Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll, covering last weekend’s regular face-to-face survey round from a sample of 864, shows Labor gaining two points since the previous poll (which combined results from the two weekends previous) on both two-party preferred measures, with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36.5 per cent, with the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,345 thoughts on “Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

  1. [with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. ]

    if so, why the heading of

    Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

    not

    Morgan face-to-face: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

  8. Another improving poll for Labor, not great but getting winneable. The trend since the passing of the carbon tax is now clear. Things will improve further once carbon tax and MRRT, and their benefits for average income earners, become apparent. I look forward to Poss’ next polytracker.

    On the negative side, another slide in markets today, and substantial, with Europe even grimmer. It really may be time to prepare for GFCII if needed. I hope someone is talking to Henry and Parkinson, and listening carefully to everything they say.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/house-prices-at-risk-from-europe-crisis-20111125-1nxsm.html
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/markets-live-plunge-cuts-70b-from-stocks-20111125-1nxpt.html
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/gfc-ii-on-its-way-norris-20111124-1nwx1.html

    The Germans are getting sick of picking up the cheque for more bailouts, and now even their borrowing rates are going up. If that continues then it is game over for the Euro, because no other country in Europe is capable of keeping it afloat.
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/24/the-apocalypse-trade/

  9. Andrew Probyn in the West today used too many words. The corrected version:

    [Mr Abbott’s modus operandi since last years election has been to wrest government by unhinging one of the crossbenchers from the clutches of Ms Gillard.]

  13. http://www.inmycommunity.com.au/news-and-views/local-news/We-are-unknowingly-being-converted-to-Islam-says-Simpkins/7608910/

    WA Liberal Party doing the nation proud

    [We are unknowingly being converted to Islam, says Simpkins
    25/Nov/2011
    By David Gear, Joondalup Weekender

    BY eating snags from the supermarket on the barbecue this summer, you are unknowingly being converted to Islam, according to Cowan MHR Luke Simpkins.

    In a speech to Federal Parliament yesterday, Mr Simpkins accused meat producers, including Harvey Beef, Inghams and Steggles of “deceiving” West Australians by not labelling their products as Halal food.

    “So when you go to Coles, Woolworths or IGA, or other supermarkets, you cannot then purchase the meat for your Aussie BBQ without the influence of this minority religion,” he said.

    “By having Australians unwittingly eating Halal food, then we are all one step down the path of conversion, and that is a step we should only make with full knowledge and not be imposed upon us unknowingly.”

    Harvey Beef was contacted by inmycommunity.com.au and declined to comment.]

    http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/federal/luke-simpkins

  16. Wasn’t 52-48 the point at which the pundits have said the knifing of the unloved Abbott would begin?

    Anyone smell blood yet?

  18. 51.5 – 48.5 has a nice ring to it at this stage of the game.
    Quite a contrast to Newspoll’s 57-43. Could that have been a rogue?

  19. I don’t know if this has been discussed before so apologies if it has.

    If the LNP has all this dirt on Slipper going back years would it not be easy for the government to simply keep on asking why the man was preselected time after time ?

    If he is such a bad person why has he been allowed by the LNP to stand for Parliament election after election with the last just over 12 months ago ?

    Or would this leave the government open to attack ?

  20. Darn

    i managed to watch part of The Nation earlier. Hawker, Richo and other Labor people on the panel agreed that things have improved for Labor, but a PV of 30% is an issue for them. Therefore it appears they trust Newspoll figures.

  22. [Quite a contrast to Newspoll’s 57-43. Could that have been a rogue?]
    I think when we see a polytracker type comparison it will certainly stand out.

  23. Doyley

    Also mentioned by the Panel on The Nation program, is that there could be a few dirt files being thrown around soon. by those comments, it would appear that Slipper is not alone.

  24. The Finnigans

    [We are unknowingly being converted to Islam, says Simpkins

    Insha’ Allah]
    So if we eat red herrings “then we are all one step down the path of conversion,” to dolphins ?

  25. Doyley,

    I’m sure Jack McCoy on Law and Order would go for a third Party reckless indifference to fraud charge. Just to make them squirm.

  26. On the Slipper affair, seems the indies enjoyed driving the knife into Abbott right up to the hilt. Preferred shoring up the Govt’s numbers to a possible loss of influence. Also suggests that the Govt has been treating them very well and they believe they can still be effective under the new set-up. Surely you couldn’t get a greater indictment of Tony Abbott.
    Interested to know what Wilkie’s attitude was to the change of speaker. Has it been reported?

  28. [http://www.inmycommunity.com.au/news-and-views/local-news/We-are-unknowingly-being-converted-to-Islam-says-Simpkins/7608910/

    WA Liberal Party doing the nation proud]

    Yup, thoughts of God and Sausage really go together.

    These guys must be the ultimate in tosspot’s. I mean Who TF actually cares about this crap.

  30. victoria @23,

    Thanks for that, It has been on my mind that this line of attack by Abbott may not be as easy and straight forward as some out there suggest.

    GG @25,

    Now that Jack is DA is he would rip right into them.

