Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll, covering last weekend’s regular face-to-face survey round from a sample of 864, shows Labor gaining two points since the previous poll (which combined results from the two weekends previous) on both two-party preferred measures, with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36.5 per cent, with the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,345 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. I just saw vision on Sky news of Pyne putting forward his nominations yesterday, and HJenkins laughing hysterically in his seat

  2. And, of course, if one of the indies did stand and get elected, labor would still have got a firm vote (Jenkins) as distinct from one it had to negotiate with (e.g. Oakeshott). Good thinking, Albo.

  3. rosa

    My reading of the situation is that HJenkins wanted to resign, and saw an opportunity for Slipper to take the position, considering the LNP were making moves to push out Slipper. It was a sensible course to take.

  8. I heard Abbott on the radio a little while ago saying any issues which may arise in relation to Slipper’s use of entitlements should be put directly to the PM as “he is her Speaker now”.

    Will people really buy that?!

  9. Don’t forget that most of the Indies want to protect their Independant status and would see becoming Speaker or a Minister as compromising this.

  10. confessions

    When were Slipper’s use of entitlements an issue, the day he became speaker, or for the 21 years he was an MP of the LNP?

  11. Laocoon

    Yes that’s what I thought, although he pretty much condemns himself the way he went about it. Still, it was another attempt to whip up those issues, if clumsy.

  13. Socrates @ 8
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/gfc-ii-on-its-way-norris-20111124-1nwx1.html

    and CBA is down 2.3% today – though I have been surprised how resilient AU equities have been in the face of both Europe and China

    There is a chart in the AFR today of the big 4 banks’ CDS rates, back up to c175bp, up from 150 at the time of the RBA cash rate cut and c130bp pre June. Speculation that next official cash rate cut may not be passed through entirely

  14. confessions

    So the Libs turning a blind eye for 21 years is okay, and now today the PM is responsible? This man has totally lost his marbles!

  15. The ALP do have ways to counter the attacks on Peter Slipper, as many have pointed out – if he was such a poor character, why was he the LNP member for so long etc etc.

    BUT

    I wouldn’t think it was a good idea to be directly standing up for Peter Slipper – the ALP doesn’t need or want to be seen as having him in their corner, and the less they say about him the sooner it drops off the media’s attention. I think they should just carry on getting things done and talk about Peter Slipper as little as possible.

  16. What’s behind this poll volatility? is there in fact any volatility?? For what its worth, my sense is we have settled around the 53/47 or 54/46 mark for the time being. That’s not a bad outcome for the Government heading into the summer recess, with a difficult 2011 behind it, and in the knowledge that its position on the floor of its House is considerably more stable after yesterday’s events, clearing the way for an even more effective working Parliamentary majority in 2012 and the first half of 2013.

    Abbott is bloodied from yesterday, no question, but we will have him around for a while yet, and I still think he will be leading the Libs at the next election.

    Mod Lib’s crowing this week sounds a bit nervously hollow to me. I am glad he feels that the Slipper deal removes his residual guilt from the events of 1975!!

  17. Leroy – yes, obviously a complete disgrace

    Interesting tension in Liberal party between the “l”iberals and the “hard right”, bit like Republican party in US

  18. Re Slipper; Mike Rann has plenty of time on his hands to offer advice to the PM on what to do with a “maverick” independent Speaker, who is an angel in comparison with the “much-missed” Peter Lewis! Speaker Lewis added much colour to SA Parliamentary proceedings and revelled in his capacity to inflict pain on his erstwhile colleagues! More of the same to come federally over the next 20 months, methinks.

  19. [Didn’t the bandying around of dirt files by the Qld LNP backfire for them recently?]

    Fess, Lib & Nat ‘dirt files” have been backfiring on one another (and now on the LNP) since Joh BP used them after Q Election83 to ‘convince’ Liberals Brian Austin (Wavell) and Don Lane (Merthyr) to defect to the Nationals, giving Joh a majority and leaving Liberals with the famous ‘telephone box’ of sitting Libs (6). After the Fitzgerald inquiry, Lane, an ex Special branch cop more than slightly bent (hence Joh ability to ‘convince’ him), & 3 other Joh Ministers were sentenced to 12 months jail for falsifying their expense accounts.

    Not that the ALP and TUs don’t have their own ‘dirt files’, though they and the Nats seem to manage (and use) them more quietly & effectively. Not the Libs, who seem to use them on one another during every factional brawl. ‘Dobbing in’ tmembers of the other faction to the public (often via the CM) seems to have been a Lib speciality.
    Some things never change!

    ome things never change

  20. William I can tell u it want confuse us,

    What u could do in the synopsis is to highlight it in BLACK and large letters under the way Morgan
    Send it.

  21. William I can tell u it want confuse us,

    What u could do in the synopsis is to highlight it in BLACK and large letters under the way Morgan
    Send it.

  22. The Herald Sun also had a strange conversion today. For 30 years Peter Slipper was clean as a whistle; today he’s vilified on the front page.

    I’m not sure why that would be the case.

  23. [my say

    Posted Friday, November 25, 2011 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    William I can tell u it want confuse us,

    What u could do in the synopsis is to highlight it in BLACK and large letters under the way Morgan
    Send it.
    ]

    William doesn’t want to listen.

    He is beholden to Crikey the Left Wing of Murdoch.

