For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.
Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).
Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).
A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.
The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 39 (-3) L/NP 61 (+3) #auspol #qanda
]
confessions
[I’ve recounted my interpretation of SHY’s duplicity. You disagree yet can’t prove it, so you decide to bait instead.]
You make a serious claim:
[In a Sky News panel in the election campaign last year, SHY flat out lied about the Greens policy on AS]
Just imagine if I had claimed without corroboration, “In a Sky News panel in the election campaign last year, Gillard flat out lied about Labor’s policy on AS”
I make a reasonable request:
[I realise we differ about the need to provide sources or links to corroborate unsupported assertions but it would be appreciated if you could please provide one.
The record might indeed support your, as yet unsupported claim, but I prefer to hear her actual comments and the context in which they are given rather than uncritically taking your words on the matter at face value.]
Just imagine the Laborite hysteria if I had responded as you have and not provided a source for such a claim:
[I gave a running commentary of the interview on the night it occurred, and have referred to it many times since. Strange that you’ve never seen fit to question my interpretation before.]
and
[Victim? I’ve recounted my interpretation of SHY’s duplicity. You disagree yet can’t prove it, so you decide to bait instead. Just like you did yesterday when you threw a tanty at commenters ignoring your provocations on AS.
If you can’t debate like a grown up then perhaps the internet isn’t the place for you.]
I am comfortable for readers to consider who is the adult here.
PS. Predictably you throw in your interpretation of something that happened yesterday that is totally irrelevant.
The tanty wasn’t mine. I couldn’t have been calmer at the time. More dispassionate observers who had been following events at the time would have noticed that I ignored most of the ad hominem attacks. I was more than happy to just let those comments stand on their own.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 40 (-2) L/NP 60 (+2) #auspol #qanda
]
[Dammit! I agree with a Lib]
Its OK bemused, I’ll let you have another turn so you can get it right! 😉
Imacca,
The seats in question would be the seats in the HoR and Senate, rather than the chairs in the GG‘s reception room, if I may hazard an untrained opinion.
I think that rather than unhinging, these kooks were never hinged to start with.
George, got the movie on dvd. Have watched it… actually, I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve watched it.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-3) L/NP 53 (+3) #auspol #qanda
]
Leroy,
[France’s left-wing opposition dealt a heavy blow to the conservative government of French President Nicolas Sarkozy]
Excellent!
[Space Kidette
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:12 pm | Permalink
GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 40 (-2) L/NP 60 (+2) #auspol #qanda
]
Cashed up Bogans being conned by Barnett’s Canberra is Evil BS.
Janet A has achieved the impossible.
She is even more painful than on her last appearance.
[
GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly Federal Primary Votes: ALP 27 (-5) L/NP 48 (+3) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol #qanda
1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
[Cashed up Bogans being conned by Barnett’s Canberra is Evil BS.]
Just about every word of this post is wRONg Frank!
For a start the swing in WA is one of the smallest in the country. Explain that…
I did not see Victoria’s numbers posted
[GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 (-3) L/NP 51 (+3) #auspol #qanda]
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:17 pm | Permalink
Cashed up Bogans being conned by Barnett’s Canberra is Evil BS.
Just about every word of this post is wRONg Frank!
For a start the swing in WA is one of the smallest in the country. Explain that…
]
I live in WA – You Don’t.
Next……….
[I’ve had enough of QandA and now watching This Is England 86 on SBS.]
In 1981, I was the first Kid at my school to get a No 1 haircut
[Just imagine the Laborite hysteria if I had responded as you have and not provided a source for such a claim:]
I think you are mistaking me for someone who cares about such rubbish. As it stands both Greens and Liberal hacks here frequently make assertions about the PM/Labor, but I don’t respond because I don’t care what their interpretations are.
My interpretation of SHY’s interview during the campaign (and in her pressers since) is that she’s a whiny opportunist who relishes in using the misfortune of AS for her own political gain. IMO this makes her worse than Scott Morrison, who at least pretends no concern for AS, as he showed with his appalling funeral comments after the CI tragedy. I expect better from the Greens, but sadly we don’t see it.
And I stand by my comments about your conduct, which has been self-evident both tonight and yesterday morning. If you want to engage in genuine debate I’m here. But I’m not interested in entertaining the juvenile baiting and squealing that you’ve exhibited tonight. If you want to play that game, then find someone else to troll, as I’m simply not interested.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Lady Janet said problem gamblers know they got a problem. No, they dont, that is the problem #qanda
now
So in summary, the swings from ALP over the last quarter are:
Qld 3
NSW 4
Vic 3
SA 3
WA 3
Nationally 3 (57:43 or a 7% swing from the last election)
Janet A is the archetypal nasty bit of work.
The Howard Government wasn’t interested in fighting mental illness it was more interested in stopping boats. Abbott and most of his front bench were ministers in that govt
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-3) L/NP 53 (+3) #auspol #qanda ]
Poss has tweeted earlier that the Newspoll quarterlies showed a not very pretty picture for the govt.
Surely we’ve reached bottom!!
When Obama was elected President, I thought, “You beauty! America has turned the corner on racial prejudice.” Subsequent events and attitudes have shown that to be a premature rejoicing. It’s such a conservative country, they have trouble coming to grips with a coloured man in the White house. I doubt they’re ready for a female President either. Michelle Bachmann should be making other plans right about now, if she isn’t already. Australia is almost as conservative: we’re not ready for a female leader either. Just as I doubt we’d accept a coloured PM. Too socially-retarded out there in conservative Middle Bogansville, in my judgemental opinion.
