Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll, covering last weekend’s regular face-to-face survey round from a sample of 864, shows Labor gaining two points since the previous poll (which combined results from the two weekends previous) on both two-party preferred measures, with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36.5 per cent, with the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,345 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Andrew Elder being cutting as usual.

    [GrogsGamut Greg Jericho
    Good piece by @PhillipCoorey on Rudd’s push for reform of the ALP
    3 hours ago

    awelder Andrew Elder
    @GrogsGamut @PhillipCoorey The key there is Rudd’s “hundred flowers” comment. Mao’s words drew out free-thinkers in order to crush them
    3 hours ago

    GrogsGamut Greg Jericho
    @awelder that was Rudd’s Prime Ministership wasn’t it? 🙂
    3 hours ago]

    On Katherine Murphy’s article on Labor finding it’s inner bastard and taking off the hemp pants.

    [BernardKeane Bernard Keane
    cracking piece from @murpharoo go read it now
    3 hours ago

    awelder Andrew Elder
    @BernardKeane Substitute “hemp pants” for “straw man” @murpharoo
    3 hours ago ]

  2. [Anyone can have a budgie.]

    I had a budgie once. Years ago. Called Harry. It didn’t do much. Anyway, Harry was eaten by the cat. Nope, dogs are betterer.

    Thanks Bushfire Bill for the good read.

  3. CTar1

    I get the feeling that though he is tryng hard to understand rural concerns and environment he is new to it all and relying too much on the bureaucracy. I certainly didn’t agree with the constant reappointments of the committee – which have led to the whole thing being watered down. 😉

  4. Gusface @ 2234

    TB pointing out that a third of MDB crops are non foodstuffs

    eg cotton wine etc

    Gus, you had a lapse, but I fixed it for you. ☺☻

  5. Leroy and Kezza2, ditto from me re Laura Tingle! So cool. consistent and sane. As she says

    Parliament’s uncommitted independents have a lot to weigh up. But you’d hope $10.6 billion would weigh very heavily indeed.

    Now of course it’s $70 billion. Which probably helps the Independents feel an even stronger commitment to Wayne Swan and Julia Gillard.

    PS – sorry about the repeition of half my comment above. Is it helpful, or worth mentioning, that I had another freeze there mid comment, scrolling up to check a detail, and had to Escape and then re-start. I’m sure William and Crikey are doing their best to remedy all that. Even moving from page to page on the site seems very jerky and slow these days

  6. 😀 -big grin (colon, hyphen, D)

    😉 -wink (semicolon, hyphen, right bracket)

    🙂 -smile (colon, right bracket)

    😆 -cheesey grin (colon, lol, colon)

    😛 -tongue hanging out smile (colon, P)

    🙁 -sad face (colon, left bracket)

    😳 -embarassment (colon, oops, colon)

    8) – sunglasses – cool (8, right bracket)

    Somewhere I’ve got a bigger list….

  7. [The unions now only represent a small proportion of the workforce and not all unions are affiliated. And yet they have a 50% say in the party. Some rebalancing is in order.]

    bemused – thanks for your comment and I agree that the 50% issue does need to be looked at.

    I’d like to check the Facebook contributions but at the moment I just don’t have time to think about it. PB is my bit of relaxation when I need a ‘stress break’. Will have more time after Easter next year.

  8. my say @ 2250

    Water seems a big problem everywhere
    What makes me angry is we have a whole river of fresh water that is drink able,
    That is not salty, most of the way down till the river widens around the derwent valley.
    Yes a lot is used for power but more could be harnessed for drinking,
    The water boards the labor party have put in place will most likely lose them the election
    And dam water meters,

    I think most states would love to have your water problems.

    Kenneth Davidson (journalist writing in the Age) has pushed a proposal that rather than build the desalination plant, Victoria should buy water from Tasmania.

    Seems to have a lot going for it and may have helped Tasmania’s financial situation also.

  9. The new watered-down MDBA policy isn’t going down well in SA. Clearly all you need to do is toss problem people off the board who agree with the environmental scientists and you can get whetever result you want.

