Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll, covering last weekend’s regular face-to-face survey round from a sample of 864, shows Labor gaining two points since the previous poll (which combined results from the two weekends previous) on both two-party preferred measures, with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36.5 per cent, with the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,345 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  3. bemused, PBers, as I see it, have 2 choices if they don’t like what is being discussed.
    1) Leave the blog for awhile or forever.
    2) Scroll past those posts of little interest and respond to those posts of interest.
    No-one, other than William, can tell people what they should be discussing or not.

  6. [Should I write special editions for you so that you read them as they are intended to be read?]
    What you can do is stop trying to be a smart arse and stop trying to control everyone.

  7. Leroy – thanks for that input re Victoria. It’s interesting to get perspectives from other States.

    [bemused
    What are your views on ALP reform?]

    I’m all for it, bemused, and always have been. I’d like to listen to all the arguments and proposals but I do think the members should have more involvement. I don’t agree with Kev’s idea that all 400 delegates to conference should be chosen by the membership, but not sure what the answer is there.

    The Labor Party is of the Unions so I don’t want the Unions to be swept aside. I think it’s time to launch an assault on anyone who thinks they don’t have a role to play but I do think they should stay out of the leadership stuff once a leader is elected by his/her colleagues. I think the elected Party pollies have the right to choose the leader because they have to work with that person. It’s up to them to choose wisely tho.

    I don’t know whether you are aware but, in NSW, we recently voted for positions on the Policy Forum. Had to choose 16 from about 50 odd I think. It took time going through details on the applicants and asking other Branch members for input before I could work out who I wanted to vote for but I enjoyed the process.

    I don’t mind debate, fights, whatever so long as something comes out of the Conference that will work towards concrete changes for more involvement by members and supporters. Love the idea of associate members (for a small fee). People like my OH, who hates meetings but is a dedicated a supporter and a helper during campaigns, could be acknowledged this way.

    Watched Lachlan Harris on ABC this morning. I really like the way he speaks. He never bags the Party but makes very constructive comments and this morning he said wtte that a lot of change may not come out of this conference but the next conference will see those changes writ large.

  8. [sspencer_63 Stephen Spencer
    Always comforting to read Media Diary and be reassured that News Ltd remains perfect, while Fairfax and Crikey are in perpetual crisis.]

    No Walkley’s for the so-called ‘Heart of the Nation’. Bet they’ll get plenty of Wanklely’s though!

  10. Gary
    Add a third option.
    3) Respectfully advise others that a topic has been done to death and there is no use being on an endless loop.

  12. [3) Respectfully advise others that a topic has been done to death and there is no use being on an endless loop.]
    The other options still apply if they respectfully ignore your pleas.

  13. bemused:

    If you want a discussion about something else, then by all means start one. Sitting there whingeing because people aren’t talking about stuff you’re interested in is just childish self-indulgence.

  14. Gus:

    No access to TV today, for which I’m quite thankful. I suspect Abbott has discovered whole new levels of Unhinging since last week!

  15. [Gary @ 2206
    Point made – you lack a sense of humour.]
    Not at all. I just don’t see how telling me I’m unable to understand what you are posting as being funny.

  17. Garry @ 2215
    You commented on a couple of paragraphs in reverse order which did kind of distort things.

    I must of course confess to having done the same on occasions.

  19. sarahinthesen8 Sarah Hanson-Young
    Just arrived down at the Murray Mouth. The Basin plan released today will not deliver the water the river need and sets it up for failure

    my reply

    StGusface Gusface
    @ @sarahinthesen8 did the water goddess tell u that?

  20. From the letters page of this morning’s SMH:

    ‘Forget Mister Rabbit, or Doctor No, call him Cinderella: He lost his slipper!

    (Glenn Meeves of Kings Park)

    Boom Tish!

  21. [bemused
    Posted Monday, November 28, 2011 at 11:07 am | Permalink
    my say @ 2201
    What on earth are you on about?]
    STOP BELITTLING MY SAY

    Or are you unaware of how you come across?

  23. Tony Burke on Water Reform – does anybody out there think he’ll put in some hard yards rather than doing what’s expedient (he always seems unconvincing?).

  24. gusface

    These journos must not be allowed to disturb Tone’s reality by questioning him. After all, his mother never did, so he can’t cope with it.

