The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 58-42, although this stability is the result of a correction in the respondent-allocated preference flow after a worst-ever result for Labor last time. On other measures, Labor has in fact gone slightly backwards. Their primary vote is down half a point to 32 per cent with the Coalition up half a point to 48 per cent and the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 11 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party lead when preferences are distributed in accordance with the result of 2010 election has widened from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from combined sample of 1990.
Thanks puff,, you say it so well,
Boerwar put it this way i am like Danny, i will face that in two years time, until then
the polls tell me nothing, and one thats two weeks old already ???
i read once that one of the trusted reporters i remember who it was but i want say, said that anecdotal evidence of what people say and blog is far better than polls
he said just go through the bloggers and what people are saying now that is the real poll.
What has Labor’s popularity got to do with the price of eggs?
[I think it is pretty reasonable to say that every state is a problem for Labor, its just that they are going to lose a bucketload in NSW and Qld.]
True…….Labor probably only has to worry about possibly losing Bass in Tasmania…….while they could be down to 1 or 2 seats in QLD and lose a huge amount in NSW.
we know not every posts makes it mari tell us that, she does a wonderful job with her post and i bet she understand what i mean
BB, sounds bloody complicated and expensive. I think I’d be a nervous wreck if I was exporting physical goods. Selling digital goods is, especially when the dollar drops is my preference.
Are the optics you export made here? And is your main market in the US?
[george
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:17 pm | Permalink
ShowsOn
How are they going to afford it since the Govt has decided a monopoly is a best way about it ffs?
What about this one, still faster than today’s fastest ADSL2+ connection:
NBN: 25/5 (up/down) 100+100GB, at $69.95/month
ADSL2+ equivalen (at slower speed) $79.95/month
Hmmm, but does it come in beige ?]
(from other thread)
George:
Thanks for that comparison.
The only thing you missed was the multi billion dollar cost of creating the NBN…
[Penny Wong throws the Boatphone at Wonder Woman.]
BK – pleeeeeze exploiiiin!
How does Labor lose a bucketload in Qld?
My Say @ 51
Now you are just being delusional.
[Morgan usually has a built in bias for Labor of 1 or 2% extra – correct?]
Yes, but only if you’re operating off the primary vote and the previous election 2PP measure. So if you’re arguing that this poll should be read as 59-41 or 60-40, you are mistaken. More like 57-43.
[How does Labor lose a bucketload in Qld?]
If current polling is replicated at an actual election, Labor loses just about everything except Griffith.
[blackburnpseph
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:53 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 46
What is yiur view on Kathy Jackson?
]
let’s just say she is no saint in the whole matter.
[ – being the Libs biggest Cheerleader here]
I am deeply offended Frank! 😉
[The only thing you missed was the multi billion dollar cost of creating the NBN…]
A drop in the ocean when you consider our GDP and that the Australian people will OWN it and have RECOUPED THE COST for it in full by the end.
So yeah, thanks for letting me know I missed that bit
Which explains why the MP for Blair, Shayne Neumann, didn’t exactly rule out a leadership challenge yesterday.
[The only thing you missed was the multi billion dollar cost of creating the NBN…]
The NBN costs nothing, it makes a small profit. Why can’t people understand this fact?
The Liberal policy is the one that costs billions.
Black spurr you seem like a very decent middle austl from melbourne would you really trust mr abbott with your WAY OF LIFE.
come on tell us no medi care now joe has repeadly said he will sell it, no PBs , no HECS, you live in dream land, why the hell do people vote for these people
i like to start with you YOU EXPLAIN IT you know why we vote like we do
BUT LIBERALS god only knows
Abbo would be offended too Mod Lib 😆
TLM,
In your wisdom please tell me how Caucus will go about re examining the leardership in December ?
BH
Wonder Woman = Lyndal Curtis
Boatphone = the device through which Abbott will sit in his chair in Kirribilli and tell a naval commander what to do with an intercepted AS boat
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
Which explains why the MP for Blair, Shayne Neumann, didn’t exactly rule out a leadership challenge yesterday.
]
He did no such thing.
Nice try at verballing him Richo.
[The NBN costs nothing,]
Great, I’ll have three then….actually make that 4 I am looking for a birthday present for this weekend.
Ru @ 58
Griffith is the safest Labor seat in Qld on a margin of 8.5% – so there is (in no particular order) – Lilley, Oxley, Rankin, Capricornia, Moreton, Petrie, Blair – below that. Quite a few seats on a fairly small margin.
They went down to 1 in 1975 – Oxley and 2 in 1996 – Brisbane and Rankin?? – though they probably would have held Oxly without the expulsion of La Hanson.
BBS: exactly.
If you already know you are toast at the next election – or you have a strong feeling you might be – the way you behave in terms of policy implementation does, I think, tell the story as to whether or not you are a visionary leader or merely someone who hopes to be re-elected.