[I live in WA – You Don’t.
Next……….]
..and the data shows that Barnett is the LEAST effective Premier in generating a swing from the ALP (assuming as you do that the Premier of the state is responsible for the swing in that state)
Odd poll time lol.
same old, same old.
[Michelle Bachmann should be making other plans right about now, if she isn’t already. ]
Yes she should, but not because she is a woman, because she is a fruit loop.
Why do some of you have to assume that a bad female pollie must be the victim of sexism rather than just a bad pollie?
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Helen Coonan, China has decoupled itself from USA and Europe #qanda
13 seconds ago
GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-3) L/NP 53 (+3) #auspol #qanda
So big deal, when’s the next SA election?…geez the panic merchants cant wait to go into overdrive.
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:23 pm | Permalink
I live in WA – You Don’t.
Next……….
..and the data shows that Barnett is the LEAST effective Premier in generating a swing from the ALP (assuming as you do that the Premier of the state is responsible for the swing in that state)
]
Wrong…..
All Barnett has to say is that Canberra is Evil and all his problems go away and the Bogans are happy.
Next……
confessions,
I will let your last response stand on its own.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
You are kidding me, Helen Coonan: Riots in the Street fuggin idiotic fib #qanda
now
[So in summary, the swings from ALP over the last quarter are:
Qld 3
NSW 4
Vic 3
SA 3
WA 3]
It certainly is bad. Can the Labor vote recover from here? Time will tell.
[david
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Quarterly SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-3) L/NP 53 (+3) #auspol #qanda
So big deal, when’s the next SA election?…geez the panic merchants cant wait to go into overdrive.
]
same with the WA State which will be held BFORE a 2013 Federal Election.
[Why do some of you have to assume that a bad female pollie must be the victim of sexism rather than just a bad pollie?]
So you are saying bad polls = bad politician. Interesting.
[Wrong…..]
Frank:
Every state is 3% swing or higher except WA.
WA has the lowest swing.
Correct not wrong.
You love to repeat your theories about WA but the facts don’t support your theories.
(translation: get over Barnett)
[432
confessions
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
So in summary, the swings from ALP over the last quarter are:
Qld 3
NSW 4
Vic 3
SA 3
WA 3
It certainly is bad. Can the Labor vote recover from here? Time will tell.
]
Two Years Fess, Two Years.
Remember Rudd’s 60-40’s – they never lasted.
fess,
Maybe this is not the bottom yet. 🙁 This amount of change is seriously uncomfortable for people. i do not expect anything much different this year.
[Every state is 3% swing or higher except WA.]
Perhaps WA has corrected from the last election?
[435
Mod Lib
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:28 pm | Permalink
Wrong…..
Frank:
Every state is 3% swing or higher except WA.
WA has the lowest swing.
Correct not wrong.
You love to repeat your theories about WA but the facts don’t support your theories.
(translation: get over Barnett)
]
rubbish and YOU kn ow it.
You don’t live in WA I Do.
Think about it.
Next……
Ms Coonan doing a vintage Do-nothing denialist the carbon tax will be the death of us all and their will be riots on the streets.
Michelle Bachmann mod lib, is a screw loose, even you know that,there is no way in the tea parties planning she was going to be the anointed one, the same as Palin isn’t. Has nothing to do with her being or not being a woman, its about stupidity and she has copious amounts of it. As does Palin. Why does it have to be spelt out? Look and see and listen, if you want to be in the discussion.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/opinion_poll_volatility/
[It certainly is bad. Can the Labor vote recover from here? Time will tell.]
Confessions:
Have a look at Mumble’s Newspoll trend- amazing graph since the CPRS was dumped in early 2010…
Nothing like it in the history of Newspoll
[Every state is 3% swing or higher except WA.]
Two of those states are in a post State Election Honeymoon period.
[In 1981, I was the first Kid at my school to get a No 1 haircut]
In 1981 I had hair half way down my back.
[Let’s be clear, the PM is merely another elected member of parliament, chosen by his peers, as their leader for the time being.
Peer groups can normally pull one the group into line unless they are a bunch of sooks who are prepared to be bullied. Somehow I can’t see the members of parliament I know as being like that.
Face facts, it was all run by factional hacks and a few whose ambition outstripped their abilities. ]
I like how you blame Rudd’s colleagues for Rudd’s behaviour behind the scenes. (I’m assuming that if people did try to get him in line they’d just have gotten more rages against them) I guess it also raises the question of why he was like this in Queensland parliament as well as when Opposition Leader and then Prime Minister. Were the people in Queensland also weak-willed?
Well, those Newspoll quarterly figures were shockers; shockers but not suprisers.
Summary
Overall 43-57 (Primary 27-48-13)
WA 40-60
SA 47-53
Qld 39-61
Vic 49-51
NSW 41-59
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@Lynestel @geeksrulz i am feeling beyond blue about the #pokies #auspol
15 seconds ago
[So you are saying bad polls = bad politician. Interesting.]
No, but equally being a female doesn’t preclude you from being a bad pollie.
dan
did you try waxing?
😉