Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face

Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from a phone poll of 538 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, the other its usual weekend face-to-face poll of 961 respondents. The phone poll’s margin of error is over 4 per cent, but its results broadly agree with Newspoll’s: the primary votes are 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens (Newspoll had it at 29 per cent, 45 per cent and 15 per cent). However, it does not replicate Newspoll’s finding that public’s view of the carbon tax has gotten particularly worse: support is down one point since August to 37 per cent, with opposition up one to 57 per cent (Newspoll had it at 32 per cent and 59 per cent). The face-to-face poll finds the spike Labor recorded a fortnight ago continuing to ebb away: they are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 35 per cent with the Coalition hiking 5.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, taking up the slack from a curious slump in “others” from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent.

On two-party preferred, the face-to-face results produce their usual mismatch between the respondent-allocated and preferences-as-at-previous-election methods, which respectively have it at 56.5-43.5 and 54.5-45.5. It’s interesting to note that this is not true of the phone poll, where the two methods produce similar results: 55.5-44.5 and 55-45. The only other agency to publish both measures, Nielsen, uses a phone polling methodology and hasn’t generally produced hugely different results. It could be that Labor’s weak respondent-allocated preference share is specific to face-to-face polling.

NOTE: Apologies for the issues with the site, both in relation to it being down and comment pagination not working. The former seems to be resolved, touch wood; the latter will be attended to reasonably soon. Until it is, I’ll put up regular posts so that comments threads don’t get too long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face”

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  1. “Has Britney been applying the bottle to his hair? Looks much browner than usual.”

    I think he applies it to his tongue when is around Tone.

  2. Have a look at these and then have a guess where you might find them:

    ‘Abbott must balance the books

    A mining tax would help harness the proceeds of the boom

    …As the debate unfolds, Mr Abbott needs to show that he has an alternative vision for governmentt that stretches beyond simply saying “no”.’

  3. I think the Labor is hopeless quote was only to give the impression of balance however by the time you got half-way through the opening paragraph that message was buried by the attack on Abbott. Lingle has always been slightly biased to Labor but I can’t recall her writing an article as savage as that one before.

    I am excited by the prospect of Madonna leading the PR campaign for the LNP in QLD. She is a real sweetie. Go Madonna.

  4. citizen
    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 3:35 pm

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/10/28/morgan-55-5-44-5-phone-poll-56-5-43-5-face-to-face/#comment-1069537

    [Today’s AFR article by Laura Tingle on Tony Abbott included the words “Labor Hopeless” in the title but only one short sentence on Labor and the PM. The rest was a demolition job on Mr Abbott.

    Why was it therefore necessary to refer at all to the Government in the headline?]

    Pity about that. The AFR is usually ahead of the average for quality analysis. The wording of the headline lets the piece down. What were they trying to achieve with that? An ABC-style “balance? That doesn’t work.

  5. Victoria. My big pond doesn’t work here of course if i was very clever I may be able to find it in this wired up futuristic home

    So I am stuck with g mail wish I could send you a photo

    Things are much improved, the main line came out to day so , also the breathing tubes yesterday
    We are now down to the antibiotic drip and feeding tubes, and now is also not juidence.
    So muck skill and knowledge at me lb, children hospital
    Daughter had her first cuddle and saw him for the first time, her husband caught it on camera
    The moment was, beautiful to see,

    This is a split level 3 story house so hoping to lose a few kilos, lol

    O my old bones lol
    Well better do the routine showers ect, I hear myself saying, well mummy will fix it
    Then I reslise no, that’s my other life, but i am tired but loving it much to
    My son in laws horror all the cats the dog and children and me ended up in their bed
    .

  6. my say

    I am very pleased all is progressing well for mother and child.

    When things go back to normal, you can have a hard earned rest!

  7. Yes but Victoria. They read out of pads also the 3 year old flicks the screen side ways like we would of read a golden book, they know how to switch computers on, link other tvs

    I just give up

  8. charlton I loved the way she put Fraser on the spot on her Friday morning segment. Anyone who gives it to Fraser is a sweetie.

  9. Greensborough Growler

    [charlton,

    At least this time she’ll probably get paid for her services.]

    I’m not sure of the implication there but I’ve heard she was the highest paid ABC 612 employee but that’s only anecdotal.

