Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 58-42, although this stability is the result of a correction in the respondent-allocated preference flow after a worst-ever result for Labor last time. On other measures, Labor has in fact gone slightly backwards. Their primary vote is down half a point to 32 per cent with the Coalition up half a point to 48 per cent and the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 11 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party lead when preferences are distributed in accordance with the result of 2010 election has widened from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from combined sample of 1990.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,755 comments on “Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. I wonder how long people afraid of an Abbott government will have to keep telling ourselves “two more years . . . two more years”

    At least we can take some comfort in the stuff that’ll go through parliament in that time, even if the worst happens in the end.

  2. Tim Costello on ABC Radio PM praising Australia’s new foreign aid policy, announced by the Foreign Minister in his UN speech. 🙂

  3. From the other thread:

    [Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Frank: I’m a Labor realist, unlike the rest of the starry eyed Julia Gillard apparatchicks here.

    You are as Real as Humphrey B Bear – a well known Liberal Party sympathiser.

  4. [Mr. Magoo
    Has George ‘Denuto’ Brandis demanded a police investigation into death of @SophieMirabellaMP ‘s #SugarDaddy ? #auspol #abcnews24 Tony?]

  5. [ A lower dollar is good news for our exporters

    And a good thing too – the AUD coming off is just the reprieve a lot of exporters need. A long term average of 1AUD=0.70USD means the AUD is waaaay above anything that can be considered normal.]

    Let me tell youse, my US$ price has just dropped US$200 per piece, and I just received and order from America for 3 units… specifically based on the low exchange rate of today.

    I’m over the moon.

    Tonight we eat… and cat food be damned: I’m doing canned spaghetti on toast for tea!

  6. Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
    glen i hardly read your posts sometimes i think well i had better check that out only sometimes I often read what other people have put in their post about what you say, thats how i see it.

    but dubious it is not it happens all the time here, in this electorate and in wilkies and in Dick Adams these three electorates border where i live and i shop in all three of them and bank and visit friends, the people in the bank i only new one of them, they where mostly 50 plus and the tellers in their 40′s

    they all hated abbott to person, said that he made them sick i said to one lady i turn over the channel when he is on qt, she said how much she liked qt but want watch it now.

    but then you think everything i say is dubious.

    fraught with uncertainty or doubt
    2. open to doubt or suspicion
    3. not convinced

    so there you go you think becauce i repeated this true conversation i am all the above.

  7. [Polls seem to be flatlining]

    Alarmingly so from a Labor point of view – can Julia really improve that much during the rest of this year, if December is the time when Caucus will supposedly revisit the leadership question?

  8. bbp

    Point taken.
    Also you are right. Polls aren’t moving. Ms Gillard and Labor are as unpopular as they were last week.


  9. [bbp

    Point taken.
    Also you are right. Polls aren’t moving. Ms Gillard and Labor are as unpopular as they were last week. ]

    Labor has reached rock bottom. It’s all UP from here!

  10. boer war whats not good morgan, never take any notice of mr morgan

    william explained once that he does his polls in a different way, said it was quite strange now that was some weeks ago. , i didnt really understand what william said but thats what he said

  11. My Say

    I do not doubt that in general Tasmanians would prefer Ms Gillard to Tony Abbott in droves. Lets face it Tasmania is a Labor State through and through.

    But individual stories are hard to stomach as being genuine though they may be from time to time and maybe even in your case My Say.

    I’m sure if I had a similar true story where people were criticism Ms Gillard I would be told I was lying.

  12. [“two more years . . . two more years”]

    Just another catch cry used by NSW Labor and we all know how that ended.

    Love the fact we have two more year of watching Labor flail around headless before the screws get turned around on the libs.

  13. my say

    We might as well face reality. The polls are very bad. But, bottoms up!

    The polls will probably improve as reality seeps into the minds of the electorate. The only question is how much they will improve.

    There is plenty of time left for people to realise that the LOTO is a serial and spectacular liar who has got away with it so far.

