For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.
Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).
Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).
A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.
The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.
Wasn’t a tweet posted here last nite from the AFL’s patrick keane stating that the AFL were not involved in any “anti” pokie pre-commitment campaign ?
The state of Australian “News”:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/6184944614/sizes/l/in/photostream/
[MickGCollins
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:18 pm | Permalink
Wasn’t a tweet posted here last nite from the AFL’s patrick keane stating that the AFL were not involved in any “anti” pokie pre-commitment campaign ?
]
Yep, from me amongst others and was subsequently ignored by the meeja.
Diogenes @ 161
As far as I know only Thomas Embling which is for forensic patients.
It was deemed that in the interests of de-stigmatisation and other bs that psych patients should be mainstreamed via A&E into wards that were part of a regular hospital.
You may detect that I am critical.
charlton
I assume you intended to say that Mr Harradine was a state-based pork barreller with no national implications.
He actual went beyond the national stage.
Inter alia, Mr Harradine intervened with Mr Howard to ensure that our foreign aid excluded family planning and birth control.
MickGCollins
Yes, not by me, but here it is…
[Patrick Keane
@AFL_PKeane Patrick Keane
For anyone in any doubt, the AFL is NOT starting a campaign this week around proposed pokie legislation.Any suggestion to that is incorrect.
25 Sep via Mobile Web]
[Straight-talking on the issue of pokies addiction would kill the clubs’ campaign dead.]
Straight-talking on the issue of asylum seekers would increase the likelihood of killing the political duopoly’s campaign for offshore processing.
[Mark Colvin
@Colvinius
Could the Chairman of BeyondBlue have a quiet word with the Hawthorn FC President about the links between depression and pokie addiction?]
BK
[Diog
Are you proud to be a South Australian just like me?]
I am very proud to be a South Australian. As somebody who is not a member of the church, I do not feel the need to wear its sins.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15055713
Lets see how this goes…
[26 September 2011 Last updated at 09:19 GMT
Eurozone rescue plan ’emerging’ as IMF and Greece talk
The outline of a large and ambitious eurozone rescue plan is taking shape, reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington suggest.
It is expected to involve a 50% write-down of Greece’s massive government debt, the BBC’s business editor Robert Peston says.
The plan also envisages an increase in the size of the eurozone bailout fund to 2 trillion euros (£1.7tn; $2.7tn).
European governments hope to have the plan in place in five to six weeks.]
More in the article.
Carey
Fair enough. It still makes me feel bilious though.
Frank, Leroy, thanks for that.
Wonder if Media Watch will highlight just how much the AFL have been misrepresented by CA and the MSM (Murdoch) ?
P
SHY has been straight talking and straight talking.
Still, according to today’s Essential, only around 11% support onshore processing, depending on the set of alternatives offered.
[Some restrictions, as distinct from total bans, are necessary for the greater public good, and the protection of innocent third parties.]
Hear, hear.
[The solution to pokies is to introduce a no deduction tax on pokies revenue with a 3 figure rate.]
And again, hear, hear.
does anyone know what this is about?
[Chris Ogilvie
@ChrisOgilvieSnr
@ABCBIGIDEAS The “Do we want a carbon tax” Debate using falsified and misrepresented scientific Data by the IPA, is now being investigated]
Boerwar
[Tim and Peter followed different trajectories. There is no knowing what would have happened to Tim had he gone into politics.]
Not too hard to understand.There are personalities that seem to be of the “true believer” type. Testament to this is seeing how often uber lefties become uber righties as in all the US neocons. Check out the past of a number of uber righties in Australia that were commie bastard Marxists in their youth. There seems to be a personality type that needs,desires to have “The Revelation” philosophy to follow. It does not matter what it is as long as they have “the faith”.Go Peter Costello. He discovered his fundamentalism with the HR Nichols Society
[The Origins of the Society
The H R Nicholls Society was established at a seminar which took place at the CWA Hostel in Toorak, Victoria, on the weekend of 19th February – 2nd March 1986. The Seminar was organised by four people, John Stone, then a financial and economic consultant, Peter Costello, Barrister at Law, Barrie Purvis, industrial advocate, and Ray Evans, an executive with WMC Ltd.]
http://www.hrnicholls.com.au/origins.php
Evening
bemused – if you are still here re your post @2277 previous thread – I like your posts too but I am a little frustrated at the leadership bs.
Good to see that the pokies have wiped that all off the headlines. This is a very interesting stoush indeed.
Labor ministerial heavies deny unrest stories and Rudd revival
http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-rolled-before-election-no-chance-says-minister-20110926-1ksi3.html
The article refers back to a Telegraph piece which hints at the Rummel option: dump Julia for Kev and go for an immediate election. Yeah, that’d do the trick quite nicely all right!
With the polls as they are, it makes far more sense to stay on course with the programs. Who cares if Rummel is right and we lose the furniture in two years? At least a lot of important national and Labor reforms will be in place.
The only tactic of opposition at present, apart from vested interest advertising, is to keep slapping polls at us in the hope that sufficient caucus members will get nervous enough to panic. But even for the nervous nellies, apart from Evan, the consequences of destabilising are worse than the present poll situation.
Leroy
The plan bit is easy. Getting each country to cough up the moolah another thing entirely. I think they are talking trillion plus, so the folks back home might say no, nie, non, etc…
Boerwar @ 193
You obviously are not in Victoria.
