Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 58-42, although this stability is the result of a correction in the respondent-allocated preference flow after a worst-ever result for Labor last time. On other measures, Labor has in fact gone slightly backwards. Their primary vote is down half a point to 32 per cent with the Coalition up half a point to 48 per cent and the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 11 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party lead when preferences are distributed in accordance with the result of 2010 election has widened from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from combined sample of 1990.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,755 comments on “Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  3. [Nauru signing the UN refugee convention isn’t good news for Gillard/Bowen’s Malaysian Solution.]
    Gloat, gloat, gloat wringing of hands and big smile.

  6. [Nauru signing the UN refugee convention isn’t good news for Gillard/Bowen’s Malaysian Solution.]

    Why? They signed 3 months ago.

  8. [poroti
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 5:15 pm | Permalink
    Boerwar

    [Should we get the kangaroo off our national crest and replace it with a hamster rampant?

    How about this cute little marsupial,twelve hours of sex and then carks it ?]

    http://rainforest-australia.com/Yellow-footed_Antechinus.htm

    At my age, I’m sure the same thing would happen to be were I to attempt such a foolish feat. In fact, I doubt I’d make half-time.

    Still, good suggestion for the National Coat of Arms.

    Somehow appropriate for a nation apparently intent on faarking itself to oblivion with beat-ups and bloviated nionsense about everything from the carbon pricing scheme to refugees.

  9. TLM

    [Nauru signing the UN refugee convention isn’t good news for Gillard/Bowen’s Malaysian Solution.]

    Fair suck of the sauce bottle*. What has Nauru got to do with Malaysia? Have a look at Google Earth. Nauru is a bloody long way away from anything else in the known universe.

    *Would you trust as prime minister anyone who comes up with ‘fair suck of the sauce bottle’?

    OTOH, Malaysia is where it is at when it is not at the High Court.

  10. Gary……….I’d support 100% onshore processing, with strict health/security checks & instant deportation of those who are found not to genuine refugees.
    Here’s one way for Julia to boost her popularity, or something an alternative Labor leader could adopt.
    I don’t think that Malaysia nor Nauru or Manus Island are viable solutions.

  17. [Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    Ratings for last night’s JUNIOR MASTERCHEF(featuring the PM):
    National audience of 1.1 million.
    ]

    Glen Jnr.

    She wasn’t ON Jnr Masterschef last night.

    And I watched the program – did you ?

  18. [Stress would have precipitated the acute anxiety-depression episode.]

    So admit for observation. To make the trip to the nutjob ward accompanied by hospital security is a different kettle of fish.

    Unless she tried self harm, suicide or similar why admit to a psych ward? SOmething does not add up.

    Not saying her HSU stuff is wrong, just the Hospital stuff.

  19. Centrebet odds for who’ll lead Labor to the next election:
    [GILLARD, Julia (ALP) 2.30
    RUDD, Kevin (ALP) 3.50
    ANY CANDIDATE NOT LISTED 4.25
    SMITH, Stephen (ALP) 5.25
    SHORTEN, Bill (ALP) 6.00
    COMBET, Greg (ALP) 13.00
    BOWEN, Chris (ALP) 41.00
    SWAN, Wayne (ALP) 61.00
    ROXON, Nicola (ALP) 126.00
    ALBANESE, Anthony (ALP) 161.00
    ELLIS, Kate (ALP) 161.00 ]

  21. confessions

    cf Mr Coorey. Aw rats. Goose/Gander. Whatever I said about Ms Grattan applies to Mr Coorey.

    It was interesting to see SkyNews pretending that they had done nothing untoward.

    The phrase ‘sh*t eating grin’ came to mind. Still they are so far into the porkies that the AFL episode was only unusual in the way that Mr Demetriou rubbed their faces in it.

  23. Evan is PB’S very own Samantha Maiden – rush in to print bulldust before checking the facts if the story siuts the agenda.

  24. ru

    [So admit for observation. To make the trip to the nutjob ward accompanied by hospital security is a different kettle of fish.]