    [It could slash the take of water in SA’s stretch of the Murray by more than 25 per cent – despite pleas from the State Government for no cuts in recognition of the savings already made. Under the plan, 2750 gigalitres a year will be restored to the system to keep it flowing – more than a thousand gigalitres less than the 4000GL experts say is needed.


  10. @lizzie – The support given to the first report was pathetic. The politicians in power wanted to be popular with everyone which is not possible with this sort of reform. The people most likely to be alienated were those who wouldn’t vote for them anyway.

    If Burke fights his end even on this ‘watered down’ scheme I’ll revise my view of him.

  11. [Needless to say, the solution is not to give up educating people. But the point is, it is about skills, not acquiring pieces of paper. A skilled tradesman will make more money than an unskilled graduate.]

    I agree with your first and third sentences, Socrates, but not the second.

    Oz version of a seamless internationally-recognised educational ladder via both TAFE & UNI qualifications

    Can I please recommend you all read/ bookmark this table of criteria for each qualification from Year 11 to doctoral level. It’s an essential element of a now c20 year old Australian programme up-skilling, esp mature adults; including across the TAFE/ Uni divide. Amazingly, though these are part of the Hawke-Keating reforms implemented c1990, few adults (inc recent school leavers) know/ understand it. Yet the framework provides a seamless movement – by both the TAFE and University routes (also catering for study interrupted by family/ work/ other) – as far as a student has the ability & desire to go.

    A trade (successful end of apprenticeship) qualification = Certificate IV

    [A Certificate IV is generally accepted by universities to be the equivalent of six to twelve months of a Bachelor’s degree, and credit towards studies may be granted accordingly.]

    Australian Qualifications Framework

    This initiative coincided with the restructuring and expansion of Distance Education, soon to be enhanced by IT developments like the www, improved HTML coding, Skype-type face to face individual & networked communication and multi-media web authoring. These offered what face-to-face lectures and printed study guides could not – Global Classrooms without Walls and Learning-webs as Ivan Illych had envsaged in (1971) Deschooling Society

    Mining and housing booms come and go; Tradie wages & employment chances with them. Tradies (esp but not only male) grow older, settle down, have kids, don’t play as much sport … wish they’d gone beyond their trace to the profesional level – (or another field) some for money, some for self-fulfilment. Many chose trades because they received no/ little encouragement to achieve at school (which many hated); have low self-esteem (often from attitudes like ‘he’s no good at learning but he’d good with his hands’ & ‘education is wasted on girls’ – I’d be rich if I had a fiver for each time I heard those & similar)

    As long as society sees TAFE and university courses as separate, rather that primarily practical and primarily theoretical versions of what should be whole courses, with different 1st level exit ‘bits of paper’ but leading to the same end from different starting points, we’ll continue (all efforts to the contrary) to build classist ‘glass ceilings’ over those quite capable, and often desirous, as adults, of achieving well above it.

    “Classist’ it is. The main reasons students can’t see that, are low self-esteem and lack of guidance about how to get back on the educational staircase as non-matriculant adults. Yet it was Whitlam’s government which provided the first ladder, and Hawke-Keating’s (playing a major role in international trends) a well built stairway from ‘left school at 15, never much good at it, but good with my hands’, to as far as people wanted to climb.

    I retired c16 years ago & some things have changed – though not much, as recent reviews of 1995’s Karpin Report on training Managers for the Asia-pacific century (which I integrated in my courses) show. So there were (prob still are) a few critical elements to up-skilling mature adults across the TAFE/ UNI divide:

    * Train the Trainer courses (meaning that every workplace/ community trainer had to complete a training/ education course – offered by TAFE and, initially, a few unis)

    * Recognition of Prior learning (RPL) – see above.

    * Designing courses using Chris Argyris’s and Donald Schön’s research into how professionals learn and use their knowledge; Theory-in-action; Double-loop learning and organisational learning.

    (BTW) I don’t know if you’ve encountered it, Socrates; but I’d lay a decent bet on your enjoying it – esp research in ‘pidgeon-holing’, one of the reasons I changed jobs when I caught myself doing it (and thankfully recognised it when a medical specialist did it to me, and stubbornly clung to his diagnosis despite MRI and other results to the contrary).

