Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 58-42, although this stability is the result of a correction in the respondent-allocated preference flow after a worst-ever result for Labor last time. On other measures, Labor has in fact gone slightly backwards. Their primary vote is down half a point to 32 per cent with the Coalition up half a point to 48 per cent and the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 11 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party lead when preferences are distributed in accordance with the result of 2010 election has widened from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from combined sample of 1990.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,755 comments on “Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. black spur you live in lala land, they would get rid of of it all ,

    sorry mate wake up to yourself howard tried very very hard to get rid of HECS
    if you had student children around 8 YEARS AGO YOU WOULD remember the rallies at the unis around australia and howard wanted us all to sell our home to go to a nursing home and i bet they would include the family home when working out pensions

    do you realy trust these people poor you nothing is sacred in liberal land dont you see they like us to be poor uneducated and shoeless and pregnant

    but the upper class can afford uni and can afford to pay their private cover and so and so and o work choices your kids and grand kids not worried about them then

    and GW not worried about that then

    well i will leave you deep in thought

    the libs would even tax our coffins

  2. [Take out Rudd’s personal vote, and Griffith would be a line ball proposition for Labor next time.]

    Only to be a RW faction hack and get planted in one of Brisbane’s safest Labor seats (it only spent the 1996-1998 period being blue, since 1980, then have your acolytes revise history and claim you won it on your own hard work.

    By the way, who was the Liberal candidate in Griffith last time? Bit hard to lose votes in a seat to a nobody. The LNP were quite clever for leaving Griffith alone. Feeds the talking points!

  3. [billionaires]

    Gee, I wish….I don’t even classify for the one starting with an “m”…

    I agree that it will be built and in a decade we can accurately assess what it costs and how effective it has been in generating money. That is the only time we will be able to have an intelligent discussion about its worth.

    You have full faith that all will be well. I am a little sceptical that things will cost what they are estimated to cost, that the public will take it up at the rates needed, and that there will be nothing better in a decade (who knows, there may be a new technology that completely supercedes the NBN and perhaps everyone will go with that- then what?). Call me a sceptic, you just get like that when you have watched a few government budgets blow out a tad…

  4. Even business couldn’t pass your absurd assertion mod lib – it is so obviously wrong i don’t even need to go down the path of the difference betweenprivate and public.

  5. [If current polling is replicated at an actual election, Labor loses just about everything except Griffith.]

    If today was monday I would have missed the weekend. But at least I now know a bucketload = about 5.

  6. [hairy nose

    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    Still no mention of Mirabella on the ABC. Do we really believe this would have been the case had it been a Government Minister?
    ]
    Nail meet head.

    You just answered your own question. 🙂

  7. [ Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    A classic example of why the ALP should not be given the keys to the safe for too long. ]

    Thats what costello used to say about howard.

    costello wouldn’t tell howard details of the budget because howard always wanted to piss it all up against the wall – which he did.

    Gretch was howards spy against costello in treasury.

    No wonder costello didn’t get an invitation to a meal at The Lodge or Kirribilli.

  8. [If today was monday I would have missed the weekend. But at least I now know a bucketload = about 5.]

    Shall we return to this discussion thread after the next election and see how many seats the ALP have lost around the place- particularly Qld and NSW?

  9. If Evan truly was a Labor person – as he has always claimed to be (as opposed to just a Rudd fan) – then he would still be backing the “team”, regardless of who is leading it.

    The fact that he continually posts anti-Labor articles or makes anti-Labor – as well as anti-Gillard – comments shows me he is no Labor voter.

    He strikes me more as one of those erstwhile Liberal voters who switched there vote in 2007 because they “quite liked that nice Kevin Rudd”.

  10. [Agree, the only vision being provided by Labor is a green vision. I just dont understand why Labor and the greens just merge.]

    Because they don’t want to?

    Why don’t the Liberal Party, The National Party, The Liberal National Party and the Country Liberal Party just merge and stop playing silly games with our electoral system?

