Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.

Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).

Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).

A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.

The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [I simply cannot understand this.]

    Nor can I. I’ve been to at least 3 weddings this year, with two of them costing in excess of $40,000 all up, including the honeymoon.

    Madness.

  2. jackol @ 28:

    [Only option 1 gets his primary goal – he has to apply as much pressure as he can, and the ALP has to believe that he will pull the pin if he doesn’t get his way. The best way to make them believe it is to honestly be willing to put Tony Abbott in if he doesn’t get his way

    I don’t necessarily have a lot of time for single issue people in politics, but in this case his cause is just, and the time for action is now, so I’m willing to applaud Wilkie over this.]

    I agree with your analysis.

    Whatever one thinks of Mr. Wilkie personally & his motivation, if the “enormous” social harm resulting from poker-machine addiction is mitigated, he will achieve vastly more than most politicians do in their entire career.

  3. [Gillard really does not like those that like to have drink, have a smoke and a slap on the pokies. ]

    rummie you really should seek assistance!!

  4. BK:

    I’ve been to at least 3 weddings this year, and two of them cost over $40,000, with the most recent one costing nearly $100,000 according to the family of the groom.

    Madness.

  5. [Gillard really does not like those that like to have drink, have a smoke and a slap on the pokies.]

    Wait … There’s more …………. she doesnt like marriage, children, God

  6. janice2

    Grog tax, plan packaging, pokie reform.

    Not one reform to help joe blow blue collar worker in NSW, no wonder some back benchers a having cold shakes.

  7. [Wilkie really should stop: Me Tarzan, You Julia routine – he should just leave that to Abbott]

    How would voters in Dennison feel if their MP was directly responsible for an Abbott govt?

  8. [some scoffed when i said it was the same if not worst than chernobyl]

    gussie, you got it off lightly. me? a week in coventry

  9. [Australian couples do not hold back when it comes to their big day, forking out an average of more than $36,000 for their dream wedding.]

    What % of couples pay for their wedding? My wife’s parents paid for ours, refusing my parents offer to pay for alcohol at the recpeption.

  10. [I simply cannot understand this.

    Nor can I. I’ve been to at least 3 weddings this year, with two of them costing in excess of $40,000 all up, including the honeymoon.]
    confessions
    No 1 son’s wedding cost $10k all up. No 2’s less.
    But everyone who went to them had an absolute ball and still talk about them.
    I have been to some totally forgettable very high cost wedding.
    The cost id inversely proportional to the genuineness and compatibility of the bride and groom.

  11. Boerwar

    The wedding thing is really hard for me to understand. There’s been a complete circle through marriage-for-life, marriage-until divorce, live-together-OK, legal rights for live-togethers. I thought we were progressing up the social ladder to freedom, and suddenly its Big Weddings.
    Bluddy waste of money.

  12. rua
    On both occasions we shared costs with the brides’ parents.
    We remain good friends with both sets of parents and catch up with them regularly.

  13. [BK

    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

    I simply cannot understand this.

    Nor can I. I’ve been to at least 3 weddings this year, with two of them costing in excess of $40,000 all up, including the honeymoon.

    confessions
    No 1 son’s wedding cost $10k all up. No 2′s less.
    But everyone who went to them had an absolute ball and still talk about them.
    I have been to some totally forgettable very high cost wedding.
    The cost id inversely proportional to the genuineness and compatibility of the bride and groom.
    ]

    and wherte it is held.

    Once up on a time the local Town Hall and C aterer was quite acceptable for a Wedding Reception.
    now if it isn’t a 5 star Reception Centre in a Hotel well it ain’t good enough.

    See Ch 7’s Four Weddings for an example of how modern Weddings are conducted.

  14. jackol @ 28:

    [Only option 1 gets his primary goal – he has to apply as much pressure as he can, and the ALP has to believe that he will pull the pin if he doesn’t get his way. The best way to make them believe it is to honestly be willing to put Tony Abbott in if he doesn’t get his way

    I don’t necessarily have a lot of time for single issue people in politics, but in this case his cause is just, and the time for action is now, so I’m willing to applaud Wilkie over this.]

    I agree with your analysis.

    Whatever one thinks of Mr. Wilkie personally & his motivation, if the enormous social harm resulting from poker-machine addiction is mitigated, he will achieve vastly more than most politicians do in their tenure.

  15. Frank
    I have not seen the Aussie 4 weddings, but the US and UK shows are illustrative. Honestly I don’t reckon I’ve seen a single bride with whom I could imagine living with.
    Ughhhh!

