For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.
Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).
Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).
A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.
The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.
Finns @ 229
Was that inspired by “The Ballad of Pretty Boy Floyd” by Woody Guthrie?
Boerwar @ 205:
[charlton
I assume you intended to say that Mr Harradine was a state-based pork barreller with no national implications.
He actual went beyond the national stage.
Inter alia, Mr Harradine intervened with Mr Howard to ensure that our foreign aid excluded family planning and birth control.]
There’s no doubt that his conservative views on social issues did have an impact nationally.
Pork-barrelling for Tasmania, though, which was I arguing, was his primary agenda; but I do concede both issues politically are inextricably linked.
[Finn’s expertise was in the Japanese corporate approach to the truth.]
BW, in the immortal words of Jacko: “They cant handle the TRUTH!!!!!!!!!!!”
bemused: yes
I like his work usually, but I think Mungo’s article is based on a false assumption. Rather than:
[Let’s be absolutely clear about why the Opposition is currently obsessed with the prospect of a Kevin Rudd comeback: they – and especially Tony Abbott – are seriously scared that it might happen. ]
it should be:
[Let’s be absolutely clear about why the Opposition is currently obsessed with the prospect of a Kevin Rudd comeback: they – and especially Tony Abbott – seriously want it to happen. ]
rishane @ 254
The way I read it, Mungo is saying the Libs want it now rather than later so they have time to counter it.
I get the feeling that tonight’s 4Corners will cause the same outrage the one on cattle slaughtering did.
252: syntax problematic.
bemused
[As far as I know only Thomas Embling which is for forensic patients.
]
I’m amazed. As I said, we had two, Glenside and Hillcrest. The Govt (many years back) closed Hillcrest except for James Nash House which housed/jailed the forensic patients.
[I get the feeling that tonight’s 4Corners will cause the same outrage the one on cattle slaughtering did.]
Dan, should we pre-emptively blame Labor 😉
P
I did see your post @ 199.
Where we differ, I suspect, is about the power of ‘plain talking’. Plain talking does not, IMHO, affect the values prism.
b @ 220
I was not talking about Victoria and I am sorry to hear that they don’t have a crisis team on call.
I don’t know but I suppose the load is simply too heavy?
[Where we differ, I suspect, is about the power of ‘plain talking’. Plain talking does not, IMHO, affect the values prism.]
BW, i thought horsey only laughs
Dan
Has something surprisingly bad come out in the 4C story?
http://english.aljazeera.net/video/asia-pacific/2011/09/201191845015428149.html
[Experts say Fukushima ‘worse’ than Chernobyl
Experts estimate the radiation leaked from Fukushima nuclear plant will exceed that of Chernobyl.
Last Modified: 18 Sep 2011 07:41
At least one billion becquerels of radiation continue to leak from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant each day even though it is now more than five months after the March earthquake and tsunami that damaged the facility.
Experts say that the total radiation leaked will eventually exceed the amounts released from the Chernobyl disaster that the Ukraine in April 1986. This amount would make Fukushima the worst nuclear disaster in history.
Al Jazeera correspondent Steve Chao reports from Tokyo.]
Link is to a video (3.08 minutes), worth a look.
bemused – we will see. Crystal ball reading is a high risk bet. But for now my eye is on the main game. Policy, Parliament and legislation.
An excellent opportunity to remove the tax exemptions enjoyed by the religion industry is presenting itself.
It is bad watching and listening to the parents. Poor bastards.
[Experts say Fukushima ‘worse’ than Chernobyl
Experts estimate the radiation leaked from Fukushima nuclear plant will exceed that of Chernobyl.]
PM Kan at one time was thinking of evacuating 10m of Tokyo residents just like in some of the Godzilla movies
Diogenes @ 258
Why? All part of the fad of de-instutionalisation which politicians seized upon to save money.
Of course there was supposed to be a movement of funds to provide for treatment in the community but it did not happen to the extent required.
All well documented over the years.
BTW, I asked in the previous thread: Why do you medicos say “on the ward” when normal people would say “in the ward”?
[rishane @ 254
The way I read it, Mungo is saying the Libs want it now rather than later so they have time to counter it. ]
I think they want it now so the minority government can fall apart and policies like the carbon price can be delayed/canceled, simple as that. As nice as it’d be to think they’re scared because of Rudd’s popularity, I think their real fear is that Gillard gets the ALP policy agenda through. Of course, they’re not all idiots (some of them are) so they’re not going to admit it out loud.
[Care to tell us what your expert opinion is?]
I have never presumed to have one.
My Mum is watching the Brownlow count. It is like watching a stalagmite and stalactite connect.
Thank the Bilbo for PB.
Puff
i am watching the Brownlow count as well.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-26/other-countries-interested-in-plain-packaging-laws/2945012
[Roxon says plain packaging has global acclaim
PM
Peter Lloyd
Posted September 26, 2011 20:18:06
Health Minister Nicola Roxon has returned from the United Nations, where she says ministers from around the world applauded the Federal Government’s tobacco plain-packaging legislation.]
