Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll shows little change from a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. However, it wouldn’t be a current opinion poll if there wasn’t an unpleasant twist for the government, and this time it’s a new low on the primary vote of 26 per cent, down a point on last time. The Coalition are down as well, by two points to 48 per cent, with the Greens up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have recovered from last week’s disaster, although they are still the second worst she has ever recorded: her approval is up four to 27 per cent and disapproval down seven to 61 per cent. Tony Abbott has failed to hold on to an improvement recorded last time, his approval down five to 34 per cent and disapproval up two to 54 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-34 to 40-35.

This week’s Essential Research shows no change in voting intention, and indeed the series has not recorded any shifts worth mentioning since mid-June. The current scores are 32 per cent Labor, 49 per cent Coalition and 10 per cent Greens, with the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. Further questions find respondents believe to be the world in general and Australia in particular to be less safe than at the time of the September 11 attacks; little change in opinion on the carbon tax, with support down two points since August 1 to 37 per cent and opposition up one to 52 per cent; continuing broad support for the idea when it is specifically tied to compensation and investment in renewable energy; a belief nonetheless that the current scheme has been rushed; and a confused picture on whether governments should control either or both houses of parliament (though it is clear not many would opt for neither).

Further:

• A by-election looms in the north coast NSW state seat of Clarence following the resignation of Nationals MP Steve Cansdell. Cansdell has admitted to signing a false statutory declaration so that a staff member could take the blame for a 2005 speeding offence, which would otherwise have cost him his licence. The last time there was a by-election in the Grafton-based seat, in 1996, the result was a triumph for Labor: months after losing his seat of Richmond at the federal election, Labor candidate won the seat from the Nationals with a swing of 14.0 per cent, adding a handy buffer to what had previously been the one-seat majority of Bob Carr’s government. This time, Labor need not bother fielding a candidate: after winning the seat on Woods’s retirement in 2003, Steve Cansdell consolidated the Nationals’ hold in 2007 before picking up a swing of nearly 20 per cent in the electoral avalanche that was the March state election, pushing his party’s margin above 30 per cent.

• The Prime Minister has flagged support for trials of American-style “primaries” as part of its preselection process for some Coalition-held seats ahead of the next election. In keeping with the recommendation of the post-election review conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner, 20 per cent of a preselection ballot will be determined by those willing to register as official party “supporters”. Sixty per cent will be determined by branch members and 20 per cent by affiliated trade union members. The NSW Labor Party has resolved to follow a more radical path in five electorates before the 2015 state election, with 50 per cent determined by primaries and the remainder determined by branch members and unions. Two such experiments were conducted last year, by the NSW Nationals in Tamworth and Victorian Labor in Kilsyth. The former was a highly successful effort in which 4293 voters participated in the selection of Kevin Andrews, who duly unseated independent incumbent Peter Draper; the latter was something of a damp squib, attracting only 170 participants and selecting an electorate officer who did nothing to hold back the anti-Labor tide. The lesson seems to be that a degree of community enthusiasm is requried for the procedure to be worth the effort. This is least likely to be forthcoming when the party is not a serious prospect of winning the seat, and most likely in areas where the party is traditionally strong. Herein lies the catch: it is not in such areas where party branches are moribund, which is the very ill that primaries presume to cure. All that being so, trials in Coalition-held seats do not seem greatly promising at a time when every indication suggests seats will be swinging the other way.

• Antony Green has published analyses of the New South Wales election in March and the Queensland election of October 2009. Among other things, these tell us that the respective two-party splits were 64.2-35.8 to the Coalition, with exhausted minor party votes accounting for 12.9 per cent of the total formal vote; and 50.5-49.5 to Labor, with 7.7 per cent exhausting. In New South Wales, Labor’s primary vote of 25.6 per cent was its worst result since 1904, while the Coalition’s 51.8 per cent was its best result since 1932.

• The delicate balance in the Northern Territory’s Legislative Assembly shifted a fortnight ago when Alison Anderson, who won her outback seat of MacDonnell as a Labor member in 2008 and quit the party the following year, joined the Country Liberal Party. The numbers in the chamber are now 12 each for the Labor government and CLP opposition, with Nelson independent Gerry Wood continuing to provide Labor with a decisive vote on confidence and supply.

