Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll, covering last weekend’s regular face-to-face survey round from a sample of 864, shows Labor gaining two points since the previous poll (which combined results from the two weekends previous) on both two-party preferred measures, with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36.5 per cent, with the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,345 thoughts on “Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Earlier today we saw the excellent suggetion of Cinderella being a good moniker for Tony Abbott. Perhaps we could also use “Computer” ? As in the Little Britain catchphrase “Computer says no.”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOdjCb4LwQY

    Meanwhile what sort of things happen with universal 1 gig fiber ?

    The key ingredient in Chattanooga’s transformation is broadband. The city made famous by the song about the eponymous choo-choo last year became the first in the US to deploy fibre-based broadband at speeds up to 1 gigabit-per-second to its entire population, with an accompanying high-speed wireless service.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/gig-city-an-inspiration-for-regional-towns-20111124-1nw9s.html#ixzz1exXphQOT

  2. @rishane – He’s back to US Republican talking points. This one done recently in the US.

    Predicting first use of term ‘wet blanket’ very soon.

  3. So Grattan belately tells us that Slipper was pushed the night before he jumped. So is he still considered a rat??

    It’s not true!

    I’ve just crawled over the Briz & sunshine Coast papers, and found this dated 25th (Friday) http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2011/11/25/slipper-planned-ruin-state-push/

    The LNP executive met yesterday afternoon to consider a series of complaints against Mr Slipper after his decision to accept the Speaker’s position in the federal parliament.

    It was a case of closing the door after the horse had bolted …

    In a statement the LNP executive alleged it had received information that Mr Slipper had disclosed to a third party that “he was intending to resign from the Party during the forthcoming state election campaign to purposely create a serious distraction for his state colleagues”.

    “In recent months, the LNP has been inundated with complaints from local grassroots members of the LNP, who have expressed serious concerns about the behaviour and actions of Mr Slipper,” the state executive said in a statement.

    “It was the Party’s view that those matters be investigated in a thorough, deliberate manner which afforded Mr Slipper the right of natural justice and a fair hearing.

    There are quite a few letters from Thurs onwards, some from branch members & campaign managers, and NOT ONE says anything that would lend an air of truth to the claim Slipper was pushed the night before he jumped

    As is quite obvious from the link above, he jumped only a few hours before he was pushed.

    And as the relevant statement has been online since Friday, there is no excuse for the misinformation!

  6. The Finnigans

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    You are kidding. Abbott said only certain “right kind of kids” should be encouraged to stay at the sec school. Salt mine 4 the rest? #auspol
    now

    I am sure it was meant to say “Only children going to “the right kind of schools” should be encouraged to stay at secondary school.” Places like ummm ahh St Aloyisius for example.

  7. Any gov, sorry to dissapoint you, that tried selling OUR water would most likely lose every seat.-lol
    think it was suggested some years ago . Outrage is a calm word, the feeling and words that got.
    There are moves a foot to bring water from the west coast, to irrigate the southern midlands
    But the cost to farmers I am not sure of, its also the plan to double our dairy cows to atound 80 thousand, abc did a good story on this one friday night in our state line
    This will help the mainland modern self milking machines, but being from a dairy family I want to see the gate price improved for farmers, in fact farmers from all industries
    There was talk of becoming the food bowl sound good but some time down the track, the new water boards also seem to have the function of helping this happen, we. Shall see’

  9.  http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/keep-the-right-kids-in-school-tony-abbott-says/story-e6freuyi-1226207955739 

    “The other point I want to make is that it’s all very well keeping kids at school past Year 10 but they’ve got to be the right kids being kept at school past Year 10.”

    What a disgrace Abbott is! I’m continually astounded that the Coalition thinks this man is fit to lead their party, let alone the country.

    But then I look at the other contenders for his position and I understand why this is so.