I know that Julia Gillard has a few detractors on this site, but surely even her harshest critic must respect her for going all out – in an all guns blazing, fight to the death kind of way – to ensure she implements all of her favoured policy outcomes (or fulfilling promises to the Indies) before 2013.
If, as has been suggested, she is being a “populist” (and, unbelievably, there are some Liberal shills who have suggested this) the last thing she would be doing is pushing on with pricing carbon, taking on the mining industry or giving the tobacco and pokie industries a one-fingered salute. Even when you factor in that some of these things (ie poker reform) is part of the Indie wish-list, to hear her speak about them in press conferences and in parliament you can see there is no doubt about her desire to have these reforms implemented as well. She clearly didn’t need to have her arm twisted.
And yet she persists, in the face of opposition (sometimes strident and monied-up opposition) to these reforms and she will ultimately prevail. I must say that with every day that passes I am increasingly impressed with the way she has managed this hung parliament and the people within it.
I believe also that history with judge her very much more kindly than the current ignorant rabble that inhabit the Canberra Press Gallery.
Doyley yes
lets see if he can come up with the answer even i know that one,.
but i will let him answer it off to get the tea
[blackburnpseph
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:59 pm | Permalink
Ru @ 58
Griffith is the safest Labor seat in Qld on a margin of 8.5% – so there is (in no particular order) – Lilley, Oxley, Rankin, Capricornia, Moreton, Petrie, Blair – below that. Quite a few seats on a fairly small margin.
They went down to 1 in 1975 – Oxley and 2 in 1996 – Brisbane and Rankin?? – though they probably would have held Oxly without the expulsion of La Hanson.
]
Rua lives in Quinceland.
He might have a tad more local knowledge than you would 🙂
[A drop in the ocean when you consider our GDP]
A classic example of why the ALP should not be given the keys to the safe for too long.
Take out Rudd’s personal vote, and Griffith would be a line ball proposition for Labor next time.
[Great, I’ll have three then….actually make that 4 I am looking for a birthday present for this weekend.]
so you don’t understand how it works then?
[78
Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:00 pm | Permalink
Take out Rudd’s personal vote, and Griffith would be a line ball proposition for Labor next time.
]
Richo – You would know – since you are the Lib’s best Friend atm,
I couldn’t let this one from Rummel in the previous thread pass by without comment:
Really? You’re saying Abbott’s popular because he’s a talentless screw-up like a lot of people out there? Just an ordinary guy with an ordinary guy’s intellect and prejudices? If that were true, it would beg the question: what do people think politics is? Some kind of reality show to find Australia’s most ‘normal’ person?
Besides which, Abbott is unpopular anyway. Always has been. He’s doing well because he’s decided to sell himself as a lightning-rod for Australia’s massed whingers. People love whingeing. They don’t have to like him, they’re too busy whining about the government. He’s getting along by fostering two false assumptions:
1. All politicians are the same.
2. Blame the ones who are in power.
We’ve been hit by an avalanche or articles and reports over the past couple of years which are basically some guy telling us something terrible the government are going to do. Doesn’t matter what guy it is, doesn’t matter if he’s operating on reliable information, doesn’t matter if the dire predictions ever come true. Just as long as the predictions are made and the consequences sound bad.
Simple formula. Even an idiot can carry that off. Even Hockey nearly managed it.
If you want to counter it, you can only really do it by providing a vision. There’s no point telling people things are going along quite well, especially compared to the rest of the world. They’re not listening to that.
My Say @ 67
I am very much in the ‘pox on both their houses’ view at present.
And Joe Hockey has NOT said they would Medicare but would sell Medibank Private which is a private health fund. Very different. Medicare is here to stay as is HECS.
The nbn is a no brainer – attacks on it is the clearest indication of brain off partisan hack mode on that there is short of a post that starts with ‘i’m a partsan hack who is repeating talking points without considering how stupid they are.
Update from ABC News: 180 people were on the 2 boats that arrived today.
[And yet she persists, in the face of opposition (sometimes strident and monied-up opposition) to these reforms and she will ultimately prevail. I must say that with every day that passes I am increasingly impressed with the way she has managed this hung parliament and the people within it.
I believe also that history with judge her very much more kindly than the current ignorant rabble that inhabit the Canberra Press Gallery.
]
I see it as the tortise and the hare, danny and still belive she will be pm for some time to come, i also think there will be no newspapers in around 12 to 18 months.
still havent heard does the australian news thingo going behind the pay area,
also do they still have the pile of papper sitting in the newsagents
[A classic example of why the ALP should not be given the keys to the safe for too long.]
Why? Don’t you believe in spending money to make money?
