For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.
Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).
Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).
A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.
The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.
The polls are becoming alarmingly consistent for Labor/Gillard.
george
Good one.
ru
[Did you let a nurse escort someone to the psych ward alone? OH&S may pay you a visit.]
Depended on the patient and whether they were detained or not. The nurses organise the transfer as appropriate.
mtbw
I am a fan of William McInnes.
Thanks for the recommendations. Will take note
Excellent outcome. A 2% increase in the centre left vote. The reactionary vote is stagnant. In more ways than one.
But hey, still 2 years to go, Labor is playing “the long game”, Abbott will self-destruct, News Ltd will collapse, the MSM will realise the error of their ways. 🙂
[1
Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
The polls are becoming alarmingly consistent for Labor/Gillard.
]
And is your worst nightmare Glen Jnr 🙂
I see that the Labor charge that Mr Abbott is a destructive nay saying wrecker is accepted by the majority of the electorate.
Of course, Mr Abbott has had something to do about this view of his qualities as well.
Did Mr Abbott do a stunt today?
His polling usually improves when he lies low or when he tells low lies. Whatever.
[victoria
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 6:04 pm | Permalink
david
I wonder if Wilkie is open to voluntary pre commitment. Demetriou said something about discussing that with Wilkie ]
vic I get increasingly bothered with Wilkie threatening to back Abbott when the Govt have been doing their darndest to get this pokie thing through FOR HIM and it is Abbott who consistently supports those who oppose the new measures. Where is Wilkies logic in supporting the arse who is helping defeat it. Got me stuffed, time for a beer see if that assists seeing Wilkies logic.
[2732 ruawake
…..
Speaking from experience, you are wRONg, yet again.]
No when hold up, know when to fold up and know when to run,
You don’t argue against the doctor when his talking bout the psych ward,
Cause the doctor knowssss how the psych ward is done.
I’m surprised at an Essential poll showing such poor support for onshore processing. I thought those polled online would be more tolerant. Does Essential have an archive where we can see what the polling on this was in 2007?
[And while I am at it if you want another great read get hold of a copy of “Precious Bodily Fluids” by Charles Waterstreet it is very funny.]
mytbw – a terrific read. Those who grew up in Sydney would love it.
Comment on Grattan’s bullshit article – ha bloody ha
[Guess what – the AFL hasn’t joined the campaign against poker machine reform. HAS NOT JOINED IT. Anyone want to retract anything now? Michelle?]
Comments now closed, unsurprisingly
[Depended on the patient and whether they were detained or not. The nurses organise the transfer as appropriate.]
What do you mean by detained? Admission to a psychiatric ward by definition means detention. You cannot leave without permission.
It may just be a question of asking, signing a book or getting a doctor to allow it. All people in a psych ward are detained.
This is why States have mental health legislation.
If the Gillard Government fails to deliver on mandatory precommitment AND Mr Abbott does the switcharoo and delivers on it then why would Mr Wilkie not support Mr Abbott on that vote.
The policy outcome is the thing, after all.
For the rest Mr Wilkie might be interested in renegotiating a deal with Ms Gillard once Mr Abbott has helped him pass the mandatory precommitment legislation.
david
[latikambourke Latika Bourke
Andrew Wilkie says if #pokies bet-limits aren’t introduced then he would possibly be facilitating Abbott into Govt despite his oppn to it]
If true, this is very concerning. I thought Wilkie was taking a “moral” stand on this. Doesn’t make sense.
William,
Wing Man here.
Your third par starts thus:
[Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make like difficult for the government…]
I think you meant “life difficult for the government”.
Remember, I’m here to help,
ShowsOn
George (from previous thread)
Love it. That’s now my PC’s wallpaper. 😀
[Did Mr Abbott do a stunt today?]
BW, i heard him said today that if Labor doesnt deliver the surplus in 2012/13 then it is another broken promise.
david – I watched Xenophon awhile ago and one comment hit me. He was asked about Wilkie bringing the Govt down over this when Wilkie knew that Abbott wouldn’t agree to the legislation. Xenophon said wtte ‘we’ll see what Mr Abbott will do’.
I thought, hang about – is Xenophon setting up Wilkie to fail on this because X wants Abbott in power.
[If true, this is very concerning. I thought Wilkie was taking a “moral” stand on this. Doesn’t make sense.]
It is completely idiotic. Why would you shift your support from a party that supports, or is at least sympathetic to your policy, to a party that is flat out opposed to it?
And remember, this is Wilkie’s policy objective. So really it is up to him to convince convince at least two out of Oakeshot, Windsor, Katter or Crook to support it.
The main thing is that the Labor Government is introducing a reform that will reduce the pain and suffering of hundreds of thousands of Australia.
