Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face

Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from a phone poll of 538 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, the other its usual weekend face-to-face poll of 961 respondents. The phone poll’s margin of error is over 4 per cent, but its results broadly agree with Newspoll’s: the primary votes are 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens (Newspoll had it at 29 per cent, 45 per cent and 15 per cent). However, it does not replicate Newspoll’s finding that public’s view of the carbon tax has gotten particularly worse: support is down one point since August to 37 per cent, with opposition up one to 57 per cent (Newspoll had it at 32 per cent and 59 per cent). The face-to-face poll finds the spike Labor recorded a fortnight ago continuing to ebb away: they are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 35 per cent with the Coalition hiking 5.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, taking up the slack from a curious slump in “others” from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent.

On two-party preferred, the face-to-face results produce their usual mismatch between the respondent-allocated and preferences-as-at-previous-election methods, which respectively have it at 56.5-43.5 and 54.5-45.5. It’s interesting to note that this is not true of the phone poll, where the two methods produce similar results: 55.5-44.5 and 55-45. The only other agency to publish both measures, Nielsen, uses a phone polling methodology and hasn’t generally produced hugely different results. It could be that Labor’s weak respondent-allocated preference share is specific to face-to-face polling.

NOTE: Apologies for the issues with the site, both in relation to it being down and comment pagination not working. The former seems to be resolved, touch wood; the latter will be attended to reasonably soon. Until it is, I’ll put up regular posts so that comments threads don’t get too long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face”

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  1. [I would be interested to see how the Oz report it]

    Vic, The OZ’s headline tomorrow:

    PM Cameron backs Tony Abbott’s Direct Action.

  4. [“We’ve taken the international lead on this but it is for other countries to make their own decisions,” he said.]

    I thought we were leading the world?

    Not fair!

  7. [I would be interested to see how the Oz report it]
    On page 26, just where you put your finger when turning a page.

  8. victoria:

    But…but…but. We were told by the coalition and News ltd that our carbon pricing scheme would put us ahead of the rest of the world. Who is the British aristocratic toff who rolls into this country and says it’s they who are leading the world

    I blame Julia Gillard.

  13. [William Bowe

    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    There are evidently quite a few glitches at the moment resulting from a WordPress upgrade. I’m sure they will be ironed out soon enough.
    ]

    Perhaps they should’ve asked Ruawake to upgrade WordPress.

  18. Blossom,

    Just fine. Busy putting some old video tapes on to DVDs. Some from the early nineties.

    Uni under control? Not too many early mornings?

  19. [This little black duck

    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Blossom,

    Just fine. Busy putting some old video tapes on to DVDs. Some from the early nineties.

    Uni under control? Not too many early mornings?
    ]

    UWA was in lockdown yesterday Morning – Phil The Greek was there 🙂

  20. [Blossom,

    Just fine. Busy putting some old video tapes on to DVDs. Some from the early nineties.

    Uni under control? Not too many early mornings?
    ]

    Yeah, uni is okay, I guess. I don’t mind mornings in the hotter months, it’s easier to get out of bed.

    [Emoticons aren’t working. Good.
    ]

    I think they’re pretty cool, although when used in excess, they’re annoying!

  24. [Western Australian Liberal MP Mal Washer has confirmed he will not cross the floor to support the Government’s mining tax when it comes before Federal Parliament.

    Dr Washer has been under pressure from his colleagues after he was reported as saying he could potentially support the Minerals Resource and Rent Tax.

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott warned Dr Washer would get the message “one way or another” not to support the tax.]

    Ominous. And whatever happened to the Liberals’ individual freedom to vote how they please?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-28/washer-not-crossing-floor-on-mining-tax/3607220

  25. [confessions

    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Western Australian Liberal MP Mal Washer has confirmed he will not cross the floor to support the Government’s mining tax when it comes before Federal Parliament.

    Dr Washer has been under pressure from his colleagues after he was reported as saying he could potentially support the Minerals Resource and Rent Tax.

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott warned Dr Washer would get the message “one way or another” not to support the tax.

    Ominous. And whatever happened to the Liberals’ individual freedom to vote how they please?
    ]

    He must have got the message that the Cormannator will ensure he gets preselected for his seat if he doesn’t toe the line.

  26. Where real power lies in the USA
    _________________________
    The Koch Bros..twins and the fourth wealthiest men in the USA…have spent $50 million on gifts to far-right groups since 2000.
    They fund a hosts of political and academic groups,on the far right
    .
    They hate” the State”…they oppose all regulation of the system…they fund anti-climate change groups..they funded the attack on the unions in the recent crisis in Wisconsin..they hate all unions ..and all talk of social welfare
    A shocking story…not from the USA,…but from Al Jessera

    http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/peopleandpower/2011/10/2011102683719370179.html

  27. [There is something odd about the way Abbot leans in to people in that stiff kind of way.]

    There is something about the way Abbott walks in that starchy swagger. It seems very self conscious to me, he’s almost a carbon copy of Ben Stiller Macho, except that stiller does it as a parody of people like Abbott.

    I would like to have a more sophisticated critique of Abbott policy… but unfortunately all he presents is a mucho man parody.

  29. [confessions

    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Frank:

    Abbott’s choice of words sounds deliberately threatening. But what does Washer have to fear? He’s retiring.
    ]

    Washer wants a moderate to Succeed him – The Party powerbrokers want an ultra conservative like Cormann – same in Pearce.

  30. Perhaps Tony Abbott suspects Mal Washer actually cares about his constituency, so threats to inflict Mr Cormann on the hapless voters of Moore might actually work?

  31. Washer must know they will promise him a moderate and secure his vote and then do what they please after he has gone. The end always justifies the means for the hard core Libs.

  34. [confessions

    Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Frank:

    But he’s in the box seat. He can embarrass Abbott on a whole raft of Labor bills. What does he have to fear from Abbott?
    ]

    Liberal Party politics is much dirtieer than the ALP’s – see Gweneth’s post.

    Why do you think Judi Moylan sided with the locals re the Detention Centre in Northam ?

  38. Oh dear.. something not quite right with that picture.. and I don’t just mean Cameron’s sensible climate policies vs Abbotts twaddle.

  41. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    The voters in Washer’s seat don’t have to vote for corman.
    ]

    You are so niaeve – Liberal Voters will bote for anyonev standing for the party – and Moore is a pretty safe Lib Seat – Even Fat cCat would win it for them.

  46. As I posted before – I handed out Labor HTV cards in Washers electorate when Howard went down. I think he would win if he stood as an independent based on his persoanl standing with hie troops. But this is the white shoe brigade (they even wore the white hats) – they will not vote Labor.

  49. [Gweneth

    Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    As I posted before – I handed out Labor HTV cards in Washers electorate when Howard went down. I think he would win if he stood as an independent based on his persoanl standing with hie troops. But this is the white shoe brigade (they even wore the white hats) – they will not vote Labor.
    ]

    Same in Pearce.

  50. [Tobe

    Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    Gwen, he is retiring, it’s not a matter of winning his seat, it’s a matter of what he thinks is right.
    ]

    Makes no difference.

    Retiring or not He crosses the floor – there goes the chance of a Moderate to be pre-selected.

Comments are closed.

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