Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from a phone poll of 538 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, the other its usual weekend face-to-face poll of 961 respondents. The phone poll’s margin of error is over 4 per cent, but its results broadly agree with Newspoll’s: the primary votes are 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens (Newspoll had it at 29 per cent, 45 per cent and 15 per cent). However, it does not replicate Newspoll’s finding that public’s view of the carbon tax has gotten particularly worse: support is down one point since August to 37 per cent, with opposition up one to 57 per cent (Newspoll had it at 32 per cent and 59 per cent). The face-to-face poll finds the spike Labor recorded a fortnight ago continuing to ebb away: they are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 35 per cent with the Coalition hiking 5.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, taking up the slack from a curious slump in “others” from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent.
On two-party preferred, the face-to-face results produce their usual mismatch between the respondent-allocated and preferences-as-at-previous-election methods, which respectively have it at 56.5-43.5 and 54.5-45.5. It’s interesting to note that this is not true of the phone poll, where the two methods produce similar results: 55.5-44.5 and 55-45. The only other agency to publish both measures, Nielsen, uses a phone polling methodology and hasn’t generally produced hugely different results. It could be that Labor’s weak respondent-allocated preference share is specific to face-to-face polling.
NOTE: Apologies for the issues with the site, both in relation to it being down and comment pagination not working. The former seems to be resolved, touch wood; the latter will be attended to reasonably soon. Until it is, I’ll put up regular posts so that comments threads don’t get too long.
What about if he just “gets sick”…?
The reason I say he would win if he stood as an independent is his people were very proud of his stance against Abbott re abortion. They see him as very principled. So it is sad that he may retire with the bovver boys breathing down his neck when he obviously a well loved MP and someone who actually thinks government is about supporting good policy. Sad to see the real face of liberalism treated this way.
[Makes no difference.
Retiring or not He crosses the floor – there goes the chance of a Moderate to be pre-selected.]
If he crosses the floor it has value to change the entire political debate nationally, not just who follows him in his own seat. More power than he could imagine.
Curious I haven’t seen Mod Lib stick up for Washer.. or did I miss something?
Tobe – and more vitriol than you can imagine. He will be marked as the traitor that destroyed the dream run that many Libs seem to think is not only their right but an inevitability.
Gwen, but Fraser and Hewson would be good mates 🙂
[Gweneth
Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 12:38 am | Permalink
Tobe – and more vitriol than you can imagine. He will be marked as the traitor that destroyed the dream run that many Libs seem to think is not only their right but an inevitability.
]
Exactly.
Libs don’t forgive OR Forget ?
Remember who replaced Petro Georgiou after he crossed the floor.
Not a Moderate.
where are the pages? am sure it’s been said but i’m not scrolling to find out
still not sure about julia things – raised issue three times in past week and noone likes her … not her accent, or her style, or anything … and a leader should be popular. amazed labor vote is what it is, must be negative logic, abbot is best thing going for labor.
Yes there is that Tobe – and we would love him.
When you read his comments it is obvious that there is real disquiet among MPs like Washer about the state of discourse in the party room. How long can this last?
geoffrey why don’t you read William’s post at the top – he explains it there.
Washer is a very interesting story… more interesting than endless clips of Abbott being mucho. Why doesn’t Gratten interview him?
Cannot sleep
With respect William, just what. Has been upgraded, I have not noticed
Toolman is in Perth for CHOGM.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-28/chogm/3607576?section=wa
Tobe – I agree. I think a 4 corners with Petro, Judi and Mal on how the Liberal Party has changed in their political careers would be worth doing and worth watching.
So what’s the best way to see. What the next person after u have said something
if u don’t want to add to the chat
[Toolman is in Perth for CHOGM.]
My apologies as an “Easterner” 🙂
[Tobe – I agree. I think a 4 corners with Petro, Judi and Mal on how the Liberal Party has changed in their political careers would be worth doing and worth watching.}
And don’t forget Washer 🙂
my say – I hope you getting enough sleep with all stress. I know how hard it can be.
Mal is Washer Tobe.
Is all good My Say?
[Mal is Washer Tobe.]
I assumed the “Liberal light himself”… Turnbull
Ah – you thought I meant Malcolm Fraser! Fraser is always Malcolm. I have never heard him referred to as Mal. Mind you, I don’t travel in his circles.
Well I had forgotten Turnbull. (He has lost all interest for me when he started acting like an Abbott toady). It now occurs to me that there are a lot of Malcolm’s in the Liberal party! I am not sure what this means but someone will be able to illuminate us I am sure.