  26. So was abbott t s pressed a mater of great state importance,

    I have access to tv but really, when I turn it on goes off just as quick
    When the abc returns to its charter I may return to them,
    And a set of new presenters in the new year would be refreshing

    Realy hope we find out who is the next head of board soon

    Love to make some predictions, or a wish list

  28. [vexnews vexnews
    Briggs goes to water over Barnaby in first outbreak of Coalition ‘summer of love’ #auspol bit.ly/sDX3g3
    6 minutes ago ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/murray-darling-crisis/bn-buyback-benefits-will-outweigh-costs-labor/story-e6frg6px-1226207791322

    [Coalition divisions emerge on Murray-Darling Basin water plan
    BY: BEN PACKHAM AND JAMES MASSOLA From: The Australian November 28, 2011 9:48AM
    Increase Text Size
    Decrease Text Size
    Print

    SOUTH Australian Liberal MP Jamie Briggs has contradicted Coalition water spokesman Barnaby Joyce on the ongoing use of water buybacks, as the Murray-Darling Basin plan is officially released today.

    Mr Briggs, whose electorate of Mayo takes in the Murray’s lower lakes, endorsed the basin plan’s stated aim of keeping the Murray mouth open for 89 per cent of the time.

    But Senator Joyce criticised the plan, saying it failed to focus sufficiently on individual river communities.]

    More in the article. Vexnews tweeted the article around, I liked the term “Coalition Summer of Love”. Should spread that around every time they have a spat.

  30. [Kezza2,
    I know how hard it is to find the wherewithall for vet’s bills. I always front up and ask ‘how much’ and then ask if I might be able to pay by instalments if the bill is going to be too big for my pocket. Mostly they ask that I pay for the drugs/anaesthetic up front and then I can pay off the rest over a six week period. In the meantime]

    Don’t want to scare you Kezza, but our quote for our dog Bob’s teeth was $715.

    It ended up being $1215… and that was just for the operation.

    They did warn us that it could be worse than that, because of Bob’s relentless refusal to allow anyone near his teeth for a look-see. If you didn’t mind losing a finger (or two) you might have tried, but I think even a dog whisperer, or Dr. Dolittle himself would have lost a digit, or part of one, courtesy of Bob.

    Then again, if we had known Bob had “the worst set of canine dentures” the vet had ever seen, with up to 20 teeth needing to go – we’d have still gone ahead. If you add the $400-odd for consultations – pre and post, plus the expensive medicine, including an anti-biotic injection that seems to have been formulated principally out of gold nanoparticles – then the decision was whether a total of $1,600 was worth it for our pooch.

    It was a no-brainer.

    Bob’s been a hard-working dog all his life, barking at all the right times, challenging anyone who walks up the street (and any dog, plus bush turkies and cats, especially cats). We’re sure he’s even caused a couple of burglars to abandon our sleepy hollow as a source of funds for their next heroin fix, and go somewhere else.

    He follows me around, dragging his little dog-cushion to wherever I am, in case I might need him to fix something, or to do a maniacal barking job on a stranger in the street.

    He sleeps next to me on the off chance I could have a medical emergency in the dead of the night. He marks the deck constantly just so that everyone knows this is his place, and that if they want to mess with me they have to mess with him first.

    He clears the way for us when we go on our walks. He knows where all the other dogs live, who’ll be on duty that day, and he has a sixth sense about when a little wet, black nose will appear under a garden gate so that he can sample it with a quick nip (there is nothing so tasty as fresh Miniature Foxy nose-meat in the morning, or the evening, for that matter).

    None of this comes cheap. You get top service, you have to expect to pay top dollar.

    But averaged over the years, 12 years to be precise, he’s probably cost us $4,000 in vet bills. I don’t add in the custom made fences, kennel costs when we go away or dog food over that time. Or how much we’ve had to spend on his sidekick Shi-Tzu-Silky, Cozzie. I’ve convinced myself most of those were necessary anyway, dog or no dog.

    In short, when you can’t imagine life without your best friend, loyal, courageous protector and boon companion (who happens to be a dog) then it’s not possible to spare expense. It’s a necessary part of life, a life you wouldn’t have any other way.

    Anyone can have a budgie. It takes being a real mug to stump up the readies to house, feed and medicate a Pygmy Pit Terrier

    Everyone who has a dog will tell the same story.

    Paying for their medical bills isn’t much to give back in return. In fact, I was astounded the vet even asked whether I wanted to pay the extra or end it there and then.

