Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face

Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from a phone poll of 538 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, the other its usual weekend face-to-face poll of 961 respondents. The phone poll’s margin of error is over 4 per cent, but its results broadly agree with Newspoll’s: the primary votes are 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens (Newspoll had it at 29 per cent, 45 per cent and 15 per cent). However, it does not replicate Newspoll’s finding that public’s view of the carbon tax has gotten particularly worse: support is down one point since August to 37 per cent, with opposition up one to 57 per cent (Newspoll had it at 32 per cent and 59 per cent). The face-to-face poll finds the spike Labor recorded a fortnight ago continuing to ebb away: they are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 35 per cent with the Coalition hiking 5.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, taking up the slack from a curious slump in “others” from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent.

On two-party preferred, the face-to-face results produce their usual mismatch between the respondent-allocated and preferences-as-at-previous-election methods, which respectively have it at 56.5-43.5 and 54.5-45.5. It’s interesting to note that this is not true of the phone poll, where the two methods produce similar results: 55.5-44.5 and 55-45. The only other agency to publish both measures, Nielsen, uses a phone polling methodology and hasn’t generally produced hugely different results. It could be that Labor’s weak respondent-allocated preference share is specific to face-to-face polling.

NOTE: Apologies for the issues with the site, both in relation to it being down and comment pagination not working. The former seems to be resolved, touch wood; the latter will be attended to reasonably soon. Until it is, I’ll put up regular posts so that comments threads don’t get too long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face”

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  1. [You must be joking rummel…]

    I must be because im actually talking like its common place for Labor to produce a surplus when we know thats not true.

    Any way I expect a surplus in the next year, Gillard has said it will be so and i trust our PM to do so.

  2. [Interesting how the Australian stock exchange reflects what is happening in China rather than in the Euro zone.]

    I’m not sure that is true TLBD, but is is interesting.

  3. Tobe,

    The First and Second World markets are creaming themselves. An All Ords of plus seven yesterday says that we’re not confident about a resurgent Euro zone.

  4. [Any way I expect a surplus in the next year, Gillard has said it will be so and i trust our PM to do so.]

    Spoken like a true gent… or perhaps a pontificating arse?

  5. [Well on the price on carbon, we’ve put a carbon floor-price in through our budget. We think other countries are looking at this. If you want to get control of global emissions, if you want to deal with this issue then the market is an effective way of doing that.]
    He certainly gave the bird to Tony Abbott.

  6. Frank,

    That is so not respectable. What are the idiots doing? A royal visit is not a “gimme money, that’s what I want” thing.

  7. [This little black duck

    Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 3:07 am | Permalink


    That is so not respectable. What are the idiots doing? A royal visit is not a “gimme money, that’s what I want” thing.

    This was Colin Barnett’s idea – even though the proceeds are going to Charity.

    And Public Transport is Free.

  8. Frank,
    [ you are not allowed to bring your own food or drink.]
    I have seen that so much. Time to tax stadium vendors big-time.

  9. Frank,

    I used to go to our local stadium; plonk on the grass with a thermos to watch our local soccer teams (remember Frank Farina?). Now they have gone all concrete. I do not see what they wanted to achieve. Maybe I do. More bums on seats and up the costs to the locals.

    It ain’t working here. I think Kate Carnell was in charge.

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