The Crisis Assessment & Treatment Teams (CAT Teams) in Victoria are commonly, and accurately, referred to as ‘Call Again Tomorrow Teams’ or ‘Can’t Attend Today Teams’.
More commonly, police are called and all too often they prescribe a dose of copper jacketed lead for the patient and proceed to administer.
b
Did u c my post @ 199?
[Straight-talking on the issue of asylum seekers would increase the likelihood of killing the political duopoly’s campaign for offshore processing.]
Here’s some straight talking.
The only solution to AS is a regional approach, overseen by the UNHCR, and one where Australia takes its fair share of refugees from the region.
Unfortunately, only Labor supports such a policy approach. It is up to the Greens and the coalition to come to the party on the only humane solution in town.
GD @218 I spoke too soon.
poroti
You have me confused. Are you trying to tell me that Tim would have made it five for the founding of the HR Nicholls Society?
Although I do agree.
Is the New Matilda the only reputable reporting of political events for you guys?
Does everyone hate the ALP?
[Good to see that the pokies have wiped that all off the headlines. This is a very interesting stoush indeed.]
And note that when the debate shifts to policy, Abbott goes missing.
Yes confessions. Indeed.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Some will rob you with a gun, some with a pen, but mostly with #pokies suckers #auspol
2 minutes ago
[fuku is getting chernobyly
some scoffed when i said it was the same if not worst than chernobyl
*looks at bilbo* ]
Gusface, I’m reasonably sure I didn’t scoff at anyone for saying any such thing. I may have scoffed at you for presuming to know what you were talking about, which you clearly didn’t then and clearly don’t now.
BTW Julia is on Jnr Masterchef Tonight 🙂
Evan will be pleased.
Just saw a promo for the Chasers. They are riding a giant Hamster!!!!
I told youse that hamsters are taking over the world and that the one who might be in Mr Ray Hadley’s thinking place is coordinating the takeover.
Boerwar
[poroti
You have me confused. Are you trying to tell me that Tim would have made it five for the founding of the HR Nicholls Society?]
No bloody way would Tim Costello have a bar off the HR Nicholls society for even a femtosecond.I was pointing out how there are people who have “true believer” personality. It does nae matter what the belief is as long as it salves their personality’s desire.
[SHY has been straight talking and straight talking.]
In a Sky News panel in the election campaign last year, SHY flat out lied about the Greens policy on AS. In response to a question about avoiding the loss of life at sea and miniminsing the risk to boat people, SHY said the Greens would fly AS from Indonesia, using the RAAF where possible rather than have them set off in boats. I checked the Greens policies at the time, and this was nowhere to be seen.
SHY has never mentioned that again. Unsurprisingly I might add.
Boerwar
Grog is helping the Chasers with their scripts. perhaps they have got some ideas from this site?!!
Ummmm, looks like Dio is right.
You do need a strong tummy for tonight’s Four Corners.
Boerwar
Real bad, huh?
[At the Senate inquiry today the ABC said that “New Inventors” was pulled because of falling ratings.]
I’m hopeful that they will bring back the Old Inventors. I felt that was a much better show than the New Inventors.
We didn’t need colour to make things interesting back in the day.
v
Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co patented hamsters only last week.
The Chasers are Royalty Toast.
BK
Yep.
Gweneth @ 217
I am going to disappoint you, but it isn’t all bs.
Nothing is going to happen now, but I would not be at all surprised by a leadership change before the 2013 election.
I recommend Mungo McCallums article which was linked to earlier:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2942600.html
Caucus is uneasy and it is not a mere handful in favour of a change at some stage.
[I may have scoffed at you for presuming to know what you were talking about, which you clearly didn’t then and clearly don’t now.]
William:
[Frigyes Reisch is one of the leading experts on nuclear safety in the world. He worked for 27 years at the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI. He has worked for the IAEA and with nuclear scientists on know how to judge nuclear incidents. Now he says – in an exclusive interview for Aftonbladet – the accident in Fukushima is as severe as Chernobyl. The release of radio activity is most likely in lethal doses.]
A direct quote from his interview:
[”The accident should be classified as the worst on the scale – Fukushima is as serious as Chernobyl]
Care to tell us what your expert opinion is?
[You do need a strong tummy for tonight’s Four Corners.]
I’m recording, and will watch on replay at a later date.
[Gusface, I’m reasonably sure I didn’t scoff at anyone for saying any such thing. I may have scoffed at you for presuming to know what you were talking about, which you clearly didn’t then and clearly don’t now.]
Squadron Leader Bowe
May I commend you for this perceptive post.
ShowsOn
(Wing Man #1)
Boerwar
i am just the messenger!
[Care to tell us what your expert opinion is?]
They are both category 7 events. But the fact the scale ends at 7 should tell you that events of different seriousness can all count as category 7.
g’s expertise was about the nuclear/engineering side of it.
Finn’s expertise was in the Japanese corporate approach to the truth.
These guys were righter faster than the mass of our MSM.
Can’t ask for better than that.
miffed/abbo – there’s good writing around in most sources, you just need to read in depth. Often it’s more the editorial slant, prominence given to aspects of stories etc, that put off people on this blog. Some stories are total beat ups, but you can pick those. The main problem is most people don’t have the time to go beyond headline s& summaries. AAP reports (carried in many papers and news sites) are the most reliable for the basic facts on any story.
BTW what happened to your personality change? Are you slowly sliding back to “abbo”?
[Care to tell us what your expert opinion is?]
“I iz a PhD Student – I iz Always Correct” 🙂
though in more words.
v
You are in the clear.