And that the callous Mr Abbott is trying to prevent this very reform.
As usual, Mr Abbott just does not give a sh*t about anyone or anything other than getting personal power.
The Liberals would do well to get rid of this sociopath before he ever becomes PM because he will be almost impossible to shift once in.
[1 Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
The polls are becoming alarmingly consistent for Labor/Gillard.]
Polls falls, polls stabilise, polls rise.
As we are in the middle of reforms, and reforms have many strong detractors and lukewarm supports, I think the Liberals should be extremely worried that the polls have stabilised.
Riley on 7 was fair on pokies. Covered Demetriou saying he didn’t support reforms but would prefer to work through negotiation rather than campaigning – he also belittled Clubs Australia speaking on AFL’s behalf. Then gave some coverage to Tim Costello commenting on pokie damage and gave some frightening statistics on the destruction they cause. Expect that this will be better coverage than that to be provided by the ABC at 7pm.
[Andrew Wilkie says if #pokies bet-limits aren’t introduced then he would possibly be facilitating Abbott into Govt despite his oppn to it]
Like Sen. X. I have never trusted Wilkie.
[It may just be a question of asking, signing a book or getting a doctor to allow it. All people in a psych ward are detained. ]
Are you sure? What if someone voluntarily admits themselves, can’t they then also choose to leave?
david
[Got me stuffed, time for a beer see if that assists seeing Wilkies logic.]
It is quite simple. He knows all too well how it works in the bureaucracy .If he gives even the smallest of signs that he would consider a comprimise on any part he will be desieged with comprimise options. To be taken seriously they must believe that he will definitely not blink and so tempt them to play chicken with him.
Because neither major party will tackle pokies on their own.
The Libs won’t, ever, probably. (Maybe. Unless Tony Abbott thinks he can get the keys to the lodge. Maybe. If he puts it in writing.)
The ALP agreed, during negotiations, to Wilkie’s conditions.
If Wilkie applies no pressure on the ALP, they will wimp out. We know this.
So Wilkie has to apply blackmail to pressure the government.
Blackmail relies on threats. A threat is of no use whatsoever unless you are prepared to carry it out (or at least your victim believes you are prepared to carry it out).
From Wilkie’s point of view there are 3 possible outcomes:
1. He can strongarm the ALP into fulfilling their agreed commitment and bet-limiting legislation gets up. Everyone happy (as far as he is concerned).
2. He can let the ALP weasel out of its commitment; some wishy-washy voluntary system gets up, nothing much is achieved.
3. He dumps the ALP, the Coalition get in, nothing much is achieved.
Only option 1 gets his primary goal – he has to apply as much pressure as he can, and the ALP has to believe that he will pull the pin if he doesn’t get his way. The best way to make them believe it is to honestly be willing to put Tony Abbott in if he doesn’t get his way.
I don’t necessarily have a lot of time for single issue people in politics, but in this case his cause is just, and the time for action is now, so I’m willing to applaud Wilkie over this.
[Are you sure? What if someone voluntarily admits themselves, can’t they then also choose to leave?]
How do you voluntarily admit yourself? You cannot.
Finns
What about if Europe implodes, the US disappears down the tubes, the China asset bubble pops and…
Oh, never mind…
I see that the Floridans have dealth Mr Perry a death-ish blow in something like a straw poll. I regard this is a great pity. He was my fav Republican nominee right after Ms Bachmann and Ms Pallin. I was hoping that he would pray for some more rain for Texas and hit our neck of the woods instead. Everything is getting dry around here.
Frankly I think his policy is reasonable. Apparently poker machines can be converted to $1 bet machines by a technician modifying the machine. They DON’T need to replace the machines.
The government should propose to give a rebate on machine conversions.
Rugby World Cup
Final score at Stadium Taranaki Wales 81 – Namibia 7
[How do you voluntarily admit yourself? You cannot.]
Why not?
If someone thinks they are mentally ill, why can’t they admit themselves for observation in a mental hospital?
[And remember, this is Wilkie’s policy objective. So really it is up to him to convince convince at least two out of Oakeshot, Windsor, Katter or Crook to support it.]
If I were wilkie I’d be targetting Crook and a couple of moderate WA Liberals like Washer and Moylan.
As a GP Washer may be able to be appealled to on public health benefits of curbing pokie addiction.
The Daily Telegrap runs a story with a headline that Labor MPs are rallying behind Gillard.
Apart from Wayne Swan, the entire “exclusive by Simon Benson” story is a rehas of this morning’s discredited “War Game Shadow Cabinet Meeting” story.
