Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face

Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from a phone poll of 538 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, the other its usual weekend face-to-face poll of 961 respondents. The phone poll’s margin of error is over 4 per cent, but its results broadly agree with Newspoll’s: the primary votes are 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens (Newspoll had it at 29 per cent, 45 per cent and 15 per cent). However, it does not replicate Newspoll’s finding that public’s view of the carbon tax has gotten particularly worse: support is down one point since August to 37 per cent, with opposition up one to 57 per cent (Newspoll had it at 32 per cent and 59 per cent). The face-to-face poll finds the spike Labor recorded a fortnight ago continuing to ebb away: they are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 35 per cent with the Coalition hiking 5.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, taking up the slack from a curious slump in “others” from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent.

On two-party preferred, the face-to-face results produce their usual mismatch between the respondent-allocated and preferences-as-at-previous-election methods, which respectively have it at 56.5-43.5 and 54.5-45.5. It’s interesting to note that this is not true of the phone poll, where the two methods produce similar results: 55.5-44.5 and 55-45. The only other agency to publish both measures, Nielsen, uses a phone polling methodology and hasn’t generally produced hugely different results. It could be that Labor’s weak respondent-allocated preference share is specific to face-to-face polling.

NOTE: Apologies for the issues with the site, both in relation to it being down and comment pagination not working. The former seems to be resolved, touch wood; the latter will be attended to reasonably soon. Until it is, I’ll put up regular posts so that comments threads don’t get too long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face”

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  3. [ It could be that the phenomenon of Labor getting a weak respondent-allocated preference share is specific to face-to-face polling.]

    Which is odd, because I thought Morgan face-to-face polls tended to favor Labor on the primary vote cf. to phone polls.

  5. Not sure if this will work because I have been trying to post something all morning and just when I almost get there my PC goes into meltdown.

    Anyway here goes ….

    Good morning PB’ers

  6. Thanks for the new thread William. I thought I was on dial up. Sure we aren’t being conditioned for a NBN roll back ?

  7. Thanks William. This is much easier than trying to negotiate mobs of posts just to get locked out once you find the end.

    Is it just me or does Morgan move in the opposite direction to the other polls much of the time?

  9. Certainly 538 isn’t enough, My Say. But since its results are similar to Newspoll’s, you can add the two together and say we’ve got a nice big sample pointing to 54-46 or 55-45.

  10. Well that ok folks. Take the last.3 polls and av. 54_—44

    So I would say it will bounce around us being about 10/7 points behind for a little time.
    And dam it we will throw in moA, what ever that means
    don’t want to get to close to the dark side yet, let them eat them selves alway gradualy

  11. kakuru – it’s all about your presumed audience.

    My theory is that the face to face measure differs based on what you think others want to hear. It used to be that a few people were reluctant to be seen to be voting Lib, so it differed a little bit from phone polls in favour of Labor. It could be the “shy Tory” effect, not wanting to be seen to be voting for selfish reasons only, or it could be the presumed leaning of the younger/poorer survey taker you’re talking to.

    Now though, we’re supposed to hate Labor. You see it every day in the media, people whine openly about the government. I think the odd Labor voter is now shy about it, assumes the the average listener won’t agree and slightly less likely to say so person to person, hence the face to face now leans a slight amount to the Libs.

  13. my say William can correct me if I am wrong but I think the margins of error are around 5% for 500 and 3% for 1,000, thereabouts, so there is a material difference in confidence terms.

  18. Jaimie is great at picking winners.

    Just look how well he and Lachie did with that One-Tel deal.

    At least Lachie has had the sense to keep well away from the pokies pre-commitment argument.

    Still, I suppose Jaimie had to go-in hard.

    After all, he owns thousands of the damn things.

  19. Bob Brown wants to cut company tax for small business to 25%, despite his party policy to invrease it to 33%. Does anyone know where the 25-33% rates kick in, is it on profits, turnover, staff numbers?

    What are you waffling about Bob? Or as Saul says Eslake says.

    [“I have no doubt that Bob Brown’s proposals will be popular in the broader electorate,” he told AM.

    “But so are high tariffs and the return of capital punishment – that doesn’t make either of them right either.”]

  25. http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/10892490/court-battle-looms-over-mining-tax/

    [Court battle looms over mining tax
    SHANE WRIGHT and NICK BUTTERLY, The West Australian
    October 28, 2011, 2:40 am

    The Gillard Government hopes to ram the mining tax through the Lower House by the end of next month amid claims there are still “unresolved issues” surrounding the plan.

    As new figures suggest WA workers will get a $59 billion boost to their retirement nest eggs because of superannuation changes to be paid for by the tax, one insider revealed to The West Australian the mineral resources rent tax will inevitably be challenged in the courts to determine how it will work.]

    More in the article

  26. http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/10892490/court-battle-looms-over-mining-tax/

    [Court battle looms over mining tax
    SHANE WRIGHT and NICK BUTTERLY, The West Australian
    October 28, 2011, 2:40 am

    The Gillard Government hopes to ram the mining tax through the Lower House by the end of next month amid claims there are still “unresolved issues” surrounding the plan.

