I mean lightning fast) sweep of her mouth with my least required finger!

    But, yep, thanks for the vet approach tips. I’ve never tried for time payments.

    MsAdventure
    Great idea. I live in regional Victoria, and Monash Uni (Gippsland campus) doesn’t offer Vet Science but does have a Bachelor of Science (Vet Bioscience) degree on offer (I just checked). Will give them a ring later. Thanks.

  21. [Goodness gracious ……………..not more Rudd/Gillard stuff again!]
    So let me produce a very long post on the subject, adding to this stuff.
    Sheesh.

  22. Thanks for the links this morning, Bludgers. I’ve enjoyed reading them and the cartoons are great. Fireworks must be going off because I’m actually agreeing with Richo on something.

    [sunriseon7 Sunrise
    Richo – “It’s like clockwork, Mel. Every time Gillard has a good week, out comes Rudd.” #auspol #sun7
    2 hours ago]

    David Speers ran with Kev igniting leadership rumblings again after yesterday’s love in with Paul Kelly and PVO. Many lovely smiles between Kelly and Kev. I must admit that Kev has a great smile.

  23. A vote of ALP members would return Gillard, easy. Take note of the ALP vote for ALP President. Of 3 positions, 2 left women, 1 right man. Of course a real Leader ballot would get a higher vote by all members (including the Right) as it really matters, unlike the more ceremonial Party President. But Ruddstoration is more a feature, IMHO, of non Labor voters, and some Labor voters who are not members, and as pointed out already, it’s really a trend the further right you go.

    Amongst the small subculture of ALP members, Rudd has some fans, but I always felt Rudd was a compromise candidate in 2006, one that we put up with because we needed to beat Howard and we were desperate. On 2007 election night, I was at Trades Hall in Carlton, Melbourne. A huge room with a big screen set up, lots of ALP people from all over the city (more from the inner city of course), various unions, faction, non aligned helpers etc. When Rudd appeared on the screen for a speech, I expected a big cheer, there’d been cheers for individual seats won and so on. Very, very muted, in fact a few almost jeered or made dismissive noises. When Maxine appeared on the screen later, the girl who kicked Johnny out of his seat, there was much bigger cheer. She had an instant appeal to the ALP membership.

    All through Rudd’s term, I rarely felt he was “one of us”, and I heard the odd mumbling from branch members, along the lines of “we’e not doing much” or “why is he so (socially) conservative”. I supported him, and hoped for a re-election, and I figured that a long term govt was the best hope for real reform.

    Anyway, mine is a Victorian perspective, I’m sure its different elsewhere. Nevertheless I believe Rudd (if it’s what he’s trying to do) cannot win an open ALP ballot for the leadership. He either is misguided there, or its all about legacy. I think the idea has some merit, but he would not be the beneficiary.

  24. kezza2 @ 2138, Yes, I did. Thank you, and thanks too to Victoria and Janice. It was the three of you on the same page and of a similar mind set which encouraged me to post those verses in full, rather than as a one line link in a general comment.

    I trust that timeliness and relevance on a fast moving and exciting site like this makes the posting of a ‘pome’ per se worthwhile rather than just a reference to http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/ where I spend a lot more time and space fulminating on the follies of our pollies! Sometimes a subject pops up, as it did with Kezza2 on the Victorian bushfires where I can pull something out of the archives and have it read again.

    I spent quite a bit of time in early 2010 defending KR from Abbott and the media, but I don’t think I’ll be recycling any of that now!

    Or maybe I should! That habit he has of eating his ear wax in public surely makes him unfit for public office! http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/2011/03/10/kevin-the-terrible-of-australia/

  25. [So, on one had we have the Liberal shills and navel gazers who achieve nothing of substance, versus the balanced, reasoned and reasonable Laura Tingle who has won a swag of awards.

    You think the penny’d drop sometime soon, wouldn’t you?]

    DannyL- good post.

  26. Leroy 2152
    [This is the article Laura Tingle got a Walkley for, from 3 Sep 2010]
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/liars_and_clunkheads_fail_budget_N34GyIaJiG6fPHVUnZ6iXI

    Isn’t Ms Tingle magnificent?
    That article is required reading – I missed it at the time, so thanks for the link. It really does expose the LNPs supposed economic credentials as totally fraudulent.