    If you are admitted for observation, you go to the psych ward. The other wards are not set up for that kind of care. Not all psych patients need security, only those under detention orders.

  25. Diogenes @ 2679

    Why is it that conventional usage would say, as GG did ‘in a psych ward’ whereas you medicos say ‘on a psych ward’?

  26. Sorry if this offends anyone but Ms Jackson is full of it.

    This whole sorry saga is, and has been for years, nothing more than a internal power struggle.

    Who knows, might be a few boxes of documents floating around re Ms Jackson.

    Just saying.

  27. [It was interesting to see SkyNews pretending that they had done nothing untoward. ]

    The ABC is having similar epiphanies on its radio news broadcasts.

    If only someone had thought to check with the AFL first!

  30. A question to put the pokies issues is some context – in particular where pokies are located.

    NSW – Clubs, pubs, casino
    Vic – Pubs, casino
    Qld -?
    SA -?
    Tas – Casinos, ?
    WA – Casino
    NT – ?

    I would be grateful if people can fill in the blanks above.

  32. [If you are admitted for observation, you go to the psych ward. The other wards are not set up for that kind of care. Not all psych patients need security, only those under detention orders.]

    Speaking from experience, you are wRONg, yet again.

  34. Pegasus @2713

    Thanks for that link I have absolutely no faith in Howes but have a lot of time for John Watkins. He is an honest broker and is blessed with a lovely manner. He will be a great addition to any ALP “think tank”.

    The “McKell institute” is a great idea he was a great man.

  36. [ruawake

    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    If you are admitted for observation, you go to the psych ward. The other wards are not set up for that kind of care. Not all psych patients need security, only those under detention orders.

    Speaking from experience, you are wRONg, yet again.
    ]

    There isn’t a call for Tree Surgery in a Psych Ward 🙂

    Batphone please 🙂

  37. Rua

    Thanks. Are the clubs in Qld similar to the NSW ones – anything from local RSL and football clubs to the mega Leagues clubs?

  38. ru

    [If you are admitted for observation, you go to the psych ward. The other wards are not set up for that kind of care. Not all psych patients need security, only those under detention orders.

    Speaking from experience, you are wRONg, yet again.]

    Speaking from having admitted countless people with psych problems, I’ll trust my judgement over your personal experience.

  39. [Thanks. Are the clubs in Qld similar to the NSW ones – anything from local RSL and football clubs to the mega Leagues clubs?]

    Yep, but the RSL clubs have nothing to do with the RSL they just use the name. Surf Clubs are everywhere.

  40. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Ind MP Andrew Wilkie says he was concerned over w/e that AFL had joined anti-#pokies campaign but relieved that’s not the truth.]

    [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Andrew Wilkie ‘I look forward to sitting down with the AFL and having a good long yarn about it [mandatory bet-limits for #pokies].’
    11 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

    [ Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Andrew Wilkie on ”footy tax” ‘that comment by Eddie McGuire is patently ridiculous…it is not a tax’ just a bet-limit scheme for #pokies.
    10 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

  43. [2741

    Fulvio Sammut

    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    So THAT’S what happened to a legion of Labor supporters in SA …
    ]

    Could Dio be SA’s version of Dr George O’Neil? 🙂

  46. Just watched Jenny Macklin’s press conference and I could hardly believe some of the questions. McGuire’s ‘tax’ has taken hold with the journos. One even asked what Macklin was going to do about the higher match ticket costs through the gate because of the fall in pokie revenue. Gawd help us all.

  47. [Should we get the kangaroo off our national crest and replace it with a hamster rampant?]

    If we must have a foreign animal, then why not have a chimp? Everyone loves chimps, right?

    I’d draw the line at having a lemur or dolphin though.

  48. I like the idea of the McKell Institute with John Watkins. I don’t even mind Paul Howes being involved because they need a spread of voices. He is very left on some issues and right on others but Watkins will be a calming influence.

    I also like the email I got from Douggie today about Labor Renewal.

  49. latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Andrew Wilkie says if #pokies bet-limits aren’t introduced then he would possibly be facilitating Abbott into Govt despite his oppn to it

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