Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.

Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).

Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).

A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.

The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 8 of 13
1 … 7 8 9 … 13

  1. [bemused
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    david @ 324

    bemused that is the post of the day yu fekin bewdy 😆

    Awww gee…. I’m all embarrassed now 😆 ]

    and it suits you 😆

  7. [Oh really?

    Rather strange those retrospective justifications. Are you prepared to believe that the whole of caucus and the whole ministry are such precious petals they could not stand up to one man? Doesn’t say much for them does it? ]

    I hate to use The Australian as a source, but this article says that its more complicated than the ministry being ‘precious petals’:

    [Not long after his stunning election victory, the “exceptionally nasty” side of Rudd surfaced. ; Eventually he alienated most of caucus. There is nothing new in prime ministers having enemies but they also had supporters. Rudd had almost none. The apex of his stupidity occurred when six senior backbenchers went to see Rudd to “discuss” the decision of the special minister of state, Joe Ludwig, to slash their printing allowance in half. Ludwig was right to do so but when “the magnificent six” entered the prime ministerial office they were met with a torrent of abuse and expletives that would make a bullock driver blush. It was the beginning of the end of Rudd.

    Bit by bit he estranged almost the entire caucus. They became fed up with his insufferable behaviour. In a column in July last year I recounted how shocked I was, when dining with three senior Labor MPs, to learn how much he was loathed. Another told me: “He was an out-of-control dictator. Everywhere he went there was death and destruction.” Rudd committed political suicide.

    Throughout all this Gillard remained his loyal deputy. Of the many MPs and senators I spoke to not one suggested she had any part in a conspiracy to dethrone Rudd. He had survived for one reason: polls showed he would romp home at the next election. All that changed after a series of mishaps including the pink batts fiasco, the mining tax and, after Copenhagen, his loss of interest in climate change. Overnight Labor’s support collapsed and the reason for keeping Rudd disappeared. His replacement was obvious. The faction leaders went to his deputy and told her to run. When she refused, declaring loyalty to Rudd, she was told, “If you don’t run we’ll find someone who will.”

    The rest is history. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/the-experts-have-got-it-wrong-gillard-was-not-disloyal-to-rudd/story-e6frgd0x-1226146014954

  10. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Trioli just called the PM: This is Woman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #auspol the fuggin butch #qanda
    now

  12. my say they are running out of attack weapons, Julia is still there, the Govt is still there, the carbon price bill will pass, the ciggie legislation will pass, the NBN is moving nicely, life is good, the polls have stabilised and Work Choices looms…the Worlds Greatest Treasurer has the economy in hand and Abbott is (excuse me talking to a lady as yourself) almost fecked.

  13. Why have they exhumed Ms Coonan one of the Howard/Costello governments’ big FAILS.

    She stuffed up the NBN big time and that was about it.

  14. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @LaTrioli you should be ashamed of yourself calling the PM: This Woman #auspol
    now

  15. [360

    The Finnigans

    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Trioli just called the PM: This is Woman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #auspol the fuggin butch #qanda
    now
    ]

    Or as I like to call her considering she is Italian

    La Troia 🙂 As in a lady of the night.

  16. rishane @ 357
    Yes, I have read that article.

    So one man can bully, how many were in caucus then??? Give me a break.

    If he is so overwhelming then maybe we should bring him back immediately! (just joking about that)

    I detect none of that sort of attitude or behaviour in any of the MPs I know. OTOH, all is not sweetness and light toward Julia either.

  18. [She stuffed up the NBN big time and that was about it.]

    She also resigned from the shadow ministry rather than serve under an Abbott leadership.

    Given what the Sophies and the Minchins did to Turnbull, that counts for something in my book.

  20. [gusface

    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    is overington an extra from the original thunderbirds?

    she is disconcertingly marionette like
    ]

    She works for Limited news – it might give you a clue 🙂

  22. [So one man can bully, how many were in caucus then???]

    bemused:

    Have you ever served under a bullying and manipulative boss? I have, and I can tell you that the power pendulum runs all their way.

    I infamously got a movement going in one workplace to get my then boss’s behaviour noticed upstream. It led to all kinds of disaster for my then boss, at untold personal cost to me and a handful of my then colleagues.

    If I were a Labor Caucus member experiencing the same fate, I’d just as soon put my vote behind a kinder, gentler leader rather than go through that again.

  23. confessions @ 368

    She also resigned from the shadow ministry rather than serve under an Abbott leadership.

    Given what the Sophies and the Minchins did to Turnbull, that counts for something in my book.