This is also STILL in:
[The AFL yesterday announced it would team up with the NRL to fight the reforms in a campaign to be broadcast during grand final week, claiming it was a “tax against footy”.]
“Yesterday”, “it announced”…. absolutely nothing, but the DT still runs it as if it’s an established, concrete fact.
If we needed any more proof that News is out of control, this is it. They are simply making up stories, and persisting with them, even though they have been comprehensively denied and proven wrong.
The new definition of “fact”:
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@SpaceKidette Kiddo, all you need is one #MSMhack says it then being “reported” by 2 other #MSMhacks then it is TRUE #auspol
1 minute ago
SO
The number and extent of the lying about the pokies reforms is rather spectacular. No shame at all. They say whatever comes to their minds. Just make it up and spew it out. The MSM has mostly let this crap flow without calling the perps out.
I think the Government will probably do a deal which will subsidise smaller regional clubs – a trade-off to pick up Mr Oakeshott, Mr Windsor and perhaps Mr Katter. Not sure about the bigger clubs, though.
jackol
[Blackmail relies on threats. A threat is of no use whatsoever unless you are prepared to carry it out (or at least your victim believes you are prepared to carry it out).]
I had assumed this was Gillard/Bowen’s stance over the Malaysia threat – and that was why they refused to consider “Plan B”. Always seemed silly to me that Abbott and the mdia kept asking for B.
confessions
[If I were wilkie I’d be targetting Crook and a couple of moderate WA Liberals like Washer and Moylan.As a GP Washer may be able to be appealled to on public health benefits of curbing pokie addiction.]
Added to that there are no pokies in W.A. outside the clapped out ones at the casino. This means that they will see the weeping clubs and tales of how life as we know it can only exist with pokies for the crap it is.
ru
[What do you mean by detained? Admission to a psychiatric ward by definition means detention. You cannot leave without permission.
It may just be a question of asking, signing a book or getting a doctor to allow it. All people in a psych ward are detained.
This is why States have mental health legislation.]
This is what happens in SA, and I assume other states.
Most patients admitted to a psych ward are voluntary patients, ie they can leave just like any other patient in the hospital.
The patients who are detained are under a treatment order and cannot leave. They have to meet strict criteria, esp having a mental health problem which makes them a danger to their or other lives.
Big public hospitals will often have voluntary and involuntary patients on their psych ward.
The psych hospitals will have dedicated lock-up wards where detained patients are treated and stabilised; they will later be transferred to other wards in the psych hospital with other voluntary patients when they are no longer detained.
[What about if Europe implodes, the US disappears down the tubes, the China asset bubble pops and…]
BW, 2 out of 3 is aint bad. The Chinese’s asset bubble debt was reported to be $1.3T …. but wait …. it has $3.2T in foreign reserves .. the rest is history as they say.
BTW: The Europeans have been swooning all over the Chinese lately, i wonder why.
[The government should propose to give a rebate on machine conversions.]
They could count the cost as part of their “community benefit” contributions. For some, it would be tax deductible.
[If someone thinks they are mentally ill, why can’t they admit themselves for observation in a mental hospital?]
Because it requires a doctor to say you are mad. Then it requires a doctor to say you are mad enough to need treatment, then it needs a doctor to say you need to be hospitalised because you are mad enough.
Do you reckon you would be admitted to a cardiac ward cos you think you have a dodgy heart?
The Finnigans,
[Like Sen. X. I have never trusted Wilkie.]
I don’t trust Wilkie either. It wouldn’t surprise me if he made a deal with Abbott to withdraw support for Labor in return for the Coalition’s help to get the pokie bill through.
SO
[Are you sure? What if someone voluntarily admits themselves, can’t they then also choose to leave?
How do you voluntarily admit yourself? You cannot.]
You definitely cannot voluntarily admit yourself. The hospital-doc has to say you need to be admitted.
Jackol how about applauding the Govt for actually going along with him…
[The ALP agreed, during negotiations, to Wilkie’s conditions.
If Wilkie applies no pressure on the ALP, they will wimp out. We know this. ]
who says they will pull out of the agreement, how do you know? Doing a Miss Maiden?
janice2
But how could he trust Abbott to carry out his promise 😆
[The psych hospitals]
What friggin psych hospitals?
[Added to that there are no pokies in W.A. outside the clapped out ones at the casino. ]
Yes, it’s a non issue for WA MPs.
[janice2
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 6:37 pm | Permalink
The Finnigans,
Like Sen. X. I have never trusted Wilkie.
I don’t trust Wilkie either. It wouldn’t surprise me if he made a deal with Abbott to withdraw support for Labor in return for the Coalition’s help to get the pokie bill through.]
So Labor has to stick to the deal, oh how sad.