Fair length article, plus audio from the PM program.
Boerwar @ 261
We are supposed to but they are under resourced and would prefer to attend to routine calls ahead of a crisis which they are quite happy to leave to the police.
Could be why Victoria leads the way in shooting the mentally ill.
120grains of copper jacketed lead is not a good prescription for any illness. Particularly repeated doses.
vic
You can follow the Brownlow count here. It’s nowhere near as painful as the televised event.
http://www.afl.com.au/finals/finalsevents/brownlowmedal/brownlow/tabid/18408/default.aspx
bemused
[BTW, I asked in the previous thread: Why do you medicos say “on the ward” when normal people would say “in the ward”?]
Never thought about it before. Can’t think of a good reason.
[The way I read it, Mungo is saying the Libs want it now rather than later so they have time to counter it. ]
My reading is they want a leadership change now to a) end, or seriously curtail carbon pricing (like what happened with the RSPT on Rudd Removal), and b) bring on an early election. If Labor went to Rudd now Abbott would simply resurrect his nonsense about voters deciding on the PM, not the Caucus etc etc.
Best thing the govt can do is ignore the Liberals and their media shills and get on with their legislative agenda. It’s huge, and demands deserved attention.
confessions
[In a Sky News panel in the election campaign last year, SHY flat out lied about the Greens policy on AS.]
I realise we differ about the need to provide sources or links to corroborate unsupported assertions but it would be appreciated if you could please provide one.
The record might indeed support your, as yet unsupported claim, but I prefer to hear her actual comments and the context in which they are given rather than uncritically taking your words on the matter at face value.
Gweneth @ 265
Agreed!
The reform agenda must continue and, who knows, anything could happen and any leadership rumblings quickly dissipate.
[I have never presumed to have one.]
Neither have others. But we certainly read what the experts have to say. Some of the most recent reports are indicating very high levels of caesium radiation in soil tests around Tokyo, nearly twice the Chernobyl dead zone evacuation limit.
BK
I dont mind watching the count. Sometimes we need to silly distractions in life
Dinner calls
Ciao
rishane @ 270
Agree.
Puff. Yes, the ladies look so bored, would be to its very very boring,,
That’s why the ipad is good, or a lap top are u in the same room as mum,my oh thinks exciting
Watching two files crawl. Up the wall be more exciting for me,
But doing some baby k sitting for ou new little labor boy. Arrives in. Nov
Why. Dont the boys just have boys night out or they could post the results on the afl web site
bemused – just missed your post – we are in agreement.
Gweneth
Buon apetito!
Fortunately, I will not be travelling to Japan, probably ever.
http://www.smartraveller.gov.au/zw-cgi/view/travelbulletins/information_on_radiation_for_australians_in_japan
thanks bilbo for the dagger in the ribs
\
hope it made you feel good
🙁
Finnigans,
Though I did not request it at the time, have you apologised to me for your false attribution of a comment by zoomster to me and your ad hominem response to it?
If so, I have missed it and would appreciate you linking to it. If not, I can only conclude that your verballing and deception was deliberate.
gussie, dont go there. bilbo is a sensitive boy
[288
Leroy
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 9:12 pm | Permalink
Fortunately, I will not be travelling to Japan, probably ever.
http://www.smartraveller.gov.au/zw-cgi/view/travelbulletins/information_on_radiation_for_australians_in_japan
]
But Glen is 🙂
[but I prefer to hear her actual comments ]
I gave a running commentary of the interview on the night it occurred, and have referred to it many times since. Strange that you’ve never seen fit to question my interpretation before.
In any case, Sky don’t usually keep online video records of old programs – Sky is on pay TV in case you weren’t aware.
If you want to watch that particular show I’d suggest you write to Sky News. SHY appeared in a panel with David Oldfied, some woman from the UNHCR and Bruce Baird. They were interviewed by David Speers.
shows
you aint no biggles or even an algie
George
The fact that this is all Labor’s fault can be taken for granted.
BK
What is being revealed is beyond my ability to put into words. I’m sorry.
But he does get up your Ginger.
confessions @ 278
I agree that any moves now would be just plain stupid as, at the very least, they would create turmoil and delay the reform agenda that is necessary for Labor to complete to launch it’s campaign for re-election.
Frankly, I don’t care who leads Labor at the next election provided they can communicate the message well. If Julia suddenly starts doing this, well and good. If she can’t, and that is the sole impediment to being competitive, then I would favour a change – to Rudd.
[have you apologised to me for your false attribution of a comment by zoomster to me and your ad hominem response to it?]
horsey, to repeat what head of Clubs Aust just said on #ABC730 in relation to AFL & The pokies, i am only reflecting what you didnt say
Dan
Mrs BK and I are just about to start watching it.
I’m willing to bet that there’s not a chance in hell that Wilkie will ever support Abbott.
He may make good on his threat to withhold his support for the Government (depending on how the failure of pokies legislation comes about) but doubt he’d support a no-confidence motion. He might abstrain however.
I don’t think it is worth worrying about – he seems pretty impressed with Gillard and Macklin for now. 🙂