    At least Labor and the Greens have two different platforms and vote differently from each other at times.

  11. [kimworldwide
    @kimworldwide
    Sophie Mirabella Conflict of Interest?A solicitor acts as power of attorney,will executor+sole beneficiary 2 a 4mer lover of unsound mind]

  12. [Capitalism, as a deliberate economic system]

    so mod lib u of the above, seems like it s type of religion for you,

    survival of the fittest , let the weak get weaker let them eat cake.

    even the person who was atrributed with saying did not last the distance.

    actualy met a very nasty ending.

  13. [The Liberals presided over the lowest-ever value of the $AU against the Greenback. Labor the highest.]

    The Liberals presided over the highest interest rate ever. Labor the lowest

    * Fraser government (when Mr Howard was treasurer), 21.4 per cent in April 1982;
    * Hawke government, 19 per cent in December 1985
    * Keating government, 7.9 per cent in December 1994.
    * Lowest Jan 2009 under LABOR, RBA Cash Rate 3%

  14. [The only thing you missed was the multi billion dollar cost of creating the NBN…

    The NBN costs nothing, it makes a small profit. Why can’t people understand this fact?
    The Liberal policy is the one that costs billions.]

    You see what they’re doing there again. Right-Wing Projecting: right-wingers projecting their own failings onto their opponents.

  15. [Thats what costello used to say about howard.]

    …and with good reason!

    There is a difference wasting money when you are rolling in it versus when you are borrowing it. Well, thats my opinion anyway. However, I agree with you that there was too much middle class welfare in the terminal Howard years.

  16. [You have full faith that all will be well. I am a little sceptical that things will cost what they are estimated to cost, that the public will take it up at the rates needed, and that there will be nothing better in a decade (who knows, there may be a new technology that completely supercedes the NBN and perhaps everyone will go with that- then what?). Call me a sceptic, you just get like that when you have watched a few government budgets blow out a tad…]

    It can cost 2, 3 even 5 times as much and it will still be one of the biggest and most important infrastructure projects in this country for decades to come. It will spur amazing new business, service and scientific opportunities, and goes beyond how fast you can watch movies at home.

    For example:

    [$1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core cluster built on Amazon EC2 cloud]

    or

    [Gamers discover protein structure that could help in war on HIV]

    I don’t think most here, including yourself, understand the national benefits this level of connected computers will bring

  17. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:13 pm | Permalink
    Call me a sceptic…

    Your a sceptic.]

    OK, lets try this one then:

    Call me a genius…

    😉

  18. [If Evan truly was a Labor person – as he has always claimed to be (as opposed to just a Rudd fan) – then he would still be backing the “team”, regardless of who is leading it.

    The fact that he continually posts anti-Labor articles or makes anti-Labor – as well as anti-Gillard – comments shows me he is no Labor voter.]

    Evan was posting here for four years before it occurred to anyone to make this kind of complaint. If this amounted to an intensive smokescreen exercise for his current attitude, I’m inclined to reward him for all the hard work he’s put in even if he is being a “concern troll”.

  19. SHY:

    [Economic status does not prevent you from needing to seek asylum. Wealth has little to do with persecution.]

    Maybe, but wealth does have a LOT to do with whether you rot in a camp in Malaysia, or can afford to rent a boat from a people smuggler and bypass the common herd.

    I’ve changed my mind over the past few years: we’re being exploited and conned by many of the boat people.

    I realise there must be still many deserving cases among them, but the fact is they have jumped the queue, and there IS a queue… ask the 80,000 refugee applicants in Malaysia wgo can’t afford the price of passage for its location.

    The Refugee Convention is based on an anachronistic “land border” model devised to deal with continental European refugees of the 1950s (i.e. “displaced persons”), not a dotted line 500 kilometres out to sea.

    * Inside Indonesian waters we can’t touch them.

    * If we rotate the boats 180 degrees on the high seas, it’s piracy (and Indonesia won’t accept them anyway).