Too many “mal’s” in the Liberal liberal camp Gwen (smiley).
hello My Say,
Hope things are going smoothly and as expected.
Yes Tobe – to fix this: I think that 4 corners with Petro, Judi and ALL the Mals would be worth watching.
I am bailing now.
Nite all
Ciao!
Lenore Taylor does a great job of amusingly criticising the logic of RUDDSTORATION, then discusses it seriously anyway, alas. At least her last sentence is also good. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/libs-might-be-eager-but-labor-cautious-on-rudd-20111028-1mnvi.html
In CarneyWorld(TM)… all is forgiven for the 2008-09 Stimulus package.
But only so he can have a good whinge at the 2012-13 Surplus promise…
[There is also the option of borrowing in order to pay for another round of stimulus spending. But the government has boxed itself in with its pledge to return to surplus by 2012-13. On Thursday, Swan was asked: ”Treasurer, do the problems in Europe and the United States make the budget surplus target more difficult to achieve?”
He replied: ”Yes it does. It’s only commonsense to observe that an impact upon growth will make that surplus target harder to achieve, that is true. I’ve said that on many occasions before today, but the government is determined to achieve that target – but there is no doubt a slowing of growth does have an impact on revenue and on the budget.”
Would the government stick to its political pledge on the budget at the cost of thousands of Australian jobs and businesses? We might be about to find out.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/dividend-awaits-party-that-can-restore-our-confidence-20111028-1mo1w.html#ixzz1c5OzZbKk
Night Gweneth.
This one’s pretty good: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/nannys-wisdom-has-paid-off-before-20111028-1mo27.html
Hey BB
[There is also the option of borrowing in order to pay for another round of stimulus spending. But the government has boxed itself in with its pledge to return to surplus by 2012-13.]
I’m sure the voter land would easily forgive a belated return to surplus with another $900 stimulus cheque and interest rates dropping like a stone (as happened in 2008 at the height of Rudd)
Ha, good luck with that. Gillards locked in tighter to that promis then http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApCwoj35d3M.
But from a lib point of view, go for gold and break another promis.
[rummel
Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 1:34 am | Permalink
Ha, good luck with that. Gillards locked in tighter to that promis then http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApCwoj35d3M.
But from a lib point of view, go for gold and break another promis.
]
Stick to posting on the Wiggles Website like a good little boy.
[Toolman is in Perth for CHOGM.]
And slagged our PM in a complete non sequitur.
[But from a lib point of view, go for gold and break another promis.]
Strange comment rummel. Promises are easy to break if breaking them is popular. You should know that… being a Lib fan…and all that…
Frank,
i will head over to your site then.
[This little black duck
Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 1:40 am | Permalink
Toolman is in Perth for CHOGM.
And slagged our PM in a complete non sequitur.
]
Does one expect anything less from Toolman.
[Strange comment rummel.]
And the world has turned on its axis?
[rummel
Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 1:43 am | Permalink
Frank,
i will head over to your site then.
]
Remember who has the controls 🙂
[And slagged our PM in a complete non sequitur.
What’d he say?
[Strange comment rummel. Promises are easy to break if breaking them is popular. You should know that… being a Lib fan…and all that…]
since when has any broken promis been popular (GST?).
[Remember who has the controls ]
i doubt you would even let me get a log on.
[rummel
Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 1:47 am | Permalink
Remember who has the controls
i doubt you would even let me get a log on.
]
You just answered your own question 🙂
Frank,
It was totally weird. He did an A to B to C in a total nonsense. I hope it’s on-line somewhere. I caught it on ABC95. Must have been 9.5
[This little black duck
Posted Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 1:48 am | Permalink
Frank,
It was totally weird. He did an A to B to C in a total nonsense. I hope it’s on-line somewhere. I caught it on ABC95. Must have been 9.5
]
It’s in the link I posted
No. We got the local. Must be ABC95.
Thanks, Frank
Did you get the same impression as I did?
rummel, the whole Lib stance on climate change is a broken Lib promise, popular for now… but will probably wither… The Libs also supported the cash giveaway last time…
I mean let’s not do anything rational, like insulate homes or build schools.
For cricket peeps http://www.crictime.com/server2.htm
Tobe,
rummel does not do debate.
[I mean let’s not do anything rational, like insulate homes or build schools.]
Come hell and high water Labor must produce a surplus as they have been talking about. They have nailed Labor economic management and credibility to this promis and i hope they fail and hit in another nail into the coffin.