• The New South Wales government has introduced a bill that will ban donations to political parties from organisations of any kind, and include spending by affiliated unions within caps on party spending during election campaigns. One of the Keneally government’s final acts was to set caps of $9.3 million on electoral communications spending by parties and $100,000 for each candidate, and to ban donations from the alcohol, gambling and tobacco sectors.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,432 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [Darn
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 10:32 pm | Permalink
    Who is that gorgeous drop on Q & A who looks vaguely like the former premier of NSW?]

    She is the biggest loser in recent electoral history…

    …but actually surprised me and did quite well methinks.

  2. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 10:24 pm | Permalink
    The difference is Tone isnt the fool Hewson was

    No, he’s the fool Tone is.]

    A very cutting comment William – and a very accurate one.

  4. William,

    Agree. Helle will have to go through the same machinations that Julia Gillard is. Her tenure is no more solid. I have zero idea about Helle’s negotiating abilities.

  7. William

    What do you put down the difference in Essential & Newspoll today? I know Essential is an average of two weeks, but I was wondering about the slightly higher ALP primary. I get the feeling that out of them all when observing their reaction to what might be emotional events in politics, Neilson swings most, Newspoll slightly less, and Essential less again. Is that a fair estimation?

  8. Ducky,

    Carlos Castaneda?

    When these wise-men manage to go seeking their knowledge without a bevy of female followers, I might give them the time of day.

  10. This little black duck: (previous thread @v 10,507:

    [Grandma alert

    I was proven correct.

    I was proved right

    1. “proven” means “tested”
    2. “correct” means “dressed to the occasion” (several meanings). “”right” works]

    More than superciliousness.

    Your’e obviously not as old as you used to be.

  11. Ok, Q&A finished, back to the polls.

    Labor down 1%, Coalition down 2%, Greens up 1%.

    They better support the migration act changes:

    [Screw the Monkey before the Monkey screws you]

  12. [They better support the migration act changes:]

    There is no possible combination of partys and independents to reach a majority in both houses on this issue.

    It just aint gonna happen.

    (Yippee!)

  13. Puff,

    It isn’t Carlos. Just follow and thou shalt be blessed.

    I’m intrigued about mushrooms. They are one of my favourite foods but I do not have the knowledge to pick the wild ones which are even tastier.

  14. So The Greens vote is now a straight 50% of Labor’s vote. Whoever thought that they’d see the day. And Gillard talked today about what the people want on the Malaysian solution, while bringing in the carbon tax. Now that really is hypocrisy.

  17. [Neilson swings most, Newspoll slightly less, and Essential less again. Is that a fair estimation?]

    Yes, because Nielsen is monthly and Newspoll fortnightly, and Essential a rolling average. Essential gives Labor a few points on the primary vote at the expense of the Greens. Recent history suggests it’s Essential that’s getting it right.

  18. a little cheap zoomster…

    …your “cruel to be kind” policy approach causes depression, mental illness, domestic violence, unstable environments for children and suicide as well.

  19. From the previous thread, re: KK

    [Pebbs, could she make you convert?]

    to what? Catholicism?

    If it’s sexuality you refer to, I am actually in the hetero camp as is, and yes, I totally would!

  20. helenk/64

    Bit odd for some people on this forum posting about Labor, but not posting about Coalition, as their primary percentage points are -2, vs Labor -1, greens only gained +1 in this newspoll.

    The only looser in the primary points is Coalition with -2.

    Then you need to get the 2PP preferred, Labor +1, vs Coalition -1.

  22. The very best thing the Greens can do is to support the changes that Gillard is proposing.

    They would be genuinely acting in the very best interests of the people they seek to protect and most importantly of all, they can neutralise the issue.

    Make the tough decision and the right decision or face oblivion at a DD!

  24. [The only looser in the primary points is Coalition with -2.]

    Reality check: ALP 26%, Coalition 48%

    I think they will be able to live with a 2% drop if it leaves them with 48%!!!!

  26. Centre:

    The Greens will never support any bills which ultimately enable offshore processing.