    As new figures suggest WA workers will get a $59 billion boost to their retirement nest eggs because of superannuation changes to be paid for by the tax, one insider revealed to The West Australian the mineral resources rent tax will inevitably be challenged in the courts to determine how it will work.]

    More in the article

  27. [ohnJohnsonsonJohn Johnsonson

    by Dan_Gulberry

    James Packer has gone from looking like the late Kerry Packer to looking like he ate Kerry Packer.

    5 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
    Like this tweet

  29. BK

    James Packer is using the same language as a repubican from the US. Remember tne criticism of Obama eating arugula salad as being elitist, as opposed to the honest American who eats junk food! Has our country become a farce?

  31. [She says Labor hopeless, but Abbott is a hollow man]

    I read that “labor is hopeless” line as more what the current “meme” is rather than what she actually thinks. Might be wishful thinking – but if you reread?????

  32. Today’s AFR article by Laura Tingle on Tony Abbott included the words “Labor Hopeless” in the title but only one short sentence on Labor and the PM. The rest was a demolition job on Mr Abbott.

    Why was it therefore necessary to refer at all to the Government in the headline?

  33. jenauthor

    Yes Tingle devotes most of her commentary criticising Abbott as well as mention the shadow front bench the article “enough already”!

  34. Citizen – it was quite likely the catchline was written by a sub, and not Tingle. My OH is a journo by trade and much of what they write is butchered by subs, then the catchline is what the sub thinks it should be.

    I know fairfax has removed a lot of subs, but still ….

  36. Apolgise for my post. Some words disappeared!

    What i intended to say was it appears Tingle is making the proclamation of

    “enough already”!

  37. [Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    @latikambourke I have proposed a rearrangement of business for Tue that would ensure the big race was taken into account -finalise on Mon :)]

  38. When did James Packer get to be such a fat ugly pig? He was merely an ugly pig a few years back – must be those Goanna genes kicking in.

  40. [jenauthor
    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 3:34 pm | Permalink
    She says Labor hopeless, but Abbott is a hollow man

    I read that “labor is hopeless” line as more what the current “meme” is rather than what she actually thinks. Might be wishful thinking – but if you reread?????]

    I agree with that. There was no indication she sees Labor as hopeless. It was all about Abbott’s shortcomings.

  41. [ABC journo for LNP role? We hear Campbell Newman’s people are investing a lot of time wooing an ABC TV journo to head the central communications unit of an LNP government in Queensland. The journo is quite popular with party operatives. “She was also offered a major role in an LNP administration at the last state election, held in 2009,” our tipster reveals. “Only problem was they lost. She’s been biding her time since.”]

    In crikey today – tips and rumours. Could this be the woman who ran the ABC program and always gave a ‘balanced’ (lol) view of Labor? Can’t think of her name.

  42. “Packer also reckons Asian Tourists wont bother coming to the Casino if pre committment required.”

    That’s because Jamie, like the TeaBagger party he supports, are inveterate liars. I was in the Marina Bay Sands Casino in Singapore earlier this year along with about a thousand Asians. Guess what? We all had to show our passports to get in. And it was a royal pain in the date doing it. So that piece of crap from the poor, little, rich bigboy doesn’t cut it. When you make as much money from helpless out of control gamblers, you tend to want to keep it.

    By the way, how can one part of a super impressive facility be so depressing? The fact that they allow smoking there probably has something to do with it. But don’t tell young Chins. It might give him some ideas. I believe he has just the fall guys in Rabbits Warren and Gus Gould to be the ones to inform Joe Public next time Friday Night Football rolls around.

  44. [I agree with that. There was no indication she sees Labor as hopeless. It was all about Abbott’s shortcomings.]

    I read it like that but the headline ‘Labor hopeless’ is out there and anyone who sees a tweet or the headline and does not read the article will see it as seen.

  45. [ABC journo for LNP role? We hear Campbell Newman’s people are investing a lot of time wooing an ABC TV journo to head the central communications unit of an LNP government in Queensland. The journo is quite popular with party operatives.]

    That doesn’t narrow it down much at their ABC. Melissa Clark?

  46. BH:

    [In crikey today – tips and rumours. Could this be the woman who ran the ABC program and always gave a ‘balanced’ (lol) view of Labor? Can’t think of her name.]

    Madonna King?

  47. Victoria, did u think the headline differed from story, I nearly didn’t look

    ,I thought Laura tingle was not saying that, others are, any way that was my take?

    She gave abbott the round of the kitchen I thought

    What going back in time I am having school lunches ironing uniforms and helping with reading

  48. Greensborough Growler

    [charlton,

    I thought the idea of the paywall was to put all their mistakes out of view.]

    It that be the case, it ain’t working too well.

    Perhaps like us now, they don’t have an edit function.

  50. – Fruit salad and bouquets –
    The Queen loves dressing colourfully; her flair and very English taste match her rank and her finances. The pace of her tour was leisurely and nonchalant. The posies – an important theme, the weather, too. Debating HM’s pink dress became a major issue for the commentators: was it cerise pink or a fuchia pink, an apricot or a peach?
    The visit is coming to an end. Bon voyage, Elizabeth!

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