GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll shows little change from a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. However, it wouldn’t be a current opinion poll if there wasn’t an unpleasant twist for the government, and this time it’s a new low on the primary vote of 26 per cent, down a point on last time. The Coalition are down as well, by two points to 48 per cent, with the Greens up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have recovered from last week’s disaster, although they are still the second worst she has ever recorded: her approval is up four to 27 per cent and disapproval down seven to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott has failed to hold on to an improvement recorded last time, his approval down five to 34 per cent and disapproval up two to 54 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-34 to 40-35.
This week’s Essential Research shows no change in voting intention, and indeed the series has not recorded any shifts worth mentioning since mid-June. The current scores are 32 per cent Labor, 49 per cent Coalition and 10 per cent Greens, with the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. Further questions find respondents believe to be the world in general and Australia in particular to be less safe than at the time of the September 11 attacks; little change in opinion on the carbon tax, with support down two points since August 1 to 37 per cent and opposition up one to 52 per cent; continuing broad support for the idea when it is specifically tied to compensation and investment in renewable energy; a belief nonetheless that the current scheme has been rushed; and a confused picture on whether governments should control either or both houses of parliament (though it is clear not many would opt for neither).
Further:
A by-election looms in the north coast NSW state seat of Clarence following the resignation of Nationals MP Steve Cansdell. Cansdell has admitted to signing a false statutory declaration so that a staff member could take the blame for a 2005 speeding offence, which would otherwise have cost him his licence. The last time there was a by-election in the Grafton-based seat, in 1996, the result was a triumph for Labor: months after losing his seat of Richmond at the federal election, Labor candidate won the seat from the Nationals with a swing of 14.0 per cent, adding a handy buffer to what had previously been the one-seat majority of Bob Carr’s government. This time, Labor need not bother fielding a candidate: after winning the seat on Woods’s retirement in 2003, Steve Cansdell consolidated the Nationals’ hold in 2007 before picking up a swing of nearly 20 per cent in the electoral avalanche that was the March state election, pushing his party’s margin above 30 per cent.
The Prime Minister has flagged support for trials of American-style primaries as part of its preselection process for some Coalition-held seats ahead of the next election. In keeping with the recommendation of the post-election review conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner, 20 per cent of a preselection ballot will be determined by those willing to register as official party supporters. Sixty per cent will be determined by branch members and 20 per cent by affiliated trade union members. The NSW Labor Party has resolved to follow a more radical path in five electorates before the 2015 state election, with 50 per cent determined by primaries and the remainder determined by branch members and unions. Two such experiments were conducted last year, by the NSW Nationals in Tamworth and Victorian Labor in Kilsyth. The former was a highly successful effort in which 4293 voters participated in the selection of Kevin Andrews, who duly unseated independent incumbent Peter Draper; the latter was something of a damp squib, attracting only 170 participants and selecting an electorate officer who did nothing to hold back the anti-Labor tide. The lesson seems to be that a degree of community enthusiasm is requried for the procedure to be worth the effort. This is least likely to be forthcoming when the party is not a serious prospect of winning the seat, and most likely in areas where the party is traditionally strong. Herein lies the catch: it is not in such areas where party branches are moribund, which is the very ill that primaries presume to cure. All that being so, trials in Coalition-held seats do not seem greatly promising at a time when every indication suggests seats will be swinging the other way.
Antony Green has published analyses of the New South Wales election in March and the Queensland election of October 2009. Among other things, these tell us that the respective two-party splits were 64.2-35.8 to the Coalition, with exhausted minor party votes accounting for 12.9 per cent of the total formal vote; and 50.5-49.5 to Labor, with 7.7 per cent exhausting. In New South Wales, Labor’s primary vote of 25.6 per cent was its worst result since 1904, while the Coalition’s 51.8 per cent was its best result since 1932.
The delicate balance in the Northern Territory’s Legislative Assembly shifted a fortnight ago when Alison Anderson, who won her outback seat of MacDonnell as a Labor member in 2008 and quit the party the following year, joined the Country Liberal Party. The numbers in the chamber are now 12 each for the Labor government and CLP opposition, with Nelson independent Gerry Wood continuing to provide Labor with a decisive vote on confidence and supply.
The New South Wales government has introduced a bill that will ban donations to political parties from organisations of any kind, and include spending by affiliated unions within caps on party spending during election campaigns. One of the Keneally government’s final acts was to set caps of $9.3 million on electoral communications spending by parties and $100,000 for each candidate, and to ban donations from the alcohol, gambling and tobacco sectors.