    I’ve always been a fan of Tingles. Apart from that article from last year, it was Laura Tingle who was the first of the msm journos to really apply the blowtorch to Abbott.

    And it was she who was so obviously fed up to the neck with the lack of scrutiny of Abbott that she had to almost shout it from the rooftops to get her colleagues to even look in his direction (even though Oakes and Kelly were given accolades for even having the slightest of goes at him a week or so later, before they quickly reverted to Labor-bashing type).

    Well done and well deserved Laura Tingle.

  27. BH @ 2180

    sunriseon7 Sunrise
    Richo – “It’s like clockwork, Mel. Every time Gillard has a good week, out comes Rudd.” #auspol #sun7
    2 hours ago

    Dammit! He has heart surgery, now his daughter is pregnant and he is going to become a grandfather, and he is FM and that is a fairly high profile role. Yep, a conspiracy for sure!

    Could it just be that Rudd is pretty much out there all the time because of his high profile role and, yes, he does not want to be overlooked if there is at any stage a leadership change? And then the Govt and PM have good and bad weeks while all this is going on so he is taking oxygen away in good weeks and undermining the PM in bad weeks (or so it is interpreted).

    Can we move on people? Plenty of other stuff to discuss.

  28. Leroy:

    Thanks for that insight. Telling indeed, as was this from Coorey today:

    [Rudd’s problem is consistency. As both opposition leader and prime minister, he did more to gut the party of meaningful input and participation than any other Labor leader.

    On the weekend he called for this national conference to be “a genuine public contest of ideas”. Yet, the only national conference held while he was prime minister, in 2009, was the most sterile in the party’s history.

    By Rudd’s order, not a single vote was allowed on the floor. He opened the conference on a Friday, disappeared and returned two days later to close it. In the interim, apart from a feisty backroom debate on gay marriage, well away from the public eye, there was not a single meaningful debate. Delegates left horrified at the sterility of it all.]

    How to win friends and influence people. NOT!

  29. Leroy @ 2181

    Thanks for your interesting perspective. I am also a Victorian and was out in the suburbs. I think anyone who led Labor to victory that day in 2007 would have been cheered as Rudd most certainly was our here.

    I have no idea of the relative standing of potential leadership contenders among ALP members, but if there were any change, it would not be introduced immediately so is rather academic in any current leadership considerations.

  30. [We are reaching the end of the post-WWII era of economic and social development. This period has been of great importance in getting us to where we are now. However the systems used during those years are now outgrowing their usefulness and we need to transform our society and economy based on the reality of things like the GFC, climate change, an ageing population, education requirements, peak oil and energy efficiency. This necessitates the kind of bold initiatives that the government is taking – and many more will be needed.]

    http://www.buddeblog.com.au/frompaulsdesk/australia-shows-international-leadership-in-global-changes/

    budde is a good read

  31. bemused
    [Could it just be that Rudd is pretty much out there all the time because of his high profile role and, yes, he does not want to be overlooked if there is at any stage a leadership change?]
    Yep, it could be.
    I’ll keep an eye on it from now on.

    You know, I just hope there are no bleeding national/international tragedies over the summer break so that they all can have a damn good rest; and that includes the Noalition as well.

    Surely LimitedNews journos have a holiday too, ffs.

    It must be exhausting to have to respond to the demands of the 24-hour news cycle. Slip-ups are inevitable in that climate.

  32. [Can we move on people? Plenty of other stuff to discuss.]
    But before I do that let me discuss it and argue my case on the subject –
    [Dammit! He has heart surgery, now his daughter is pregnant and he is going to become a grandfather, and he is FM and that is a fairly high profile role. Yep, a conspiracy for sure!]

  33. Barnyard on ABC Breakfast this morning was reminiscent of the ‘I challenge you’ sketch

    He had three questions for the government which morphed into multiple parts and when he’d lost me completely ABC looped the vision and the nightmare started all over again

  34. fess
    [firstdogonmoon Mr Onthemoon
    Stay classy daily tele moderators… http://yfrog.com/odpmmlj

    Appalling!]
    Pathetic, base.

    Rudd should sue!

    But then again it would just draw attention to it, and the shockjocks would have a field day drip-feeding that disgusting meme to their gullible audience.

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