  10. We are changing our system every one has to stay till year 12 but in year 10 they chose A technical school or teriary school, I would think with a lot of guidence from teachers,
    Abbott is certainly at odds with our new chancellor from the mainland, who says all children must stay r be highly encouraged to stay on, every child needs some sort of qualification, to go forward

    My god does abbott want more children on the street,
    The catholic system seems to be heading the same as the state system
    The professor also says schools who retain there 11/12 gave good outcomes, I believe this to be so as children in year 10 need mentors with in their peer group

  11. WikiLeaks was awarded a prize for most outstanding contribution to journalism at this year’s Walkley Awards.

    The Walkley board said WikiLeaks showed a courageous and controversial commitment to journalism, delivering an “avalanche of inconvenient truths”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/age-pair-win-walkley-for-rba-reporting-20111127-1o1gp.html#ixzz1exYc7c2K

    Response by Rudd to a parliamentary question on notice from Australian Greens senator Scott Ludlam, as reported in The Age:

    However, Mr Rudd avoided a direct answer to whether Mr Assange could be subject to a “temporary surrender” mechanism that could allow him to be extradited from Sweden to the US where the Department of Justice has been using a secret grand jury process to investigate alleged collusion between WikiLeaks and US Army serviceman Bradley Manning.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudd-handsoff-over-wikileaks-grand-jury-inquiry-20111127-1o1gq.html#ixzz1exZtDwde

    Greens media release containing text of all questions on notice about Assange and Rudd’s responses, 10 November 2011:
    http://greensmps.org.au/content/question/question-regarding-consular-and-legal-support-extended-julian-assange

    Audio of Senator Ludlam speaking to the media about the questions on notice he received back from Foreign Minister Rudd about Assange, 24 November 2011:
    http://greensmps.org.au/content/greencast/press-conference-november-24-2011

  12. my say

    This will help the mainland modern self milking machines, but being from a dairy family I want to see the gate price improved for farmers, in fact farmers from all industries

    Perhaps Australian dairy farmers should look to joining up with Fonterra (aka NZ Dairy Farmers Co-op) .Currently controlling 30% of world dairy exports and 100% owned by the farmers. No screwing of farm gate prices by Coles and Woolies for them.

  15. my say:

    WA introduced the same system several years ago now. Abbott’s comments just look as though he hadn’t even given any consideration to the govt’s proposals.

    When the debate turns to policy, Abbott starts flailing.

  17. Article in the Power Index about WikiLeaks Walkley Award:
    http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/and-the-winner-is/julian-assange-wins-walkley-bags-julia-gillard/20111127777

    The award helps vindicate Assange’s long-standing claim that WikiLeaks is a journalistic enterprise, not just an activist organisation. It’s a distinction that could prove crucial if he is ever charged under the US Espionage Act.

    In his pre-recorded acceptance speech Assange said: “It is time Julia Gillard stopped sucking up to power and started using the power she has for the benefit of the Australian people.

    “The Gillard government has shown its true colours in relation to how it’s handled US pressure on WikiLeaks. Australian journalists are corageous, the Australian population is supportive, but Julia Gillard is a cowardly prime minister.”

    Assange’s pre-recorded acceptance speech:
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1608279/WikiLeaks-Assange-awarded-at-Walkleys

  18. Whoa! Surely, he can’t get away with this.

    He will

    the whipped dogs of the press pack barely raise a whimper agin abboott

    gutless spineless brainless oxygen thiefs

  20. Confessions, I doubt he knows any thing about the cutting edge of education to fit this century abd beyond,

    The idea is to educate every one in the long run the country wins, more taxes coming in
    Less in welfare taxes going out.

    I though any liberal could think of that, but then again the denied us ordinary folk uni, and suspect
    would do so again, there whole attitude to life remind me of the times of the wrter Dickens,
    May be tony needs the ghoats of christmas to visit him.
    But I doubt he would get it

  22. Item from Inside Cover in today’s West Australian, which has prompted a frank exchange of views on Twitter.

    Liberal MP Joe Francis is on the warpath after being told to take down a picture of HMAS Sydney’s sailors he had put up in the MPs-only lounge.

