Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.

Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).

Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).

A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.

The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 13
1 2 3 … 13

  2. [You definitely cannot voluntarily admit yourself. The hospital-doc has to say you need to be admitted.]

    So returning to the mad woman and the HSU…

  3. I think the government may already be considering some form of compensation to clubs.

    If I am not mistaken the start date Wilkie has in mind is not until 2013/14? Plenty of time to get some cash set aside in the budget.

  4. fredn, finns, janice,

    Wilkie also said that both the PM and Macklin have totally bought into putting the policy in place. He has no doubt about their commitment to keeping their promise.

  5. More good news for the Church in SA. This is for those with strong stomachs only.

    [THE Catholic Church has again denied a cover-up of sex abuse at a school for disabled children in Adelaide, despite new material uncovered by an ABC investigation.

    The Four Corners program to air tonight said the church was given legal advice not to mention sex abuse charges when it sacked a bus driver at the St Ann’s Special School in 1991.

    The former principal of St Ann’s has also told the program that he received instructions to maintain confidentiality on the issue when Brian Perkins was dismissed.

    Perkins worked as a paid and later volunteer driver at the school from 1986 to 1991 and was charged with sex offences when police uncovered pornographic photos of children in his possession.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/catholic-church-denies-sex-cover-up-at-st-anns-special-school/story-e6frea83-1226147134035

  6. Thorn l m. If u checked ess,u would see nothing has changed for. Labor for the last 3 weeks on ess
    But but greens. Up. 2
    and your friend and mate AA,going down

    Did u read ess, before u posted. No of course not

  8. [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 6:42 pm | Permalink
    fredn, finns, janice,

    Wilkie also said that both the PM and Macklin have totally bought into putting the policy in place. He has no doubt about their commitment to keeping their promise.]

    That is how I see it. If the average Labor hack also saw it that way Wilkie’s comments would be seen as irrelavent to the actual game.

  9. [Because it requires a doctor to say you are mad. Then it requires a doctor to say you are mad enough to need treatment, then it needs a doctor to say you need to be hospitalised because you are mad enough.

    Do you reckon you would be admitted to a cardiac ward cos you think you have a dodgy heart?]
    Come on mate. If someone is hearing voices or whatever, then that would be taken seriously.

  10. [More good news for the Church in SA. This is for those with strong stomachs only.]

    Diog
    Are you proud to be a South Australian just like me?

  12. [Wilkie also said that both the PM and Macklin have totally bought into putting the policy in place. He has no doubt about their commitment to keeping their promise.]

    Kiddo, if so, why speculate about making Abbott the PM then? He tried to blackmail the PM

  13. ru

    [The psych hospitals

    What friggin psych hospitals?
    ]

    SA has a dedicated psych hospital (Glenside). Used to have another (Hillcrest).

    Qld has The Park.

  14. [@laurieoakes will be talking on the future of the media at the @702 #OlleLecture]

    You’d think they’d actually ask someone who represents the future of the media to give that lecture.

  15. From chatting to mr Wilkes staff I would say he his very committed to this, he also would realize one would presume that libs would not t go down this path

    But not word from a,a, either way, he cannot call this a tax, so saying nothing

    As far as I know

  17. [Thorn l m. If u checked ess,u would see nothing has changed for. Labor for the last 3 weeks on ess]

    my say, dont waste your time reasoning with Evan2GB. He has been brainwashed by 2GB

  18. [mrumens Marian Rumens
    MatthiasCorman (Cap.Hill) said there was a better scheme to counteract problem gambling.Like all Lib policies there were no details.#libfail]

    Why are they never asked for these details, or pressed on their assertions?

  19. Lizzie,
    [But how could he trust Abbott to carry out his promise]
    The question is whether he would be silly enough to trust Abbott, or wise enough to have the promise signed and witnessed with all the t’s crossed and the i’s dotted.
    fredn,
    [So Labor has to stick to the deal, oh how sad.]
    I do not think for one minute that Labor would not stick to the deal. However, Wilkie appears prepared to punish Labor unless the PM can wave her magic wand and get the required votes to get it passed.

  20. Jackol how about applauding the Govt for actually going along with him…

    Don’t get me wrong – if Julia Gillard and Jenny Macklin can pull this off and get it through I will have nothing but admiration for them. At the moment I’m not sure whether it will get up or not.

    Ultimately, poker machine reform is not high up the ALP’s list of things to do, and for them at the moment it is a more than slightly unwelcome distraction from ETS, MRRT, NBN, FOFA, etc.

    who says they will pull out of the agreement, how do you know? Doing a Miss Maiden?

    It is not a binary yes/no issue. Politics never is. I’m sure that many in the ALP would like to be able to negotiate between the clubs and Wilkie and reach some compromise – it’s the natural instinct for politicians.

    In the minds of the ALP a compromise political solution wouldn’t be violating Wilkie’s agreement.

    Fundamentally though, compromise is not possible for Wilkie, and it’s why he’s so resolute.

    The situation with Wilkie can go sour through no fault of Julia Gillard or the ALP. He has said that they can bust their guts and put perfect legislation up, but if it fails to pass he walks away. That’s a bit extreme, and I’d be surprised if in the event that the ALP does their best but it fails to get the numbers in the House of Reps if Wilkie does carry out his threat.

