Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 58-42, although this stability is the result of a correction in the respondent-allocated preference flow after a worst-ever result for Labor last time. On other measures, Labor has in fact gone slightly backwards. Their primary vote is down half a point to 32 per cent with the Coalition up half a point to 48 per cent and the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 11 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party lead when preferences are distributed in accordance with the result of 2010 election has widened from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from combined sample of 1990.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,755 comments on “Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  2. Victoria

    You girls should inherit our golden point rule in case of a draw.

    Imagine if the Cats and the Pies are at a draw at full time. A golden goal (first team to kick a goal thereafter) or the very first team to score 6 points, wins Grand Final in unlimited extra time.

    It would be an explosive orgasmic finish 😈

  4. BB,

    Frankly, I doubt if Maiden or News give a damn.

    They’ve sold papers and set the agenda. Credibility is one of those esoteric concepts much enjoyed by the Internet Intelligentsia. But, means jack to the mug punters.

    They don’t do ‘shame” at News.

  5. [The Age ran with the AFL/NRL/Clubs Australia lie as its P 3 lead today. Accompanied by a Grattan opinion piece based on the lie. That’s how it all works these days.]

    alpalster – It was said yesterday Maiden started it off with articles in 3 or 4 Murdoch Sunday papers. She is the editor of the Sunday papers. She obviously didn’t check with the AFL and the rest of the mob followed like little chooks.

    Now, more than ever, old Joh’s voice rings in my ears ‘gotta feed the chooks’. I didn’t like his politics but he could put he knew how to handle the ‘chooks’.

  7. Centre,

    The AFL made a lazy $10mill by having a replay Grand Final last year. More orgasms all the time beats one in the hand.

  8. as I said earlier today, people are calling sports talkback radio lately and are saying that they no longer believe what the journos are reporting

  9. Yet another reason to support Geelong over the odious Collingwood.

    [Senator Xenophon attacked the AFL and Collingwood president Eddie McGuire for jumping into the anti-pokies reform campaign alongside the NRL and Clubs Australia, but praised the Geelong Football Club for breaking ranks and supporting the reforms and called on other clubs to follow suit.]

  10. [AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou has told Clubs Australia to shut up, denying the AFL was working with the lobby group in its fight against the federal government’s poker-machine reforms.

    Demetriou said the so-called alliance between the AFL, NRL and Clubs Australia and reports that the football codes were planning to run television advertisements against mandatory pre-commitment technology for high-intensity pokies, were bemusing and untrue.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/shut-up-afl-tells-pokies-campaigners-20110926-1kt63.html

    How embarrassment for those outlets who ran with this yesterday and today.

  12. [She obviously didn’t check with the AFL and the rest of the mob followed like little chooks.]

    The sad thing is the ABC followed like good lemmings. Despite articles on Sunday in online publications calling it as crap.

  13. Ms Macklin has just come up with a winner, IMHO. She has stopped taling about ‘problem gamblers’.

    She has started talking about ‘poker machine addicts’ and ‘poker machine addiction.’

    10/10 for whoever in her office thunk that one up.

  19. Diogs,

    The most intersting thing is Jackson’s declaration she decided to take on Mike Williamson and the leadeship of the HSU while in a Psych Ward.

  20. [Would you prefer Sophie Mirabella?]

    As a sworn enemy of the Liberals and all they stand for, yes.

    I would love to see Mirabella as PM (if we have to have an LNP govt that is).

    Bishop might just be able to bumble her way through to being a mediocre PM.

    Mirabella would be an unmitigated disaster causing the LNP to be out of power for a generation.

    Or at least until Sophie is old enough to have some bright young law student have Power Of Attorney over her affairs. 👿

  22. [The sad thing is the ABC followed like good lemmings. Despite articles on Sunday in online publications calling it as crap.]

    rua – that was the surprising bit. Tweets between Maiden and Middleton seemed to show that Middleton thought Maiden had overstepped the mark and yet the mob still wrote their articles for today. Grattan, as a senior journo, needs to seriously rethink her agenda.

  27. If anything Eddie Everywhere has been made a fool of.
    So has the “Journalist” who wrote this now infamous article.

    I have seen a few comments on the bigfooty blog in the past,wtte that Vlad is an ALP man.