    I actually encountered her and Bruce Baird when I gave evidence to a parliamentary and both were pleasant enough.

    Then for a bit of balance there was a McGauran also on the committee.

  27. [trioli

    is a slag

    saying

    “this woman”]

    [Trioli just called the PM: This is Woman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]

    And this is why Julie Bishop won’t be made leader of the Liberals when Abbott goes under the bus. Many conservatives just do not accept a woman as leader. Many women even, do not accept a woman as leader.

    India’s done it. New Zealand, Germany, Denmark, Philippines, even Muslim Pakistan.

    Sorry to say, Australia is just not grown up enough for a woman to be accepted as leader.

  28. [george
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:56 pm | Permalink
    Ughh, Janet A, is there a more useless “journo”?]

    Did you just give Piers and Jonesy a compliment?

  29. [So one man can bully, how many were in caucus then??? Give me a break. ]

    I think its a question of work environment. You think its a healthy environment having someone in charge who insists on doing everything themselves (which lead to basic things not getting done) and launching volcanic rages against anyone who goes against him? Besides everything else, I think its dumb politics to be like that in a system like the Australian one where your leadership is dependent on your colleagues.

  30. confessions @ 372

    Yes I have had such a boss on more than one occasion. But it is a poor analogy as I and my colleagues did not elect those bosses and have the theoretical (or actual) power to remove them as a counter.

  32. [Did you just give Piers and Jonesy a compliment?]

    I don’t often read/listen to either Mod Lib. Janet on the other hand, I used to read a fair bit during Howard’s time. In the end, the “rinse and repeat” methodology of the sloppy journalism was too hard to continue swallowing 🙁

  35. Saw a good one today on another blog site from which i got banned some time ago.

    I’ll reproduce it here for your delectation:

    [Not too many people would be aware of the requirements of the Constitution and how it is that acts of deception occured at the swearing in ceremonies at the last election.

    It is acknowledged that the Australian Constitution is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, so therefore it is a bit difficult to see how an Act of the Australian Parliament can change it.

    Section 42 of The Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act says – Every senator and every member of the House of Representatives shall before taking his seat make and subscribe before the Governor-General,or some person authorised by him,an oath or affirmation of allegiance in the form set forth in the schedule to this Constitution.

    Schedule – Oath
    I,A.B.,do swear that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Victoria,Her heirs and successors according to law.SO HELP ME GOD!
    Affirmation – I,A.B.,do solemnly affirm and declare that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to her majesty Queen Victoria,Her heirs and successors according to law.

    Note: The name of the King or Queen of the United kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland for the time being is to be substituted from time to time.

    If one Googles YouTube – “Julia Gillard being sworn in as PM” it is shown that she isn’t sworn in Constitutionally and has no legal right to take her seat in Parliament.

    If one Googles YouTube – “PM Julia Gillard Affirms Allegiance to the Queen” it will be seen that those to be sworn in were already seated and that the affirmation was taken as a group with the affirmation wording being read to them beginning – “Do each of you swear that you will be faithful….”, whereas the requirement is that the oath be taken individually as prescribed before seats are taken.

    And then there is section 44…]

    Now what the poster appears to me to be suggesting is that Julia Gillard is not PM (and none of her front bench are ministers) because they were already sitting down when they took the oath and they all said it together.

    So right you lot, pack it in, give up and go home. Any minute now Tones, having seen this and done a facepalm is going to turn up at the lodge with a Bailiff and toss Julia and Tim out on the street, dump their gear on the footpath and get the locks changed i guess.

    This is not the most unhinged of comments that i have seen of late, at the site i am banned from i mean. As the passing of the Carbon Price bills gets closer there is serious wackiness going on out there people.

  36. Surprising commentary from David Penberthy thrashing the pokie industry and supporting the Govt:

    [Codes betray fans on pokie addiction – The government has done a few dumb and deceitful things at the behest of the Green and independent MPs it relies on for its survival but this is not one of them. It is wholly in the public good.

    In the past 20 years we have seen Australian states which never had pokies become homes to a poker machine industry which eclipses Reno and Las Vegas, and with all the corresponding social problems.

    The line peddled by the NRL and AFL about the impact of the problem gambling crackdown is identical to empty threats both codes made 30 years ago when cigarette advertising and sponsorships were banned.