    * Teachers who know the best-researched and most widely accepted theories underpinning the most effective ways of teaching/ training anyone, and improving self-esteem; esp, adult tradies, para-professionals and professionals, and design courses appropriately.

    There’s a really good, very readable summary of Argyris’s work (though it’s hard not to cross-credit his to Don Schön’s as they were frequently co-researchers & writers) chris argyris: theories of action, double-loop learning and organizational learning Their work – thoroughly researched, widely replicated and extended – is crucial to understanding the way theory, practice and learning interact in the best possible and most iterative ways. Sadly, it’s far more accepted by management, engineering, medicine and most other faculties and professions, than it has been in teaching.

  12. BB @ 2230

    Ditto the good read comment by Scringler

    But, just too depressing cost-wise.
    we’re already having a baubleless chrissy and what are presents again?
    Not sure what I’ll do

    Am waiting on a call back from the uni science dept.

    🙁 🙁 🙁

  13. Scringler – glad you know how I feel. Have probably done my dash with getting anything out of him but promises are promises. Or is that only when they are Labor promises!!

    I am laughing about poor Harry the budgie and that dogs are betterer. Bewdiful!

  14. Rod Hagen
    [Interesting link on the Ms Bishop mandatory asian language policy initiative.

    Asian language education was a Greens Party policy initiative for the 2010 federal election.

    Careful, or we’ll have Macklin & the other punitive neo-puritans of all parties wanting to cut social security benefits or tax breaks for anyone whose child would rather learn Spanish or Art or some such!]
    Big difference. The Greens Party policy advocates, amongst other things, increasing funding to previous levels and the importance of Asian languages in schools. It does not call for the mandatory teaching of Asian languages in schools.

    The Greens policy was in response to the findings of a government commissioned report by the Asia Education Foundation that showed a dramatic decline in Asian literacy in Australian schools – The Current State of Chinese, Indonesian, Japanese and Korean Language Education in Australian Schools: Four Languages, Four Stories.

  15. bemused@2277:

    Thanks, you are right.

    I have two tabs open, both with the same URL, one that works and one that doesn’t.

    I don’t know what is going on there.

  16. spur212:

    There was an Age article I posted this morning claiming Slipper was asked to resign from the LNP by Warren Entsch the night before Harry resigned as Speaker.

  17. BH.

    Ta. It was a running joke for years. “Your bloody cat ate my budgie …”

    She would say: “Yeah, but … it was a silly budgie …”

    We must laugh.

  18. Try this:

    go to 

    type smileys in the search box, then enter.

    then click the link at the top that says:

    Using Smilies « WordPress Codex
    The smiley images in WordPress are automatically given a CSS class of wp- smiley when they are displayed in a post. You can use …

    and it comes up for me.

    But copying and pasting the URL does not work!

    Dammittohell, now it does! 

  19. [We must laugh.]

    It makes the world go round, Scringler, and family jokes It’s why I love QI – I always end up laughing at those darn witty Brits.

  20. Damn. How long has it been since a major politician anywhere has argued against high school retention rates?

    [“The other point I want to make is that it’s all very well keeping kids at school past Year 10 but they’ve got to be the right kids being kept at school past Year 10.”

    He said keeping the “wrong kids” at school could turn schools into “glorified occupational therapy”.]

  21. Dio,
    You are right about Burke. I do not see any difference between the handling of the MDBA where the scientists are just chucked aside because their findings conflict with vested interests and the climate change deniers who do the same thing.

    I am listening to a press conference onabcnews24, with the weasal words, ‘this is not an exact science’, yada yada yada, which could have been lifted straight from the Heartland Institute.

  22. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    You are kidding. Abbott said only certain “right kind of kids” should be encouraged to stay at the sec school. Salt mine 4 the rest? #auspol
    now 😡 😡 😡

  23. [rishane:

    It’s astounding, isn’t it?]

    Tis. But I wonder how many people will even hear these remarks without them being appropriately spun?

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