Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.

Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).

Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).

A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.

The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. confessions,

    [Strange that you’ve never seen fit to question my interpretation before. ]
    Given that you are here almost 24/7, I realise that you might see it as unbelievable that not everyone else is.

    Actually, in the past I have called you on some of your interpretations.

    Experience of reading your posts for years has unfortunately taught me to expect this somewhat testy response of yours to a reasonable request for a source.

    At least you didn’t fall back on your “Google is your friend” evasion.

  5. Frank
    I was in Melbourne yesterday and walked past a “Little Cupcakes Bakery”. I couldn’t help but wonder if I had discovered the secret of Glen’s occupation. 👿

  6. bemused:

    I am opposed to leadership changes for the sake of leadership change or in response to polls. I was opposed to Rudd Removal for the same reason, until it became apparent exactly why Rudd was Removed.

    By all accounts, Gillard has a good working relationship with the Caucus and backbenchers, and is getting on with governing. There are faults in communication and selling the package, but the substantive work is being done. The grounds for leadership change therefore do not exist.

    As a Labor voter I am happy. Ecstatic even, if Labor can achieve carbon pricing, a mining tax and the beginnings of a regional framework for AS. This is a reforming govt, and we should be celebrating its achievements when they start coming through.

  7. [My reading is they want a leadership change now to a) end, or seriously curtail carbon pricing (like what happened with the RSPT on Rudd Removal), and b) bring on an early election. If Labor went to Rudd now Abbott would simply resurrect his nonsense about voters deciding on the PM, not the Caucus etc etc.

    Best thing the govt can do is ignore the Liberals and their media shills and get on with their legislative agenda. It’s huge, and demands deserved attention.]

    I recall a comment from Victoria earlier today in the previous thread – it’s OK if Labor loses next time, provided that Gillard has got all of the reforms put in place and Abbott can’t dismantle them.
    This is another case of putting ideology before pragmatism – in other words, it’s fine to destroy Labor in an electoral sense for a generation and it will have been worth it, because we got a carbon tax up & running or we established compulsory pre-committment technology for poker machines – I wonder if 20 or 30 Labor MPs in marginal seats will be quite as sanguine as some of the Poll Bludger commentariat after 2013?

  9. @Leroy/288,

    “Australians should exercise a high degree caution within the Precautionary Zone between 30km and 80 km around the Fukushima site and follow the advice of the local government authorities.”

    There is plenty of people (not necessarily Australians) still living in Japan.

    But they are not living anywhere near Fukushima (Nagoya, etc)

  10. [This is another case of putting ideology before pragmatism – in other words, it’s fine to destroy Labor in an electoral sense for a generation and it will have been worth it, because we got a carbon tax up & running or we established compulsory pre-committment technology for poker machines – I wonder if 20 or 30 Labor MPs in marginal seats will be quite as sanguine as some of the Poll Bludger commentariat after 2013?]

    WTF are you taking about, Willis?

  11. Pegasus:

    If you do genuinely want to hear what SHY said from her own mouth then instead of attacking me, you’ll do your own research and prove me wrong.

  14. Finnigans,,
    Don’t you know the meaning of “almost”?

    Do u remember the word cloud that William created a while ago of PB posts at a point in time.

    “Confessions” was writ large and centre.

  16. I’ll say it again: some of you people are seriously deluded…….enjoy the Abbott victory in 2013, because that’s where you’re headed, and you people will be the first to be having major meltdowns on this blog. 🙂

  17. [This is another case of putting ideology before pragmatism]

    Actually you’ve got that wrong way about. It’s a case of putting pragmatism ahead of ideology.

    Labor can’t win with you people. They do the 24/7 news cycle obsession under Rudd and are accused of ignoring substantive policy. When they do substantive policy and eschew the 24/7 news cycle obsession, they get accused of being ideological.

  18. confessions @ 306

    I was opposed to Rudd Removal for the same reason, until it became apparent exactly why Rudd was Removed.

    Oh really?

    Rather strange those retrospective justifications. Are you prepared to believe that the whole of caucus and the whole ministry are such precious petals they could not stand up to one man? Doesn’t say much for them does it?

    By all accounts, Gillard has a good working relationship with the Caucus and backbenchers, and is getting on with governing. There are faults in communication and selling the package, but the substantive work is being done. The grounds for leadership change therefore do not exist.

    Certainly a viciously obstructive opposition and a hostile media. But some of the wounds are self inflicted. Real Julia, citizens assembly, cash for clunkers etc.

    But I agree wholeheartedly on the policy directions you identify.

  22. confessions,
    [If you do genuinely want to hear what SHY said from her own mouth then instead of attacking me, you’ll do your own research and prove me wrong.]
    Predictable….playing the victim.

    You could have just said “Google is your friend”. Suggest you create a macro to save you time when next you need to use it.

  23. TLM

    even if we took on board every word you said, I’m not at all sure what kind of response you want from us.

    If you want a blog filled with people saying “Ooohhh labor sucks’ I’d suggest there are plenty to chose from.

    Otherwise, what do you want to happen here? We could all convert to TLMism and it wouldn’t make a scrap of difference to what happens in 2013.

    So what’s your point?

  24. [bemused
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    Frank
    I was in Melbourne yesterday and walked past a “Little Cupcakes Bakery”. I couldn’t help but wonder if I had discovered the secret of Glen’s occupation. 👿 ]

    bemused that is the post of the day yu fekin bewdy 😆

  28. Evan all over the place

    So what is your gripe? Is it the policies? Or just the leadership?

    Do you want the policy agenda pulled?

    What is it Evan?

  35. [Oh really?]

    Yes really. From my recollection there were only three commenters openly pushing for a leadership change that night: Boerwar, evan/Thornleigh man, and Thomas Paine.

    The rest of us were horrified at what we were witnessing, and said as much.

  37. Being a Vet, I’ve never experienced the public health system.

    But, I was most impressed with it at the Gold Coast Hospital after accompanying my niece over four appointments.

    True, we were required to wait a rather long time before seeing an orthopedic surgeon, but overall, the experience was pleasant, not to mention the possible diagnosis of Ewing’s Sarcoma being ruled out following a bone scan, which preceded an xray, an MRI & and a Cat Scan.

    From my experience, to suggest Queensland Health is in a state crisis, as suggested by Courier Mail, is somewhat exaggerated.

  38. [I’ll say it again]

    Evan, I’m hoping so. Again and again and again.

    If it pans out the way you say, you can come back here with one of those giant finger gloves you buy at the baseball and yell “I told you so” at the top of your larynx.

    Or, if it doesn’t, you can quietly disappear and melt into a ball of embarrassment.

    Either way, it’s a win-win, no?

  43. [This is another case of putting ideology before pragmatism – in other words, it’s fine to destroy Labor in an electoral sense for a generation and it will have been worth it]

    It only took 7 years between the dismissal and the election of the Hawke/Keating Government.
    There goes another of your little “theories” Evan-Liberal-Man, try learning some history next time.

  44. [Predictable….playing the victim.]

    Victim? I’ve recounted my interpretation of SHY’s duplicity. You disagree yet can’t prove it, so you decide to bait instead. Just like you did yesterday when you threw a tanty at commenters ignoring your provocations on AS.

    If you can’t debate like a grown up then perhaps the internet isn’t the place for you.

  45. [gusface
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    leroy

    bilb’s dirk dirked me

    🙁 ]

    let it pass gus, he sits on a high horse, which is not as high as he suspects

  48. [If you can’t debate like a grown up then perhaps the internet isn’t the place for you.]

    fess, stop “reflecting” on horsey

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