The following is the response from SHY’s office to an email suggesting that the Malaysian proposal would offer a far better solution than Abbott’s likely approach if he has unfettered power. It is a form letter that addresses issues that were not even raised in the original email. I am sure that the Green’s heart is in the right place in relation to this very difficult issue but IMO they are sleep-walking into irrelevancy.
“Thank you for writing to the Australian Greens with your questions regarding asylum seekers. Senator Hanson-Young, Greens spokesperson on Immigration and Citizenship has asked me to respond to your email on her behalf.
There is not queue for asylum seekers to apply to. Asylum seekers must have left their country of origin to be considered refugees and Australia has no obligation to accept any refugees in camps overseas. Australia does accept a small number in recognition of the burden that asylum seekers place on the international system. In international camps there is no orderly queue to which an asylum seeker can apply.
Many refugees originate from the developing world and then flee to other, neighbouring developing countries. These countries cannot refuse entry at their borders to people fleeing violence and persecution due to the threat of imminent death. For Australia to refuse people who arrive on our shores we are not only breaching our international obligations as a signatory to the UN Convention of the Rights of the Refugee but we are transferring that burden of processing and sheltering on the developing world who already bear a disproportionate share of the costs of irregular people movement.
Economic status does not prevent you from needing to seek asylum. Wealth has little to do with persecution. Sometimes asylum seekers may arrive in a country like Malaysia and see the camps and spend all their savings, often selling all their possessions, to avoid that fate. Others will continue to live of those savings for years in camps. This is a personal choice of individuals. Asylum seekers often make great sacrifices, leaving everything behind them to reach safety. Even those who arrive by plane or boat are far from being cased up.
Unfortunately, in the current system there is no way to assure all refugees a ‘fair go’. The process of fleeing a country is disorderly, traumatic and often unplanned. Millions of people around the world need resettlement and without a significant increase in refugee places from many countries, there will continue to be generations of people living and dying in refugee camps. However, Australia can give asylum seekers a fair go by honouring our international and our moral obligations to protect and shelter those genuine refugees who arrive on our shores.
Thank you for your interest in this issue. I trust this has helped answer your questions.
Kind regards,
Lia Svilans
Office Manager”
See ya Frank………off to have some dinner and watch football.
BTW I hope your Eagles beat Geelong tomorrow. 🙂
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
Which explains why the MP for Blair, Shayne Neumann, didn’t exactly rule out a leadership challenge yesterday.]
Can we finally decide and agree amongst ourselves that Thornleigh Labor Man is a rather poorly disguised concern troll?
The NBN actually charges money for its services. While Abbott via Turnbull is talking about giving billions of dollars to private companies for zero return. Talk about pissing taxpayers money against the wall.
[Why? Don’t you believe in spending money to make money?]
Not at all, that is the foundation of capitalism. However, to do this wisely, you need to know how much money you can spend and how much money you will make.
[Can we finally decide and agree amongst ourselves that Thornleigh Labor Man is a rather poorly disguised concern troll?]
yep
Frank @ 76
Political margins are an objective measure … though objective is not in your vocabulary as we all know. And the others are historical facts (except the 1996 supposition) … facts are also not in your repertoire.
BB
William outed evan as a concern troll a few months ago.
evan
[Update from ABC News: 180 people were on the 2 boats that arrived today.]
leave your cum elsewhere, please.
Previous thread:
[You’ll be thrilled that Glen is going overseas until December – one less person for you to ignore.]
Jesus, grow up will you, Evan!
That statement alone demonstrates how much you are a hindrance to the conversation here! You come on here and frequently bellow about how nobody respects your opinions, then get cranky when they express opinions different from your own and now you’re protesting when people choose to just ignore you?
It either means:
You are that intolerant of any other train of thought other than your own that you choose to passive-aggressively play victim
AND/OR
You are just here to start shit for the sake of it.
Either way, please grow up. Plenty of people on here (who lean Labor) prefer Rudd and even dislike Gillard and express this constructively and coherently, you on the other hand are just annoying.
[Not at all, that is the foundation of capitalism. However, to do this wisely, you need to know how much money you can spend and how much money you will make.]
It will be cost neutral and benefit business, science, education and health immensely – oh I see, it’s only “wise” when it makes money for the billionaires 🙂
[If you want to counter it, you can only really do it by providing a vision. There’s no point telling people things are going along quite well, especially compared to the rest of the world. They’re not listening to that.]
Agree, the only vision being provided by Labor is a green vision. I just dont understand why Labor and the greens just merge.
[93
blackburnpseph
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:04 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 76
Political margins are an objective measure … though objective is not in your vocabulary as we all know. And the others are historical facts (except the 1996 supposition) … facts are also not in your repertoire.
]
Keep dreaming.
Remember the Rudd polls at 60-40.
That is all.
Fair suck of the sauce bottle bb you couldn’t fairly say thornlie labor man disguises it at all – i thought thornlie labor man was explicit sarcasm.