    There was never a choice. We might do without a bauble or two over Chrissy, or the grandkids might get smaller presents to compensate for the extra expense.

    And Bob will have been worth every cent of it, win, lose or draw.

  32. BOERWAR
    [The notion that the rest of Australia should subsidise the water use of Adelaideans and South Australian irrigators is a not very sensible.]
    We Adeladeans are already building a desal plant. We do not want the water primarily to use it. we want it to flow through the system, including with evaporation which happens to be part of the natural cycle, to keep the whole f@cking system alive: and when will you dimwits from up north realise that?

    It is simple. If the Murray Mouth system dies, the whole damned thing will die from the aske up, and then everyone will be up a dry sh!tcreek with no need of a paddle.

  37. BH @ 2207
    Thanks for that reply, I appreciate the amount of detail.

    I am in a Facebook group that Race Matthews started and follow things through that.

    As always, the devil is in the detail with proposals such as Kev’s support fro the membership electing 400 delegates to National Conference. Would that be done by electorates? states? other means? Detail please!

    The Labor Party is of the Unions so I don’t want the Unions to be swept aside.

    I agree, but maybe the relationship needs to be changed to reflect changes in society. The unions now only represent a small proportion of the workforce and not all unions are affiliated. And yet they have a 50% say in the party. Some rebalancing is in order.

    I think the elected Party pollies have the right to choose the leader because they have to work with that person. It’s up to them to choose wisely tho.

    Agree. It is only the parliamentary caucus that really sufficiently know their colleagues to make a proper choice.

    Love the idea of associate members (for a small fee). People like my OH, who hates meetings but is a dedicated a supporter and a helper during campaigns, could be acknowledged this way.

    Indeed! Something like this is long overdue.

    In fact I think many such people would join the party if we modernised our membership system and allowed for forms of involvement other than meetings.

    Lachlan Harris is very articulate and good. I hope he has a future in the party.

    Good to share thoughts with you.

  40. Laughing out loud here but gawd only knows why – I should be crying or screaming instead!

    I just had a bit of a to do with a National Party NSW pollie. You know they make big, direct promises in the week before they’re elected but find it hard to keep them afterwards. Got a bit cheesed off and said ‘it didn’t take you long to become a politician’ to which he replied ‘I’m not a politician – I am a Member of Parliament’!!

  41. Leroy,
    There is no way Briggs could not endorse aplan to keep the Murray Mouth open unless he wants the locals to boil him in oil, sans river water.

  45. don @ 2220

    From the letters page of this morning’s SMH:

    ‘Forget Mister Rabbit, or Doctor No, call him Cinderella: He lost his slipper!

    (Glenn Meeves of Kings Park)

    Boom Tish!

    It is interesting how the letters page in the SMH and the Age are so different.

    Sydney letters are much more humourous so I try to read them whenever time permits.

    The editor also plays along at times and there will be a long series of very funny exchanges.

  46. @lizzie – He may surprise me but I can’t see him argueing the point with irrigators although he says he’ll attend as ‘many meetings as he can’.

    I don’t know about the city-centric, you could be right, or is it just that he uses internal faction power rather than knuckle it out?

  48. Tricot @ 2158

    [It is rich in my view, given the miserable treatment Rudd got from Labor, for some from Labor to tell him to be loyal, shut up and/or go away – or “despatch him to political oblivion”!]

    I am in agreement with you very well said.

  50. Water seems a big problem everywhere
    What makes me angry is we have a whole river of fresh water that is drink able,
    That is not salty, most of the way down till the river widens around the derwent valley.
    Yes a lot is used for power but more could be harnessed for drinking,
    The water boards the labor party have put in place will most likely lose them the election
    And dam water meters,

    But while labor gets the blame the hodegeman libetals agree with it,
    But the people blame labor, they say its needed because the intrustructure need bring up to speed

    But we are not happy most of us live on big blocks grow all our own , we feel they are taking our lifestyle away from us, because of neglect from all sides leaving the old pipes well some 100 years
    What a disgrace to now start work that should of been always upgraded
    So the costing of water was taken out of our rates, and given to these regional well paid board
    Which of course is the tax payer, we just wanted the councils to stay withthed same system and they up grade, it does get dry herd but we don’t like BROWN grass its very depressing
    I know its a fact of life over there but does not mean it has to be here
    Iam very angry with this gov,
    But of course would not vote for the others even with a knife at my throat

    h

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