    We’ll all be rooned, they said, and three decades on they’re making more money than ever. Of particular interest in this debate the role of former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett, who in addition to being president of AFL club Hawthorn was also the inaugural chairman and a director of mental health organisation Beyond Blue. ]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/yoursay/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/codes_betray_fans_on_pokie_addiction/

  38. a bit of European news…

    http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15415378,00.html

    [25.09.2011
    Sarkozy hit hard as French left seizes Senate majority

    Right-wing parties have controlled the Senate in France for more than five decades, but historic elections have now given the left-wing opposition a majority, dealing a blow to President Nicolas Sarkozy.

    France’s left-wing opposition dealt a heavy blow to the conservative government of French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday, taking over his majority in the Senate just seven months before he stands for re-election.

    The Socialist Party, along with the Communist and Green parties, claim they have won enough seats to take power in the upper house of the legislature. If confirmed by election officials, it would give Socialists their first majority in the traditionally conservative Senate in decades.

    “Nicolas Sarkozy will go down in history as the president that lost the right its majority in the Senate,” said Francois Hollande, favorite to win the nomination among the Socialists to challenge Sarkozy next year.]

    More in the link

  39. [Throughout all this Gillard remained his loyal deputy. Of the many MPs and senators I spoke to not one suggested she had any part in a conspiracy to dethrone Rudd. He had survived for one reason: polls showed he would romp home at the next election. All that changed after a series of mishaps including the pink batts fiasco, the mining tax and, after Copenhagen, his loss of interest in climate change. Overnight Labor’s support collapsed and the reason for keeping Rudd disappeared. His replacement was obvious. The faction leaders went to his deputy and told her to run. When she refused, declaring loyalty to Rudd, she was told, “If you don’t run we’ll find someone who will.”

    The rest is history ]

    That should be enshrined in Labor Party history….I will never ever forget the look of total despair on Julia Gillards face as she walked out of that meeting, my wife suddenly cried bitterly, women know certain things us guys don’t comprehend…that is the reason I will continue to support the PM and the reason I despise the likes of Evan’s lack of respect for Julia Gillard and his absurd love affair with Rudd.
    Kevin is a good FM that is his patch, long may he graze in it, he was given the chance of a political lifetime and failed to reach the heights required to earn the trust and respect of a country that gave it to him.

  40. Mr Oakeshott coming out of this well. Ms Gillard coming out of it well as well – mainly because Ms Oakeshott is obviously being honest in assessing her as a good negotiator.

    Mr Butler is coming out of it well by being honest, emotionally, as well as humourous. He is very well on top of his brief. Ms Albrechtson is coming out of it like Ms Albrechtson. She is trolling to be tryiing but she is more used to sniping away in print without return fire, and it shows. Ms Coonan started off being the same old Ms Coonan – a failed has-been party hack hacking away womanfully at the Labor Government but sparked really well when asked a policy question on mental health.

    Ms Trioli started off nervously but seems to be infusing the evening with a certain verve and laughter missing from the shows run by Mr Jones. She is at times a bit over-directive but she also appears to lack Jones’ need to be the ultimate star of the show and is proving adept at moving the discussion along.

  41. [But it is a poor analogy as I and my colleagues did not elect those bosses and have the theoretical (or actual) power to remove them as a counter.]

    Actually the analogy simply reinforces the Caucus position. Most workers DON’T have the option of retracting support from their boss in order to topple him/her, and so put up with bullying behaviour, challenge it, or leave the workplace which is what I ended up doing.

    But Caucus do have that option, and clearly exercised their will that night. If Rudd was truly loved he would’ve contested the leadership the next day, as he’d promised that night he pledged to do so in a press conference.

  42. rishane @ 379
    Let’s be clear, the PM is merely another elected member of parliament, chosen by his peers, as their leader for the time being.

    Peer groups can normally pull one the group into line unless they are a bunch of sooks who are prepared to be bullied. Somehow I can’t see the members of parliament I know as being like that.

    Face facts, it was all run by factional hacks and a few whose ambition outstripped their abilities.

  45. Mod Lib @ 381

    Sorry to say, Australia is just not grown up enough for a woman to be accepted as leader.

    Absolute nonsense.

    Dammit! I agree with a Lib. 😐

  46. [Sorry to say, Australia is just not grown up enough for a woman to be accepted as leader.]
    cuppa it will happen before we reach mid 2013…at the moment the hard core 36% is hanging in..that has now bottomed out…the hard yards are nearly done…keep the faith brother, this woman Gillard is not finished with yet.

  50. [He is very well on top of his brief.]

    Butler is a very good minister, and has proven in numerous press conferences to be well briefed, well informed and capable of handling the curve ball.

    I hope he travels well within the party.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 8 of 13
1 … 7 8 9 … 13