  31. [Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    I do like how the Liberals think that their turning a blind eye to anything Slipper may have done is now a problem for Gillard]

  33. So what is the context of Simkins’ statement. I assume, being and ABC person, he thinks this is a negative thing. As someone who lived in Arab countries for may years – I think Islam works better than many Christian varieties I have encountered. I have no religion myself.

  35. rosa

    [Interested to know what Wilkie’s attitude was to the change of speaker. Has it been reported?]
    I heard him on the radio this and despite Frans efforts to inject gloom and “bad Labor” at every turn he sounded very positive. The PM rang him not long after Harry let it be known that he was pulling the pin to assure Wilkie that the pokies legislation is still on.

  36. [Interested to know what Wilkie’s attitude was to the change of speaker. Has it been reported?]

    Saw a very quick grab from a doorstop by Wilkie. He acknowledges it reduces his leverage, but doesn’t seem fussed about his Pokies plans. Noticed that Mike Kelly was on the OO today saying that the ALP was committed to the pokies pre-commitment and i believe that Jenkins, as an MP is for it as well.

    Gillard has been out there saying that she is standing by the commitments made to the Indies as well. I dont think the Indies will have any problem with Slipper as Speaker, provided they are dealing with a Gillard govt as she has shown she can and will work constructively with them.

    Under a more autocratic ALP leader, they may have had as issue, but bottom line is that they can deal with the ALP, and know that Abbott would be out to crucify them if he could, as soon as he could.

    Nup, i reckon this whole Slipper as Speaker issue is an unmitigated disaster for the Lib/Nats No-alition, and its pretty obvious its Abbott political ineptitude that has caused it. Or his mate Peta’s??

  37. GG @34,

    Without jumping to assumptions it would not surprise me if Mr Windsor had a quiet word in Rob O’s ear to put him straight.

  38. [These guys must be the ultimate in tosspot’s. I mean Who TF actually cares about this crap.]

    Racists and religious bigots care. Plenty of them around. This might drive a few of them to vegetarianism… no, probably not.

  41. Leroy previous thread
    [ON THE OFFICE OF SPEAKER

    25/11/2011
    INDEPENDENT Member for Lyne Rob Oakeshott says he did not seek out the Speaker’s job yesterday following the resignation of Harry Jenkins.
    “At no time did I approach anyone about seeking the Speaker’s Chair,” Mr Oakeshott said.
    “I was, however, approached by the Deputy Leader of the Federal Opposition, Julie Bishop, and some cross-bench colleagues while in the House of Representatives where I spent most of the morning releasing five reports from two committees and voting on five private members’ matters. All of this is available on the parliament’s video footage.
    “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott rang my office shortly after noon to offer the Coalition’s support if I was nominated.
    “I thanked him for the offer but also, in the same phone call, politely rejected the offer.
    “Once again, I congratulate Mr Jenkins on his time as Speaker and welcome 2012 under the watch of new Speaker Peter Slipper,” Mr Oakeshott said.
    ENDS]
    So, has anyone from the media asked Hockey about his denials this morning of the above??

  42. If the Liberals have sat with the knowledge of Slipper’s dirt file yet re-endorsed him for all these years, it indicates either that the file contains very little dirt, or that they found his level of dirtiness perfectly acceptable while he was toeing their party line.

    As Labor had no dirt file, their reliance on Slipper being an honourable member of Parliament by reason of his endorsement as such by the Liberals, should give the Liberals no possible cause to complain.

  43. Libs proclaim their committment to an Independant Speaker. Why the angst?

    http://www.liberal.org.au/Latest-News/2010/09/07/Agreement-for-Better-Parliament.aspx

    Dated 07/09/10!

    That’s the agreed one that Abbott reneged on in the hope of being able to keep the government with a one vote majority in the hope he’d manage to get through a vote of No Confidence and be in The Lodge by November 2010 … Christmas 10 and so on & so forth. Until yesterday!

  44. Richo said on the Nation program, that Harry has been wanting to leave the speakership role for 6 months, and nearly resigned when he did not have the confidence of the house on one occasion. No doubt Harry would have seen all the trouble Slipper was encountering within his own party over the past few months, and saw it as an opportunity for the deputy speaker to take his place.

  45. [If Abbott wanted an indie to be speaker, why did he not ask Tony Crook?]

    Because Crook usually votes with the Coalition, I suppose; so it would be one less vote from Abbott.

  46. Thanks Victoria and Growler for info.

    Doyley – according to the Herald front page, Windsor actually explained to Oakeshott what was going on (that it was intended to elevate Slipper). That suggests Labor might not have talked to Oakeshott before pulling its stunt, which is a bit odd.

  47. OPT

    It was a rhetorical question. It is obvous that Abbott did not want to lose a vote, and Labor gain one. But he is such an honourable man. (sarcasm)

  48. No, forgive me. If Jenkins resigns and nobody in the Government will put themselves forward (but slipper will), that means, of course, that the Govt would not have needed the independents to get slipper elected.

  49. rosa

    Things were probably moving rather quickly yesterday morning. It certainly caught the press gallery and the coalition by surprise

  50. [That suggests Labor might not have talked to Oakeshott before pulling its stunt…]

    What is your definition of ‘stunt’ Roas?

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