[The entry level NBN packages are half of what I am paying now. If I could join up to the NBN now I would be about $30 a month better off.]
Let me give you a business perspective.
I have a collaborative relationship with a business about 2KM away from me. Because we need to send large files back and forth, and have a need for an offsite backup solution (they backup to us, we backup to them), and databases that accessed between sites, we each have an SHDSL connection, giving us speeds roughly half of those of the maximum provided by the NBN at around $900 per month. That’s not a mistake, that’s 9 with two zeros.
With the NBN, I will save almost $10,000 per annum, with faster speeds (and greater monthly data allowance).
[You are assuming the prices are credible this far out ShowsOn.]
Really? I think you’ll find the prices will be even LESS when the NBN rollout picks up speed.
dave
[Put slightly differently – The All Ords now need to increase 72.8 % to get back to its peak of 6873 in 2007.
Todays close of 3978.5 is about the same level as in November 2004.]
Following the 1929 crash the Dow to 25 years to recover 🙁
For all those who think that the current polls are overestimating the level of support for the Liberals……..the actual NSW state election result in March was very similar to the Newspoll/AC Nielsen/Galaxy projections from months before.
You’re all betting your houses on the carbon tax to save her – very brave assumption.
My Say
Highly dubious but even if true it’s not surprising as you live in Tasmania the last bastion of the ALP if the Polls are anything to go by 🙂
BIG SHIP
well thorn,leigh evan, will be pleased to know even seeing his name there and NOT reading one word drains my energy, makes me quite tired, and despairing that any one could be so repetitive and so obsessed with one subject,
smithe @ 4235:
[…beware the client who is Hell-bent on pursuing something like ‘the truth’ as a ‘matter of principle.’]
Yes, forget about the cab rank rule, or the solicitor’s equivalent, when faced with such a client.
if glen didnt have such a gravatis i would notice him and the words my say stand out.
GLEN READ MY LIPS MY LETTER MY THOUGHTS I DONT READ YOUR POSTS.
[You are assuming the prices are credible this far out ShowsOn.
Of course they are credible because that’s what people are paying!
If you are in an NBN trial area, you can sign up to any ISP you like.You don’t sign up with NBN Co, as they are forbidden in legislation from selling retail products.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 5:27 pm | Permalink
For all those who think that the current polls are overestimating the level of support for the Liberals……..the actual NSW state election result in March was very similar to the Newspoll/AC Nielsen/Galaxy projections from months before.
You’re all betting your houses on the carbon tax to save her – very brave assumption.
]
Richo, Maaaate – embrace your inner Liberal and do away with the Faux Labor Bullshit.
You know you can….
That is one achievement for Bludger today. We have established that Mr Abbott is a compulsive liar.
Nope – it was just taken for a bit of a spin until 2 PM when it started selling off as the lads got back from lunch, then downhill until the close.
Europe is up a bit atm.
Super funds and some institutions would be the main buyers and some bolder punters.
But I would have thought anyone wanting to sell would have done so long before now because we are down, calender year to date almost 18% as of this arvos close.
Margin calls would be squeezing out some further sellers too, but in general those selling are pretty late.
[GLEN READ MY LIPS MY LETTER MY THOUGHTS I DONT READ YOUR POSTS.]
My Say
If you don’t read my posts then why are you posting comments to me? That implies you do read my posts.
Check out this video on YouTube
Tall tales from Tony. Climate change caper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HED3LJKzAE&feature=youtube_gdata_player
SO GLEN you are calling me a liar are you, i did read that post
so tell me i am lying am i you call it dubious. well i have a friend who was there and she reads pb she doesnt post i may ask her to post.
william i dont like being called a lier. but then considering thats what abbott and his mob call the pm i am not surprised
dave
Cf the 4,000 figure, your comments add an interesting perspective.
I feel sorry for folks who were thinking of retiring this year. It must be hell for them trying to figure out what to do. I also feel sorry for anyone who was invested in the ASX and who retired in the past two years. They must be thinking about going back to work around about now.
My Say: You’ll be thrilled that Glen is going overseas until December – one less person for you to ignore. 😀
poroti:
[Put slightly differently – The All Ords now need to increase 72.8 % to get back to its peak of 6873 in 2007.
Todays close of 3978.5 is about the same level as in November 2004.]
[Following the 1929 crash the Dow to 25 years to recover 🙁 ]
That makes me think that a simple high-interest savings account would make a better super fund than the usual mix of stocks.
I saw a graph recently (can’t remember where) that plotted the share market over the last twenty years or so against a fairly low compounding interest rate – guess which came out ahead?