    The former serving naval officer-turned reservist says he had the image blown up on a 1m by 1.3m canvas to mark the 70th anniversary of the sinking of the ship on November 19.

    However, about a week later Mr Francis says the manager of parliamentary services told him to take the picture down after a number of Labor MPs complained.

    “They think it’s morbid, depressing and disturbing and they don’t think it’s appropriate to have a photo of dead men up there,” Mr Francis fumed.

    “The walls of Parliament House are lined with photos of dead men.

    “It’s not like it was a photo of John Howard, it wasn’t a political picture.” The fired-up MP said while he was unsure who all the complainants were, he knew Labor’s Fran Logan was one after the pair exchanged words on the matter in Parliament’s corridors last week.

    “There’s a lot of people from the left who see Memorial Day, Remembrance Day, Anzac Day as a chore,” Mr Francis declared.

    “Whereas if I’ve got to make an Anzac Day address I will spend weeks writing it and put my heart and soul into it.”

    Mr Logan admitted asking for the print to be removed. He said its size “dominated the entire area” and there was a process through the House committee which Mr Francis had ignored.

    “He could have put the suggestion to them as to where the thing can be hung,” he said.

    “What he does instead is run to the media. He’s got this photograph of these poor, dead people and he’s exploiting the issue about the photograph for his own ego and his own political ends.”

    Mr Logan added that from his high-horse Mr Francis may like to explain why he had not attended the past three Remembrance Day ceremonies at the Hamilton Hill memorial.

    IC also contacted Opposition Leader Eric Ripper , who should know a thing or two about a mutiny, but he was steering clear of the ship fight.

  24. Pegasus@2317
    Thought Assange was great until I found out he selectively releases material?which makes him no better than those he supposedly exposes.

  25. “The other point I want to make is that it’s all very well keeping kids at school past Year 10 but they’ve got to be the right kids being kept at school past Year 10.”

    Betcha that resonates with the shockjock mob and their listeners. I can hear it now ‘get the little sods out working asap’.

  26. Can o e of u nice people send an email off to peter garrett
    In case he has not heard
    A both does not want to pay the new payment to parents that kicks in this jan, for 16 year olds
    Gee that would of been handy
    I remember qualifying for nothing bak then

  27. No and they would not think it through more kids u nemployed less pension for them
    bet that would change a few views I. Their minds
    Less taxes coming in, every thing is so black and white in their world,

  29. gusface,

    Yes, you are right. He will get away with it. There
    might be some mild comment buried in the depths
    of a verbose think piece that nobody reads.

    But this comment should be shouted from the
    rooftops. It reveals the Liberal attitude to education.

    Our kids deserve an education; yours don’t.

  30. http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/28/essential-delay-the-surplus-and-share-the-resources-boom/

    Monday, 28 November 2011
    Essential: delay the surplus and share the resources boom
    by Bernard Keane

    [Ahead of this week’s Mid Year Economic Forecast and an expected round of spending cuts, voters would prefer Wayne Swan to delay the return to surplus, according to today’s Essential Report.

    …………..

    On voting intention, little change from last week — the two parties remain on the same primary votes, 48% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor. But the Greens are up one point to 11%, enough to tip the 2PP outcome back to 54-46%.

  32. BH

    Betcha that resonates with the shockjock mob and their listeners. I can hear it now ‘get the little sods out working asap’.

    Oh yes with lots of Four Yorkshiremen stories of how “I left school at..” and sniffy comments about “book learning”.A dash of “National Service” tossed in along with the old hardy annual corporal punishment.The cures for all that is “wrong with young people today”. It will be great talkback fodder.

  33. Thought Assange was great until I found out he selectively releases material?which makes him no better than those he supposedly exposes.

    arunta – exactly. I switched off Assange after that, too. He’s pushing his own agenda and expects the Govt. to go into bat for him and calling the PM a coward didn’t endear me either.

    I call refusing to front up to dispute a claim of sexual allegation against you extremely cowardly. If he’s innocent he has no reason not to front voluntarily.