  14. BB @ 19

    Hard to imagine that Labors polls could go lower, and impossible to believe that they would stay where they are for next 23 months – so it has to be up.

    But then lots of things political hard to imagine have happened in the last 18 months – a political suspension of disbelief if you like.

  15. Glen

    Highly dubious but even if true it’s not surprising as you live in Tasmania the last

    You had better not be calling My Say a liar, you Tory scumbag.

  16. Why would the polls change when nothing of note has changed in relation to the depiction of the Labor Government by the media? The Coalition are still getting away with murder and the Labor Government are totally incompetent – despite getting 190 pieces of legislation through a hung parliament and maintaining the confidence of conservative Independents.

    Until there is an attitudinal shift in media reporting – or until the CP compensation and tax cuts start resonating out in voter land – things will not change much outside margin of error.

    Labor -and Gillard in particular – know this and are playing the long game.

  17. And I meant to add; that is also why the Coalition and their media spruikers are getting increasingly shrill.

    They know time is running out to knock this government on the head before the electorate awakens from its “pox on both your houses” slumber.

  18. [if December is the time when Caucus will supposedly revisit the leadership question?]

    No December is celebrating the year of delivery, a few grogs to celebrate the Clean Energy Future, a study tour to the south of France and anticipation of the May budget.

  19. seems like it boewar, me bear of little brain finds Williams summation of polls like reading a legal letter.

    but yes i think thats what he is saying over the last two weeks ends not this week

    end mind you now lets see what was happening two weeks ago i think the mr

    Thompson thing was still out there then we had the Crean for PM thing then we had the the HC thing

    well there you go we had everything they could msm throw at us three weeks ago.

    so when you think about three weeks ago really a poll that was done on people
    THOUGHTS THREE WEEKS ago is quite irrelevant this weekend, so does mr morgan

    start with a new one this week end so by the time we see the next one it will also be three weeks old well nearly.

  20. [ I’m over the moon.

    BB, I’m with you – my subscription services online charge in US dollars 🙂 Happy days]

    My problem is stock. I can’t make enough volume to justify sending a large consignment over to the US as a hedge.

    My German competition ships its stuff by the container-load. They have professional customs agents who do nothing each day but find all the lurks. So they can stabilize their price. I have to charge at whatever the rate is, each shipment. Some days I’m almost at their price, and some days (like today) I’m well and truly lower.

    Incidentally, to benefit from the AUSFTA (Free Trade Agreement) you just about have to get a letter from Julia Gillard, countersigned by Obama and (if you can swing it) the Pope, to qualify, even if on paper you DO qualify.

    My stuff (advanced optics) does qualify, but it’d cost me $20,000 to get the certificate, after I’ve paid off the Guild Of Customs Consultants for their cut. The Australian Chamber of Commerce (which normally issues certificates of origin) is – apparently – useless, as they don’t guarantee anything i.e. “To the best of our knowledge…” or wtte. If it’s not auditable – right down to where the sand is mined to make the glass, you’re in deep shit with the US Customs wallahs under the AUSFTA.

  21. Labor already hold 4 out of the 5 lower house seats in Tasmania, and Denison is effectively a Labor seat also(while Wilkie stays allied to the minority government).
    NSW, QLD and WA are the problem states for Labor, not Tassie.

  22. [NSW, QLD and WA are the problem states for Labor, not Tassie.]

    I think it is pretty reasonable to say that every state is a problem for Labor, its just that they are going to lose a bucketload in NSW and Qld.

  23. How will the passing of the Clean Energy bills boost Labor’s popularity, when most people are opposed to a Carbon Tax?
    It might have the opposite effect.

  24. [You had better not be calling My Say a liar, you Tory scumbag]

    Chill out Puff. I said dubious but not unsurprising 😮 No need to nasty.

    So Danny if the media bias persists then Labor are finished?

  25. [45

    Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    How will the passing of the Clean Energy bills boost Labor’s popularity, when most people are opposed to a Carbon Tax?
    It might have the opposite effect.

    you would know Richo – being the Libs biggest Cheerleader here 🙂

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