[That is one achievement for Bludger today. We have established that Mr Abbott is a compulsive liar.]
And likewise that Ms Gillard is too as all politicians are.
The Claw @ 5171
[I know the logic behind what you’re saying. I’m just saying that I saw, in the 2010 US house elections, the exact same logic used to explain why polling pointing to big Repub gains was not accurate. And it turned out that, actually, it was.]
Not “the Craw”, …”the Craw!”
Respects paid to Don Adams …
Sophie Mirabella / Colin Howard vs Union Credit Card used to pay for escort services.
Isn’t interesting how the MSM have reported both these stories. Someone used a CC to pay for prostitution services, nothing illegal in that. However look at the hysterical outrage at the reportage of that versus nonchalant reportage of the case Mirabella / Howard affair in which several legal and moral questions arise. The Mirabella / Howard affair is treated by the MSM as a non sequitur in comparison.
I just don’t get it. Prostitutes are honest professionals. The fees they charge are known upfront and are fixed. The services they provide are also discussed upfront.They carry out their work in a professional & safe manner, and generally exercise a duty of care to their clients.
Where as in the Mirabella / Howard affair none of the above seem to apply. Tony Abbott should be very worried about the Liberal Party Leadership which he holds due to his high moral assets in dealing with Truth as there now appears a potential challenger with greater moral assets than his. Who wuda thunk that was possible in today’s Liberal Party??
Abbott’s latest line about the government – “243 policy failures”.
New thread.
my say
I wouldn’t worry about it too much.
It is a tribal thing for Mr Abbott’s acolytes. Think of it as a trickle down effect when it comes to the truth.
They piss all over it.
Frank: I’m a Labor realist, unlike the rest of the starry eyed Julia Gillard apparatchicks here. 🙂
[A lower dollar is good news for our exporters
…
And a good thing too – the AUD coming off is just the reprieve a lot of exporters need. A long term average of 1AUD=0.70USD means the AUD is waaaay above anything that can be considered normal.]
Let me tell youse, my price has just dropped US$200 per piece, and I just received and order from America for 3 units… specifically based on the low exchange rate of today.
Tonight we eat!
I’m over the moon.
Read the iinet report. the monopoly argument is quite silly because it ignores.the current farce delivered by howard and what kind of moron argues you can’t afford one network but somehow we can afford the 6 or 7 needed for a functioning market. I will also point out if it is as bad and expensive as the ‘austrailia non good enough fo real broadband’ cringers then 2 and 3rd.rate technologies.will be competative an there isn’t a monopoly. Attacking the nbn is one of the key inicators i look for to identify brain off partisan propagandists. The nbn is such a no brainer .
glen i hardly read your posts sometimes i think well i had better check that out only sometimes I often read what other people have put in their post about what you say, thats how i see it.
but dubious it is not it happens all the time here, in this electorate and in wilkies and in Dick Adams these three electorates border where i live and i shop in all three of them and bank and visit friends, the people in the bank i only new one of them, they where mostly 50 plus and the tellers in their 40’s
they all hated abbott to person, said that he made them sick i said to one lady i turn over the channel when he is on qt, she said how much she liked qt but want watch it now.
but then you think everything i say is dubious.
[ fraught with uncertainty or doubt
2. open to doubt or suspicion
3. not convinced]
so there you go you think becauce i repeated this true conversation i am all the above.
Boerwar @ 5293:
[Congratulations.
With the price of gold being what it is, the gold digging profession appears to be alive and well.]
Luke 23:34.
Lets not overlook the old master himself –
[Republican candidates very similar to Abbott , promise to fix everything at no extra cost and of course no GBNT and stop the illegals.]
arunta – I can’t get over the low rate of income tax in the US. All hail to Warren Buffet for embarrassing the mega wealthy over there.
Altho, come to think of it, most of our mega wealthy here get away with paying very little income tax.
Our oldest son was in Washington on business the week of Obama’s inauguration and he found the saddest thing was the number of older African Americans who showed him their War service cards and said they had served their country. He said they actually made his trip because he ended up having great conversations with some of them.
I love the fact that the best of the new NSW govt is worse than the worst of the old labor govt… Of course it will take the cockroaches some time to realse it.
blackburnpseph
[It is hardly surprising that Labor’s polling numbers are in the gutter when those that loudly proclaim true support for Labor show out and out snobbery as expressed in comments like the above. And George is not alone as a Labor supporter expressing such sentiments.]
I am with you I find the term “bogan” really offensive. Who among us have any right to categorise people. Given the polls for the ALP lately the Party needs every vote it can get and deriding any sector of the communitiy is is not actually a smart idea.