  16. Gussie, i heard today from BBC radio that the price of high rise condos in Tokyo has tanked. Everyone is seeking low rise apartment no more than 5 storeys. More bursting of the Bubble

  17. SO

    [Of course that would be taken seriously. But if you walk into a hospital saying that, you are not automatically admitted.

    But if you were then seen to and admitted would that count as a voluntary admission?]

    It would most likely be voluntary. If you said you refused to be admitted and were considered to be a danger to yourself or others, then you would be detained under the Mental Health Act.

    ru

    [But if you were then seen to and admitted would that count as a voluntary admission?

    No. Because you are admitted under the Mental Health Act.]

    Incorrect for the above reason.

  18. confessions

    [I simply cannot understand this.

    Nor can I. I’ve been to at least 3 weddings this year, with two of them costing in excess of $40,000 all up, including the honeymoon.

    Madness.]

    I think more than a few local lasses have taken the reality tv Bridezilla’s as a desired reality.It is truly appaling stuff.A little sample here.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ8PL9f3g6s

  19. poroti,

    I agree. It is one show that should be punted and any woman that thinks that she can behave the way they do, just because they are getting married, needs a swift kick up the proverbial.

  20. Gussie, Andrea Bocelli and Sarah Brightman are doing a re-recording of Time to Say Goodbye, except this time it’s going to be called Time To Say Sayonara

  21. [Incorrect for the above reason.]

    No you only get admitted to a ward for the mad under the mental health act. It is not the holiday inn, places are limited, mad yep, bad no.

  22. [The cost id inversely proportional to the genuineness and compatibility of the bride and groom.]

    Yes. I’m thinking of the last wedding I went to which was very lavish, but a joke in many respects. The groom was on his 3rd (or 4th?) wedding to an appalling woman half his age with whom he appeared to have no real connection to. And there’s his son set to live out his father’s life with an equally appalling wife whom he also appeared to have no connection to either.

    But the champers was French, and the food was excellent, and the venue was superb.

  23. A couple of years ago we were staying at a boutique chinese-owned hotel in Malacca. He was a serious collector of artefacts chinese and the hotel was used to exhibit and integrate some of the collections. Great spot. Anyway, we were there for a week and got to be friendly with the owners. One night this was elevated into a marathon whisky drinking session which ended in a satay restaurant in the wee hours, along with an invitation for us to attend his daughter’s wedding the following week. We would have loved to have gone but unfortunately our travel plans were set in concrete. Just as well. I learned later that this chap owned various Malaysian-wide distribution concessions for things like John Deere tractors, was fabulously wealthy, and that many of the guests would simply drop a credit card into the gift sheet.

  24. ru

    [No you only get admitted to a ward for the mad under the mental health act. It is not the holiday inn, places are limited, mad yep, bad no.]

    That is certainly not the case in SA. Most patients are not admitted under the Mental Health Act. They are admitted just like any other patient with a medical problem.

  25. []No you only get admitted to a ward for the mad under the mental health act. It is not the holiday inn, places are limited, mad yep, bad no.]
    But if I went to a mental health hospital and told them I kept on hearing the voice of Ruawake making erroneous claims about the health effects of Aspartame, surely I would be admitted?

  26. [But if I went to a mental health hospital and told them I kept on hearing the voice of Ruawake making erroneous claims about the health effects of Aspartame, surely I would be admitted?]

    No.

  27. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Hmmm, so it’s OK then, i dont verbal you, i simply reflect what you said according to head of Club Aust #auspol
    now

  28. ShowsOn @ 33

    How do you voluntarily admit yourself? You cannot.

    Why not?

    If someone thinks they are mentally ill, why can?t they admit themselves for observation in a mental hospital?

    Neither of you appears to have a clue or it is totally different in states other than Victoria (unlikely).

    Admission in Victoria is via Accident and Emergency and patients seldom get any further because of lack of beds in the Psych Department.
    Also, in Victoria there is no such thing as a Voluntary Patient under the Mental Health Act. They were abolished under the corrupt evil Kennett Government.

    A patient has to be very sick before they can get into a public Mental Health facility and it is only the public sector that can hold involuntary patients.

    If you can afford it or have health insurance then you can be admitted to a private psych hospital as a patient. But you have no status under the Mental Health Act.

    This is a truly bizarre system that makes little attempt to to treat patients before matters become serious.

  29. Finns

    As long as I get to be the hamster wrangler I will go along with your mad plan to rule our universe.

    BTW, is our speed of light the same as everyone else’s speed of light?

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