  28. I am not an AFL follower but just heard Andrew Demetriou on 5pm ABC Canberra radio news. Loved the multiple strong putdowns of the media hacks accusing them of misrepresenting the AFL position. Unfortunately that did not stop the newsreader subsequently referring to McGuire’s ‘footy tax’ lie without any comment.

  29. GG

    [The most interesting thing is Jackson’s declaration she decided to take on Mike Williamson and the leadership of the HSU while in a Psych Ward.]

    Actually, I also thought that was the most interesting bit. If you end up on a psych ward because of stress, I’d like to think you had enough insight into the problem that you might step back a bit, play a straight bat and keep your head down.

  30. Ms Mirabella has some runs on the board. She is action woman. Things have happened. A person has died. Moneys have been transferred. Investments in an election campaign and primary industry have been made.

    OTOH, Ms Bishop has been dropped as Shadow Treasurer. Mr Sheridan, who knows about these things, reckons she is the worst Shadow Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs Australia has ever had. She keeps misplacing her dear leaders. Plus, she has had some sort of weird interaction with Mr van Onselen.

    Ergo, Ms Mirabella is a doer. Ms Bishop is a serial failed souffle.

  31. Boerwar

    [Should we get the kangaroo off our national crest and replace it with a hamster rampant?]

    I think Wombat sleeping would be better. Native and accurate.

  32. http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/nauru-officially-joins-refugee-convention-20110926-1kt6h.html

    [Nauru is now officially a party to the United Nations Refugee Convention.

    The tiny Pacific nation – Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s preferred destination for asylum seekers who arrive in Australia by boat – signed the paperwork necessary to join the convention in June.

    After waiting 90 days for the UN to process the paperwork, the Nauruan government on Monday confirmed it was now a party to the convention.

    Advertisement: Story continues below Nauru’s decision to sign the convention bolstered Mr Abbott’s calls to recommence offshore processing of asylum seekers in the island’s mothballed detention centre.]

  34. Diogs,

    She might be the straight bat. But she is ceertainly taking the long shovel to a few of her political enemies.

  39. Did Ms Grattan say that the AFL was going to join the Clubs Australia hillbilly?

    I thought it was Ms Maiden confirming yet again that she is a journalist with no standards?

    Or did Ms Maiden make some stuff up and Ms Grattan just joined the stampede?

    It used to be so much easier to read a newspaper. The journos actually used to feel embarrassed if they cocked it up.

  40. GG

    She’s not playing a straight bat. She’s swinging at everything and making a spectacle of herself. I’m not saying she is lying, but she is making herself the story.

    I note that The Australian hasn’t quite managed to report Demetriou’s comments. Must still be cleaning the excrement from the fan.

  41. [Actually, I also thought that was the most interesting bit. If you end up on a psych ward because of stress, I’d like to think you had enough insight into the problem that you might step back a bit, play a straight bat and keep your head down.]

    Who gets into a psych ward cause of stress? Most if not all people in psych wards are mentally ill, it is a sorta prerequisite for admission. Try going to your local hospital and say I am stressed, let me in. I think they would call you a cab.

  43. The Media have mis-read the Public on this, from what I can see. Mandaotry Pre-Commitments seems to be having resonence with people (if the sentiment at ‘Bigfooty’ is anything to go by)
    The Government is on a winner with this.

  47. poroti

    I am a bit concerned about your reading material from which I have extracted the following:

    [Mating takes place once a year. The short mating season is apparently stimulated by a certain increase in daylight during the second half of winter (July, in northern Australia).
    During this time males travel extensively between communal nests in a hectic mating frenzy.
    Mating can take up to twelve hours, with the death of the males shortly after copulation.
    With all his attention and energy taken up with sex rather than feeding, stress hormones (Corticosteroids) strip his body of protein and fat. The result is a breakdown in the animal’s immune system, and death within two weeks.]

    Now we can hypothesise about the source for the phrase: feeling ‘rooted’ and/or feeling ‘shagged’.

  49. [Gary

    Collingwood played their GF against the Hawks]
    Probably right but they did have the break like Geelong. We’ll see. I was more confident last year than this year I must admit but hey at least they are there with a chance.

  50. [I note that The Australian hasn’t quite managed to report Demetriou’s comments.]

    Can’t see them on the news.com.au site either.

    Must have the same cleaning challenge as the OO.

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