    And I don’t want the Greens to. The coalition should support the amendments, given their divisive rhetoric on the issue of AS over the last 2 years in particular, but also over the last 10. Put their money where their large mouths are.

  27. At least under Labor we haven’t had people sewing their lips together, Australian citizens deported to foreign countries or interned in immigration centres because they had the wrong colour skin or were mentally ill, or families drowning en masse because they couldn’t join their husbands and fathers legally.

  29. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, September 19, 2011 at 10:48 pm | Permalink
    ModLib

    it is a very sad fact that almost any form of refugee policy you care to name has exactly those results.]

    Hence the best approach is a compassionate, mature, fact-based and not fear-based policy.

    We are responsible for our own actions. We are not responsible for what a parent does in Malaysia, putting a child on a boat to Australia, when they think that is actually the best thing for their child in the long term. That is a matter for that parent in their own circumstances. The problem is how dire the situation is in some parts of the world and we shouldn’t respond by making things dire here.

  30. […your “cruel to be kind” policy approach causes depression, mental illness, domestic violence, unstable environments for children and suicide as well.]

    And freedom for an additional 4,000 refugees currently in malaysia.

  31. I seem to recall there was a discussion on PB earlier this year about KKs nationality.
    I thought she was Canadian but some were of the opinion she was American.

    I noticed on Q & A tonight that she stated she is NOT American.

  32. [And freedom for an additional 4,000 refugees currently in malaysia.]

    Which we can easily do (probably 20 times over) quite easily without the associated rendition.

  36. [I noticed on Q & A tonight that she stated she is NOT American.]

    She was from Ohio but is Australian now (thats the point she was making by saying she is not American)

  37. Mod Lib

    we’re not making the situation dire here.

    And we’re improving the situation in Malaysia, which in many cases will remove the necessity for parents to risk their children’s lives.

    The real alternative is an Abbott government, committed to turning boats around in mid ocean, reinstating TPVs which are proven to increase the number of women and children getting into boats, and demonstrating no concern for the conditions of refugees either here or overseas.

    If the Malaysian solution works the way it is meant to, there will be no boats, more refugees being accepted into Australia, and better conditions for ALL refugees in Malaysia.

  40. [Which we can easily do (probably 20 times over) quite easily without the associated rendition.]

    If it weren’t for the deal with Malaysia we’d never have these additional 4,000 people being resettled here.

  45. Regardless of polls, regardless of the humungous anti carbon pricing media campaign, regardless of the shock jocks calling for the PM to be dumped in a wicker basket in the middle of the ocean, regardless of the Opposition lies, misinformation, scare campaigns, regardless…the carbon legislation is going through the legal procedures of the Parliament and regardless of Cori Bernardi (Abbotts destroyer) ring bells of Abbott and Howard and go get Pauline Hanson, regardless of the ignorance…the Carbon pricing legislation will, that is will, be law….in 18 months time the great bringing down of the Gillard Govt by Abbott will be a nothing. Where will Abbott be in 18 months time? One thing is for sure..the Prime Minister of the country will still be Julia Gillard.

  46. [I noticed on Q & A tonight that she stated she is NOT American]

    She’s an Australian and if she wants to identify as such, then so be it.

    If it were somebody from the middle east making the same statement, the more enlightened would be welcoming that statement with open arms, the same should apply to a former American.

  48. [If the Malaysian solution works the way it is meant to, there will be no boats, more refugees being accepted into Australia, and better conditions for ALL refugees in Malaysia.]

    There is no Malaysian solution and I am afraid it will neither stop the boats (it didn’t even while it was still active for gods sake!!!), nor improve conditions for refugees in Malaysia.

    It could have increased the refugee intake to Australia, but hey, we can do that now without hesitation.

    Just to put this in perspective, the increased intake of the Gillard government equates to 1 person per 20 biggest towns and cities in the country per week. One per week. I reckon we can probably cope with that, no?

  49. Gerard Henderson said on Q&A:
    [They (same sex couples) have a right to same sex unions in virtually all the legislations (he meant legislatures) in Australia]
    Well, he is right provided you don’t live in: South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

    The only legislature in Australia that has legislated to support same sex civil unions is the ACT.

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