    * If we turn the boats back at Ashmore Reef or XI, then we’re breaching our international obligations.

    Australia cannot win in this game. We need to either change the rules, or play a different game.

    For every person who joins the back of the queue in Malaysia (like 80,000 others.. it’s not as if they’re any worse off than them), we take 5 bona fide, checked-out, genuine refugees.

    Why are the Greens favouring the relatively wealthy refugee class, while abandoning the poorest, and perhaps most deserving?

    That’s what I would like to know.

  20. Mod lib shall you return then i doubt it

    you say some very nasty things you do , yo only come to look at polls you want to return after the elction seem to be you only have one thing on your mind and that is sarcasim and gotcha

    more karma to you

    you are the main reason i dont bother being here i cannot stand liberals yes but at least blackspur is a gentleman

  21. Just for the record, I couldn’t care less what Evan’s opinions are. He is entitled to believe whatever he wants. It’s just his tedious MO of instigating, then playing victim is getting really annoying.

  22. [William Bowe

    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    If Evan truly was a Labor person – as he has always claimed to be (as opposed to just a Rudd fan) – then he would still be backing the “team”, regardless of who is leading it.

    The fact that he continually posts anti-Labor articles or makes anti-Labor – as well as anti-Gillard – comments shows me he is no Labor voter.

    Evan was posting here for four years before it occurred to anyone to make this kind of complaint. If this amounted to an intensive smokescreen exercise for his current attitude, I’m inclined to reward him for all the hard work he’s put in even if he is being a “concern troll”.
    ]

    His Concern Trolliing commenced ther day after Gillard became PM.

  23. Rua

    There are not a huge number of federal Labor seats to start with – but losing 5 to hold only 1 or 2 out of 29 does not make for a Labor triumph.

  24. [Why don’t the Liberal Party, The National Party, The Liberal National Party and the Country Liberal Party just merge and stop playing silly games with our electoral system?]

    agree

    [At least Labor and the Greens have two different platforms and vote differently from each other at times.]

    labor is welded to the greens, and the greens are free agents. it is a nice relationship labor has got it self into.

  25. [You had better not be calling My Say a liar, you Tory scumbag.]

    Pufffyyyyyyyyyyyyy, please insult Glen’s intelligence. he aint got much left

  26. [If Evan truly was a Labor person – as he has always claimed to be (as opposed to just a Rudd fan) – then he would still be backing the “team”, regardless of who is leading it.]

    So tell me Danny if Rudd resumed the leadership next week would you accept that?

  27. [140

    Gary Sparrow

    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    I am very much in the ‘pox on both their houses’ view at present.

    Me too.
    ]

    Bullbutter.

    Then why do you post Liberal Psarty talking points and defend the party ?

  28. William: to be perfectly honest, despite at least lurking on this site for all that time I must say I can barely remember anything that Evan said before he started on this rabid anti-Gillard stuff.

    You might be right but I guess the fact that he blended into the woodwork before he came exploding out in such a manner might actually support my hypothesis that he is merely a Rudd fan, rather than a true Labor voter. 4 years ago is roughly when Rudd took over the Labor leadership after all …

    But feel free to slap me down if you think I’m wrong. It’s your site 😉

  29. Rule number two for any lawyer is to avoid conflicts be they:

    (a) between clients; or
    (b) between you as lawyer and you as person.

  30. [ William Bowe
    Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    William outed evan as a concern troll a few months ago.

    I did? ]

    Actually this is what you said –

    [ William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, August 20, 2011 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    Evan on the other hand has had occasion to make comments designed purely to aggravate, which had no such redeeming virtues.

    When he’s done so, I’ve told him he was being a troll. And if he did it with anything like the same frequency that Frank does, he would be banned permanently.
    ]

  31. [So tell me Danny if Rudd resumed the leadership next week would you accept that?]

    Yes, I would. I could care less who leads a party, I am more interested in policy and passing legislation.

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