  24. [Marq James
    @marqoftheshire
    Chris Smith on 2GB claiming Slipper is now third in line to the PM. How funny is that? Libturds are so funny 🙂 #auspol #Noalition]

  28. http://www.smh.com.au/national/asylum-seekers-to-be–released-into-community-minister-20111125-1ny9u.html

    [Asylum seekers to be released into community: minister
    Kirsty Needham, Immigration Correspondent
    November 25, 2011 – 1:41PM

    Twenty seven asylum seekers who arrived by boat will be released into the community on bridging visas today for the first time, the Immigration Minister Chris Bowen said today.
    The federal government has also announced it would stop treating boat arrivals as a separate stream of asylum seekers – and all asylum seekers arriving by boat would have access to the Refugee Review Tribunal from next year. The tribunal is now only available to asylum seekers who arrived by plane.]

    Lots more in the article

  29. [He is beholden to Crikey the Left Wing of Murdoch.]

    Er, Frank, that comes across as really, truly silly. Excuse my impertinence.

  30. Good to see the Daily Telegraph maintaining its high quality standards:

    Yes, Socky, that was a disgrace. So bad I wondered whether they used it in the print version.

    Yep.

    There it was: full tabloid, front page… Peter Slipper as a Rat… ears, whiskers and long tail.

    In the interests of responsible journalism, the DT did insert a notice that the photograph had been “digitally enhanced”.

    Says a lot for what they believe to be the intelligence of their readers.

  33. [Scringler

    Posted Friday, November 25, 2011 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    He is beholden to Crikey the Left Wing of Murdoch.

    Er, Frank, that comes across as really, truly silly. Excuse my impertinence.
    ]

    Be Blind to the bleeding obvious.

  34. Quick Bob Watch
    Got some pain killer into Bob by mixing it with warm milk, sucking it up into a syringe, grabbing the back of his neck and blowing into his whiskers.

    Eventually he couldn’t stand it anymore, opened his mouth and took a nip at my nose (don’t worry, it’s a game we play).

    SQUIRRRRRRRT!

    Mission accomplished. Bob now asleep.

    ************

    Incidentally, judging by the reactions of the other people in the queue at the supermarket when I pointed out the DT front page, community disgust at the adulterated photo was unanimous.

  35. BB

    Good effort. Bob can have some peaceful recovery time now!

    I do hope the community at large, are getting sick of our tabloids!

  36. F

    [Wasn’t 52-48 the point at which the pundits have said the knifing of the unloved Abbott would begin?]

    I’ll believe 52/48 when the other polls fall into line and stay there for a while.

    Apart from anything else, at less than 900, the Morgan sample is smallish.

  38. Money has been coming for the ALP in the last few weeks; yesterday after the change of Speaker especially.

    You can still get 3.30 with Centrebet, if it’s of interest. Next best is 3.10 with Tom Waterhouse.

  39. Caught the last 10 minutes or so of “Friday Free For All” on 6PR Red Neck radio with Paul Murray Liberal party mouthpiece, Larry Graham sometime former “Independent Member” up in the North-West of WA and some female whose name I could not catch.

    Try as he might, Murray got just two calls – one of which suggested that a public servant become the Speaker!

    This group is, most times, a Liberal Party Love-in but they were flogging an absolute dead horse today.

    Claims from Graham were that there is “No democracy in Australia and look how the Liberals got 44% of the vote last time.” While, “We should be more like the people of Syria and demand democracy!” was another more dangerous bleat. A week or two ago, he claimed, “73% of Australians did not want Julia Gillard.” Right out of the Tea Party manifesto.

    I really wonder what parallel universe they live in.

    Eastern stater will be amazed at a claim by Murray – a former editor of the West Australian mind you, that the “Canberra Press Gallery got it wrong”. Not because they missed, totally, what was before their eyes, but because, according to Murray at a distance of 2500 kms away and because he had read it in the OO this morning – that getting rid of HJ was a “conspiracy” by Labor.

    Fortunately, the demographic for this station, at this time of the day, and with Sattler between 3 pm and 6 pm is part of what someone here described as Skinhead radio – the old and/or crazed and/or angry. Take your pick.

  41. Frank. Murdoch has a left wing! Shit, that’s news.

    But, seriously, what might be obvious to you escapes me. I’ve been around PB for many years and enjoy the contributions. You obviously have some form of bee in your bonnet.Or is it a wasp?

  42. THE DAILY TERROR is useful for lining a cat litter tray – about all it’s useful for(although they have a good crossword page, for those so inclined in that direction).

  43. Am I correct that Abbott or one of his lieutenants today publicly described Mr Slipper as being “corrupt”?
    I sense a defamation suit coming on.

  44. [91

    Scringler

    Posted Friday, November 25, 2011 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

    Frank. Murdoch has a left wing! Shit, that’s news.

    But, seriously, what might be obvious to you escapes me. I’ve been around PB for many years and enjoy the contributions. You obviously have some form of bee in your bonnet.Or is it a wasp?
    ]

    The Way Ruawake was humilated y Shows On and Bilvbos insensitive Comments re The Marrgaret River “Crystal Meth Lab” at a time of massive bushfires in the area.

    Oh and the constant downtimes.

  45. Hey The Finnigans, where you always a dolphin, or did you get unwittingly converted by eating a can of dolphin friendly tuna?

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