  34. http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/28/essential-delay-the-surplus-and-share-the-resources-boom/

    Monday, 28 November 2011
    Essential: delay the surplus and share the resources boom
    by Bernard Keane

    Ahead of this week’s Mid Year Economic Forecast and an expected round of spending cuts, voters would prefer Wayne Swan to delay the return to surplus, according to today’s Essential Report.

    …………..

    On voting intention, little change from last week — the two parties remain on the same primary votes, 48% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor. But the Greens are up one point to 11%, enough to tip the 2PP outcome back to 54-46%.

  35. Jeez – it just gets worse!

     http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/tony-abbott-says-only-the-right-kids-should-stay-at-school-after-year-10/story-fn59nlz9-1226207999721 

    And I guess I’d want to carefully study this and make sure that the right kids are getting the money …

    Does anyone know how old Abbott’s children are? – someone should ask them what they would think about being denied a basic education just because some fruitloop didn’t think they were good enough to justify spending a few dollars.

  36. Just sent this to Kevin Rudd;

    Dear Mr. Rudd,

    Once again the spectre of your return to the Prime Ministership is being raised in the msm. Once again they interpret your actions as destabilising the Prime Minister. That you are currently undertaking a covert campaign to undermine and deflect any fair and complimentary comment on the Prime Ministers decisions and actions. In fact it has been mooted that if Julia Gillard has a good week up ” pops” Kevin Rudd to take the oxygen out of the debate. Personally, I don’t believe this at all. In fact I think it”s a storm in one of the teacups you invariably enjoy on the deck with Therese……and here is why;

    While I believe you have every right to be bitter over past events, and many, many peole still are, and to seek retribution is a natural balancing of injustice. I just can’t see that a man who wrote the “Apology” would stoop to such measures. It remains, to this day, one of the finest examples of soaring rhetoric written from the depths of a courageous and free heart. Unencumbered by the petty, vindictive qnd quite tawdry constraints of ego. It is this freedom that encourages me when I watch you negiotiate, on behalf of the Australian people, with the world.

    It would hardly be fair if I didn’t give you my veiws on Ms Gillard.

    I find the Prime Minister to be without equal. The msm attacks on you when in office were deplorable. What Ms Gillard “cops” is much worse. Her voice, earlobes, backside, dress sense and even her capacity to give and accept love have been ruthlessly and viciously denigrated by those following an agenda. An agenda of blind hatred and, having generated enough of that, commercial profit. I think it is quite ironic that the forces of hatred that were supposed to destroy Julia Gillard have developed or perhaps unearthed depths of strength, courage and intelligence that will, in the end, defeat them.

    With the upcoming ALP conference I understand that a lot of debate will go towards, quite rightly, gay marriage, internal reforms etc. What I would like to see is the very real understanding that the Gillard Govt is the only entity with any sort of power standing between 22 million Australians and a neo-conservative philosophy. I’ll repeat that. …The Gillard Govt is the only entity with any sort of power standing between 22 million Australians and a neo-conservative philosophy.

    We can balance injustice or we can work together to prevent it happening in the first place

    Your call

    Kind Regards

    Ian

  37. poroti@2321

    Abbott’s new three word slogan

    “STOP THE EDUCATION”

    All education does is cause uncontrollable expectations inflation, which in turn places undue constraints on “easy-entry” end of the labour market. This will inevitably cause upward pressure on labour costs which will inevitably negatively impact the economy as a whole.

    Clearly the only sane choice it to centrally manage education access to better balance the inputs to the labour market.

    (I’m fairly sure that’s how they think)

  39. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    The farmers, irrigators & Barnyard are unhappy so are the Environmentalists. The balance of #MDBA report must be ok then #auspol
    3 minutes ago

  43. Abbott, of course appealing to his base of elitists who don’t want the riff raff going to the university campuses with their golden children and the ancient minded who remember, in the good old days, when you left school when you were 15, went down to the local factory and got a job and that was that.

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