  10. [About the House
    @AboutTheHouse
    MT @AlboMP: I have proposed a rearrangement of business for Tue that would ensure the big race was taken into account -finalise on Mon :)]

  11. [At least this time she’ll probably get paid for her services.]

    Hopefully they’ll give her a SerfChoices-style “agreement”. ‘Twould be only fitting.

  12. Will the pages come up soon, at 60 or so comments don’t mind scrolling through but 1000 plus a bit longer!!!!
    Just watch out for the spam ie a rumour about you, I have had one supposedly from William, The Kouk and now Johathon H is giving warning about them, supposed to be coming from him.

  13. victoria:

    [charlton

    I am sure you have realised by now that DavidWH is wanting the LNP to win the next QLD state election?]

    Yes, I am.

    If Madonna could find a reason to bag Labor, she wouldn’t hesitate.

    I wish her well but also say from a Labor perspective: good riddance.

  14. Agree with Victoria and Charlton Madonna King used to be beamed through to us on mid north coast of NSW, I soon learned to turn her off

  15. It’s more than a want victoria. It’s more like a burning need. I am so over the Bligh government and just hope the LNP can hold their internal fighting reasonably together for a few months longer.

    I notice the C-M hasn’t dripped one of it’s anti-LNP stories for a few days.

  16. OH just got paged for the first fire of the season. This one is a grass fire. I doubt it will be the last this year after all the lush growth that has built up over the past 18 months.

  17. DavidWH

    Be careful what you wish for. Victorians were over State Labor after 11 years, and now we have the useless Libs. I wish we could get Labor back running the show

  18. She gave Newman a fair bit of stick over his lack of disclosures charlton.

    I agree Fraser is smart but I don’t like the way he puts people down and runs a smear with that smirky grin.

  19. mari:

    [Agree with Victoria and Charlton Madonna King used to be beamed through to us on mid north coast of NSW, I soon learned to turn her off.}

    I wasn’t aware she had that much exposure.

    Yet another example of Scott’s & Newman’s debasing of Aunty.

  20. victoria I work with a very loyal Labor man who continually tells me that a bad Labor government will always be better than a good Liberal government. He may be correct some of the time but not in the case of QLD Labor.

  21. victoria the last time we had a Coalition government up here it was a disaster and a bit of an accident with Goss losing the unloseable election. I do hope Newman can do better if he gets a chance but he has a tough job holding the LNP together.

    We may yet end up with a government where Katter holds the balance of power which would be a worse disaster than either of the alternatives.

    It will be a very interesting election.

  22. DavidWH

    [She gave Newman a fair bit of stick over his lack of disclosures charlton.

    I agree Fraser is smart but I don’t like the way he puts people down and runs a smear with that smirky grin.]

    Deservedly so. Newman was well aware of the his duty of disclosure but ignored it. From memory it had to do with some properties in North Queensland which his mother, a former Senator, owns. It was all a bit smelly & King really had no choice but to grill him on it.

    Without wanting to turn this into a Queensland thread, there is some truth in your comment that Fraser can be a little arrogant. I put that down to his relative youth.

  23. @DavidWH,

    I think Katter holding balance of power is more likely than a Coalition Majority.

    I don’t think voters are ready to accept the current leader of LNP,

    I know my parents don’t like him at all.

  24. [It should be noted that the Melbourne Cup race is run at 3.00pm. Usually Abbott is throwing a tantrum at that time]

    And wouldn’t THAT be funny – he starts at 2:50 …. and all the govt & indies retire to the lounge to watch the race while Abbott raves on to all his dopey colleagues!

  25. [And wouldn’t THAT be funny – he starts at 2:50 …. and all the govt & indies retire to the lounge to watch the race while Abbott raves on to all his dopey colleagues!]

    The rant that stopped a nation? 😉

  26. Carefull what you wish for zoidlord. Newman may fail to win Ashgrove and we will be left with Seeney as premier in a LNP majority government.

  27. [James Packer has admitted he gets upset when people accuse him of making millions of dollars from gamblers’ misery.]

    Does he think everyone is deliriously happy to throw money at him and lose their houses? Silly boy. Come into the real world James.

  28. I often use the how ‘show all’ feature on this forum when I am doing a catch up as I can just keep scrolling until I’ve read all the posts, it is also good when you are doing a search for a particular person or subject.

    When you refresh the page don’t touch the scroll bar or click anywhere on the page until the refresh is done. The page will be positioned where you were before refreshing and you can then continue reading.

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