  21. [fredn…That is how I see it. If the average Labor hack also saw it that way Wilkie’s comments would be seen as irrelavent to the actual game. ]

    Pray tell just what is ‘an average Labor hack” -fredricko?

  22. I think that Question time should have a second part added to it where the Opposition Leader and Shadow Cabinet are questioned. Provide them with a bit of scrutiny.

  24. SO

    [Come on mate. If someone is hearing voices or whatever, then that would be taken seriously.]

    Of course that would be taken seriously. But if you walk into a hospital saying that, you are not automatically admitted.

  25. Can’t remember who, but some commentator made the point that it was silly for ALP to always talk about Abbott. What got me thinking is that because we are dished up with the same anti govt drivel every day maybe some of it sticks even though you don’t want it to. What if this is a deliberate tactic by govt? Even us who support govt here on PB seem to despair that at every turn JG is being out manouvred. What if there was a parallel universe–keep Abbott in the job, let the polls run low for now but get all the measures in place. Would the govt be doing some focus polling and be adopting tactics drawn from that polling?. I’d like to know how firm Abbotts support is in polling. Sure the critics of this argument will say you don’t deliberately do things to go down in the polls.But I say obviously look at the heights of Rudd and to use racing metaphor Melbourne cup is not run in April. Your form in April has no bearing on how well prepared you are for the big one in November

  28. [Kiddo, if so, why speculate about making Abbott the PM then? He tried to blackmail the PM]
    I don’t suppose it is possible that Wilkie’s blackmail is directed at Windsor and Oakshott? Have they indicated whether they support the Pokie Policy?

  29. You are worrying me, Bludgers. Many of you are starting to get nervous and skittish because the media wants you to be. This legislation will go through and if it fails, I will bet that Wilkie will not back a lib govt. It puts his own position, and his ability to wield any kind of influence.

  33. [Of course that would be taken seriously. But if you walk into a hospital saying that, you are not automatically admitted.]
    But if you were then seen to and admitted would that count as a voluntary admission?

  34. The pokies will be bigger than the carbon tax for Labor for one simple reason, the timing – i.e. carbon tax will be in by 1 July with compensation in place by May or so and Abbott being kicked in the guts about overplaying the impacts by September 2012 or so.

    With the pokies – first deadline is getting the laws through by May 2012 or Wilkie will ….. (do something) but even if they do get them through they won’t be in place until 2014 for the bigger clubs. As a result, the scare campaign will be alive and well next election – that’s not good at all.

    Labor needs a trial up and running ASAP – but it has to be a whole town / rural council area / state at once to really test it. This is a mess

    p.s. i do support the move

  35. [2 years is a very long time in politics.]

    zoidlord, the other set of beautiful numbers that Abbott is terrified about: 2 years, 104 weeks, 730 days, 17520 hours, 1,051,200 minutes and 63,072,000 secs

  37. [I think that Question time should have a second part added to it where the Opposition Leader and Shadow Cabinet are questioned. Provide them with a bit of scrutiny.]

    Next year it is called in media land. 🙁

  40. If Gillard can get the pokies reform in i will give her heaps of credit. Gillard really does not like those that like to have drink, have a smoke and a slap on the pokies.

  42. [But if you were then seen to and admitted would that count as a voluntary admission?]

    No. Because you are admitted under the Mental Health Act.

  43. janice2,

    For what its worth, my read is that, as a political rookie, Wilkie overreached to make a point. The media have never let him forget it.

  44. [Many of you are starting to get nervous and skittish because the media wants you to be.]

    Dont forget Kev, he wants you to get nervous as well 🙂

  45. rummel,
    [Gillard really does not like those that like to have drink, have a smoke and a slap on the pokies.]
    On what do you base that statement?

  46. With the Greens up 2%, others down 1% and coalition and labor steady obviously a bit of rounding happening here ( total is 101% ).

    Any thoughts on where the rest of the approx 2% for the greens is from ? A little bit from others and some from labor and coalition or mostly from labor and coalition as a reaction to AS debate ?

    I know it is all within MOE etc. but just interested. As Essential is two week average perhaps it may show up next week.

  47. $36,200 to tie the knot. Rama rama.

    For one of my nieces it is moot which debt she will escape first: HECs or her wedding debt. If either. If ever.

    OTOH three-quarters of my offsprings have an entirely different plan. Don’t wed.

  48. [Wilkie overreached to make a point. The media have never let him forget it.]

    Kiddo, just like Sen. X with his parl. privilege accusation. Note how he is furiously trying to say solly while not saying it.

    Wilkie really should stop: Me Tarzan, You Julia routine – he should just leave that to Abbott

  49. [Gillard really does not like those that like to have drink, have a smoke and a slap on the pokies. ]

    rummie you really should seek assistance!!

  50. [Wilkie overreached to make a point. The media have never let him forget it.]

    Kiddo, just like Sen. X with his parl. privilege accusation. Note how he is furiously trying to say solly while not saying it.

    Wilkie really should stop: Me Tarzan, You Julia routine – he should just leave that to Abbott

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 13
1 2 3 … 13